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Author Archives: Jeff
Good morning…
Good jobs report… time to short the rally. I will be selling call spreads today.
SPX final put spread closed
If SPX ends tomorrow at this level, it will cost me $25.00 to close this spread. So I’m instead closing it now while the long puts still have plenty of value. I will look to do an ITM spread in the near future to replace this. It is a small position so not a huge headache.
BTC $SPX Jan 8th 1970/1945 put spreads for 14.60. Sold for 1.25 last Thursday.
SVXY new low
#VXXGame SVXY just tagged its lowest level since July 2013… a true laggard in the last 15 months, even though it managed to tag an all-time high in June 2015.
Soundtrack for the day…
This song was used in the ending credits for The Big Short (which you should all see) and I think it’s appropriate for today…
Out and Up
#ContangoETFs #Rolling
Man how I love these ETFs; able to roll 10 points higher and still take in a huge credit. $TZA hasn’t been to 60 since the Oct 2014 correction.
BTC TZA Jan 15th 50 calls for 4.65. Sold for 1.40 on Dec 7th.
STO TZA April 15th 60 calls for 5.85.
UVXY soars
#VXXGame STO $UVXY Feb 66 call for 4.00 (a few minutes ago, now it’s 4.75)
STO UVXY Jan 15th 125 call for .15… expire next week. This strike is pretty ridiculous, which is why I only got filled on 1 contract. I’ll see how many I can get.
VIX Indicator firing again
We just passed 25% above Tuesday’s close, which is another Downside signal. Perhaps we’ll get the panic spike today, but I would at least think we should see VIX above the Dec 14th high, which was 26.81, when the low on SPX was 1993… VIX should be higher already. Next VIX signal is at 25.60, which is 100% above the most recent low (Oct 28).
SPX puts closed (again)
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 8th 1940/1915 put spreads for 4.00. Sold for 1.50 on Tuesday. Can’t risk another overnight flush on the S&P, so getting out now. This leaves only one small-sized spread at 1970/1945, currently partly ITM. I will let this one sit and deal with tomorrow, since it is small and easy to shoulder if necessary. Plenty of call spreads expiring tomorrow and in future weeks. Will sell more on any rally and possibly try put spreads on extreme lows. VIX is higher today, but not spiking too high so I still believe 1900 is coming soon.
KOLD closing, VLO opening
#ContangoETFs BTC $KOLD Feb 19th 300 call for .90. Sold for 16.00 on Dec 18th. I don’t think this is at risk of being breached, but closing calls does release margin pressure. I am happy with over 90% of max.
STO $VLO Jan 22nd 74 call for 1.00, after selling a put on this morning’s dip. #Earnings
KOLD low
Nat Gas resuming its rally, and $KOLD hits its lowest point since November 19th.
STO $KOLD Jan 15th 119 put for 1.80
STO $BOIL March 18th 24 call for 1.30
#ContangoETFs
Covered put
STO $VLO Jan 29th 67 put for 1.50. I continue to sell puts and calls against this short stock position… assigned at 65.00 after an #Earnings play, my cost basis is now just below 68.00. It is a bullish chart, but the stock is having trouble rising due to oil and market volatility.
China suspends circuit breaker rule
Looks like China is throwing in the towel on their new rule. Makes sense, since they cannot open every day, have a 7% sell-off, and then shut down. This could mean less volatility for Futures tonight, or it could mean an even bigger China sell-off and global panic. And we have job numbers. What a week!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/china-suspends-stock-circuit-breaker-rule-csrc-says-on-weibo
KOLD puts
#ContangoETFs STO $KOLD Jan 15th 120 puts for 1.30. Margin-free against numerous short calls and expiring in 6 trading days.
UVXY calls
#VXXGame Sold near the open:
STO $UVXY March 165 calls for 2.60
STO $UVXY June 80 call for 9.00
Highest strikes in both expiries.
Good morning…
Well, not like we didn’t expect it. Don’t panic like the guy in the cartoon… protect your capital, take opportunities when you can. I’m looking for a big spike in the VIX to consider any neutral or bullish trades; even with Wednesday’s sell-off, VIX was relatively quiet. It has not yet signaled panic, but it has given plenty of downside warning. Once the panic comes, volatility will be driven to higher levels and VXX products will be primed for selling. SPX spreads will be possible in 1600’s or lower.
New calls opened
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 2030/2055 call spreads for 1.30. Adding this hedge against a couple of put spreads, 1970/1945 and 1940/1915. Hoping the SPX waits until next week to take its big dive.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 22nd 2130/2155 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.30 on Dec 21st.
