Jeff 10:36 am on Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Tags: FuzzyLEAPs ( 35 )

XSP and SPY rolls 1/20/26

#FuzzyLEAPs This will be a boring week waiting for a rebound. Trying to roll to Friday or Monday but only one filled so far. I was waiting for possibility of ending higher but we turned south instead.

Rolled $XSP Jan 20th 692 put to Jan 23rd 692 put, .75 credit

bikeeagle1 12:05 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2026

This goes along with something I’ve been working on. I’m trying to come up with a more systematic way to decide when to roll during the day, based on various market conditions.

I’ll keep mulling it over and post something when I feel like it’s close enough to being halfway useable, and with the idea of being open to any and all group suggestions.

So far, it’s not anything too technical or refined, and it may never be, since it’s impossible to account for everything that can happen during a trading day. I just like the idea of having something to refer to during that decision-making process, even if it’s just in the form of a general guideline.

All of it is probably things you all already do, I just want to have a guide to refer to in the heat of the moment.
- Jeff 12:34 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2026
  
  I would like that too, however it just comes down to the root struggle of trading…. being unable to predict intraday movement. When your roll is deeply ITM or decently OTM, it just 100% depends on whether you can time when the intraday high or low is (respectively). Today I got shellacked by waiting for a second spike higher. We only got the one, after which I should have probably realized the weakness was clear and we would drop.
  - bikeeagle1 1:05 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2026
    
    When your roll is deeply ITM or decently OTM, it just 100% depends on whether you can time when the intraday high or low is (respectively).
    
    Great point! Maybe it’s obvious to more experienced option traders, but I hadn’t connected the dots this way. I need to add to my thought process the idea that the optimum timing of the roll varies depending on whether the put is ITM or OTM.
    
    If the put is OTM, try to roll on a dip.
    
    If the put is ITM, try to roll on a bounce.
    
    Sound right?
    - fuzzballl 2:17 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2026
      
      If the put is OTM, try to roll on a dip.
      
      If the put is ITM, try to roll on a bounce.
      
      Sound right?
      
      That’s it in a nutshell. And don’t forget 2029 (or 2030) is a long way off!
- bikeeagle1 1:25 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2026
  
  Here’s what I have so far. Not sure how to incorporate Jeff’s point about varying the decision depending on whether the put is ITM or OTM.
  
  Of course, all of this is based on trying to make an educated guess about which way the market will move during the day. Different types of news will have to be factored into your personal expectation.
  
  To clarify, ROTB stands for “Roll On The Bounce.”
Jeff 12:39 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2026

Unfortunate decision to wait out the day for something, so pretty awful rolls in both premium and term. A day like today can really slam on the brakes of these trades being a steady income generator. Today will be not only my biggest one day drawdown since starting the strategy, but also my biggest drawdown over any period (in this strategy).

Rolled $XSP Jan 20th 696 puts to Jan 28th 696 puts, .26 credit
Rolled $SPY Jan 20th 692 put to Jan 26th 692 put, .25 credit.
- bikeeagle1 1:07 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2026
  
  Days like this make me think about selling spreads instead of simple puts. The good news is, because I am only selling against half of my LEAPs, the LEAPs were up today about as much as the daily puts were down.
- MikeL 1:09 pm on Tuesday, January 20, 2026
  
  A day like today is not that bad and can be expected. The key is what comes next. Do we recover or go further down. The only thing to do is to keep rolling as long as possible, waiting for recovery.
  As long as VIX is in contango, we are still ok.