#Jobs — Much lower than expected, likely reflecting hurricane effects
Gain of +12,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 100K
Unemployment unchanged at 4.1%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.7%, unchanged
Labor force participation down 0.1 at 62.6%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +4.0% Y/Y
August jobs revised down by -81K to +78K
September jobs revised down by -31K to +223K
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 5705/5725-5845/5865 condors for 1.25, IV 22.59%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 30th 5760/5780-5875/5895 condors for 1.30, IV 18.47%, deltas -.07 +.07
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 29th 5740/5760-5860/5880 condors for 1.15, IV 18.58%, deltas -.06 +.07
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 28th 5750/5770-5880/5900 condors for 1.10, IV 19.10%, deltas -.07 +.05
Deltas seem a bit off again… despite the delta put being 2 pts higher than the call, the premium I’m getting from the call side is twice as much as the put side.
The BIG WEEK, including Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Apple.
REVISIONS – see comment
A little something each day except Monday; Jobs report on Friday.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 5745/5765-5865/5885 condors for 1.30, IV 18.10, deltas -.06 +.07, sold 17 minutes before the open.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 24th 5730/5750-5855/5875 condors for 1.00, IV 20.50%, deltas -.06 +.06
I waited until after open on this one since recently selling before open hasn’t given much edge.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 23rd 5770/5790-5880/5900 condors for 0.969, IV 15.96%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 22nd 5765/5785-5885/5905 condors for 1.05, IV 17.93%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold top open $SPX Oct 21st 5805/5785 put spreads for .65, IV 15.86%, delta -.07
With overnight movement it looks like we could be near bottom of a swing, so I’m not going to sell a call side with such low premium when we have room to rise.
Tesla, Boeing, IBM all on Wednesday
Significant data releases on Wed, Thur, Fri
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5780/5800-5900/5920 condors for 1.10, IV 17.95%, deltas -.07 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 17th 5835/5865-5870/5900 condors for 15.35, IV 18.33%
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 16th 5740/5760-5865/5885 condors for 1.10, IV 18.29%, deltas -.06 +.06
Third day’s a charm? Two days straight of no econ data but still big moves and stops on this trade. Thought about going long with this instead, but I think chances are stronger that today will quiet down ahead of tomorrow’s data. But I’m ready to exit early if we start to move.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 15th 5800/5820-5900/5920 condors for 1.25, IV 16.85%, deltas -.08 +.07
Waited for the open then went a bit aggressive since no overnight moves and no data releases today.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 5745/5765-5860/5880 condors for 1.10, IV 16.34%, deltas -.06 +.06
Fairly quiet week except for Thursday with Retail Sales, Philly Fed, and ECB rate decision.
Bond market closed on Monday
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 5710/5730-5825/5845 condors for 1.25, IV 18.48%, deltas -.07 +.07
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 10th 5690/5710-5840/5860 condors for 1.20, IV 24.40%, deltas -.07 +.04
Leaning bullish on this since I feel the dip will bounce back.
US Sept. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% M/M; Est. +0.1%, 2.4% Y/Y; Est. +2.3%
Sept. Core CPI Rises 0.3% M/M; Est. +0.2%, 2.4% Y/Y; Est. +2.3%
#VIXIndicator. New $SPX high means the DW is canceled. That may be the fakest headfake I’ve ever seen this indicator produce. I don’t know why $VIX is so high, but can only guess it has to do with the trader uncertainty about how fast rates will come down, which seems to be a silly fear given the strength of just about everything right now.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5665/5686-5795/5815 condors for 1.00, IV 19.03%, deltas -.06 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 8th 5615/5635-5760/5780 condors for 1.25, IV 22.15%, deltas -.06 +.06
#VIXindicator The high $VIX close on Monday was over 50% higher than the recent low of 14.90. This fires the Downside Warning. The last one fired on Sept 3rd and was only good for an additional 2% down over 4 days.
#VIXindicator. Afternoon surprise… despite the volatility last week the Upside Warning survived. Not today. A Downside warning will take effect if $VIX closes above 22.34.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 5640/5660-5790/5810 condors for 1.10, IV 22.90%, deltas -.06 +.05
Final earnings season of the year kicks off Friday with bank earnings.
Two bond auctions this week, and the big CPI on Thursday.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 5635/5655-5800/5820 condors for 1.35, IV 26.95%, deltas -.08 +.05
I waited for the first red candle after the Jobs report on the 5-min futures chart. Took 35 minutes.