ETF calls
#ContangoETFs
STO $NUGT Jan 29th 35 calls for 1.15
STO $KOLD Feb 320 calls for 1.15
STO $KOLD Feb 220 call for 4.60
Thanks @optioniceman for the ideas.
UVXY calls closed
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Jan 15th 150 calls for .05. Sold for .85 on Dec 18th.
SPX put spread roll
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 1940/1915 put spreads for 1.50. Paired with call spreads sold earlier, all expiring this Friday.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Feb 6th 2130/2155call spreads for 1.25.
SPX spread rolls
Whipsawing continues … sold $SPX Jan 8th 2060/2085 call spreads for 1.45. Was poised to sell 1940/1915 put spreads but was not filled before the index reversed upwards. Will look to sell put side on next down move.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 8th 2000/1975 put spreads for 7.25. Sold last week for 1.20. After another VIX Indicator warning yesterday, I will now only sell put spreads at extreme lows, like yesterday morning, where I was able to turn around a same-week spread in the same day. I will also be more aggressive with call spreads. Until we get a significant flush or correction with a high spiking VIX, I believe we will be in a continued down trend… no more buy the dips, but instead sell the rallies. I will stick with this until the market and VIX tell me something new.
SPX 5 hour spread
#SPXcampaign At 7 minutes after the close, BTC $SPX Jan 8th 1900/1875 put spreads for .30. Sold this morning for 1.30. Maybe can do it again if we get another morning of weakness.
VLO puts
STO $VLO Jan 15th 67 put for 1.00
STO $VLO Jan 22nd 67 put for 1.30.
These puts are covered against a short stock position from an earnings play. Cost basis now around 68.00. #Earnings
SPX same week put spread – 90 points OTM
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 1900/1875 put spreads for 1.30. These expire Friday.
TZA calls
#ContangoETFs STO $TZA Jan 22nd 50 calls for 2.50. Looking at the monthly chart on this, I’m not concerned that this position will remain a problem, even if it requires some #Rolling in the short term.
New intraday high in SPX…
New intraday high in SPX would be 2008.02…
Good morning…
…from Portland, where the city is covered in ice and frozen in place. The market, however, far from it. Should we try to catch a falling icicle today, or is more pain to come? The VIX indicator will likely fire another warning shot this morning as volatility continues to rule the day. I’m looking for a really sharp down day and big VIX spike before I expect to see SPX move back toward 2100. Keeping light on the put spreads and adding call spreads whenever I can.
SPX closed in pre-M
#SPXcampaign In Pre-market, BTC $SPX Jan 14th (monthlys) 2135/2160 call spreads for .20.
Options Expiration 12/31/15
Expiring with 100% of max profit:
$DUST 20 calls
$NUGT 34 call
$SPX 2005/1980 put spreads
$SPX 2100/2125 call spreads
$VLO 66 puts (covered)
Have a great New Year’s weekend every one! See you on the other side.
Adding SPX one-week condor
#SPXcampaign Selling $SPX Jan 8th 2100/2125 call spreads, and 1970/1945 put spreads. Looking for 1.25-1.35 each side. Small in size. This will complete my #Rolling for the week. Adding more to the call spread I started this morning, and opening new lower striked put spreads. My 2000/1975 puts survived the day, just barely. Since it’s the only put spread I have I’m okay holding it over a weekend, even though market it precarious.
UVXY puts
#VXXGame STO $UVXY Jan 15th 23 puts for .90
STO UVXY Jan 22nd 22 puts for 1.00
STO UVXY Jan 22nd 22/20 put spreads for .55 (smaller account)
SPX call spread roll
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 2100/2125 call spreads for 1.30, as part of a roll from this week’s call spread that was stopped on Monday. Getting a bit whipsawed this week, as I expected a flat to bullish week before volatility came in next week. Maybe I had that backwards, or maybe this week being down is the start of a January correction early. In any case, I am now watching next week’s 2000/1975 put spread, which is approaching its stop level. It’s the only put spread I’m holding beyond this week. I want to sell more call spreads, and will do if SPX can gain its footing today.
KOLD pop
Of course, my morning post yesterday probably signaled a low in $KOLD. Nothing like shouting that it will be below 100 in two weeks to get it to shoot higher immediately. Still, taking some put side risk off and adding some calls.
