#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5670/5690 condors for 1.10, IV 26.10%, deltas -.06 +.04

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 27th 5535/5555-5660/5680 condors for 1.05, IV 19.55%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 5560/5580-5685/5705 condors for .90, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 18.45%

#SPX0dte. Waited until Powell’s speech start time. Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 5505/5525-5680/5700 condors for 1.40, deltas -.07 +.05. Leaning bullish and I can see already we’re moving in that direction.

#SPX0dte. Pretty glad I had to be out today, otherwise I would have traded soemthing this morning and taken a loss. Now I’m trying for a scalp at day’s end: Sold to Open Aug 22nd 5555/5575-5580/5600 condors for 8.00.

#SPX0dte At 9:57p ET, sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5650/5670 condors for 1.30, IV 15.39%, deltas -.06 +.06

With overnight moves being minor and premium/width returning to anemic, I’m selling night before to get more juice.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5545/5565-5645/5665 condors for 1.30, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 15.80%

These trades have already returned to their anemic premium and width from before the mini-crash. After yesterday’s strong move higher I am going more aggressive with higher deltas, thinking that a ninth straight day of gains is less likely than an eighth, but also assuming there won’t be any dramatic collapse.

#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Aug 19th 5480/5500-5605/5625 condors for 1.072, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 19.02%

#SPX0dte Just after the open, Sold to Open $SPX Aug 16th 5435/5455-5585/5605 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.99%

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 5495/5525-5530/5560 condors for 12.30, IV 19.02%

What a sea change across the week. Less than 2 hours after open and the ATM condor only around 12 bucks. Last Friday this didn’t happen until 45 minutes before close.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 5345/5365-5510/5530 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 29.51%

Bullish leaning.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 13th 5265/5285-5420/5440 condors for 1.20, IV 28.26%, deltas -.07 +.05

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 5255/5275-5415/5435 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 26.88%

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 5190/5170 put spreads for 1.00, delta -.07, IV 43.78%

After three straight days of being stopped on call side I’m going to try to leg in today, and since we are down a bit now starting with put side. Of course, this likely means today will NOT see a spike higher.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 8th 5115/5135-5345/5365 condors for 1.70, IV 46.46%, deltas -.06 +.07

Waited until after the open today… zero for two this week on these so maybe this will work.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 5150/5170-5370/5390 condors for 1.70, IV 38.77%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 6th 5060/5080-5330/5350 condors for 1.65, IV 51.15%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte At 12:26p PT, sold to open $SPX Aug 5th 5145/5175-5180/5210 condors for 14.45, IV a lot. BTC at 12:49 for 12.50, about 10%. Was going for 10.00 but it looked to be threatening to go lower so I got out. Had I waited a minute longer, it would have hit 10.00! It didn’t hit my expiration breakeven point so I probably shouldn’t have chickened out, but when down 3%, fear is a factor.

#SPX0dte I stayed away most of Friday, even though I modeled a couple of wide condors which would have been easy wins. The tight condors lose value at a very slow rate on these high volatility days. They were around 21.00 at the open and still almost 20.00 four hours later. My plan was to wait until much closer to the close, as I did on Wednesday.

(All times I mention and on the chart are PACIFIC). By 11am, it looked as if enough consolidation was forming to make the trade viable. I liked the condor centered at 30-35, but then it dropped and was hovering around 15. So I sold the 15-20, after which it went right back up to 30-35 and resumed consolidation there. Premium was dropping but not enough because I was off center. So I covered for 8% profit and immediately reentered the 30-35 for 15.95, with only 46 minutes left in day. Premium began draining. The red dashed lines represent the expiration breakevens for this trade. As long as those were not breached, I was safe from loss. It got down to 8.00 at 12:54 and I covered, 50% profit. Had I let it go, I could have gotten out for around 6.00 a few minutes later, but had I let it expire, I would have paid 11.56.

So, this is the first major volatility I’ve seen since starting this trade early this year. It’s clear this trade is good near the open in low-VOL, but this end-of-day trade can be a winner in hi-VOL. I think you need to see some consolidation in middle of the day; if not, the wide moves could continue all the way to the close. For instance, this trade would not have been as easy on Tuesday or Thursday this week. Also, it’s best to get out before close, as too often the last two 5-min bars can be quite big and throw you outside breakeven very quickly.

#SPX0dte At 11:21pm ET, sold to Open $SPX Aug 1st 5435/5455-5610/5630 condors for 1.65, IV 20.35%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte I would have stayed away but I was smarting from yesterday so I took a shot. I liked the pullback from the HoD and sold the $SPX July 31st 5500/5530-5535/5565 condors for 15.20 at 3:21p ET. White knuckled through the dip and it came back to center and exited for 11.00. Over 15.00 with only 39 minutes left in the day is super… but we all know this thing can move FAR in the last hour on FOMC decision days.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 30th 5375/5395-5535/5555 condors for 1.35, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 16.21%

Sorry for not posting today, I just got back from Colorado last night. I sold a wide condor last night and two tight condors today for a total of +3.65. Hopefully tomorrow will be another quiet day so I can avoid Wednesday altogether.

#SPX0dte Bought to Open $SPX July 26th 5420/5450-5455/5485 condors for -18.50 at 11:26am, sold to close at 12:06 for 20.50.

