Low margin and good liquidity. This is another one I’d like to have a position in all the time for the theta. Figure a good place to start is at the expected move for October.
Sold NFLX OCT 21 2016 85.0/110.0 Strangles @ 3.30
Author Archives: fuzzballl
SRPT gap
Up 4 bucks this morning. Never did get another position set…grrr!
IBB adding
Sold IBB DEC 16 2016 260.0 Put @ 7.70
SVXY puts
Sold SVXY OCT 21 2016 50.0 Put @ 2.50
Sold SVXY DEC 16 2016 40.0 Put @ 2.25
UVXY call spreads
Sold UVXY OCT 21 2016 25.0/35.0 Bear call spread @ 1.55 (high risk!)
Sold UVXY NOV 18 2016 30.0/40.0 Bear call spreads @ 1.15
SPY BeCS
Bought to Close SPY NOV 18 2016 226.0/230.0 Bear call spreads @ .38 (sold for .60)
Just missed getting filled on the put side on Friday. Since that didn’t happen I’m taking off the call side for a decent profit.
TGO update
These daily videos are free…
VIXcontango.com highlights
First, let’s quantify the day yesterday. Yesterday’s nearly 40% jump in the VIX was the 11th biggest VIX daily spike in history. There are 6726 trading days in the VIX so the chance that any given day will be in the Top 11 is 11/6726 or 0.16%. As you can see from the table below 5 of the top 20 biggest daily spikes have happened in 2015 and 2016. There is no other 2 year period with 5 such days in the top 20 – not 2010-11, not 2007-08 and certainly not many before 2007. In fact 14 of the top 20 (70%) are since 2005 when Regulation NMS was passed by the SEC thus giving rise to the High Frequency Traders.
In addition, even though there have been spikes in volatility when the SPX is near an All-Time High, the SPX usually has not lost 50 points in a day this close to an All-Time High. The biggest such day prior to yesterday was -36 points on April 15th in 2013. The other days the SPX lost around -15 points.
Not only was the 50 point loss the biggest this close to an all-time high, but also the drop below the MA50 which is normally a big support level was also rather astounding. There are only 10 instances when the SPX opened above the MA50, dropped below the MA50 and proceeded to lose more than 30 points after that. The average drop through the MA50 is about 7 points with a standard deviation of 10 points. So dropping 36 points below the MA50 is a 3 standard deviation event (3 sigma event or 0.3% occurrence). As you can see most of these have happened during Bear Markets or during some large international crises like in 1997 or in June 2016 (Brexit). For this to happen out of the blue yesterday on no real news is rather astounding.
In fact, the only other day that bears resemblance to this VIX spike is 2/27/2007 which was triggered by a selloff caused by the government of China intervening in the Shanghai market to stop a 10% selloff there.
A Unicorn Day
Yesterday was a day that couldn’t be predicted with any of the usual methods of analysis – fundamental, technical or volatility analysis.
From a fundamental perspective stocks are fully valued, but GAAP earnings are on the way up. Also the US and overall global GDP is on an upswing in Q3. Moderately rising yields in Japan, Europe and the US normally trigger a rotation from expensive defensives to cheaper cyclical sectors. All of these are factors that dampen volatility and make the presence of high volatility days less likely.
From a technical perspective, there was no topping or reversal pattern. Big days like this are preceded by big hesitation, high volume days, some kind of a multi-day topping pattern as well. There are no such patterns to be seen. From support/resistance perspective, we had 3 pretty big support levels at 2160, 2150 and 2135 that should have held but didn’t.
From “trend following” perspective, indeed the Bollinger Bands are tightening and the near-term averages are bunched up, but the slope of these is positive so it is very unlikely for a big down day like this to transpire.
From a “mean reversion” perspective, you really can’t say that yesterday was a “mean reversion” move because the 50MA is the mean. The SPX had mean reverted by going nowhere for 2 months.