BTC $KOLD Jan 114 puts for 1.50. Sold for 3.45 on 12/3
BTC $KOLD Feb 90 put for 2.00. Sold for 4.00 on 11/23
STO KOLD Feb 240 call for 5.00
STO KOLD Feb 250/275 call spreads for 1.00 — the margin to sell 4 of these was less than selling one 250 call for 4.00
Heavy metals
#ContangoETFs
STO $DUST Feb 25 calls for 1.05
STO $ZSL May 80 call for 3.00
VIX Indicator status
#SPXCampaign – Based on the behavior of the $VIX in recent days, I am not convinced that we are moving much higher. Yesterday the VIX saw a healthy pop, even though the index pullback was minor. And today we are not seeing as much of a VIX drop as you would expect with such a bullish market. Last week we got two closes below the 78.6% Fib line, but the confirmation of upside bias was denied when the third consecutive day failed yesterday. Now we will see if it can get back below there today (15.80).
SPX IC roll
#SPXcampaign #Rolling #IronCondor
Rolling the earlier stopped call spread into an iron condor. Selling puts first, and will wait for higher price in index to sell calls.
STO $SPX Jan 8th 2000/1975 put spreads for 1.25.
SPX call spread opened
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 29th 2160/2185 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2074.
UVXY puts
#VXXGame STO $UVXY Jan 15th 22 puts for 1.10. Added to the 20 puts previously sold.
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 31st 2085/2110 call spreads for 4.50. Sold last week for 3.90 as a roll. Will look to replace with a higher Jan 8th spread, but will wait as I believe we will move higher this week.
KOLD roll
#ContangoETFs #ReverseRoll
BTC $KOLD Jan 150 put for 21.00. Sold for 4.10 on 12/14
BTC KOLD Jan 140 put for 14.00. Sold for 3.10
STO KOLD Feb 110 call for 35.60 (ITM)
STO KOLD May 275 call for 7.00
Good morning….
Nat Gas futures up again… seems clear we are in a sustained bounce/rally, even as other energy still wavers. Not sure if the bottom is in, but if the upticks continue, and with the magnified effect on 2x ETF’s, $KOLD is set to collapse back below 100 with in a couple weeks. I am #ReverseRoll my way out of short puts, able to still sell calls above 200 and even 300 before they die a slow death. I was trying to get out of my 150 put yesterday but thought maybe we’d get a small pullback in Gas today. No such luck, and now KOLD is opening 12 points lower. No more waiting… closing 150 and 140 puts today. Fortunately, ITM calls, including the 150 CALL I sold for 64.00, are coming in nicely.
Stopped KOLD
#ContangoETFs #ReverseRoll
BTC $KOLD Jan 170 put for 22.60. Sold for 6.80 on 12/15
STO $KOLD May 320 calls (x3) for 9.40, highest available strike
ZSL calls
#ContangoETFs First ZSL calls I’ve added in awhile, I haven’t been playing as much since the reverse split since so much attention has been on KOLD
STO $ZSL Jan 15th 65 calls for 1.60, adding to 70 and 72.5 calls
Good morning…
Hope everyone had a wonderful weekend! Another low volume week… I’m watching for indications of what will happen in January, but not reading too much into minor moves this week. Will look to continue selling call spreads on rallies, but keeping put spreads few and close to expiration.
Options Expiration 12/24/15
#OptionsExpiration Expiring with 100% of max profit…
$SPX 1990/1965 put spreads
$UVXY 50 calls
$VLO 67 covered puts
Happy Holidays to everyone! Thanks for making the early days of Bistro so successful. I look forward to growth and much more in 2016.
Stone KOLD rolling
#ContangoETFs #ReverseRoll
Yesterday BTC $KOLD Jan 170 put for 13.60
Today STO $KOLD Feb 240 call for 14.00
Complete 4-day iron condor
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 2100/2125 call spreads for 1.55. Combined with put spread sold this morning, completes iron condor for 2.80 total. With 3.00 stop on either side, max loss is .20.
4-day put spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 2010/1985 put spreads for 1.25. Expire next Thursday on another shortened trading week. Will look to make it a condor.
Call spread closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 8th 2160/2185 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.25 on Dec 9th.
VIX Indicator… bullish reversal?
The $VIX closed below 15.80 today, which is the 78.6 retracement level for the 12/14 peak. Three consecutive closes below 15.80 will nullify the recent Downside Warnings and fire an Upside Warning. It’s entirely possible this will happen in the coming days since we are in low volume vacation mode. Although the upside signal does not always mean a huge rally, it almost always has indicated the cessation of volatility since the year 2000.
