Author Archives: Jeff
Econ Calendar 9/30 – 10/4
JOBS report Friday… potential market movers every other day, too.
SPX 0-dte for 9/27/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 5680/5700-5795/5815 condors for 1.10, IV 16.88%, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 5675/5695-5800/5820 condors for 1.40, IV 17.42%, deltas -.08 +.06. First time with strikes over 5800
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/25/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5660/5680-5770/5790 condors for 1.00, IV 16.11%, deltas -.07 +.06
Econ Calendar update
Guess I gotta check for updates more often. The current sharp drop seems driven by “CB Consumer Confidence” Data released at 10am ET, which was not on calendar when I copied it into the menu above but is there on Bloomberg’s site now.
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/24/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 24th 5690/5720-5725/5755 condors for 14.70, IV 17.70%
Premium was pretty low for the wide condor so I skipped it.
Upside Warning now in effect
#VIXindicator The last Upside Warning fired on Aug 13 when SPX was 6% above the latest low, and peaked on Aug 26 at 10.4% above the low, so it caught over 4% of upside. Currently the SPX is 6% above the Sept 6th low.
SPX 0-dte for 9/23/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 5630/5650-5755/5775 condors for 1.45, IV 19.88%, deltas -.07 +.07
Earnings 9/23 – 9/27
Economic Calendar 9/23 – 9/27
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/20/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5610/5630-5775/5795 condors for 1.10, IV 25.11%, deltas -.06, +.05. I went a strike further on call side just to reduce risk on a Friday in a week with strong profit already.
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/19/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 19th 5580/5600-5750/5770 condors for 1.90, IV 25.40%, deltas -.10, +.06
SPX 0-dte trades 9/18/24
#SPX0dte Well, taking the shot at an unpredictable move but high premium.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 18th 5600/5630-5635/5665 condors for 25.05.
Risking 4.95, which is just a bit more in my profit so far this week. For now I’m targeting to close at 20.00, for 5.05 profit. But I’ll keep an eye on the day and maybe take profits early if there’s some decay. On the announcement and/or press conference, premium can drop super fast, and if we are not too far from the center point, 20.00 should not be a problem. But if we are far from center, I can either brace for a drift back through center or take a loss smaller than 4.95.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator The Downside Warning was canceled at the open, due to the SPX exceeding 5651, which was the high between the last Upside & Downside warnings.
SPX 0-dte for 9/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5560/5580-5700/5720 condors for 1.20, IV 22.32%, deltas -.06 +.06, at 9:18am ET
SPX 0-dte for 9/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 5535/5555-5670/5690 condors for 1.30, IV 22.12%, deltas -.07 +.07. A bit tighter on deltas than normal, looking for sideways day with no economic news and traders waiting for Wednesday Fed decision.
Earnings 9/16 – 9/20
Economic Calendar 9/16 – 9/20
Retail sales on Tuesday, then the biggie: FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon.
Downside Warning may be done
#VIXindicator Just need a $VIX close below 16.46
SPX 0-dte for 9/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 5505/5525-5665/5685 condors for 1.15, IV 24.20%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/12/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 12th 5460/5480-5615/5635 condors for 1.383, IV 26.06%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5385/5405-5555/5575 condors for 1.35, IV 29.67%, deltas -.06 +.05, at 8:50a ET
CPI up 0.2% in August
From cnbc.com:
Prices increased as expected in August while the annual inflation rate declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that sets the stage for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in a week.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus.
That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level and compared to the estimate for 2.6%.
However, so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate was 3.2%, in line with the forecast.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 10th 5380/5400-5535/5555 condors for 1.40, IV 25.66%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/9/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 5320/5340-5505/5525 condors for 1.40, IV 30.91%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 9/9 – 9/13
Economic Calendar 9/9 – 9/13
CPI Wednesday, Bond Auction Thursday
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/6
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 6th 5385/5405-5585/5605 condors for 1.55, IV 35.83%, deltas -.06 +.06
August Jobs Report
#Jobs — Close to expectations, with drop in UE
Gain of +142,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 161K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 4.2%, as expected
U6 unemployment 7.9%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +3.8% Y/Y
June jobs revised down by -61K to +118K
July jobs revised down by -25K to +89K
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/5
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 5th 5410/5430-5585/5605 condors for 1.35, IV 29.35%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/4
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5400/5420-5585/5605 condors for 1.35, IV 31.50%, deltas -.06 +.06
JOLT numbers released at 10am could throw a monkey in my wrench but I’m getting a decent width here so going with typical 6-delta sale.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator The high $VIX close on Tuesday signals a likelihood of lower indexes in the coming days or weeks.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator $VIX above 18.74… if we close above it we will be in Downside Warning.