From a volatility perspective, volatility has been very calm, I would say too calm, but still this is a 3 sigma event based on the recent volatility profile and 2.5 sigma (2% occurrence) event on a more normal volatility profile. Again something that normally would not happen even if the VIX was in the 15-16 range the day before.
So what was the cause for the selloff yesterday?
I find it hard to believe that a speech by a FED president many people ignore triggered such a massive move. So all of a sudden the market doesn’t listen to Stanley Fischer and Janet Yellen, but it does listen to Eric Rosengren. Really?!? I also don’t really buy the argument that a 0.10% jump in the 10-Year Treasury yield triggered this selloff either. Yields are still at 1.67%, levels the market has traded below in only 143 out 13649 trading days in its history. That would be 99.9895% of the time people bought treasuries at higher yields. The story that you have a bond selloff on the horizon because Japan and Europe think that negative rates are not beneficial is not credible. Central banks may not like negative but they still very much like zero. So rates will go up 25-50% basis points. I am not sure why that would somehow trigger a larger escalation. So forgive me if I don’t think 1.67% 10-Year Treasury yield is a reason for a bond driven stock market selloff. I also don’t buy that North Korea nuclear test is the reason. North Korea has had other such tests, they didn’t trigger large market moves.
The most plausible explanation I have is that the market has traded in that 2160-2190 range for so long that any technical break of these levels will trigger stops, short covering and the algorithmic closing of trades tends to extend the move. What I have a hard time reconciling is that the move would be so extended. Essentially, we got a 1 week worth of selloff in 1 day. The only way I explain the 2.5% drop yesterday and the 5% drop after Brexit is high-frequency traders (HFT) algorithms. Once certain thresholds are broken, they hit kill switches and the liquidity evaporates from the market. For example, the market should’ve rallied at 2160 and 2150 yesterday but after 2150 broke, it was free fall from there.
This is a very disconcerting phenomenon, in my opinion, because it means that high frequency trading hasn’t made the markets more stable. They are more stable until they aren’t. There is a lot of liquidity up to a point and after that liquidity vanishes into thin air. I don’t really know what the fix for that it. So far it seems the SEC and the FED are really behind the ball in regulating the HFTs and making them responsible market participants. Until the FED and the SEC come up with a proper policy for the HFTs, these intraday flash-crashes are something that unfortunately market participants will have to continue to expect. We have had at least 3 of those crashes (Aug 2015, Brexit and yesterday) in a 1 year span – which is kind of amazing. I thought January’s controlled selloff proved that we have put the “flash crashes” behind us but apparently we have not.
Key Market Levels
This September was following the seasonal chart until Friday. Friday was supposed to be a down day and I expected that but it wasn’t supposed to be THAT big of a down day.
I don’t think the selloff that started last Friday will last very long or be very deep. I expect at most a 5-7% drawdown before the election which puts the SPX bottom in the 2035 to 2080 area. This is a typical pre-election drop and given the direction of earnings, with 2017 in mind I think this is an excellent opportunity to buy the dip. If rates are really rising, financials are a good buy here and if rates aren’t rising, what is different than before? Over the next couple of weeks and months, I will be looking to allocate the remaining 50% in the family 401(k) to stocks. If we get to the 2050-2100 area in the SPX, I think this is a really solid area to put money to work for the rest of 2016 and 2017.
SPX will meet serious support at the current 2130 level where the prior ATH was and after that at the 2100 level. The 2100 level where the higher low trendline of February and June is should be tough to overcome. And after that we have the 200MA at 2050 which is a big line in the sand.
Resistance areas on the topside is the 2165 where the 50MA is and 2175 level where the 10-40MAs are.
UVXY call spreads
Filled after the close…
Sold UVXY DEC 16 2016 35.0/45.0 Bear call spreads @ 1.00
These are in an #IRA so I’ll continue adding to this even if it’s in the money. Each spread takes the same margin so might as well get as much as I can for them.