#Jobs — Wildly beating expectations, including upward revisions to July and August
Gain of +254,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 151K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 4.1%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.7%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +4.0% Y/Y
August jobs revised up by +17K to +159K
July jobs revised up by +55K to +144K
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd 5610/5630-5765/5785 condors for 1.25, IV 24.96%, deltas -.06 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 5605/5625-5765/5785 condors for 1.15, IV 24.61%, deltas -.05 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5670/5690-5810/5830 condors for 1.25, IV 21.54%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 5630/5650-5780/5800 condors for 1.20, IV 23.12%, deltas -.06 +.06
$VIX moving higher and deltas wider than last week
JOBS report Friday… potential market movers every other day, too.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 5680/5700-5795/5815 condors for 1.10, IV 16.88%, deltas -.07 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 5675/5695-5800/5820 condors for 1.40, IV 17.42%, deltas -.08 +.06. First time with strikes over 5800
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5660/5680-5770/5790 condors for 1.00, IV 16.11%, deltas -.07 +.06
Guess I gotta check for updates more often. The current sharp drop seems driven by “CB Consumer Confidence” Data released at 10am ET, which was not on calendar when I copied it into the menu above but is there on Bloomberg’s site now.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 24th 5690/5720-5725/5755 condors for 14.70, IV 17.70%
Premium was pretty low for the wide condor so I skipped it.
#VIXindicator The last Upside Warning fired on Aug 13 when SPX was 6% above the latest low, and peaked on Aug 26 at 10.4% above the low, so it caught over 4% of upside. Currently the SPX is 6% above the Sept 6th low.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 5630/5650-5755/5775 condors for 1.45, IV 19.88%, deltas -.07 +.07
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5610/5630-5775/5795 condors for 1.10, IV 25.11%, deltas -.06, +.05. I went a strike further on call side just to reduce risk on a Friday in a week with strong profit already.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 19th 5580/5600-5750/5770 condors for 1.90, IV 25.40%, deltas -.10, +.06
#SPX0dte Well, taking the shot at an unpredictable move but high premium.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 18th 5600/5630-5635/5665 condors for 25.05.
Risking 4.95, which is just a bit more in my profit so far this week. For now I’m targeting to close at 20.00, for 5.05 profit. But I’ll keep an eye on the day and maybe take profits early if there’s some decay. On the announcement and/or press conference, premium can drop super fast, and if we are not too far from the center point, 20.00 should not be a problem. But if we are far from center, I can either brace for a drift back through center or take a loss smaller than 4.95.
#VIXindicator The Downside Warning was canceled at the open, due to the SPX exceeding 5651, which was the high between the last Upside & Downside warnings.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5560/5580-5700/5720 condors for 1.20, IV 22.32%, deltas -.06 +.06, at 9:18am ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 5535/5555-5670/5690 condors for 1.30, IV 22.12%, deltas -.07 +.07. A bit tighter on deltas than normal, looking for sideways day with no economic news and traders waiting for Wednesday Fed decision.
Retail sales on Tuesday, then the biggie: FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon.
#VIXindicator Just need a $VIX close below 16.46
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 5505/5525-5665/5685 condors for 1.15, IV 24.20%, deltas -.06 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 12th 5460/5480-5615/5635 condors for 1.383, IV 26.06%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5385/5405-5555/5575 condors for 1.35, IV 29.67%, deltas -.06 +.05, at 8:50a ET
From cnbc.com:
Prices increased as expected in August while the annual inflation rate declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that sets the stage for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in a week.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus.
That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level and compared to the estimate for 2.6%.
However, so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate was 3.2%, in line with the forecast.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 10th 5380/5400-5535/5555 condors for 1.40, IV 25.66%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 5320/5340-5505/5525 condors for 1.40, IV 30.91%, deltas -.06 +.06
CPI Wednesday, Bond Auction Thursday
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 6th 5385/5405-5585/5605 condors for 1.55, IV 35.83%, deltas -.06 +.06
#Jobs — Close to expectations, with drop in UE
Gain of +142,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 161K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 4.2%, as expected
U6 unemployment 7.9%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +3.8% Y/Y
June jobs revised down by -61K to +118K
July jobs revised down by -25K to +89K
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 5th 5410/5430-5585/5605 condors for 1.35, IV 29.35%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5400/5420-5585/5605 condors for 1.35, IV 31.50%, deltas -.06 +.06
JOLT numbers released at 10am could throw a monkey in my wrench but I’m getting a decent width here so going with typical 6-delta sale.
#VIXindicator The high $VIX close on Tuesday signals a likelihood of lower indexes in the coming days or weeks.
#VIXindicator $VIX above 18.74… if we close above it we will be in Downside Warning.
This Upside Warning lasted three weeks and at the high last Monday was good for +217.19 on $SPX, or about +4%.
Effective last week (I didn’t notice until this morning), SPX has only a 5-minute pause between pre-market and trading and the open. So you can trade pre-market until 9:25am ET.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 3rd 5540/5560-5685/5705 condors for 1.15, IV 22.11%, deltas -.06 +.05
Options Bistro 