This Upside Warning lasted three weeks and at the high last Monday was good for +217.19 on $SPX, or about +4%.
CBOE extends pre-market SPX trading
Effective last week (I didn’t notice until this morning), SPX has only a 5-minute pause between pre-market and trading and the open. So you can trade pre-market until 9:25am ET.
SPX 0-dte for 9/3
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 3rd 5540/5560-5685/5705 condors for 1.15, IV 22.11%, deltas -.06 +.05
Earnings 9/2 – 9/6
Economic Calendar 9/2 – 9/6
ISM, JOLT, PMI, August Jobs report
SPX 0-dte for 8/30/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 30th 5525/5545-5670/5690 condors for 1.05, IV 22.49%, deltas -.06 +.05
Why the drop?
If anyone knows why this late day drop happened please reply. I’m guessing it was bond auction but don’t know where to find the info.
SPX 0-dte for 8/29/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5670/5690 condors for 1.10, IV 26.10%, deltas -.06 +.04
SPX 0-dte for 8/28/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 28th 5555/5575-5665/5685 condors for 1.10, IV 17.56%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades 8/27/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 27th 5535/5555-5660/5680 condors for 1.05, IV 19.55%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte for 8/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 5560/5580-5685/5705 condors for .90, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 18.45%
Earnings 8/26 – 8/30
NVDA on Wednesday… also this week CRM, BBY, DG, LULU, ULTA
Economic Calendar 8/26 – 8/30
GDP on Thursday, PCE on Friday
SPX 0-dte for 8/23/24
#SPX0dte. Waited until Powell’s speech start time. Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 5505/5525-5680/5700 condors for 1.40, deltas -.07 +.05. Leaning bullish and I can see already we’re moving in that direction.
Bearish engulfing
That’s what you call today’s candle, since it fully engulfs yesterday’s green candle. Could signal the uptrend is ending or waning.
SPX 0-dte for 8/22/24
#SPX0dte. Pretty glad I had to be out today, otherwise I would have traded soemthing this morning and taken a loss. Now I’m trying for a scalp at day’s end: Sold to Open Aug 22nd 5555/5575-5580/5600 condors for 8.00.
SPX 0-dte for 8/21/24
#SPX0dte At 9:57p ET, sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5650/5670 condors for 1.30, IV 15.39%, deltas -.06 +.06
With overnight moves being minor and premium/width returning to anemic, I’m selling night before to get more juice.
SPX 0-dte for 8/20/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5545/5565-5645/5665 condors for 1.30, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 15.80%
These trades have already returned to their anemic premium and width from before the mini-crash. After yesterday’s strong move higher I am going more aggressive with higher deltas, thinking that a ninth straight day of gains is less likely than an eighth, but also assuming there won’t be any dramatic collapse.
SPX 0-dte trades 8/19/24
#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Aug 19th 5480/5500-5605/5625 condors for 1.072, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 19.02%
Earnings 8/19 – 8/23
Economic Calendar 8/19 – 8/23
SPX 0-dte 8/16/24
#SPX0dte Just after the open, Sold to Open $SPX Aug 16th 5435/5455-5585/5605 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.99%
SPX 0-dte 8/15/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 5495/5525-5530/5560 condors for 12.30, IV 19.02%
What a sea change across the week. Less than 2 hours after open and the ATM condor only around 12 bucks. Last Friday this didn’t happen until 45 minutes before close.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 5345/5365-5510/5530 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 29.51%
Bullish leaning.
Upside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator Expect higher levels in the market over the coming days or weeks.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 13th 5265/5285-5420/5440 condors for 1.20, IV 28.26%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/12/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 5255/5275-5415/5435 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 26.88%
Earnings 8/12 – 8/16
(Previous post was in error and was deleted)
Highlights: WMT, BABA, HD, DE, AMAT
Economic Calendar 8/12 – 8/16
CPI on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday
Downside Warning canceled*
#VIXindicator This cancelation comes with an asterisk*…. the Fib retracement of recent $VIX low and high was abnormally high (22.42) due to Monday’s extreme VIX high over 65. Based on past performance, I still believe this signal is likely to work, but perhaps just less likely than normal. The recovery after Monday was remarkable, so Monday was probably just a temper tantrum and we will now resume the steady tick higher.