SVXY puts
Added another one 50 cents higher…
Sold 1 SVXY DEC 16 2016 45.0 Put @ 2.55
CMG adjustment
Had a 385/435 strangle for next week. Looked like Ackman had blown it up so I closed the 385 put and sold this week’s 435 and then rolled it to 440.
Long story short…taking stock at 428 basis covering next week’s remaining 435 call.
With portfolio margin I think these expensive stocks are pretty darn good bang for your buck. CMG will require 6400 margin for 100 shares with weekly call premium in the 500-600 range. Thinking just disregard stock basis and hang onto it for a nice weekly dividend. Could own it free and clear eventually.
SVXY puts
Just a starter in the #IRA …
Sold 1 SVXY DEC 16 2016 45.0 Put @ 2.05
RH earnings iron fly
Originally sold 31.5/34.5/34.5/37.5 for today. Sold for 2.30 so max loss of .70. Managed to get the completely in the money call spread closed for 2.73 this morning. Only lost .43 instead of .70. Tried selling some 50 cent puts but couldn’t get a fill. Not worth the risk at this point.
Still a great earnings season! What’s next on the list?
NKE earnings on Sep 27
Putting on a trade way out of my comfort zone but seems reasonable. Goal is to take advantage of IV increase into earnings while offsetting time decay.
Bought to open Sep 30 54.5/58.0 strangle
Sold to open Sep 23 54.5/58 strangle
Plug this into TOS and give it a 14 percent volatility increase into earnings week. Pretty wide breakeven/profit window. If IV increases by more than 14 percent window becomes wider…
RH earnings
Possibly…still watching for now. 3 wide iron fly @ 2.25. Risk 75 to make 225…
TLT…Ramie Whiz combo
Sold TLT OCT 21 2016 133/145 Strangles @ 1.06
CMG….thanks Bill
Had a nice 385/435 strangle for next week that was winding down quite nicely (sold for 5.70). Still looks decent but I’m gonna jump on the bullish Ackman train (gulp!). Closing next week’s put and selling a higher put this week for additional credit. Hoping to get long the stock to turn next week’s call into a covered position…
Bought to Close CMG SEP 16 2016 385.0 Put @ .40
Sold to Open CMG SEP 9 2016 435.0 Put @ 5.20
If this week’s put expires I’ll sell it again next week. If the stock continues up I’ll have to look at rolling the call and continuing to sell aggressive puts to get long. Total premium received so far of 10.90…
SVXY
Bought to Close SVXY SEP 16 2016 50.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 1.20)
SRPT taking risk off
With IV this high seems like news could be coming any day…booking this one.
Bought to Close SRPT SEP 16 2016 12.0/10.0 Bull put spreads @ .12 (sold for .80)
SRPT idea?
Must have an event coming up since IV’s are through the roof. Sept 12/10 BuPS looking good so thinking about reloading something. Unfortunately Oct only goes down to 13 strike. Still…a 13/43 strangle is going for over 4 bucks. I’ve seen Iceman selling some strangles in it. Anybody else trading it?
SPY BeCS
Another new one for me…since my positions are small I think I’m ok with slightly higher commissions vs greater liquidity in SPY. This trade was suggested yesterday at .51 so I guess .60 is ok. Plan is to leg into iron condor at some point.
Sold SPY NOV 18 2016 226/230 Bear call spreads @ .60
GS…not normally my style
Trying to expand my trading horizons with pretty low risk.
Sold GS OCT 7 2016 175.0 Calls @ 1.35
Selling these against Jan 2018 long straddles. At a minimum should be able to sell enough short term calls to cover max loss on the straddles. With delta 80 long calls I can take advantage of any up move.
NUGT experiment
Rolled 18 strike inverted calls out to Sep monthly 18.5 for .15 credit. These are inverted against Oct monthly 26 puts at a 3 to 2 ratio (more calls than puts). Gives overall position right now of a slightly short delta. Small margin required and pretty stable on any big moves.
