It could be that the VIX and market volatility in the coming days will not be controlled as much by the market moves as it will be by the polling on the Brexit vote. It has been running neck and neck and may continue to do so into June 23rd’s vote.

It is widely believed that the UK’s exit from the EU would cause economic pain and market volatility. The “Leave It” campaign has been gaining in the polls which is possibly the reason for what we’ve seen Friday and today.

This would help explain the explosion we’ve seen in the VIX price which is not matched in its extreme by the indices. SPX is down less than .5%, while VIX has been up over 16% two days in a row. The last time the VIX was up over 16% was on Jan 7th, when SPX dropped 2.37%.