Quiet week; only notable data on Thursday and Friday
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/15/24
#SPX0dte On the sidelines so far, given the downtrend this week and overnight. Will probably try something if no big moves materialize.
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 14th 5915/5935-6030/6050 condors for 1.10, IV 17.62%, deltas -.06 +.07
Sold right at the open, but NOT a good fill. I set limit too low, should have been 1.20 and waited a few seconds.
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 13th 5950/5980-5985/6015 condors for 15.65, IV 17.09%
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/12/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 12th 5925/5945-6040/6060 condors for 1.15, IV 17.46%, deltas -.05 +.08
Trying different tweaks on this trade. For a few years selling this about an hour before the open gave good advantage, but in the last several months that seemed to disappear, with little or no decay occurring in that hour. Placing a limit order after the open is like a moving target as things move pretty quickly. So today I saw that in premarket the mid price was between 1.05 and 1.12, so I set the order for 1.15 to be submitted AT THE OPEN. It took a few seconds but the spike higher in the first minute filled me. When we reached that height again five minutes later the price was down to .95. So volatility at the open can net more premium, at the risk of a strong spike becoming a big move.
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 11th 5950/5970-6060/6080 condors for .90, IV 15.84%, deltas -.09 +.03, at 9:35 ET
I entered this trade when the deltas were -.07 +.05 but it didn’t fill until the slight move down when deltas were pretty skewed.
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator Since early October the $VIX remained stubbornly high despite the indexes hovering near all-time highs. The election released the tension and caused a massive collapse in the VIX, and now we get the Upside Warning at new all-time highs. This means we likely have higher to go in the coming days or weeks.
Earnings 11/11 – 11/15
Econ Calendar 11/11 – 11/15
Nothing at all Monday, not much Tuesday, then CPI (Wed), PPI (Thur), Retail Sales (Fri)
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Nov 8th 5905/5925-6025/6045 condors for 1.00, IV 17.5%, deltas -.05 +.07
I placed this order about 1 minute after the open but it didn’t fill until the spike higher at 9:34… i let the fill price come to me. Waiting until after Michigan data before trying anything else.
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/7/24
#SPX0dte Volatility pretty quiet compared to recent fed days. Watching premium drain out so I’m taking a shot that we’ll see enough decay in the morning for a trade. Sold this with SPX about 6 points above center.
Sold to Open $SPX 5920/5950-5955/5985 condors for 20.00, IV 25.09%
Closed spec trade
#SPX0dte BTC $SPX Nov 8th 5695/5725-5730/5760 condors for 29.20. Sold Monday for 28.00. Now that this is hugely OTM I’m closing now when puts still have some value, rather than wait for a full 2-dollar loss.
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/6/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 6th 5810/5790 put spreads for .90, delta -.08, IV 35.44%
Even though we making new all time highs by the minute, still too hesitant to sell a call spread yet.
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/5/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 5th 5630/5650-5775/5795 condors for 1.20, IV 23.41%, deltas -.06 +.06
Econ Calendar adjusted
My apologies but the calendar I posted on Sunday was incorrectly set with the wrong time zone (Daylight Savings glitch). I have now edited the post to reflect Eastern time, as per usual. The Econ calendar is always available quickly in the menu bar above.
Low risk long shot
#SPX0dte One minute after close on Monday was filled on a speculative trade. It’s the highest premium I’ve ever sold a 30-point condor for, so risk is total of 2.00 for max gain of 28.00. More likely, if we’re still close to this price level on Friday, I would close for 5.00 to 10.00 profit. I had an order in for a few days for an ATM Nov 8th trade at 28.00, but it didn’t fill until yesterday.
Sold to open $SPX Nov 8th 5695/5725-5730/5760 condors for 28.00.
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/4/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 5640/5660-5790/5810 condors for 1.10, IV 23.01%, deltas -.06 +.06
Looking at a chart for this condor the price has been lowering all night so I’m going to enter before market, since today has no major economic moves. IV seems high just because what’s coming the rest of the week.
Earnings 11/4 – 11/8
Econ Calendar 11/4 – 11/8
REVISED Tuesday morning (previous post had wrong time zone, this is now Eastern)
Election & PMI on Tuesday; Auctions Tue & Wed, Payrolls & FED decision Thursday, and Michigan Inflation data Friday.