Goal is to get un-inverted at some point. Still preserving a few K of gains that initially were huge losses with ITM short calls back during the NUGT run from about 50 to 170.
SPX iron fly
Out of 2165/2170/2170/2175 iron fly with .20 loss…half of max loss of .40. All clear for afternoon selloff now! Probably would’ve been worth the .20 risk just to stay in. We’ll see..
SPX earnings trade…LOL
Treating the jobs report as an earnings report. Sold tomorrow’s 2165/2170/2170/2175 iron fly @ 4.60. Risk 40 to make 460…13 point expected move. Low probability….
NUGT adjust
After using weekly call premium to buy in some DITM puts I’ve got room to roll down and add a contract to get a better lowering of the strike. Taking advantage of the little pop today.
Rolled Sep 31 and 32 puts to Oct 26 puts at 2/3 ratio getting 1.50 credit. (bought 2 and sold 3). This increases my max loss if NUGT goes to zero tomorrow but I’m planning on buying those 2 extra ones back in at some point. I’ll slightly over write the calls for the next few weeks…
TSLA…going down in a ball of flames
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/92dd9cd24d6444c4a93855dd25e6d0c1/explosion-rocks-spacex-launch-site-florida-during-test
WYNN iron condor
Here ya go Mort…even though I’m not 100 percent comfortable with it, it would cover another month of fees. LOL Keeping her on a tight leash. 200ma is my line in the sand.
Sold WYNN Sep 30 2016 75/80/103/108 iron condors @ .88
IBB…starting a new position
Jumping back in after being out a few months… #IRA
Sold IBB Dec 16 2016 250 Put @ 5.70
GDX…wow
Just for fun bought an oversize amount of this week’s 25 puts for .10 this morning. Up 150 percent so far…not sure how far to push this one. Maybe through the jobs report?
NUGT…rolling and getting smaller
Rolled this week’s short calls down from 20 to 19 for 1.00 credit. Used proceeds to buy back 28, 31, 32 puts that were DITM. Still preserving premium on all the original rolls. So far so good…still concerned a good jobs number on Friday will cause a further drop.
SPX…my first Wed expiration
Bought to Close SPX AUG 31 2016 2190/2195 Bear call spreads @ .20 (sold 24 hours ago for 1.05)
OMM…I’m moving on
With mixed emotions I’ll be letting my OMM subscription expire in October. Been there since the beginning but not really getting much value out of it anymore. Dan’s trades don’t really fit my style and I was real good at only taking the losers…LOL. I’ll be taking my educational dollars elsewhere simply for a fresh look at option selling.
I’ve watched this guy for awhile and have done a couple trials over the years. He was running an awesome special last week so I signed on for a year. He’s a little more aggressive so I’ll be treading lightly until I get a feel but you can’t argue with his performance. Various portfolios up 50-75 percent YTD. If you see me posting an odd looking trade (for me) you can probably guess where it came from…LOL
NUGT…still reducing size
Using weekly call premium to buy back some DITM puts. By using weekly call sales to buy these back in I’m able to preserve all the premium received over the last few weeks on the put sales and rolls. Would love to see this thing grind around in this area for a month or so.
Bought to Close NUGT SEP 16 2016 28.0 Put @ 7.00
Bought to Close NUGT SEP 16 2016 31.0 Put @ 9.80
NUGT….whew!
Can’t believe how lucky I’m getting here. Right at the close yesterday sold a boatload (an NS term…LOL) of 22 strike calls for today @ 1.05. Only in my wildest dreams would I think that 22 would be anywhere close after the “Uncle Janet piehole situation”. Apparently J-hole is a no go but the market is still concerned keeping gold confused. I’m looking to roll staying aggressive with the 22 strike to protect my Sep ITM puts. Building a nice cash cushion here to decide what to do with the puts at Sep expiration.
