Amazon and Apple on Thursday
Author Archives: Jeff
Economic Calendar 7/29 – 8/2
SPX 0-dte trades 7/26/24
#SPX0dte Bought to Open $SPX July 26th 5420/5450-5455/5485 condors for -18.50 at 11:26am, sold to close at 12:06 for 20.50.
Going long has been best bet this week, although today certainly quieter than yesterday so not pressing this beyond 2 bucks. May try again in a bit when the ATM condors are cheaper and require less of a move to turn profit.
SPX trades 7/25/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 5330/5350-5500/5520 condors for 1.35, IV 29.61%, deltas -.06 +.07
A 150-pt spread and now that data caused only minor movement we might have a quieter day than yesterday.
I didn’t post yesterday because I was experimenting with a bearish bias. I lost a bit with an overnight short condor, fortunately getting a little bump higher at the open that allowed me to get out. Then I BOUGHT the ATM tight condor for 18.50, and later closed it for 22.50. Could have let it expire and gotten 30. I also made a couple more bucks by buying a put spread with 25 minutes before close and cashing out at expiration. A good day but a bit haphazard and off-plan. More often lately, buying rather than selling is the safer bet.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator We touched on a new low on Friday of 10.62, but it seemed like some anomaly and I thought it might be corrected. But it remains on the charts, which means the upside warning was actually canceled on that same day, when VIX hit 50% above that low, and closed that way which would have meant a Downside Warning. Now that we see the activity this week, that warning is solid.
But in any case, we just hit over 50% of the previous 11.52 low (May 23rd), so now the Upside Warning is officially canceled.
Measuring from the 10.62 low, if we close above 15.93 it will mean a downside warning.
SPX 0-dte trades 7/23/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 23rd 5530/5560-5565/5595 condors for 16.95, IV 20.17%
Last Night: Sold July 23rd 5480/5500-5615/5635 condors for 1.25, deltas -.08 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/22/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5510/5540-5545/5575 condors for 17.25, IV 21.49%, at 9:33 ET
Earnings 7/22 – 7/26
Economic Calendar 7/22 – 7/26
SPX 0-dte trades 7/19/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 19th 5520/5550-5555/5585 condors for 19.70, IV 25.31%, at 8:15am.
No hedge trade at the moment. Looking for 10%.
SPX 0-dte trades 7/18/24
#SPX0dte So after two days out of three with the long trade doing nicely and the short one doing poorly, I decided to only buy the hedge long condor last night and wait for morning for the short.
Last night, bought to open $SPX July 18th 5500/5520-5670/5690 condors for 1.05, deltas -.05 +.05.
This was pretty wide and a nice condor to SELL, or even a strike or two tighter in. Sure enough it is down to about .60 now. But still there for a hedge in case we get a big bounce or collapse. Looking to enter ATM after the open, unless we swing wildly from 8:30 data.
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX July 17th 5630/5660-5665/5695 condors for 17.05, IV 12.67%, at 11:44p ET
Bought to open 5585/5605-5710/5730 condors for .95, delta -.05 +.04
SPX o-dte trades for 7/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 16th 5610/5640-5645/5675 condors for 17.40, IV 13.14%, at 11:12 p ET
Also buying: 5560/5580-5690/5710 for 1.00 or 1.05 (not filled yet), deltas -.05 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades 7/15
#SPX0dte. Trying something new this week. Last night I sold the typical centered ATM condor for 16.25. But I also BOUGHT a 6-delta condor for 1.05.
My thinking is the long wide is hedge against the short narrow. This seems to be a solution to handling the wild swings we’ve been seeing.
If there is a strong move, it is likely that I would still be at a loss but a much smaller one. If there is a super strong move, some of which we have seen in recent days, it would be a 4 to 5 dollar winner at expiration, if left alone.
We did get a bullish move overnight and after open I stopped out the narrow for 18.25. Now I am watching my long calls on the wide (5670/5690) to take profits. Currently at 2.00, if I can get to 3.00 it will be breakeven for the day, profit if higher than that.
After watching today, it may have been best to stop out of the narrow before the open (could have done it for 17.00, only -.75 loss), and either let the long condor run or potentially add a new centered narrow after the open. But based on the upward action right now and the last few weeks, it has been a very directional intraday market and perhaps just buying long spreads is the only thing needed.
