Rolling to just inside the expected move. C’mon Mr. Market take a run at it.
Rolled SPX Jun 20 2024 5460.0 Puts to Jun 21 2024 5470.0 Puts @ 5.50 credit (14.70 total now)
Recent Updates Page 50
SPX 0dte trades 6/20/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 20th 5435/5455-5540/5560 condor for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 16.05%
VIX Put Expiration
1 VIX Jun 18 2024 12.0 Put
GME Diagonal Puts
Bought 1 GME Jun 28 2024 19.0 Put / Sold 1 Jun 21 2024 23.0 Put at $0.15 Credit
Bought 1 GME Jul 05 2024 18.0 Put / Sold 1 Jun 21 2024 23.0 Put at $0.16 Credit
Covering the cost of my original buy of Jun 21 2024 10.0 Puts a month ago
Overnight strategy details
#SPX0dte #SPXah I started “#SPXah” hashtag for this. It is basically the same IB/condor trade we have been doing same-day but placed around 9pm Pacific and closed before the next day’s open. I recently discovered that SPX options can be traded from 5:15pm to 6:15am PT, whereas before I thought it was only 3a-6:15a.
(I’m usually post times in ET but using PT time here since that’s where I live)
Overnight moves CAN be large, but lately we’ve been in a period with the market making its moves during market hours and the overnight being fairly calm. I tracked the price of the condors with a 5-pt middle and 30-pt wings from 5:15pm onward. I have seen little decay in the price between 5:15 and midnight, so waiting until 9pm to enter the trade. To exit trade before 5:30am, when data releases typically happen, we can usually only expect .85 t0 1.50 in profit.
The premium does NOT move very much with minor swings. It seems we need at least a 20 point move before we hit a 2-dollar stop level. So in the first two live trades I’ve done, I entered bracket orders to take profits at 1.10 and stop-loss at 2.00. I had one loss and one win.
The chart below shows the 10 days tested, with notes. For two weeks potential profit is +3.76.
You must monitor the /ES chart for movement, but look at the $SPX option chain to determine the centered strikes, looking at the puts and calls that are each closest to .50 delta.
I’m thinking best approach is to make sure the first 4 hours (5:15-9:15pm) have no major market moves from the close. If earnings or something have caused volatility, skip the trade as it is more likely to keep moving overnight. Also, may be best to avoid large events occurring the expiry day, even though test trades on both Jobs and CPI reports worked, because the premium sold was so high that the IV drop made up for the move in the index.
Check out the chart and let me know if you have questions.
SPX Update
Just looking at my oldest position (one spread). Dec 2027 5000/5000/5400. Set the position back on Feb 7th when the market was around 5000. Since then we’ve rallied 10 percent. There was about a month in there where I collected zero premium and had to roll the short put sales down while we were selling off a little. That can be expected. It is nice to see that decent money can be made even when the market is going big against your synthetic short LEAPS.
Here’s the actual numbers:
Cost to open the position: 22500 debit
Cost to close the position: 5400 credit
Loss on LEAPS: 17100
Total daily premium received: 32000
Net gain if closed everything today: 14900
That works out to about 46 cents on the dollar going to profit.
My thoughts: In a flatter market these would make really really good money. Been pretty much straight up the whole time but pretty easy to keep up with the lossses on the LEAPS. Already over halfway to covering max loss and the trade still has 182 weeks to run (130 weeks if I close it a year early).
Decision to make:
1. Do I close now and reset the LEAPS higher to reduce the risk and margin in the daily sales?
I say not yet since a selloff can still help the LEAPS and plenty of time to roll down the daily sales and margin requirements are still not terrible. I can’t confirm but it feels like the higher we go the less short deltas the LEAPS have. It feels like the losses are bigger as the LEAPS initially get out of the money and get closer to max loss. Pretty easy to sell the daily to flatten the delta on the overall position now with the LEAP deltas only being short 26 where they were initially around 50 at the beginning of the trade.
Gonna continue and see how things play out. So far so good.
#fuzzyspxexperiment (so I can find this post in a search LOL)
EDITED: Changed last paragraph from “in the money” to “out of the money”
SPX
This might cool things off a little…selling half the expected move.
Bought to Close SPX Jun 17 2024 5400.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for 12.55)
Sold SPX Jun 20 2024 5460.0 Puts @ 9.20
SPX 0-dte trades 6/18
SPX
Gonna be on the road rest of the day so rolling early on the first little dip.
Rolled SPX Jun 17 2024 5400.0 Puts to Jun 18 2024 5405.0 Puts @ 6.00 credit (12.55 total now)
SPX 0-dte trades 6/17/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 17th 5400/5430-5435/5465 condors for 13.70, IV 15.71%
Earnings 6/17 – 6/21
Economic Calendar 6/17 – 6/21
Retail Sales numbers Tuesday, market closed Wednesday, PMI reports Friday
Markets
Even within tech there is a staggering divergence – yesterday the Nasdaq hit a new record high despite more than 70% of the index closed lower on the session!
OptionsExpiration
The last one for a while as I wait for my account to be moved
EXPIRED:
1 BMY 43.5 Covered Call
1 BMY 44.5 Covered Call
1 CVS 61.0 Covered Call
1 GILD 69.0 Covered Call
1 VFC 14.0 Covered Call
VXX 13.0 Covered Calls
WBA 20.5 Covered Calls
1 UPS 133.0 Put
1 AAP 59.0 Put
1 KOLD 29.0 Put
1 BOIL 27.5/23.5 Bear Call Spread
1 GME 15.5/17.5/40/42 Short Iron Condor
1 GME 15.5/25/65/70 Short Iron Condor (now completely out of GME)
1 SBUX 86/80 Bear Call Spread
VXX 11.0 Diagonal Puts
VXX 17/13 Bear Call Spreads
ASSIGNMENTS:
1 SQQQ 9.0 Put (last night)
1 PARA 11.5 Put
CLF 16.0 Puts
Last Straw for Fidelity
After making a mistake and buying back at $0.01 a SPY put that I sold as part of a diagonal spread on the same day I sold it, Fidelity put my IRA on restriction for 90 days because I couldn’t meet a $28k day trade margin call.
