$SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 8th 1890/1865 put spreads for 3.45. Sold for 1.40 on Dec 4th as a roll. 3.50 was my stop.
I am currently not entering any new positions on SPXcampaign… waiting for volatility to either kick really high, or head back toward lows. Currently to volatile for this strategy.
I am day trading SVXY stock in this madness. May use UVXY too. In and out in minutes with these swings.
BTC $SPX Dec 17th 2125/2150 for .20. Sold for 1.20 on Thursday. Keeping out of the way of a possible bear market rally on monthly expiration with Friday AM settlement.
Once initial warnings fire, secondary signals are less significant, but still signal likelihood of a correction. Friday saw a signal and we just touched above 25.60, which is 100% higher than the Oct 28 $VIX low. So that’s the fourth warning since Nov 13th.
#ContangoETFs New $KOLD call strikes up to 230. Probably best to buy them or ignore them!
I will be picking any entries sparingly and carefully before the FOMC decision. The downside risk is evident, but whichever decision they announce on Wednesday could send markets screaming higher, at least briefly. As for the #SPXcampaign, I was stopped out of put spreads and closed several call spreads Friday, and for now will be easing off on the normal weekly entries in the face of unpredictable volatility.
#SPXcampaign, in the last hour of the session, BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2155/2180 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 last Friday as a roll.
These expired worthless, full credit:
$DUST 30 call
$UVXY 23 puts
$VLO 74 call
$SPX 2085/2110 call spreads
$SPX 2130/2155 call spreads
Assignment:
$VLO 69 put, partial short stock position covered
Have a great weekend everyone! I’ll be checking in on the blog all weekend.
Consider some low cost hedges in case the market pulls another August 24th on Monday. Buy OTM options that will do well with a 2 SD move. They will be low cost enough that you won’t care about losing if market rebounds, or they will profit nicely at Monday’s open. If you’re certain Monday will be ugly, go bigger
Waiting till the end rarely works… had to pay up, 14.00, to exit my Dec 11th 2025/2000 spread. Will make it up some day when the market finishes its correction and heads to new highs. Could be awhile.
#SPXcampaign Had to take another one ahead of the weekend… can’t get stuck with these monthly spreads that could easily be in the money should next week crash.
BTC $SPX Dec 17th 1925/1900 put spreads for 2.60. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 19th.
SPX, fresh LOD
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 17th 1945/1920 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.35 on Nov 23rd. Hopefully the last spread I will have to stop, although I will look at what is left and consider closing early before a possible Monday crash.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 2110/2135 call spreads for 2.00. This is a #ReverseRoll from the Dec 24th put spread stopped out today. This is the only call-roll I will use today, as I do not want to throw all my risk up there only to have a huge bear-market rally next week. Waiting for Monday to look at further rolls.
#SPXcampaign Clearing decks so I can roll some of these spreads down so I can #ReverseRoll from the put spreads
BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2180/2205 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 18th (part of a roll)
BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2165/2190 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 27th
#VIXIndicator We are already under a triple $VIX Warning, but another signal just fired, as 24.18 is 25% above yesterday’s close. The Downside risk is increasing (duh).
#Contango ETFs Bought 100 shares of $KOLD for 187.90. Need to cover my short calls for next week, so buying a bit now in case price continues higher next week.
$SPX low of day
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#ContangoETFs Added another margin-free put, STO $KOLD Dec 18th 170 put for 2.50
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2170/2195 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 24th. Want to clear the call side so I can sell more… it is the safer play in this environment.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 1935/1910 put spread for 2.90. Sold of 1.35 for Nov 23rd
#Earnings BTC $RH Dec 18th 75 puts for .10, sold for .95 yesterday.
BTC RH Dec 18th 100 call for .10, sold for .66 yesterday.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 8th 1910/1885 put spreads for 2.95. Sold for 1.30 on Monday.
#Earnings Looks like the $RH earnings report resulted in some after hours volatility but only a slight move down so far. Will be closing my 75 short puts today, and also will close a 100 short call that filled near the close for .66.
Futures dumped overnight, but a pretty decent retail sales report was just released. Wage growth and consumer spending on the rise. It all may not matter, however, as we have multiple VIX warnings piling up, and everyone is hanging on the Fed decision next week.
I have been studying the VIX indicator, and since 1999 there have never been three Warnings before a full correction occurs. I believe the only reason we are not much lower in the indices is because of the impending Fed decision. I am on the lookout for declines… when they start is harder to call.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 17th 2165/2190 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.25 on Nov 17th.
STO $SPX Dec 17th 2125/2150 call spreads for 1.20.
This is basically taking profit on one spread then selling another spread as a bonus, but it can also be looked at as rolling for profit. I know the FOMC minutes next week could send markets soaring, but I will be okay with having to deal with the call side, since the put side has been the troubled side lately.