Earnings 7/15 – 7/19
Economic Calendar 7/15 – 7/19
Retail Sales Tuesday morning
TICKs are weird
#TICK I don’t know if anyone else watches TICK closely like I do, or have insight on it, but it just hasn’t been behaving normally in last few months. Like today it was consistently above +600 but SPX was kind of going sideways at the 5616 level. Then, when TICKS started trending DOWN, SPX took another strong leg UP 10 points. It used to kind of mimic the market minute to minute but lately tends to actually *counter* the S&P.
SPX 0-dte trades 7/12/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 12th 5515/5535-5635/5655 condors for .90, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 17.62%, at 8:38 ET.
A brief dip but back to centered from the PPI data release… we are flat from yesterday’s close. Two days of heavy moves followed by a quiet Friday? We shall see…
I got 100-point width even after the data release which is better than mornings have been for awhile.
SPX 0-dte trades 7/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 10th 5530/5550-5620/5640 condors for .90, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 12.90
#SPXah Placed tight condor centered at 5080/5085 for 13.80 last night. Was doing fine until this sudden spike that started around 7:30am ET, so I stopped out for 14.35. May look to try another one after the open.
REVISION to calendar – Powell testimony
REVISION: Powell testimony today (Tuesday) is 10am ET…. same as Wednesday.
SPX 0-dte trades 7/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 5500/5520-5600/5620 condors for .80, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 12.61%, at 8:18am ET
Last Night: At 12:16am ET sold to Open $SPX 5525/5555-5560/5590 condors for 14.20. Of course, in this market it is being tested to the upside, currently around 15.00. Would like to close before the open and possibly place a new one ATM.
Earnings 7/8 – 7/12
The banks start reporting on Friday to kick off earnings season.
Economic Calendar 7/8 – 7/12
REVISION: Powell testimony on Tuesday is 10am ET…. same as Wednesday.
The big CPI on Thursday
SPX 0-dte trades 7/5/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 5th 5505/5535-5540/5570 condors for 13.60, IV 15.76%
June Jobs Report
#Jobs — Gains beat expectations again, but drop in prior months
Gain of +206,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 190K
Unemployment up 0.1% to 4.1%, vs expectation of unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.4%, unchanged
Labor force participation up 0.1 to 62.6%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; +3.9% Y/Y
May jobs revised down by -54K to +218K
April jobs revised down by -57K to +108K
SPX 0-dte trades for 7/3
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 3rd 5475/5505-5510/5540 condors for 10.05, IV 11.16%
Low premium due to a short day. Overnight action was in a pretty small range. May or may not close before 9:45/10:00 data release. Market closes at 1pm ET.
SPX 0-dte trades 7/2
#SPX0dte I placed a trade last night around my usual time when I shouldn’t have. The move from the close to 9pm PT was downward, and I want to place this trade only if that move is mostly flat. But I had been encouraged by the resilience of the premium lately so I placed it anyway.
At 12:28am ET, sold to open $SPX July 2nd 5435/5465-5470/5500 condors for 15.478
The downward move continued and premium maxed at 18.75 at around 7:53am. We bounced enough and I just closed for 15.30, so breakeven after commissions. The resilience saved me but my condor is too off-center to risk going into Powell’s speech and JOLT release. I will consider possibilities after 10am.
SPX 0-dte trades 7/1
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 1st 5445/5475-5480/5510 condors for 16.05, IV 13.25%, at 12:26am
Earnings 7/1 – 7/5
Barely worth posting, but for the sake of consistency…
Economic Calemdar 7/1 – 7/5
Actually a fair amount of data coming in the Holiday week.
Picked the right day
What a day to skip for a neutral trader. Overnight was UP, and after a brief pullback before the open, we’re now at all-time highs again. This week’s $9+ profit made up for my past 5 losing and breakeven weeks, so I was comfortable skipping today. Fridays have been bad to me this year so happy to skip this one. Hoping for a few days of opportunities on the holiday week before next Friday’s job report.
SPX 0-dte trades 6/27/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 27th 5445/5475-5480/5510 condors for 13.559, IV 15.23%, at 8:53 ET.
