#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 23rd 5770/5790-5880/5900 condors for 0.969, IV 15.96%, deltas -.06 +.06
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/22/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 22nd 5765/5785-5885/5905 condors for 1.05, IV 17.93%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trade for 10/21/24
#SPX0dte Sold top open $SPX Oct 21st 5805/5785 put spreads for .65, IV 15.86%, delta -.07
With overnight movement it looks like we could be near bottom of a swing, so I’m not going to sell a call side with such low premium when we have room to rise.
Earnings 10/21 – 10/25
Tesla, Boeing, IBM all on Wednesday
Econ Calendar 10/21 – 10/25
Significant data releases on Wed, Thur, Fri
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/18/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5780/5800-5900/5920 condors for 1.10, IV 17.95%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 17th 5835/5865-5870/5900 condors for 15.35, IV 18.33%
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 16th 5740/5760-5865/5885 condors for 1.10, IV 18.29%, deltas -.06 +.06
Third day’s a charm? Two days straight of no econ data but still big moves and stops on this trade. Thought about going long with this instead, but I think chances are stronger that today will quiet down ahead of tomorrow’s data. But I’m ready to exit early if we start to move.
SPX 0-dte for 10/15/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 15th 5800/5820-5900/5920 condors for 1.25, IV 16.85%, deltas -.08 +.07
Waited for the open then went a bit aggressive since no overnight moves and no data releases today.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 5745/5765-5860/5880 condors for 1.10, IV 16.34%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 10/14 – 10/18
Econ Calendar 10/14 – 10/18
Fairly quiet week except for Thursday with Retail Sales, Philly Fed, and ECB rate decision.
Bond market closed on Monday
SPX o-dte trades for 10/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 5710/5730-5825/5845 condors for 1.25, IV 18.48%, deltas -.07 +.07
SPX 0-dte for 10/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 10th 5690/5710-5840/5860 condors for 1.20, IV 24.40%, deltas -.07 +.04
Leaning bullish on this since I feel the dip will bounce back.
CPI a bit higher than expected
US Sept. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% M/M; Est. +0.1%, 2.4% Y/Y; Est. +2.3%
Sept. Core CPI Rises 0.3% M/M; Est. +0.2%, 2.4% Y/Y; Est. +2.3%
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXIndicator. New $SPX high means the DW is canceled. That may be the fakest headfake I’ve ever seen this indicator produce. I don’t know why $VIX is so high, but can only guess it has to do with the trader uncertainty about how fast rates will come down, which seems to be a silly fear given the strength of just about everything right now.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/9/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5665/5686-5795/5815 condors for 1.00, IV 19.03%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 8th 5615/5635-5760/5780 condors for 1.25, IV 22.15%, deltas -.06 +.06
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator The high $VIX close on Monday was over 50% higher than the recent low of 14.90. This fires the Downside Warning. The last one fired on Sept 3rd and was only good for an additional 2% down over 4 days.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator. Afternoon surprise… despite the volatility last week the Upside Warning survived. Not today. A Downside warning will take effect if $VIX closes above 22.34.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/7/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 7th 5640/5660-5790/5810 condors for 1.10, IV 22.90%, deltas -.06 +.05
Earnings 10/7 – 10/11
Final earnings season of the year kicks off Friday with bank earnings.
Econ Calendar 10/7 – 10/11
Two bond auctions this week, and the big CPI on Thursday.
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/4/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 5635/5655-5800/5820 condors for 1.35, IV 26.95%, deltas -.08 +.05
I waited for the first red candle after the Jobs report on the 5-min futures chart. Took 35 minutes.
September Jobs Report
#Jobs — Wildly beating expectations, including upward revisions to July and August
Gain of +254,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 151K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 4.1%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.7%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +4.0% Y/Y
August jobs revised up by +17K to +159K
July jobs revised up by +55K to +144K
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/3/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd 5610/5630-5765/5785 condors for 1.25, IV 24.96%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte for 10/2/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 5605/5625-5765/5785 condors for 1.15, IV 24.61%, deltas -.05 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 10/1/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5670/5690-5810/5830 condors for 1.25, IV 21.54%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/30/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 5630/5650-5780/5800 condors for 1.20, IV 23.12%, deltas -.06 +.06
$VIX moving higher and deltas wider than last week
Earnings 9/30 – 10/4
Econ Calendar 9/30 – 10/4
JOBS report Friday… potential market movers every other day, too.
SPX 0-dte for 9/27/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 27th 5680/5700-5795/5815 condors for 1.10, IV 16.88%, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 5675/5695-5800/5820 condors for 1.40, IV 17.42%, deltas -.08 +.06. First time with strikes over 5800
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/25/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5660/5680-5770/5790 condors for 1.00, IV 16.11%, deltas -.07 +.06
Econ Calendar update
Guess I gotta check for updates more often. The current sharp drop seems driven by “CB Consumer Confidence” Data released at 10am ET, which was not on calendar when I copied it into the menu above but is there on Bloomberg’s site now.
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/24/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 24th 5690/5720-5725/5755 condors for 14.70, IV 17.70%
Premium was pretty low for the wide condor so I skipped it.
Upside Warning now in effect
#VIXindicator The last Upside Warning fired on Aug 13 when SPX was 6% above the latest low, and peaked on Aug 26 at 10.4% above the low, so it caught over 4% of upside. Currently the SPX is 6% above the Sept 6th low.
