falling knife over trade

STO 3 next week GILD 66.5 puts at 0.65. Looks like it found a bottom at 66 and my dynamic trend wave indicator (one of the few tools I bought) is on a 4 hour buy signal which is usually good for a 1 week trade.

Bunch of trades

Rolled AAL 41.5 puts this week to May 12 for .81 credit
BTC IWM 135 puts this week for 0.02 sold for .77
STO EXPE May 129 May puts for 1.25
Rolled EXPE this week 125 puts to May 5 129 puts for 0.78 credit (market makers being greedy with earnings this week)
These are all retirement accounts so small size but still $1225 profit for the week and I will take it.

Vix is too low to sell indexes so sticking with individual names with better volatility and premiums. Apparently the markets only go up anymore.

Efficiency of capital

I did a mini study last year that was an extension of some of the tastytrade strangle work. I was trying to figure out what was the most efficient use of capital on both a percentage basis and ROC. I only did it with a few tickers and specifically was looking at use of margin and buying power reduction selling various options. I looked at uso, spy, dia, qqq, gld, and iwm against the futures or the index. It was fairly extensive so to keep it simple will just show /es/spy/spx. Here is the quick summary and it was true for the others with the exception of qqq, the futures options were not liquid enough in that.

Selling delta 8 options 45 DTE. Keep in mind spy was under 200 and the vix was around 14-15 so the #s are different today.
I looked at how much money it would require to actually cover the position or at least avoid a margin call.
SPY needs about $6000 per contract to cover a large move without a margin call
SPX needs about $40,000 per contract to cover
/ES needs about $6000 per contract to cover
What this means. From a percentage standpoint SPY actually wins but from a ROC /ES is the more efficient product because you are selling higher premiums. From a strangle standpoint SPX is the worst and tastytrade also did a study that found spy is more efficient than spx because of the tighter bid/ask spreads. However, there is a tax advantage and volume advantage to spx or /es.

What I take from this is if you have a smaller account stick with spy, medium account move up to /es and if you have a private jet trade spx or /es.
For those that do not know the ratio 10 SPY = 1 SPX = 2 /ES contracts.

Interestingly the most efficient market from a percentage basis was /CL oil futures requiring only about $4000 per contract. Just watch the leverage on any of them, that is the only thing that has ever cost me on trades gone bad. Now I always keep enough cash to cover the position in a black swan event.

Hope that helps, cheers, Chris

Trading brains

So it looks like most of the traders on this site have had similar trading journey’s. Start out trading some funds and stocks when younger. Realize it is a 50-50 game most of the time. Then try to trade directionally but really hard to predict the future all the time. Then get into options for the leverage and income and then finally realize the house always wins and selling options is how the professionals make big and steady money. Sure, may have to pay out the occasional lottery ticket but in the long run the casino/insurance company always wins. Good to be on the right side of the trade and glad to be here!! I will be picking some of your brains on these volatility trades.

I was thinking about selling…

I was thinking about selling some spy or /es strangles but with the vix back down to 11 will focus on individual names that have good vol and premiums.

My short list I watch every week is TSO, HAL, EOG, FSLR (falling knife), EXPE, DAL, AAL, WDC, SWKS, FB, BX, GS, GM (falling knife), JPM, GILD (falling knife) and CELG. Just watch the earnings dates, a lot of them are next week. You can typically make 1.00 several strikes OTM with these with only 1 week out.

market makes being greedy this…

market makes being greedy this morning with the pop in the market, the WDC roll went through for .91.

Rolling WDC 75 puts this…

Rolling WDC 75 puts this week to May 26 77.5 puts for credit of around .95
They were originally sold for 1.20 and are down to .15-.17. Only 3 contracts but part of a ladder rolling for 4 weeks.

Jade lizards for IRAs

A true jade lizard should have no upside risk. Could not do that with my WDC because I was at the top of the chain and the strikes were 2.5 wide. However, a good alternative to strangles in an IRA or non marginable account. You sell a put that is cash secured, then sell a call credit spread. If the credit exceeds the strike difference you have a strangle with no upside risk.

Another option with covered calls if you think the price will keep going up, sell a call credit spread. That way you cleect some credit but if the market takes off you can get a nice pop in your equity because you are net long call options.

Just random musings but I am sure some of you have tried these with good results. Jade lizards seem to be good for earnings. Manage them at 50% profit just like strangles.

STO EXPE next week 125…

STO EXPE next week 125 puts at 1.55. Earnings next week but good support at 125 in the big IRA account.

STO 2 IWM next week 135 puts at .80 in the smaller IRA.

Closing out the call spreads…

Closing out the call spreads (90/92.5 and 92.5/95) on my WDC laddered jade lizards with earnings coming up. I don’t mind being assigned on the downside if it drops below 75, but with a new price target of 116 don’t want to see a nice profit turn into a loss. I can close 1 at even, 1 for a slight loss, and 1 for a slight profit so basically a scratched trade. May re-ladder after earnings.

IRA selling some IWM puts that expire next week, 2 strikes OTM.
In the big IRA account will do the same with SPY.

Ongoing weekly experiment. I had…

Ongoing weekly experiment. I had not thought much about low value options, and typically would not sell options if they were less than $0.25. But one of the things I have already learned in the income blueprint is that a $0.40 option sold every week for a year (52 weeks) is $2080. On a 5000 account that is almost a 50% annual return. Food for thought on IRA or smaller accounts.