SPX 0-dte trades 6/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 26th 5440/5470-5475/5505 condors for 14.55, IV 15.28%, at 8:12am ET
SPX 0-dte trades 6/25/24
#SPX0dte Last night at 12:13am ET, sold to open $SPX Jun 25th 5425/5455-5460/5490 condors for 15.723. Didn’t get much decay overnight… price was 15.30 around 8am when structure was very close to centered ATM. But since then, it has dropped to 14.00. Considering when to exit.
This demonstrates how little decay there is overnight and that it really starts in earnest after 8am. Overnight risk may not be worth it, even if probability of stop-out is low.
SPX 0-dte trades 6/24/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 24th 5405/5425-5505/5525 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 15.65%
Earnings 6/24 – 6/28
Economic Calendar 6/24 – 6/28
Lotsa stuff dropping Friday
SPX 0-dte trades 6/21/24
#SPX0dte As posted below, at last night’s close I sold to open $SPX Jun 21st 5395/5415-5530/5550 condors for 1.15, IV 14.91%, deltas -.07 +.06. This morning, IV is 21.92%, and a similar delta condor is going for the same or more. The night-before entry didn’t help me. It may be the 9:45 PMI data, but traders knew that was coming yesterday too. Overnight moves were minor.
#SPXah Last night at 9:07pm PT sold to Open $SPX 5445/5475-5480/5510 condors for 18.35. At the overnight low (about 1:40am PT) it got up to 19.43. Now as we are currently rising in premarket, it is 17.70. I will close this before PMI. High to low swing overnight was over 20 points, so I’m glad to see it only got a buck in the hole. However, the IV remains high this morning so decay has been minimal.
SPX 0dte trades 6/20/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 20th 5435/5455-5540/5560 condor for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 16.05%
Overnight strategy details
#SPX0dte #SPXah I started “#SPXah” hashtag for this. It is basically the same IB/condor trade we have been doing same-day but placed around 9pm Pacific and closed before the next day’s open. I recently discovered that SPX options can be traded from 5:15pm to 6:15am PT, whereas before I thought it was only 3a-6:15a.
(I’m usually post times in ET but using PT time here since that’s where I live)
Overnight moves CAN be large, but lately we’ve been in a period with the market making its moves during market hours and the overnight being fairly calm. I tracked the price of the condors with a 5-pt middle and 30-pt wings from 5:15pm onward. I have seen little decay in the price between 5:15 and midnight, so waiting until 9pm to enter the trade. To exit trade before 5:30am, when data releases typically happen, we can usually only expect .85 t0 1.50 in profit.
The premium does NOT move very much with minor swings. It seems we need at least a 20 point move before we hit a 2-dollar stop level. So in the first two live trades I’ve done, I entered bracket orders to take profits at 1.10 and stop-loss at 2.00. I had one loss and one win.
The chart below shows the 10 days tested, with notes. For two weeks potential profit is +3.76.
You must monitor the /ES chart for movement, but look at the $SPX option chain to determine the centered strikes, looking at the puts and calls that are each closest to .50 delta.
I’m thinking best approach is to make sure the first 4 hours (5:15-9:15pm) have no major market moves from the close. If earnings or something have caused volatility, skip the trade as it is more likely to keep moving overnight. Also, may be best to avoid large events occurring the expiry day, even though test trades on both Jobs and CPI reports worked, because the premium sold was so high that the IV drop made up for the move in the index.
Check out the chart and let me know if you have questions.
SPX 0-dte trades 6/18
SPX 0-dte trades 6/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 17th 5400/5430-5435/5465 condors for 13.70, IV 15.71%
Earnings 6/17 – 6/21
Economic Calendar 6/17 – 6/21
Retail Sales numbers Tuesday, market closed Wednesday, PMI reports Friday
SPX 0-dte trades 6/14/24
#SPX0dte After a week of wild swings and all-time highs, I think today’s market has a chance of bouncing from this overnight dip. Going with a #riskreversal
Sold to open $SPX Jun 14th 5350/5330 put spreads, delta -.07
Bought to open Jun 14th 5450/5465 call spreads, delta +.10
Total DEBIT -.30
Not looking for an ITM expiration; just 2 to 4 dollars on the intraday high.
Later I will share a new overnight trade I’ve been testing. Of course, after 8 straight days of testing success, my first day trying it live was a loss (due to this morning’s pre-market pullback). Seems to befall me every time I first switch from test to live!
