Sold 1 MSFT 08/2/9/2025 470/477.50 Bull Put Spread at $0.13 Credit
Sold 1 MSFT 08/2/9/2025 475/480 Bull Put Spread at $0.13 Credit
Delta -.06

from @OptiontradinIQ
Put Spreads
15 Delta = 15% chance of finishing in-the-money (85% success rate)

30 Delta = 30% chance ITM (70% success rate)

40 Delta = 40% chance ITM (60% success rate)

Higher delta = more premium BUT lower win rate.

The Microsoft example that shocked me:

MSFT 15 Delta Put Spread: (not sure which expiration dates in these examples)
𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘂𝗺: $100
𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: $900
𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻: 11%
𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗲: $25 away from stock price
𝗦𝘂𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲: ~85%
This is my personal sweet spot.

30 Delta Put Spread (Same stock):
𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘂𝗺: $260
𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: $740
𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻: 35%
𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗲: Much closer to stock price
𝗦𝘂𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲: ~70%
Looks amazing, right?
But…. you are much more likely to see this one come under pressure.

40 Delta Put Spread:
𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗶𝘂𝗺: $340
𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸: $660
𝗥𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻: 52%
𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗲: Almost AT the stock price
𝗦𝘂𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲: ~60%
This is basically a coin flip.
Only use this if you are SUPER bullish.