NUGT inversion update
Sorry about another update…LOL Skip to the next post if you’re sick of these. 🙂 🙂
OK…here we go. Have to admit I wasn’t expecting a 40 percent drop in a week (although I knew it was possible) but here we are. The price fell through my entire inverted and regular strangles obviously putting the puts deep underwater. Due to the upcoming “Uncle Janet piehole situation” I was reluctant to roll down any calls to help with the long deltas so the calls are basically all gone now. I’ll wait for tomorrow and hope for a bounce to sell calls but in the mean time I bought some GDX puts in case the “J-Hole is a go”…LOL
Also today to help a little with the deltas and to simplify things I rolled all the puts out and slightly down so they are all in the same month. (Sep monthly for now). Paid a little debit but that can come out of this week’s call profits.
So currently: (all split adjusted)
Sep 28 puts @ 2.20
Sep 31 puts @ 3.70
Sep 32 puts @ 6.65
Obviously DITM but breakeven is a little lower. My goal now is to keep the premium received so far while getting these puts to a more reasonable level. So what to do? I’ll keep selling the weekly premium but what should I do with it?
1. Pocket it and keep rolling the puts each month? That’s risky the way this thing can tank.
2. Use the premium to roll the puts down each week? Seems reasonable especially if I take them out to October.
3. Use the premium to buy back some puts to reduce size? A possibility for sure.
4. Use one week’s worth of premium and buy some put spreads for protection? Maybe…
5. Close it all for a manageable loss? That would be a lot of work down the drain…LOL
Whaddya guys think? Lesson learned so far is to be careful with the depth of your inversion…although NUGT could just as easily have been at 200 yesterday instead of 100 so it’s toss up there. Sure has been an interesting experiment…so far!
NUGT…rumor
Heard they were announcing a reverse split even before the forward split happens…LOL! Looks like massive panic selling setting in. Crazy!
CMG…taking a shot
Talked about doing this last week and trading it similar to NUGT. Wish I would’ve so jumping in now. Weekly options with decent premium. Staying small and slightly closer to the money and adjusting if needed. Skewing this starter slightly to the upside.
Sold 1 CMG SEP 16 2016 385/435 Strangle @ 5.68
NUGT straddle
Was sitting on a 160/160 straddle for this Friday. Sure looks like the market is pricing in a Sep. rate hike. Who woulda thought that a quarter point could devastate the miners…LOL. I would normally be rolling calls down but with Janet showing up Friday I’m gonna wait. If no Sep. hike will we see a bounce?
Bought to Close NUGT AUG 26 2016 160.0 Call @ .20 (part of 160 straddle @ 18.15)
Bounce or not, I’ll eventually roll the call out a couple weeks and down as far as I can for even…then sell whatever call(s) that will bring in 8-10 dollars. For now it’s looking like the new position will be somewhere around Sep 9th 155/130 inverted @ 27.00
The experiment continues…occasional little drawdowns but cash balance consistently increasing…
BBY…thanks to the “Earnings Slayer”
Thanks Tony V over at tastytrade and thanks rknight52 for getting it on my radar yeterday!
Closed my 31/33.5/35 super bull for 1.44. Got nearly the whole thing already. NIce surprise this morning since I had a few more than one!…LOL
🙂 🙂
NUGT roll
Rolled Sep monthly 185 calls down to 170 for 2.50 credit.
New position is now 140/170 strangle @ 11.10
FEYE covered calls
Sold FEYE Sep 16 2016 17.0 Calls @ 0.31
It’s that time again…Mizzou
Starting the big move today for the sophomore year. I’ll be in and out…have a great weekend everyone!
NUGT…amazing
Oct monthly 70/260 strangle going for 8.20…wow. That’s the high and low strikes.