SPX 0-dte trades 6/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open Jun 13th 5400/5430-5435/5465 condors for 16.15, IV 18.54, at 8:49 ET
CPI unchanged in May; up 3.3% Y/Y
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rate.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/cpi-report-june-inflation.html
SPX 0-dte trades 6/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 11th 5315/5345-5350/5380 condors for 14.15, IV 15.71%, at 8:26 ET
Earnings 6/10 – 6/14
Economic Calendar 6/10 – 6/14
The big day is Wednesday.
SPX 0-dte 6/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5275/5295-5380/5400 condors for 1.15, IV 17.17%, deltas -.07 +.07
May Jobs Report
#Jobs — Gains blow out expectations, UE rises to highest since Jan 2022
Gain of +272,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 190K
Unemployment up 0.1% to 4.0%, vs expectation of unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.4%, unchanged
Labor force participation down 0.2 to 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%, more than expected; +4.1% Y/Y
March jobs revised down by -5K to +310K
April jobs revised down by -10K to +165K
TICK down
Interesting morning with the $TICK, we opened higher and have had upside mini-spikes but TICK chart opened at and has stayed near -600. What does it meeeeaaannn?
SPX 0-dte trades 6/6/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 6th 5320/5350-5355/5385 condors for 14.55, IV 17.81%, at 8:46 ET
TOS charts frozen
At about 8:30 ET… anyone else?
SPX 0-dte 6/4/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 4th 5230/5260-5265/5295 condors for 18.00, IV 21.75%, at 8:15 ET
SPX 0-dte trades 6/3/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 3rd 5265/5295-5300/5330 condors for 14.85, IV 17.26%, at 8:28 ET
Earnings 6/3 – 6/7
Economic Calendar 6/3 – 6/7
JOBS report on Friday, and other data each morning this week.
SPX 0-dte 5/31/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 31st 5185/5205-5305/5325 condors for 1.20, IV 21.15%, deltas -.07 +.06
Taking lower risk route of wide 6-delta condor strategy this morning. May add tight condor if consolidation takes hold.
SPX 0-dte 5/30/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5220/5250-5255/5285 condors for 15.0o, IV 17.04%, at 8:51 ET
SPX 0-dte 5/29/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 29th 5245/5275-5280/5310 condors for 15.80, IV 17.88%, at 8:26 ET
SPX 0-dte 5/28/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPPX May 28th 5280/5310-5315/5345 condors for 12.05, IV 14.55%, at 8:28 ET
Earnings week of 5/27 – 5/31
Economic Calendar 5/27 – 5/31
GDP report Thursday; Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday
Risk Reversal
#RiskReversal At the close yesterday, I felt that we’d had an outsized intraday countertrend move that wouldn’t follow through. I think we will remain at these levels or go higher at least until June 7th, when we get next monthly jobs report, followed by both a CPI report and Fed decision the following week.
So, at the close…
Sold to Open $SPX May 29th 5160/5140 puts spreads
Bought to Open May 29th 5360/5380 call spreads
Net CREDIT +0.15
SPX 0-dte 5/24/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 24th 5210/5230-5320/5340 condors for 1.10, IV 18.04%, deltas -.07, +.07
Switching to a wide condor after yesterday’s move and economic data coming today.
SPX 0-dte 5/23/24
#SPX0dte May 23rd 5315/5345-5350/5380 condors for 15.25, IV 18.77%, at 8:46 ET
SPX 0-dte 5/22/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5280/5310-5315/5345 condors for 12.85, IV 13.67%, at 8:24 ET
SPX o-dte trades 5/21/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 21st 5275/5305-5310/5340 condors for 12.467, IV 13.70%, at 8:26 ET
SPX 0-dte trades 5/20/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 20th 5280/5310-5315/5345 condors for 11.10, IV 12.38%, at 8:28 ET
Probably the lowest IV and lowest premium I’ve sold on this trade before the open. Chain IV on SPX options this week is quite low, with a slight rise on Thursday.
Earnings for week of 5/20 – 5/24
Economic Calendar 5/20 – 5/24
FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon and a butt-load of FOMC members yapping all week.
SPX 0-dte 5/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 17th 5270/5300-5305/5335 condors for 14.15, IV 15.86%, at 8:27 ET
SPX 0-dte trades 5/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 16th 5280/5310-5315/5345 condors for 13.35, IV 15.36%, at 8:34 ET
Options Bistro 