Going long has been best bet this week, although today certainly quieter than yesterday so not pressing this beyond 2 bucks. May try again in a bit when the ATM condors are cheaper and require less of a move to turn profit.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 5330/5350-5500/5520 condors for 1.35, IV 29.61%, deltas -.06 +.07

A 150-pt spread and now that data caused only minor movement we might have a quieter day than yesterday.

I didn’t post yesterday because I was experimenting with a bearish bias. I lost a bit with an overnight short condor, fortunately getting a little bump higher at the open that allowed me to get out. Then I BOUGHT the ATM tight condor for 18.50, and later closed it for 22.50. Could have let it expire and gotten 30. I also made a couple more bucks by buying a put spread with 25 minutes before close and cashing out at expiration. A good day but a bit haphazard and off-plan. More often lately, buying rather than selling is the safer bet.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 23rd 5530/5560-5565/5595 condors for 16.95, IV 20.17%

Last Night: Sold July 23rd 5480/5500-5615/5635 condors for 1.25, deltas -.08 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5510/5540-5545/5575 condors for 17.25, IV 21.49%, at 9:33 ET

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 19th 5520/5550-5555/5585 condors for 19.70, IV 25.31%, at 8:15am.

No hedge trade at the moment. Looking for 10%.

#SPX0dte So after two days out of three with the long trade doing nicely and the short one doing poorly, I decided to only buy the hedge long condor last night and wait for morning for the short.

Last night, bought to open $SPX July 18th 5500/5520-5670/5690 condors for 1.05, deltas -.05 +.05.

This was pretty wide and a nice condor to SELL, or even a strike or two tighter in. Sure enough it is down to about .60 now. But still there for a hedge in case we get a big bounce or collapse. Looking to enter ATM after the open, unless we swing wildly from 8:30 data.

#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX July 17th 5630/5660-5665/5695 condors for 17.05, IV 12.67%, at 11:44p ET

Bought to open 5585/5605-5710/5730 condors for .95, delta -.05 +.04

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 16th 5610/5640-5645/5675 condors for 17.40, IV 13.14%, at 11:12 p ET

Also buying: 5560/5580-5690/5710 for 1.00 or 1.05 (not filled yet), deltas -.05 +.05

#SPX0dte. Trying something new this week. Last night I sold the typical centered ATM condor for 16.25. But I also BOUGHT a 6-delta condor for 1.05.

My thinking is the long wide is hedge against the short narrow. This seems to be a solution to handling the wild swings we’ve been seeing.

If there is a strong move, it is likely that I would still be at a loss but a much smaller one. If there is a super strong move, some of which we have seen in recent days, it would be a 4 to 5 dollar winner at expiration, if left alone.

We did get a bullish move overnight and after open I stopped out the narrow for 18.25. Now I am watching my long calls on the wide (5670/5690) to take profits. Currently at 2.00, if I can get to 3.00 it will be breakeven for the day, profit if higher than that.

After watching today, it may have been best to stop out of the narrow before the open (could have done it for 17.00, only -.75 loss), and either let the long condor run or potentially add a new centered narrow after the open. But based on the upward action right now and the last few weeks, it has been a very directional intraday market and perhaps just buying long spreads is the only thing needed.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 12th 5515/5535-5635/5655 condors for .90, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 17.62%, at 8:38 ET.

A brief dip but back to centered from the PPI data release… we are flat from yesterday’s close. Two days of heavy moves followed by a quiet Friday? We shall see…

I got 100-point width even after the data release which is better than mornings have been for awhile.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 5500/5520-5600/5620 condors for .80, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 12.61%, at 8:18am ET

Last Night: At 12:16am ET sold to Open $SPX 5525/5555-5560/5590 condors for 14.20. Of course, in this market it is being tested to the upside, currently around 15.00. Would like to close before the open and possibly place a new one ATM.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 5th 5505/5535-5540/5570 condors for 13.60, IV 15.76%

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 3rd 5475/5505-5510/5540 condors for 10.05, IV 11.16%

Low premium due to a short day. Overnight action was in a pretty small range. May or may not close before 9:45/10:00 data release. Market closes at 1pm ET.

#SPX0dte I placed a trade last night around my usual time when I shouldn’t have. The move from the close to 9pm PT was downward, and I want to place this trade only if that move is mostly flat. But I had been encouraged by the resilience of the premium lately so I placed it anyway.

At 12:28am ET, sold to open $SPX July 2nd 5435/5465-5470/5500 condors for 15.478

The downward move continued and premium maxed at 18.75 at around 7:53am. We bounced enough and I just closed for 15.30, so breakeven after commissions. The resilience saved me but my condor is too off-center to risk going into Powell’s speech and JOLT release. I will consider possibilities after 10am.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 1st 5445/5475-5480/5510 condors for 16.05, IV 13.25%, at 12:26am

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 27th 5445/5475-5480/5510 condors for 13.559, IV 15.23%, at 8:53 ET.

#SPX0dte Last night at 12:13am ET, sold to open $SPX Jun 25th 5425/5455-5460/5490 condors for 15.723. Didn’t get much decay overnight… price was 15.30 around 8am when structure was very close to centered ATM. But since then, it has dropped to 14.00. Considering when to exit.

This demonstrates how little decay there is overnight and that it really starts in earnest after 8am. Overnight risk may not be worth it, even if probability of stop-out is low.