NUGT roll
Rolled Aug 26 170 call down to 160 for 3.00 credit (now 160/160 straddle @ 18.15) One of these will go away then we roll and adjust
Rolled Sep 2 175 call down to 160 for 4.50 credit (now 160/170 inverted @ 36.70) Should be a lot of maneuvering room with this one…
NUGT inversion roll
Position was 180/155 inverted @ 28.70 for this Friday. Using the wild swing today and rolling out 2 weeks and actually getting un-inverted…(is that a word? LOL!)
Closed call side earlier on the selloff and re-sold out in Sep 2nd expiration on the bounce.
Sold NUGT SEP 2 2016 175.0 Call @ 7.00
Rolled 180 put to Sep 2 2016 170 put @ even.
All factored in the new position is now a normal 170/175 strangle for a nice 32.20 premium captured so far. I’ll wait and look to adjust later on. A single strangle next week also that I’ll look to roll out 2 weeks when (if) the time comes. Seems to be working nicely on the staggered 2 week roll schedule.
NUGT…back in on the call side
Not counting the scalp on the calls this morning…I’ll book those.
Sold NUGT AUG 26 2016 170.0 Call @ 5.00
Paired with 160 put for 15.15 total premium on the strangle…
XIV SVXY VIX…
Volatility dropping…did they leak the “no hike” decision? LOL…they wouldn’t do that!
Sosnoff said something interesting…
The other day he talked about how there are certain tickers that he ALWAYS has a position in. Said he makes the bulk of his money carrying these all the time and constantly adjusting and collecting theta. Most of the ones he mentioned were all the usual suspects….big and liquid.
Seemed like an interesting idea to me. That’s almost how I’ve been trading NUGT lately. Not so worried about selling and expiring….trading it for bigger premium with smaller positions and just planning on doing that indefinitely…(as long as premium stays elevated).
With all this in mind, I’d like to try it in a regular stock. Looking at CMG since it’s not crazy expensive (see PCLN) and offers weeklies. What do you guys think of his theory?
NUGT getting perky?
First multiple time frame buy signal of the day…
NUGT calls
KInda risky but taking advantage of the drop to close some calls sides of strangles. I’ll re-sell ’em at some point but this is too nice a selloff not to do something…
Bought to Close NUGT AUG 19 2016 155.0 Call @ 3.50 (I’ll re-sell it out in Sep when I roll inverted put side)
Bought to Close NUGT AUG 26 2016 180.0 Call @ 2.75 (sold yesterday for 6.40)
NUGT….gotta love this thing!
Any chance it closes flat on the day? Dan at OMM says ain’t no way, not even a possibility rates get raised. Gonna be fun to watch!
NUGT inversion for this week
180/155 inverted strangle for Friday…There’s only about 4 dollars of premium left in it. Wondering how far to push my luck before (or if) rolling. Since both sides are in the money I may do something a little sooner. These would be perfect for someone to hit me with an early exercise. On the bright side the entire position is sitting at breakeven.
Looking back this thing started out around 80/120. Rolled both sides up for awhile staying fairly even each roll. Finally got to the point where premium couldn’t keep up with roll cost and had to invert. So far so good. I’m gonna be stubborn and keep the trade going and try to “un-invert” it eventually…LOL
EDIT…the advantages of staying small allows this in an account my size. Thanks to TT for beating that into my head over and over!
NUGT…next week again
Little bounce there and needing some short deltas…gets all the strangles balanced again.
Sold NUGT AUG 26 2016 180.0 Call @ 6.40
NUGT…next week
Sold NUGT AUG 26 2016 190.0 Call @ 6.00
Paired with 160 put…position is now 160/190 strangle @ 12.50.
A little narrower than I would like but the put side was a reverse roll from last week. Debating whether to leave it by itself but decided what the neck…pair it up and see what happens.
NUGT inversion experiment update
What started out as a strangle with the short call getting killed this thing still has a chance. Went further inverted today. Position was next week’s 165/155 inverted strangle @ 21.70 credit. Rolled the 165 put up to 180 put for another 7.00 credit.
