fuzzballl 4:55 pm on Thursday, November 20, 2025

So, WTF Happened Today!?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-caps-crypto-pumped-dumped-ahead-largest-nov-opex-history

hcgdavis 5:32 pm on Thursday, November 20, 2025

I lucked out, had the day off and all the trades I had adjusted earlier this week went profitable on the move up. I did not have a hunch but have seen this highlight reel before so closed 8 trades all at profits. Plus I had to be somewhere at noon.

Lucky sometime feels better than good! Had I waited until afternoon I would have had to adjust everything again.

Mood has changed, bad news gets sold again. Love 2 way markets and a higher VIX.
- fuzzballl 5:36 pm on Thursday, November 20, 2025
  
  I almost closed all my SPY short puts for 50 percent in a couple days but got sidetracked. Could’ve sold them all again in the afternoon. Get ’em next time! LOL
  
  Interesting thing from that article up above:
  
  Including today (dating back to since 1957) there have been 8 instances where the S&P 500 gaps up more than 1% only to reverse and close in the red.
  
  On the bright side here is S&P 500’s average performance after these 8 instances: 1 day later +233bps, 1 week later +288bps, 1 month later +472bps.
  - hcgdavis 6:24 pm on Thursday, November 20, 2025
    
    Over many years of doing this and perfecting trades, I find I get run over more often to the upside. I still trade relatively neutral but I adjust quicker to the upside. Most of my positions start off with a little negative delta, that way if the market moves down immediately I don’t get burned and gives me some time to adjust the downside.
    
    But upside adjustments I will over shoot with a calendar or diagonal above the market and if it pulls back I can fill in the gap with a calendar, vertical, or butterfly.
    
    The real magic happened for me when I learned how to adjust any trade. Adjusting decreases returns but a positive return of any amount is better than a loss. Not that I don’t have losing trades, but they are now rare and minor. Blowing out accounts is now a distant memory 🙂