All times Eastern
SPX 0-dte trades for 11/1/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5765/5785-5800/5820 condors for 1.00, IV 22.25%, deltas -.05 +.06
October Jobs Report
#Jobs — Much lower than expected, likely reflecting hurricane effects
Gain of +12,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 100K
Unemployment unchanged at 4.1%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.7%, unchanged
Labor force participation down 0.1 at 62.6%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +4.0% Y/Y
August jobs revised down by -81K to +78K
September jobs revised down by -31K to +223K
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/31/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 5705/5725-5845/5865 condors for 1.25, IV 22.59%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/30/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 30th 5760/5780-5875/5895 condors for 1.30, IV 18.47%, deltas -.07 +.07
SPX o-dte trades for 10/29/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 29th 5740/5760-5860/5880 condors for 1.15, IV 18.58%, deltas -.06 +.07
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/28/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 5750/5770-5880/5900 condors for 1.10, IV 19.10%, deltas -.07 +.05
Deltas seem a bit off again… despite the delta put being 2 pts higher than the call, the premium I’m getting from the call side is twice as much as the put side.
Earnings 10/28 – 11/1
The BIG WEEK, including Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Apple.
Econ Calendar 10/28 – 11/1
REVISIONS – see comment
A little something each day except Monday; Jobs report on Friday.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/25/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 5745/5765-5865/5885 condors for 1.30, IV 18.10, deltas -.06 +.07, sold 17 minutes before the open.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/24/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 24th 5730/5750-5855/5875 condors for 1.00, IV 20.50%, deltas -.06 +.06
I waited until after open on this one since recently selling before open hasn’t given much edge.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/23/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 23rd 5770/5790-5880/5900 condors for 0.969, IV 15.96%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/22/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 22nd 5765/5785-5885/5905 condors for 1.05, IV 17.93%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trade for 10/21/24
#SPX0dte Sold top open $SPX Oct 21st 5805/5785 put spreads for .65, IV 15.86%, delta -.07
With overnight movement it looks like we could be near bottom of a swing, so I’m not going to sell a call side with such low premium when we have room to rise.
Earnings 10/21 – 10/25
Tesla, Boeing, IBM all on Wednesday
Econ Calendar 10/21 – 10/25
Significant data releases on Wed, Thur, Fri
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/18/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5780/5800-5900/5920 condors for 1.10, IV 17.95%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 17th 5835/5865-5870/5900 condors for 15.35, IV 18.33%
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 16th 5740/5760-5865/5885 condors for 1.10, IV 18.29%, deltas -.06 +.06
Third day’s a charm? Two days straight of no econ data but still big moves and stops on this trade. Thought about going long with this instead, but I think chances are stronger that today will quiet down ahead of tomorrow’s data. But I’m ready to exit early if we start to move.
SPX 0-dte for 10/15/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 15th 5800/5820-5900/5920 condors for 1.25, IV 16.85%, deltas -.08 +.07
Waited for the open then went a bit aggressive since no overnight moves and no data releases today.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 5745/5765-5860/5880 condors for 1.10, IV 16.34%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 10/14 – 10/18
Econ Calendar 10/14 – 10/18
Fairly quiet week except for Thursday with Retail Sales, Philly Fed, and ECB rate decision.
Bond market closed on Monday
SPX o-dte trades for 10/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 5710/5730-5825/5845 condors for 1.25, IV 18.48%, deltas -.07 +.07
SPX 0-dte for 10/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 10th 5690/5710-5840/5860 condors for 1.20, IV 24.40%, deltas -.07 +.04
Leaning bullish on this since I feel the dip will bounce back.
CPI a bit higher than expected
US Sept. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% M/M; Est. +0.1%, 2.4% Y/Y; Est. +2.3%
Sept. Core CPI Rises 0.3% M/M; Est. +0.2%, 2.4% Y/Y; Est. +2.3%
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator. New $SPX high means the DW is canceled. That may be the fakest headfake I’ve ever seen this indicator produce. I don’t know why $VIX is so high, but can only guess it has to do with the trader uncertainty about how fast rates will come down, which seems to be a silly fear given the strength of just about everything right now.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/9/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5665/5686-5795/5815 condors for 1.00, IV 19.03%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 8th 5615/5635-5760/5780 condors for 1.25, IV 22.15%, deltas -.06 +.06
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator The high $VIX close on Monday was over 50% higher than the recent low of 14.90. This fires the Downside Warning. The last one fired on Sept 3rd and was only good for an additional 2% down over 4 days.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator. Afternoon surprise… despite the volatility last week the Upside Warning survived. Not today. A Downside warning will take effect if $VIX closes above 22.34.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/7/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 5640/5660-5790/5810 condors for 1.10, IV 22.90%, deltas -.06 +.05
Earnings 10/7 – 10/11
Final earnings season of the year kicks off Friday with bank earnings.