SPX 0-dte for 9/23/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 5630/5650-5755/5775 condors for 1.45, IV 19.88%, deltas -.07 +.07
Earnings 9/23 – 9/27
Economic Calendar 9/23 – 9/27
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/20/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5610/5630-5775/5795 condors for 1.10, IV 25.11%, deltas -.06, +.05. I went a strike further on call side just to reduce risk on a Friday in a week with strong profit already.
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/19/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 19th 5580/5600-5750/5770 condors for 1.90, IV 25.40%, deltas -.10, +.06
SPX 0-dte trades 9/18/24
#SPX0dte Well, taking the shot at an unpredictable move but high premium.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 18th 5600/5630-5635/5665 condors for 25.05.
Risking 4.95, which is just a bit more in my profit so far this week. For now I’m targeting to close at 20.00, for 5.05 profit. But I’ll keep an eye on the day and maybe take profits early if there’s some decay. On the announcement and/or press conference, premium can drop super fast, and if we are not too far from the center point, 20.00 should not be a problem. But if we are far from center, I can either brace for a drift back through center or take a loss smaller than 4.95.
Downside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator The Downside Warning was canceled at the open, due to the SPX exceeding 5651, which was the high between the last Upside & Downside warnings.
SPX 0-dte for 9/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5560/5580-5700/5720 condors for 1.20, IV 22.32%, deltas -.06 +.06, at 9:18am ET
SPX 0-dte for 9/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 5535/5555-5670/5690 condors for 1.30, IV 22.12%, deltas -.07 +.07. A bit tighter on deltas than normal, looking for sideways day with no economic news and traders waiting for Wednesday Fed decision.
Earnings 9/16 – 9/20
Economic Calendar 9/16 – 9/20
Retail sales on Tuesday, then the biggie: FOMC decision on Wednesday afternoon.
Downside Warning may be done
#VIXindicator Just need a $VIX close below 16.46
SPX 0-dte for 9/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 5505/5525-5665/5685 condors for 1.15, IV 24.20%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/12/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 12th 5460/5480-5615/5635 condors for 1.383, IV 26.06%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5385/5405-5555/5575 condors for 1.35, IV 29.67%, deltas -.06 +.05, at 8:50a ET
CPI up 0.2% in August
From cnbc.com:
Prices increased as expected in August while the annual inflation rate declined to its lowest level since February 2021, according to a Labor Department report Wednesday that sets the stage for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in a week.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, increased 0.2% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones consensus.
That put the 12-month inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage point from the July level and compared to the estimate for 2.6%.
However, so-called core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate was 3.2%, in line with the forecast.
This is breaking news. Please check back for updates.
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 10th 5380/5400-5535/5555 condors for 1.40, IV 25.66%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/9/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 5320/5340-5505/5525 condors for 1.40, IV 30.91%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 9/9 – 9/13
Economic Calendar 9/9 – 9/13
CPI Wednesday, Bond Auction Thursday
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/6
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 6th 5385/5405-5585/5605 condors for 1.55, IV 35.83%, deltas -.06 +.06
August Jobs Report
#Jobs — Close to expectations, with drop in UE
Gain of +142,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 161K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 4.2%, as expected
U6 unemployment 7.9%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; +3.8% Y/Y
June jobs revised down by -61K to +118K
July jobs revised down by -25K to +89K
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/5
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 5th 5410/5430-5585/5605 condors for 1.35, IV 29.35%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 9/4
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5400/5420-5585/5605 condors for 1.35, IV 31.50%, deltas -.06 +.06
JOLT numbers released at 10am could throw a monkey in my wrench but I’m getting a decent width here so going with typical 6-delta sale.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator The high $VIX close on Tuesday signals a likelihood of lower indexes in the coming days or weeks.
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator $VIX above 18.74… if we close above it we will be in Downside Warning.
This Upside Warning lasted three weeks and at the high last Monday was good for +217.19 on $SPX, or about +4%.
CBOE extends pre-market SPX trading
Effective last week (I didn’t notice until this morning), SPX has only a 5-minute pause between pre-market and trading and the open. So you can trade pre-market until 9:25am ET.
SPX 0-dte for 9/3
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 3rd 5540/5560-5685/5705 condors for 1.15, IV 22.11%, deltas -.06 +.05
Earnings 9/2 – 9/6
Economic Calendar 9/2 – 9/6
ISM, JOLT, PMI, August Jobs report
SPX 0-dte for 8/30/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 30th 5525/5545-5670/5690 condors for 1.05, IV 22.49%, deltas -.06 +.05
Why the drop?
If anyone knows why this late day drop happened please reply. I’m guessing it was bond auction but don’t know where to find the info.
SPX 0-dte for 8/29/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5670/5690 condors for 1.10, IV 26.10%, deltas -.06 +.04
SPX 0-dte for 8/28/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 28th 5555/5575-5665/5685 condors for 1.10, IV 17.56%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades 8/27/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 27th 5535/5555-5660/5680 condors for 1.05, IV 19.55%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte for 8/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 5560/5580-5685/5705 condors for .90, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 18.45%
Earnings 8/26 – 8/30
NVDA on Wednesday… also this week CRM, BBY, DG, LULU, ULTA
Economic Calendar 8/26 – 8/30
GDP on Thursday, PCE on Friday
Options Bistro 