This is probably the first full week I’ve taken off from trading in 10 years. After a quiet Monday and Tuesday, the EM on 6-delta condors was hit Wed-Fri. This seems to be the 2025 norm, whereas the 2023-2024 norm was maybe twice in 2 weeks.

I tested the 6-delta all week and had I stopped out quickly when EM hit I would have been breakeven. However, since upside EM hits are common during Upside Warning, it also seems pullbacks are common on its way up. I think by waiting for pullbacks it would eke out a profit on a week like this.

Downside, however, is different. Premium is much higher on downside EM hit, and the drop can continue in earnest. Frustrating part is, that it almost always will bounce and end the day safely. But the one day it doesn’t can be a very large loss. So I have to consider how to manage downside EM breaks. That happened on Thursday this week and it was a 2.10 payout to close when it hit, but then went much deeper…. but eventually bounced and actually ended the day with new all-time closing high.

I also tested a cheap 60-cent LONG condor… 30-cent spreads on each side, then close the winning side at or above 1.20. Obvious losses on Monday and Tuesday but wins the other three days. Total profit for the week: 95 cents. Possible solution until the market returns to less swingy status. I think days like Monday and Tuesday, after a couple hours of consolidation, can be good for some tight condors.