Five-hour spread
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2030/2010 put spreads for .10. Sold this morning for 1.10. Could let it expire, but when the market gives you a gift, TAKE IT. (credit to Dan Sheridan for that line)
Another call spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 14th 2135/2160 call spreads for 1.55. Avoided last week’s whipsaw and didn’t sell any spreads in this expiration. Starting with this one…
VXX long put
#VXXGame Sold to close $VXX March 25 put for 7.50. Bought for 5.00 on Sept 2nd. This was a GTC order to collect 50% on the trade, filled today.
SPX rolled calls
#SPXcampaign #Rolling STO $SPX Dec 31st 2085/2110 call spreads for 3.90. This is the second half of the roll from this morning’s stopped spread, totaling a .80 credit for the roll. I will roll again should SPX get much above 2075. Mainly, I want to avoid going ITM, since that makes rolling much more difficult.
NKE Earnings
#Earnings BTC $NKE Dec 24th 123 puts for .04. Sold for 1.00 yesterday.
KOLD snap?
#ContangoETFs STO $KOLD Jan 140 put for 3.10. Have several puts, but will #ReverseRoll them into calls if any of them become ATM.
UVXY spreads
#VXXGame Sold to Open $UVXY Jan 8th 22/20 put spreads for .55, in my 401K and smaller accounts.
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2060/2085 call spreads for 4.20. Will roll into various put and call spreads.
I’m closing and rolling this…
I’m closing and rolling this week’s $SPX 2060/2085 call spread
UVXY puts
#VXXGame After-hours fills:
STO $UVXY Jan 8th 22 puts for .92
STO $UVXY Jan 15th 20 puts for .80
SPX same week condor
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 2060/2085 call spreads for 1.20. Combined with puts sold earlier make an iron condor. Stop is 3.00 if one of the sides hits it, meaning lax loss on full trade is .05.
NKE earnings
#Earnings STO $NKE Dec 24th 123 puts for 1.00. Biggest UP move: 12.2% , Biggest DOWN move: -5.1% , Average move: 5.2% . This trade is 5.4% OTM.
CMG IB attempt
#IronButterfly I am trying for an iron butterfly on CMG, selling this week’s 500 call and 500 put, and buying the 490 put and 510 call for protection. I want 9.00 for it, leaving me a max risk of 1.00. It’s not trading there yet, but may fill later as the OTM options reduce in price.
SPX same week put spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX 1990/1965 put spreads for 1.75. These expire in 2 days. Will try call spread if we get more strength today.
Generally avoiding put spreads under current VIX Indicator warnings, but I’m not too worried about a big move this week.
Revenge is a dish best served KOLD
#ContangoETFs Nat Gas chart finally looking constructive with possible bottom in place. Dumping my only ITM put with a #ReverseRoll to higher calls. As long as we get some stabilization in gas prices, KOLD will dump.
BTC $KOLD Jan 210 put for 30.00. Sold for 21.90 on 12/15.
STO $KOLD Feb 270 calls (2) for 16.50
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 22nd 2130/2155 call spreads for 1.30. Keeping up with a full campaign on the call side while remaining careful on the put side, due to multiple VIX warnings. Currently I’m holding no put spreads, and other than this new one only a few call spreads, all well into profit. I expect this week to be calmer, but fireworks could start erupting next week or week after. But it’s too tough to call; as Art Cashin said, this is the toughest market he’s seen in 50 years, which is a few more years than I’ve been at this. Also one more year than I’ve been alive.
See you Monday…
Friday’s move lower indicates volatility is ruling the month… but will it continue in the typically lower volume weeks remaining? Will the underperforming hedge fund and mutual fund managers be scrambling to make up for bad 2015 performance?
UVXY after hours
#VXXGame filled at 4:12 ET
STO $UVXY Dec 24th 50 calls for .67
STO $UVXY Jan 15th 150 calls for .85
Options Expiration 12/18/15
Expiring with 100% profit:
$SPX 2145/2170 call spreads
$AZO 700 puts
$BOIL 25, 30, 65 calls
$DUST 30 call
$FDS 155 puts
$KOLD 170, 185, 195, 200 puts
$UVXY 20 puts
$VLO 72 call
$VLO 67.5 put (covered)
$ZSL 65 and 67.5 calls
No assignments.
Oh, what do we have in store for the coming weeks?
Calm dump?
As much as $SPX was dumping at the end, the $VIX was pretty calm.
TLT long
#LongOptions BTO $TLT Jan 15th 123 calls for 1.69
BTO $TLT Feb 123 calls for 2.50
Small positions, but long calls in TLT paid me well in past corrections.
SPX closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 14th 1875/1850 put spreads for 2.15. Sold yesterday for 1.25. I am not carrying any bullish index positions through the weekend.
Options Bistro 