Econ Calendar 10/7 – 10/11
Two bond auctions this week, and the big CPI on Thursday.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/4/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 5635/5655-5800/5820 condors for 1.35, IV 26.95%, deltas -.08 +.05
I waited for the first red candle after the Jobs report on the 5-min futures chart. Took 35 minutes.
September Jobs Report
#Jobs — Wildly beating expectations, including upward revisions to July and August
Gain of +254,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 151K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 4.1%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.7%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +4.0% Y/Y
August jobs revised up by +17K to +159K
July jobs revised up by +55K to +144K
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/3/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd 5610/5630-5765/5785 condors for 1.25, IV 24.96%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte for 10/2/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 5605/5625-5765/5785 condors for 1.15, IV 24.61%, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/1/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5670/5690-5810/5830 condors for 1.25, IV 21.54%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/30/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 5630/5650-5780/5800 condors for 1.20, IV 23.12%, deltas -.06 +.06
$VIX moving higher and deltas wider than last week
Earnings 9/30 – 10/4
Econ Calendar 9/30 – 10/4
JOBS report Friday… potential market movers every other day, too.
SPX 0-dte for 9/27/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 5680/5700-5795/5815 condors for 1.10, IV 16.88%, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 5675/5695-5800/5820 condors for 1.40, IV 17.42%, deltas -.08 +.06. First time with strikes over 5800
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/25/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5660/5680-5770/5790 condors for 1.00, IV 16.11%, deltas -.07 +.06
Econ Calendar update
Guess I gotta check for updates more often. The current sharp drop seems driven by “CB Consumer Confidence” Data released at 10am ET, which was not on calendar when I copied it into the menu above but is there on Bloomberg’s site now.
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/24/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 24th 5690/5720-5725/5755 condors for 14.70, IV 17.70%
Premium was pretty low for the wide condor so I skipped it.
Upside Warning now in effect
#VIXindicator The last Upside Warning fired on Aug 13 when SPX was 6% above the latest low, and peaked on Aug 26 at 10.4% above the low, so it caught over 4% of upside. Currently the SPX is 6% above the Sept 6th low.
SPX 0-dte for 9/23/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 5630/5650-5755/5775 condors for 1.45, IV 19.88%, deltas -.07 +.07
Earnings 9/23 – 9/27
Economic Calendar 9/23 – 9/27
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/20/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5610/5630-5775/5795 condors for 1.10, IV 25.11%, deltas -.06, +.05. I went a strike further on call side just to reduce risk on a Friday in a week with strong profit already.
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/19/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 19th 5580/5600-5750/5770 condors for 1.90, IV 25.40%, deltas -.10, +.06
SPX 0-dte trades 9/18/24
#SPX0dte Well, taking the shot at an unpredictable move but high premium.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 18th 5600/5630-5635/5665 condors for 25.05.
Risking 4.95, which is just a bit more in my profit so far this week. For now I’m targeting to close at 20.00, for 5.05 profit. But I’ll keep an eye on the day and maybe take profits early if there’s some decay. On the announcement and/or press conference, premium can drop super fast, and if we are not too far from the center point, 20.00 should not be a problem. But if we are far from center, I can either brace for a drift back through center or take a loss smaller than 4.95.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator The Downside Warning was canceled at the open, due to the SPX exceeding 5651, which was the high between the last Upside & Downside warnings.
SPX 0-dte for 9/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5560/5580-5700/5720 condors for 1.20, IV 22.32%, deltas -.06 +.06, at 9:18am ET
SPX 0-dte for 9/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 5535/5555-5670/5690 condors for 1.30, IV 22.12%, deltas -.07 +.07. A bit tighter on deltas than normal, looking for sideways day with no economic news and traders waiting for Wednesday Fed decision.