#ContangoETFs Adding more puts to offset the pain-in-my-side short calls:
STO $KOLD Dec 18th 149 puts for 1.90
STO $KOLD Feb 19th 110 puts for 3.15
#Earnings STO $RH Dec 18th 75 puts for .95. Biggest UP move: 16.1% , Biggest DOWN move: -11.9% , Average move: 8.7% . This trade is 13.8% OTM. Keeping position small as I don’t trust the market. May add 105 calls on some strength.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 11th 2085/2110 call spreads for .75. After missing the chance yesterday, I still wanted to get some credit on the non-threatened side of this week’s condor. Still perilously holding the 2025/2000 puts.
#SPXcampaign #Rolling STO $SPX Dec 31st 1900/1875 put spreads for 1.65. This is a roll from spreads stopped out last week. Despite the downside warning, I still feel we will continue consolidation into FOMC and monthly expiration next week. If I am wrong, that’s what stops are for.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 31st 2175/2200 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Nov 30th.
#Earnings BTC $AZO Dec 18th 800 calls for 3.85. Sold on Monday as part of 700/800 strangle for 5.25. Order in to close puts for .20.
#SPXcampaign At 9:20 PT, STO $SPX Jan 8th 1870/1845 put spreads for 1.25.
#VIXIndicator Third time since 11/13.
Glad I didn’t get a fill on selling an ITM put yesterday. 800 calls looking better.
STO $VLO Dec 31st 66 put for 1.00, against short stock.
$VIX just hit 19.20, which is 50% above the October 28th low of 12.80. If we hit 19.80, that will be 25% above Tuesday’s close, which will be a second signal and yet another Downside Warning.
Wow, had to step out briefly…. not only did I miss call spread fill, I missed my stop on the put spread. What a bad morning to have to step away!
Next $VIX Indicator signals are 19.20, then 19.80.
Pulled of the 2105 spread orders, now trying for 2110/2135
#SPXcampaign Since I bollocksed up the first one by selling only the put side too early on Monday (stopped out yesterday), trying this again with much less time for things to go wrong.
STO $SPX Dec 11th 2025/2000 puts spreads for 1.50.
Selling SPX Dec 11th 2105/2130 call spreads, working on a fill for .70 or higher. If I can’t get that I will drop down to 2100/2125.
I think we will continue these volatile swings into next week’s FOMC, but this week’s wildness shouldn’t threaten these strikes. Nonetheless, stop will be set at 2.50 for each side.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 2160/2185 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2060. This is the first of two call spreads I will sell for this expiry.
This is a great video @fuzzballl posted below, thought I’d repost here as the adjustment possibilities are endless for naked sellers.
Watch the 5th video down titled “Inverted Strangle Recap”
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/learn/strangle?locale=en-US
#Earnings My plan with the 800 calls will be to roll into January should we breach 800. As it looks more than likely, I may close today if price settles down from here.
#ContangoETFs The continuing decline of Nat Gas has driven $KOLD up astronomically, straining my account and margin. I currently have way more puts than calls, but the calls are all dramatically underwater. Fortunately, it is not difficult to #ReverseRoll. On November expiration, I had 5 short calls way ITM that I closed out. Within one week I had sold enough puts to make up for the losses, and all of those puts are now approaching zero.
December expiration is a bit heavier, but today I started closing out some early and sold some more puts.
BTC $KOLD Dec 118 call for 62.00. Sold for 20.00 on 11/11 (part of a roll)
BTC $KOLD Dec 120 call for 56.40. Sold for 19.00 on 11/19
BTC $KOLD Dec 100 puts for .20. Sold for 3.00 on 11/19
STO $KOLD Dec 155 puts for 2.85. Starting the rolls for the above positions.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 11th 2035/2015 put spreads for 2.60. I had a conditional stop-limit order on this that somehow executed when condition was not met. I am on phone with broker now trying to sort out. Condition was SPX below 2063, placed at 10:50am ET. As you can see, it has been above that level since then (as of this writing at 11:32 ET). Trade closed at 10:59, filled for 2.60 on a 2.85 limit order. Not a happy camper. (although I’ll be okay with it if we drop back below 2063!)
#SPXcampaign, regarding my $SPX Dec 11th 2035/2015 spread sold yesterday, went into the hole with it this morning but decided not to panic on a morning flush. Bounce now has it back below 3.00, so I will reinstate the stop now and get out if this rally is short-lived. Still looking to sell the call side for a condor.
AutoZone’s (AZO) Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues in Line
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/autozones-azo-q1-earnings-beat-131301324.html
Well, perhaps the $VIX warning we got Friday will come to fruition before January. More volatility today as oil continues to plunge. At some point we should reach a capitulation point where oil has a rapid, massive sell off and then finally bottoms. For now, it seems to be dragging stocks down with it.
#ContangoETFs STO $TZA Jan 15th 50 calls for 1.40. Every time this pops I sell some 50 calls in the next month, and every time I can cover for 80% of max profit a couple weeks later.