SPX 0-dte trades 8/9/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 5190/5170 put spreads for 1.00, delta -.07, IV 43.78%
After three straight days of being stopped on call side I’m going to try to leg in today, and since we are down a bit now starting with put side. Of course, this likely means today will NOT see a spike higher.
SPX 0-dte trades for 8/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 8th 5115/5135-5345/5365 condors for 1.70, IV 46.46%, deltas -.06 +.07
Waited until after the open today… zero for two this week on these so maybe this will work.
SPX 0-dte trades 8/7/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 5150/5170-5370/5390 condors for 1.70, IV 38.77%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte for 8/6/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 6th 5060/5080-5330/5350 condors for 1.65, IV 51.15%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX end of day
#SPX0dte At 12:26p PT, sold to open $SPX Aug 5th 5145/5175-5180/5210 condors for 14.45, IV a lot. BTC at 12:49 for 12.50, about 10%. Was going for 10.00 but it looked to be threatening to go lower so I got out. Had I waited a minute longer, it would have hit 10.00! It didn’t hit my expiration breakeven point so I probably shouldn’t have chickened out, but when down 3%, fear is a factor.
Earnings 8/5 – 8/9
Highlights this week: CAT, UBER, DIS, SHOP, RIVN
Economic Calendar 8/5 – 8/9
Relatively quiet week for data, after Services and ISM PMI on Monday.
SPX trades for 8/2/24
#SPX0dte I stayed away most of Friday, even though I modeled a couple of wide condors which would have been easy wins. The tight condors lose value at a very slow rate on these high volatility days. They were around 21.00 at the open and still almost 20.00 four hours later. My plan was to wait until much closer to the close, as I did on Wednesday.
(All times I mention and on the chart are PACIFIC). By 11am, it looked as if enough consolidation was forming to make the trade viable. I liked the condor centered at 30-35, but then it dropped and was hovering around 15. So I sold the 15-20, after which it went right back up to 30-35 and resumed consolidation there. Premium was dropping but not enough because I was off center. So I covered for 8% profit and immediately reentered the 30-35 for 15.95, with only 46 minutes left in day. Premium began draining. The red dashed lines represent the expiration breakevens for this trade. As long as those were not breached, I was safe from loss. It got down to 8.00 at 12:54 and I covered, 50% profit. Had I let it go, I could have gotten out for around 6.00 a few minutes later, but had I let it expire, I would have paid 11.56.
So, this is the first major volatility I’ve seen since starting this trade early this year. It’s clear this trade is good near the open in low-VOL, but this end-of-day trade can be a winner in hi-VOL. I think you need to see some consolidation in middle of the day; if not, the wide moves could continue all the way to the close. For instance, this trade would not have been as easy on Tuesday or Thursday this week. Also, it’s best to get out before close, as too often the last two 5-min bars can be quite big and throw you outside breakeven very quickly.
July Jobs Report
#Jobs — Drop in job gains, below expectations, UE ticks up
Gain of +114,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 175K
Unemployment up 0.2% to 4.3%, highest since Oct 2021
U6 unemployment 7.8%, up by 0.4
Labor force participation up 0.1 to 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; +3.6% Y/Y
May jobs revised down by -2K to +216K
June jobs revised down by -27K to +179K
SPX 0-dte for 8/1/24
#SPX0dte At 11:21pm ET, sold to Open $SPX Aug 1st 5435/5455-5610/5630 condors for 1.65, IV 20.35%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte I would have stayed away but I was smarting from yesterday so I took a shot. I liked the pullback from the HoD and sold the $SPX July 31st 5500/5530-5535/5565 condors for 15.20 at 3:21p ET. White knuckled through the dip and it came back to center and exited for 11.00. Over 15.00 with only 39 minutes left in the day is super… but we all know this thing can move FAR in the last hour on FOMC decision days.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 30th 5375/5395-5535/5555 condors for 1.35, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 16.21%
Sorry for not posting today, I just got back from Colorado last night. I sold a wide condor last night and two tight condors today for a total of +3.65. Hopefully tomorrow will be another quiet day so I can avoid Wednesday altogether.
Options Bistro 