Position is now 180/155 inverted @ 28.70. As long as the credit received is more than the inverted width it will make money. Goal is to still have the stock price be inside the strangle at expiration. Pay the width of the strangle for the position to go away and keep the difference. If nothing else it has a lot better chance than if I would’ve let the original 100 put (or whatever it was…don’t remeber) just sit there.
NUGT…this week’s strangle
Was sitting on a 155/170 strangle for this week. 155 put almost worthless so reverse rolling the 170 call out 2 weeks to the put side.
Bought NUGT AUG 12 2016 170.0 Call @ 9.75
Sold NUGT AUG 26 2016 160.0 Put @ 9.15
Paid .60 debit but that’s ok…I’ll look to sell the call side at some point…or maybe not at all and just reduce my size a little.
SHAK earnings
Haven’t decided yet if I’ll do it. Iron fly 2.5 wide for 1.90. Risk 60 to make 190. MMM of 2.75. Could also widen to 3 for not much more risk…
/ES eminis hedge
Yesterday:
SOLD 2 Sep futures @ 2176.75
SOLD 2 Aug 17 2170 puts @ 9.75
Bought 4 Aug 17 2195 calls @ 4.45
After looking a lot closer at this last night I decided the max loss wasn’t worth the potential gain so closed it all this morning for a scratch. Watching TT last night a couple guys on there had what I felt was a much better hedge. Lower cost and higher reward than what I was trying. They were going out to Sep and just buying VIX 15/20 call spreads. Only paying about 85 cents so much better R/R than my futures trade.
I haven’t bought those yet but might if we get a pullback in VIX closer to 11…
DIS KORS YELP earnings
DIS 93.5/96/96/98.5 iron flies @ 1.93 (closed for 1.20)
KORS 46.5/50/50/53.5 iron fly @ 2.70 (closed for 1.55)
YELP 29.5/32.5/32.5/35.5 iron flies @ 2.39
YELP outside the move so waiting a little on it. Could get out at .50 loss right now. Since max loss is only .61 I’ll watch it awhile. Like to get out at a scratch but even if taking max loss the 3 trades combined are profitable. Could possibly roll the calls or take short position in the stock while waiting for reality to set in for YELP…LOL
Earnings…can we predict the move?
Interesting…
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_recaps/2016-08-09/episodes/reversals-after-earnings-08-09-2016
KORS anyone?
By the way…I’ve been a long time supporter of the hometown brewery but recently switched to the silver bullets…so gotta do this. Just one fly…
Sold this week’s 46.5/50/50/53.5 iron fly @ 2.70
Risk 80 to make 270 and once again needing a slightly less than MMM…
DIS earnings
Was just getting ready to adjust the strikes up a half point when it filled…
Sold this week’s 93.5/96/96/98.5 iron flies @ 1.93
Risk 57 to make 193. MMM is currently 2.94 so need something slightly less than that…
YELP earnings
Sold this week’s 29.5/32.5/32.5/35.5 iron flies @ 2.39
Risk 61 to make 239. MMM is currently 3.82 so need something slightly less than that…
Eminis…transgender trade?
Sorry about the National Enquirer headline…
What I meant to say is I’m taking an Emini trade where I won’t really care which way it goes…LOL It’s in a squeeze but hard to say which way it will go so taking a shot here.
SOLD 2 Sep futures @ 2176.75
SOLD 2 Aug 17 2170 puts @ 9.75
Bought 4 Aug 17 2195 calls @ 4.45
Makes money on any down move and makes money on anything above 2195…unless it gets there quickly before the calls decay. Then call side could make money slightly lower. It’s a loser on anything between 2177 and 2195. If it settles in up in that range I could roll the put side up for a little extra premium.