$SPX second test of 2067 area held for now, printing a higher low on the day.
All-time low in $USO.
#ContangoETFs New highs again… STO $KOLD Jan 15th 215 call for 7.10. Highest strike.
#Earnings STO $AZO Dec 18th 700 puts for 2.95 and 800 calls for 2.30. Over last 12 earnings, (one day moves) Biggest UP move: 4.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -4.0% , Average move: 2.3% . 13-day moves: Biggest UP move: 6.5% , Biggest DOWN move: -5.4% . These strikes are 6.9% and 6.5% OTM respectively.
STO $VLO Dec 31st 66 put for .85, against short stock.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 1910/1885 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2077. This is the first of two put spreads and two call spreads I plan to sell this week for the Jan 8th expiry.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 11th 2035/2015 put spreads for 1.25. Will add the call side with any move higher. Idea is to get 2.25 premium or better for the condor, with a 3.00 stop on each side, meaning max loss for the week is .75.
Possibly a volatile week ahead of FOMC next week. Last Thursday’s sharp, high volume decline followed by stunning reversal Friday demonstrate these are volatile markets, testing the nerves of index traders. Is this the new version of consolidation, with very wide swings? Don’t get whipsawed. Pick your entires carefully or find stocks and ETF’s that are immune to major market swings.
Today is Pearl Harbor Remembrance; a salute to our Veterans and to the Americans who fought or died, 74 years ago today.
Hope everyone is long and no one is short! I am neither.
$NXPI 75 puts
$SPX 2125/2145 call spreads
$SPX 2130/2155 call spreads
$UVXY 23 puts
$VLO 65 & 68.5 puts
$VLO 73 calls
Assignment:
$NXPI 85 calls, stock called away, leaving me flat in the name
Have a great weekend everyone! Thanks for everything.
#contangoetfs
STO $NUGT June 72 call for 4.10 (adding to my position, thanks @Ramie)
STO $ZSL May 40 puts for 1.30.
STO $ZSL Feb 45.5 puts for .90
Silver spiking today as well as gold, dropping ZSL to its lowest level since early November. These are now my only puts against a sizable short call position.
Today’s strength seems to indicate that the immediate downside danger is over. However, since these $VIX warnings fired twice within a month, it is likely there is some pain coming. These signals often can come weeks or months before a correction. With December often being a lighter, bullish month, be careful with your January positions as I would imagine more volatility is waiting until then.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 2155/2180 call spreads for 1.35. This is partial roll out of Dec 24th put spread stopped yesterday. Will add more next week.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.25. Second call spread for this expiry; first one was sold at Monday’s open (2175/2200).
#Earnings BTC $AMBA Dec 4th 54 puts for .15. Sold as part of iron condor yesterday for .85. Took this off near the open; now can be left to expire or taken off more cheaply.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 2175/2200 call spreads for 1.00. 1.5x position size, paired with 1890/1865 put spread below. Completes rollout of stopped Dec 31st spread.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 1890/1865 put spreads for 1.40. This is part of an iron condor roll from the stopped 12/31 put spread from yesterday. I will look to sell a call spread as well on further strength. This is 1.5x position size, seeking at least 2.15 in premium to make up for 3.30 cost of the the stop.
211,000 added in November, unemployment 5.0%. Probably gives Fed go-ahead to raise in December.
#VIXIndicator Yesterday The $VIX indicator developed for the #SPXcampaign fired a Downside Warning. This was due to a 25% rise over Tuesday’s close, and also a 50% rise from the latest VIX low on 10/28. This happened on Nov 13th as well, but then retraced back down as $SPX rallied. These are the first times since the indicator was developed that we have traded through it in real time. In backtesting, the Warning usually was followed by a correction, but sometimes it would be several weeks later. Today, we have the jobs report which could rally the market and nullify the signal, or it could lead to further downside. Watch your stops, protect your capital, take opportunities when they appear.
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Dec 18th 20 puts for .15. Sold for .65 avg price. If this is the extent of the correction I want to be able to sell these again.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 1950/1925 put spreads for 2.90.
Be careful with holding spreads overnight and over weekend that are close to stops.
The non-farm payrolls in the morning could add to further volatility, or also cause a large bounce.
#VXXGame STO $UVXY March 80 call for 4.40
STO UVXY Jan 2017 170 call for 8.75
These more than replace the ones I just closed and puts the danger comfortably farther in time and strike.
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Dec 11th 32 calls for 3.00. Sold for .75, .85, 1.00 yesterday. Will sell longer dated much higher calls to replace these.
The $VIX surpassed 18.34, which is 25% above Tuesday’s close. This is one of two signals we need to fire a Downside Warning on the #SPXcampaign. Next signal would be 19.20.
Additionally, this is the second time we’ve had signals fire since the VIX low on 10/28. A Warning did go into effect on 11/6, but since VIX retraced significantly that warning was nullified. However, because VIX has not reached a new low, we can consider any signals now slightly more urgent.
