Around 2085 is where the SPX daily vstop is and where the Aug-Nov trendline sits as support. The SPX has a hard time breaking through that so far today. After a quick visit above 15, the VIX is back below 15. The SPX needs to break through 2085 to see a spike of the VIX to 16. And if it does that the moving average fan for the 10-50MAs in the 2070-2075 looks to be a very hard area to break for this market which continues to receive good news, the 51.2 manufacturing ISM with a stunning 63 prices reading being the latest one and a 45 reading for inventories. We have demand, we don’t have supply folks. Not to mention all kinds of positive merger news – Benioff was just on CNBC talking how hard it is to get a good MA deal because everybody is positioning for growth in 2017.

But even if the VIX spikes to 16, the VX1 and VX2 futures seem to already have this move priced in. VX2 is at 17.85 earlier today about 50 cents above VXV and the VX1 is at 15.85 about a point above VIX at 14.85. So the futures curve remains really elevated compared to the spots and there is only 9 trading days left to expiration.

Volatility Analytics remain strong. VForce is actually in the yellow as the VIX has gone above the VIX 50MA which is only at 14.51 by now. But the VIX 50MA should act as resistance and the reversion to the mean may have run its course for the VIX in the near term. At worst this looks like a move to 16 VIX and the futures have already priced it. So from here on out the surprise is for the VIX to go down and for the VIX futures to go down. And that is XIV bullish.

As such EliteVolatility is at 50% exposure to XIV, but should I see some confirmation that the SPX downdraft is over, will be going full 100% soon. So far what is happening today does not look like a “hanging man” confirmation to me even though it appear so on the surface early on in the day. A green candle today is not a “hanging man” confirmation…