Experiment

So I usually don’t sign up for advisory services. The only ones I have ever made money with were Don Fishback and in the good old days when the VIX stayed around 18-20 was Dr. Terry Allen’s recommendations (he taught some of my friends at UVA and is how I was introduced to options) and the trading book was helpful for directional trades. I have also spent plenty of money on tools that don’t work (John Carter and others). I have found a few tools from alphashark that are useful and have paid for themselves but only if you get them on sale.

The most useful resource I have seen and is free is tastytrade. There are now education experts packaging their research and selling it when you can get it for free from them. Selling options 30-45 days out, managing winners, and rolling/adjusting losers works. Can we all have results as good as Karen the Supertrader, probably not but by staying in the game and compounding we can probably make a decent amount of money and many of us had (my new GTI was paid for with cash last year with option profits).

Anyway, my experiment was I had a special price on Options Income Blueprint, $80 for 2 months so I figured what the hell, worth a try. They do all of the above but focus on weekly options. Same benefits, quicker decay so quicker pay check hopefully. I am only 2 weeks in and have already found you get assigned a lot more because you are closer to the money or have to roll options a lot more because of the same reason. However, I am slightly profitable and as long as you roll for even or a credit do not add any additional risk to the trade. I will report back at the end of 2 months and post some of my trades. If it works may be able to get quicker time decay and is another tool for generating income.
Glad I was referred to options bistro, I have already had a lot of good ideas and like the way everyone trades!
Now maybe we get some more volatility!?

# falling knife. I was…

  1. falling knife. I was hoping TSO would rebound off the 77-78 level. However it is starting to look like a falling knife trade. I have my cost basis down below 82 and have sold and 83 call. If it rebounds I will have a good profit. If it continues to drop I will collar it by adding some long-term puts. If anybody else is following this trade, it tends to rebound hard when it finds a bottom. I have seen it run 77-90 in the course of a week. If I were taking this trade now, I would probably buy stock and then sell a call credit spread at the money so you could have some unlimited upside.

#fallingknife

The math behind why 45…

The math behind why 45 DTE is most efficient for selling options.

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/the-skinny-on-options-modeling/episodes/why-45-dte-is-the-magic-number-05-26-2016–2

Rolling TSO 83 calls to…

Rolling TSO 83 calls to May 12 83 call for 1.04 credit. Assigned at 87.5 but with 6 weeks of rolling cost basis now 81.75 so assignment will result in a nice profit on 17 contracts. TSO tends to find a base around 78-80 then cycles to upper 80s and back down. Used to cycle every 2 weeks, now seems to take 3-4 to cover same range.

Picked up some nice theta over the weekend on laddered WDC Jade lizards. Start rolling those end of week.

IRA rolled AAL 41 put…

IRA rolled AAL 41 put 4/21 out to 5/5 42 put for .81 credit. Originally sold for about .52 and was down to 0.07. Small account, only 2 contracts going.

Long weekend should give some good decay for my open TSO and WDC positions and maybe take some profits next week!

The VIX is finally high…

The VIX is finally high enough it may be worth looking at some /es strangles. Small size, only one contract for every $6000 so you can cover or hedge it if there is an extended move. Looking at the May 17, 44 days to expiration. 2125 put/2445 call brings in about $420 per one lot. Could probably close in 2-3 weeks at a 50% profit or even sooner if the VIX crushes back down.
First need to free up some cash by closing out some WDC Jade lizards at the 75/90/92.5 strikes but hoping to get a few more days of theta decay before closing. They are only about 25% profitable and if I wait another week I should be able to close at 50%. Today is helping, there was finally a reversal. Some days it is better to be lucky than good, I was starting to have to worry about adjusting the short 90 calls.

Hello everyone! I have been…

Hello everyone! I have been following for a month or so now. Good to find others that trade the same way I do (tasytrade, don fishback style). Anyway, I have been trading options seriously since 2004. I have almost exclusively graduated to selling options as over the years most of my trades that worked out involved selling an option first and not picking a direction. However, I have found taking a slight directional bias can increase returns.

Lately I have traded mostly individual names (better premiums with the low vol.). I tend to start by selling a put 1-4 weeks out. Delta 30 or lower and try to collect at least 1.00 or very close. If I get assigned convert to covered calls. I will also roll options until I can close it, make some money on it, or scratch it and start over. I have found about 16 names that trade well like this with good premiums that cycle with a range. I am currently in a TSO position that was assigned at 87.5 but because of rolling have my cost basis down to 82. 1 more point I am back to profit, today helped! Or 1 more week of rolling and will be break even.

I will also sell /es or /cl or /gc futures strangles but will always keep enough of a cash reserve to cover those positions if there is an extended move. Burned big time Aug. 2015 when I was short 50 /es contracts but only had enough cash to cover half of them. A painful lesson but a rule I will never break again. With those I will usually start 30-45 days out with a delta of 4-16 depending on directional bias. They decay to delta 4-8 in about 2-4 weeks and can take 50% off the table as tastytrade recommends. In case of an extended move will go long or short some contracts as a hedge and to get some hard deltas. Once the move is over close at a profit and keep the options decaying or let the options assign and close the future. Those are the trades that supercharge the equity curve but they don’t happen that often.

Thanks for the ideas. Look forward to working with everyone and hope I can add some ideas to the pile. I will usually not be long winded, this will be my longest post. As I see how you post trades I will start adding some. Usually trade on Thurs. (day off) and Fri. with rare mid week adjustment if needed.

Cheers, Chris Davis