APRIL 17, 2020 ~ JEFFLSMITH ~ EDIT “DEXCOM COVERED CALLS – STOCK RISES $100+ IN A MONTH”

In the past month Dexcom (DXCM) has risen from $190 to over $300. Great news for the stock…..not so good for the APR 17 $260 call. It is discouraging when a stock goes on a huge run and you sold an “at the money” stock option before the rise. The example below is real. $50,505 gain from buying 500 stock on Mar 3 at $206.99. I sold Apr 17 $200 Calls when I bought the stock. The calls have been “rolled up” twice from $200 to $230 and then to $260. Rolling up required an additional $20,728 investment. Instead of a $50,505 gain on the stock the net gain is now $19,180, 40% of what it could have been. 

But here is the good news. In 29 days the CC strategy is returning 19.1%. Annualized 241%. Rather than be remorse about the money I missed…..very happy with the potential return so far. 

Today is decision day as the Apr 17 $260 calls expire. 

Alternatives are:

1. Do nothing. Let the options expire and take profit of $19,810.

2. Roll the options out (buy back Apr 17 $260 Call and sell May 15 $260 Call). Rolling the call out generates a credit of $8 per share or $4,000 (Buy back Apr 17 $260 Call for $49 ($24,500) and sell May 15 $260 for $57 ($28,500). 

3. Roll the options out and up (buy back Apr 17 $260 Call for $49/share and sell May 15 $305 Call for $29/share. Rolling the call out and up requires an investment of $9,500 (500 shares x $49 = ($24,500) – 500 shares X $29 ($14,500). Rolling up and out increases the strike price from $260 to $300 ($40 a share upside). 

On the surface alternative #3 looks like the best idea. The “wild card” is an earnings announcement in early May. Historically Dexcom has shown high volatility around earnings. Stock can go up or down by 10%. Many medical device companies are announcing Q1 earnings and pulling their financial projections for the rest of 2020 until they understand how Covid-19 will impact them. 

The downside of adding more Dexcom investment is further portfolio concentration. Dexcom now represents $156K of $236K (66%) of the portfolio. Not a good situation if things were to go wrong. 

Likely action…..allow at least 1 Apr $260 Call to be “assigned” and sell 100 shares of stock. Roll the remaining 4 Apr $260 Calls up and out….but not all the way to $305. Probably sell $280 or $290 to offer some protection over the earnings call. This takes some of the profit off the table and helps with the portfolio %. Income tax implications are important….but this is long enough.