#Jobs — Wildly beating expectations, including upward revisions to July and August
Gain of +254,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 151K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 4.1%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.7%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +4.0% Y/Y
August jobs revised up by +17K to +159K
July jobs revised up by +55K to +144K
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd 5610/5630-5765/5785 condors for 1.25, IV 24.96%, deltas -.06 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 5605/5625-5765/5785 condors for 1.15, IV 24.61%, deltas -.05 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5670/5690-5810/5830 condors for 1.25, IV 21.54%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 5630/5650-5780/5800 condors for 1.20, IV 23.12%, deltas -.06 +.06
$VIX moving higher and deltas wider than last week
JOBS report Friday… potential market movers every other day, too.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 5680/5700-5795/5815 condors for 1.10, IV 16.88%, deltas -.07 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 5675/5695-5800/5820 condors for 1.40, IV 17.42%, deltas -.08 +.06. First time with strikes over 5800
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5660/5680-5770/5790 condors for 1.00, IV 16.11%, deltas -.07 +.06
Guess I gotta check for updates more often. The current sharp drop seems driven by “CB Consumer Confidence” Data released at 10am ET, which was not on calendar when I copied it into the menu above but is there on Bloomberg’s site now.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 24th 5690/5720-5725/5755 condors for 14.70, IV 17.70%
Premium was pretty low for the wide condor so I skipped it.
#VIXindicator The last Upside Warning fired on Aug 13 when SPX was 6% above the latest low, and peaked on Aug 26 at 10.4% above the low, so it caught over 4% of upside. Currently the SPX is 6% above the Sept 6th low.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 5630/5650-5755/5775 condors for 1.45, IV 19.88%, deltas -.07 +.07
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5610/5630-5775/5795 condors for 1.10, IV 25.11%, deltas -.06, +.05. I went a strike further on call side just to reduce risk on a Friday in a week with strong profit already.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 19th 5580/5600-5750/5770 condors for 1.90, IV 25.40%, deltas -.10, +.06
#SPX0dte Well, taking the shot at an unpredictable move but high premium.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 18th 5600/5630-5635/5665 condors for 25.05.
Risking 4.95, which is just a bit more in my profit so far this week. For now I’m targeting to close at 20.00, for 5.05 profit. But I’ll keep an eye on the day and maybe take profits early if there’s some decay. On the announcement and/or press conference, premium can drop super fast, and if we are not too far from the center point, 20.00 should not be a problem. But if we are far from center, I can either brace for a drift back through center or take a loss smaller than 4.95.
#VIXindicator The Downside Warning was canceled at the open, due to the SPX exceeding 5651, which was the high between the last Upside & Downside warnings.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5560/5580-5700/5720 condors for 1.20, IV 22.32%, deltas -.06 +.06, at 9:18am ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 5535/5555-5670/5690 condors for 1.30, IV 22.12%, deltas -.07 +.07. A bit tighter on deltas than normal, looking for sideways day with no economic news and traders waiting for Wednesday Fed decision.
Retail sales on Tuesday, then the biggie: FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon.
#VIXindicator Just need a $VIX close below 16.46
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 5505/5525-5665/5685 condors for 1.15, IV 24.20%, deltas -.06 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 12th 5460/5480-5615/5635 condors for 1.383, IV 26.06%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5385/5405-5555/5575 condors for 1.35, IV 29.67%, deltas -.06 +.05, at 8:50a ET
From cnbc.com:
Prices increased as expected in August while the annual inflation rate declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that sets the stage for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in a week.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus.
That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level and compared to the estimate for 2.6%.
However, so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate was 3.2%, in line with the forecast.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 10th 5380/5400-5535/5555 condors for 1.40, IV 25.66%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 5320/5340-5505/5525 condors for 1.40, IV 30.91%, deltas -.06 +.06
CPI Wednesday, Bond Auction Thursday
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 6th 5385/5405-5585/5605 condors for 1.55, IV 35.83%, deltas -.06 +.06
#Jobs — Close to expectations, with drop in UE
Gain of +142,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 161K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 4.2%, as expected
U6 unemployment 7.9%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +3.8% Y/Y
June jobs revised down by -61K to +118K
July jobs revised down by -25K to +89K
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 5th 5410/5430-5585/5605 condors for 1.35, IV 29.35%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5400/5420-5585/5605 condors for 1.35, IV 31.50%, deltas -.06 +.06
JOLT numbers released at 10am could throw a monkey in my wrench but I’m getting a decent width here so going with typical 6-delta sale.
#VIXindicator The high $VIX close on Tuesday signals a likelihood of lower indexes in the coming days or weeks.
