jsd501 7:21 am on Monday, February 14, 2022

Interest rates,

We have not seen the FED raise interest rates since 2017 so IMHO, this could get ugly. It is not going to be one and done.

Ramie 8:34 am on Monday, February 14, 2022

I think they’re planning 4 increases this year.
- jsd501 8:37 am on Monday, February 14, 2022
  
  That may have been when inflation was transient, LOL.
bikeeagle1 9:03 am on Monday, February 14, 2022

I think that some rate hikes are already priced in. What’s not priced in is if those rate hikes lead to another recession like 2008-2009, or 2000-2002.

I’m sure the Fed is hoping that the supply chain ramps back up again and inflation drops some because of it. They wouldn’t have to raise raise nearly as far or as fast if that happens. If inflation stays persistently above their 2% target, they may have no choice but to keep raising rates until we get a recession. That may be their only way to get inflation under control.
- jsd501 12:30 pm on Monday, February 14, 2022
  
  A thought occurred to me about the QQQ analysis. Did you take into consideration all of the stock splits? Looking at that in 2010 the stock traded at a high of .79 cents and a low of .35 cents and a close at .77 cents split adjusted.
  - bikeeagle1 4:41 pm on Monday, February 14, 2022
    
    I think that portfoliovisualizer.com takes that into account. I’m not 100% sure though.
bikeeagle1 4:43 pm on Monday, February 14, 2022

Here’s an interesting article about rates, QT, and how the Fed might try to control the yield curve. I hope they do tank longer term bonds in an effort to control the yield curve, because that would bring TLT back down to reasonable levels.

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/02/14/now-on-the-feds-table-sell-bonds-outright-to-push-up-long-term-yields-steepen-the-yield-curve-and-get-rid-of-mbs/
- bikeeagle1 4:48 pm on Monday, February 14, 2022
  
  And while Esther George talks about raising yields on the long end of the curve, Bullard talks about raising them on the short end:
  
  https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/bullard-say-the-fed-needs-to-front-load-tightening-because-inflation-is-possibly-accelerating.html