NUGT…back on track
Sold NUGT AUG 12 2016 170.0 Call @ 3.00
Paired with this week’s 155 put. Back in the routine now…selling a fairly aggressive strangle in this week and next week. That allows a 2 week rollout of the current week if needed and still collecting big theta while only requiring small margin.
VXX reverse split
Posted this last week. Maybe effective after the close today? Not seeing it yet.
VXX…destiny
http://sixfigureinvesting.com/2013/08/next-vxx-reverse-split/
PCLN…can’t win ’em all (unfortunately)
Yesterday:
Sold weekly PCLN 1305/1355/1355/1405 iron fly @ 42.00. Risking 8 to make 42
Obviously stock blasted through the entire call side so by the close today that side would be at full 50 loss unless there is a massive pullback. At the open today my goal was to close that side for anything less than 50. Anything less than 50 would reduce max loss by that amount. Managed to close the call side for 48.50, reducing max loss down to 6.50. Then, sold a weekly 1405 put for 2.00. Watching that now…if it expires max loss would then be reduced to 4.50. Not bad for an awful trade. Combined with all the other earnings plays so far it’s been a banner earnings season.
I’m now a PCLN bull for the day! LOL
PCLN…pushing my luck
It’s been a record setting earnings season so I’m pushing it one more time…
Sold weekly PCLN 1305/1355/1355/1405 iron fly @ 42.00. Risking 800 to make 4200. Short strikes centered at about the mid point of today’s range. MMM has dropped a little today so selling just inside that. 50 wide with a 66 move priced in. Win or lose I’ll be smiling!
Also…protective wings at a cluster of moving averages on the downside and the year high on the upside. Still, all bets are off with this thing! Could go anywhere…
Bill Gross…funny!
Saw this on Seeking Alpha:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/03/investing-in-gold-big-players-put-money-into-the-precious-metal.html
Guess it’s time to sell gold if his track record is any indication. LMAO!!
http://www.aol.com/article/2009/02/26/bill-gross-the-747-billion-bond-man-declares-the-death-of-equ/1472266/
Notice the date he declared equities dead…about a week before the bottom…hahaha!
NUGT inversion
As an experiment I went inverted on my NUGT August monthly position a few days ago. Can’t remember what it started out as but I’ve been rolling the put side up all along against a short 155 call. Finally took the inverted plunge just to see how it works.
Position is now 165put/155call inverted strangle for net premium of 21.70. I can see a few different scenarios so here’s what I’m considering:
1. Stock closes outside the strangle then one side will expire. At that point I’ll roll the other side up or down as far as I can for even and then sell the other side. Hopefully can get the entire thing “un-inverted” and have credit jacked up close to 30.
2. If the stock closes in between the strikes I’ll let the position go for 10 bucks and pocket the remaining 11.70 that I’ve already collected.
3. Possibly close it at any point in time for something less than 21.70 and then reload a new strangle somewhere else.
PCLN…still debating
After the selling today MMM is down to 67 dollars. I’m looking at something like this:
Weekly 1300/1350/1350/1400 @ 43.00 Risking 700 to make 4300. 50 wide with a 67 move so not sure. Could widen it for better odds but a little higher max loss. No position yet…
REGN put spread
Sold REGN SEP 16 2016 400/375 Bull put spread @ 5.20
Went with the spread for this reason:
A series of proposals from the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services related to reimbursements could lead doctors to favor the use of rival eye drugs Avastin and Lucentis, made by Roche Holding AG, Regeneron executives said on a post-earnings conference call.
No matter what happens my worse case scenario is getting the stock 19.80 below current price. Let’s say this passes and REGN drops to 200. With the put spread I’d close the long put at a big gain and take the stock at a big loss but net basis in the stock would only be 219.80. If it doesn’t tank then it’s a nice return.
NUGT mining
Bought to Close NUGT AUG 5 2016 155.0 Put @ .70 (sold for 5.40 after multiple roll ups to capture additional premium)
Options Bistro 