#VIXindicator $VIX above 18.74… if we close above it we will be in Downside Warning.
This Upside Warning lasted three weeks and at the high last Monday was good for +217.19 on $SPX, or about +4%.
Effective last week (I didn’t notice until this morning), SPX has only a 5-minute pause between pre-market and trading and the open. So you can trade pre-market until 9:25am ET.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 3rd 5540/5560-5685/5705 condors for 1.15, IV 22.11%, deltas -.06 +.05
ISM, JOLT, PMI, August Jobs report
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 30th 5525/5545-5670/5690 condors for 1.05, IV 22.49%, deltas -.06 +.05
If anyone knows why this late day drop happened please reply. I’m guessing it was bond auction but don’t know where to find the info.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5670/5690 condors for 1.10, IV 26.10%, deltas -.06 +.04
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 28th 5555/5575-5665/5685 condors for 1.10, IV 17.56%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 27th 5535/5555-5660/5680 condors for 1.05, IV 19.55%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 5560/5580-5685/5705 condors for .90, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 18.45%
NVDA on Wednesday… also this week CRM, BBY, DG, LULU, ULTA
GDP on Thursday, PCE on Friday
#SPX0dte. Waited until Powell’s speech start time. Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 5505/5525-5680/5700 condors for 1.40, deltas -.07 +.05. Leaning bullish and I can see already we’re moving in that direction.
That’s what you call today’s candle, since it fully engulfs yesterday’s green candle. Could signal the uptrend is ending or waning.
#SPX0dte. Pretty glad I had to be out today, otherwise I would have traded soemthing this morning and taken a loss. Now I’m trying for a scalp at day’s end: Sold to Open Aug 22nd 5555/5575-5580/5600 condors for 8.00.
#SPX0dte At 9:57p ET, sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5650/5670 condors for 1.30, IV 15.39%, deltas -.06 +.06
With overnight moves being minor and premium/width returning to anemic, I’m selling night before to get more juice.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5545/5565-5645/5665 condors for 1.30, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 15.80%
These trades have already returned to their anemic premium and width from before the mini-crash. After yesterday’s strong move higher I am going more aggressive with higher deltas, thinking that a ninth straight day of gains is less likely than an eighth, but also assuming there won’t be any dramatic collapse.
#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Aug 19th 5480/5500-5605/5625 condors for 1.072, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 19.02%
#SPX0dte Just after the open, Sold to Open $SPX Aug 16th 5435/5455-5585/5605 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.99%
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 5495/5525-5530/5560 condors for 12.30, IV 19.02%
What a sea change across the week. Less than 2 hours after open and the ATM condor only around 12 bucks. Last Friday this didn’t happen until 45 minutes before close.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 5345/5365-5510/5530 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 29.51%
Bullish leaning.
#VIXindicator Expect higher levels in the market over the coming days or weeks.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 13th 5265/5285-5420/5440 condors for 1.20, IV 28.26%, deltas -.07 +.05
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 5255/5275-5415/5435 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 26.88%
(Previous post was in error and was deleted)
Highlights: WMT, BABA, HD, DE, AMAT
CPI on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday
#VIXindicator This cancelation comes with an asterisk*…. the Fib retracement of recent $VIX low and high was abnormally high (22.42) due to Monday’s extreme VIX high over 65. Based on past performance, I still believe this signal is likely to work, but perhaps just less likely than normal. The recovery after Monday was remarkable, so Monday was probably just a temper tantrum and we will now resume the steady tick higher.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 5190/5170 put spreads for 1.00, delta -.07, IV 43.78%
After three straight days of being stopped on call side I’m going to try to leg in today, and since we are down a bit now starting with put side. Of course, this likely means today will NOT see a spike higher.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 8th 5115/5135-5345/5365 condors for 1.70, IV 46.46%, deltas -.06 +.07
Waited until after the open today… zero for two this week on these so maybe this will work.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 5150/5170-5370/5390 condors for 1.70, IV 38.77%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 6th 5060/5080-5330/5350 condors for 1.65, IV 51.15%, deltas -.06 +.06
#SPX0dte At 12:26p PT, sold to open $SPX Aug 5th 5145/5175-5180/5210 condors for 14.45, IV a lot. BTC at 12:49 for 12.50, about 10%. Was going for 10.00 but it looked to be threatening to go lower so I got out. Had I waited a minute longer, it would have hit 10.00! It didn’t hit my expiration breakeven point so I probably shouldn’t have chickened out, but when down 3%, fear is a factor.
Highlights this week: CAT, UBER, DIS, SHOP, RIVN
Relatively quiet week for data, after Services and ISM PMI on Monday.
Options Bistro 