I’m done with them. Moving this entire account to TT
SPX
Another round. Nice end to a record week…53.10 in premium. Thank you Fed! (technically 7 trading days going back to last Thursday)
Bought to Close SPX Jun 14 2024 5395.0 Puts @ 1.05 (sold for 15.90)
Sold SPX Jun 17 2024 5400.0 Puts @ 6.55
GME
#shortputs
#closing
#releasingcapitol
Btc GME 14 JUN 2024 29 PUT @1.11
sto Wednesday@3.19
XBI
Adding.
Sold XBI Jul 19 2024 88.0 Puts @ 1.30 and 1.40
TQQQ
STO August 2, 60 puts at 1.05
CSCO UPS Stock
Started tiny new positions
CSCO at $45.00
UPS at $133.00
#FallingKnife
TQQQ,
My June 14, 52 puts will expire at zero today.
VXX Long Term Puts
Bought VXX Jan 17 2025 6.0 Puts at $0.12
#VXXContango
SPX 0-dte trades 6/14/24
#SPX0dte After a week of wild swings and all-time highs, I think today’s market has a chance of bouncing from this overnight dip. Going with a #riskreversal
Sold to open $SPX Jun 14th 5350/5330 put spreads, delta -.07
Bought to open Jun 14th 5450/5465 call spreads, delta +.10
Total DEBIT -.30
Not looking for an ITM expiration; just 2 to 4 dollars on the intraday high.
Later I will share a new overnight trade I’ve been testing. Of course, after 8 straight days of testing success, my first day trying it live was a loss (due to this morning’s pre-market pullback). Seems to befall me every time I first switch from test to live!
SPX
A little early on these today.
Rolled SPX Jun 13 2024 5390.0 Puts to Jun 14 2024 5395.0 Puts @ 4.00 credit ( 15.90 total now)
TAP Stock
Started a tiny new position in TAP at $50.00
Time to buy a six pack 🙂
#FallingKnife
VIX Put
Sold 1 VIX Jun 18 2024 12.00 Put at $0.14
#EveryLittleBitHelps
SPX 0-dte trades 6/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open Jun 13th 5400/5430-5435/5465 condors for 16.15, IV 18.54, at 8:49 ET
GME
#shortputs
#Walkingonthewildside
STO GME 14 JUN 2024 29 PUT @3.09
VXX Long Term Puts
Bought VXX Jan 17 2025 6.0 Puts at $0.16 and $0.14
#VXXContango
HE F
#coveredcalls
#everylittlebithelps
Sto HE 14 JUN 2024 10.5 CALL @.08
Sto F 14 JUN 2024 12.5 CALL @.04
TQQQ,
STO July 26, 60 puts at .91
SPX
Moving up into the gap and just below the big even number. Doing this early today to get the higher premium still priced into tomorrow for JP today. More data tomorrow too. Come and get it Mr. Market!
Bought to Close SPX Jun 12 2024 5340.0 Puts @ 1.15 (sold for 13.20)
Sold SPX Jun 13 2024 5390.0 Puts @ 11.90
CPI unchanged in May; up 3.3% Y/Y
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rate.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/cpi-report-june-inflation.html
SPY Expiration
1 SPY 06/11/2024 523/528 Bull Put Spread – sold yesterday at $0.22
Flat (at least in the near term) in SPY
SPX
Could’ve gotten 19 bucks for a roll this morning. Just couldn’t get any sort of weakness all afternoon which is what you really need when waiting later in the day.
Bought to Close SPX Jun 11 2024 5340.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for 3.10)
Sold SPX Jun 12 2024 5340.0 Puts @ 13.20
OK Mr. Market you are now free to sell off last hour. LOL
SPX 0-dte trades 6/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 11th 5315/5345-5350/5380 condors for 14.15, IV 15.71%, at 8:26 ET
SPX
Premium gets a LOT better on Wed.
Bought to Close SPX Jun 10 2024 5330.0 Puts @ .10 (sold for 4.25)
Sold SPX Jun 11 2024 5340.0 Puts @ 3.10
SPY Puts
Sold 1 SPY 06/11/2024 523/528 Bull Put Spread at $0.22 Credit
Covered Calls and small Puts
Sold 1 BMY 06/14/2024 44.5 Covered Call at $0.04
Sold 1 BMY 06/21/2024 43.5 Covered Call at $0.17
Sold 1 BMY 06/21/2024 44.5 Covered Call at $0.09
Sold 1 BMY 06/28/2024 45.0 Covered Call at $0.12
Sold 1 GILD 06/21/2024 69.0 Covered Call at $0.07
Sold VXX 06/14/2024 13.0 Covered Calls at $0.05
Sold 1 PARA 06/14/2024 11.5 Put at $0.10
Sold 1 AAP 06/14/2024 59.0 Put at $0.12
Sold 1 SQQQ 06/14/2024 9.0 Put at $0.12
Sold 1 UPS 06/14/2024 133.0 Put at $0.38
Sold 1 KOLD 06/14/2024 29.0 Put at $0.40
#EveryLittleBitHelps
Earnings 6/10 – 6/14
Economic Calendar 6/10 – 6/14
The big day is Wednesday.
SPX 0-dte 6/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5275/5295-5380/5400 condors for 1.15, IV 17.17%, deltas -.07 +.07
OptionsExpiration
Expired:
1 CPB 41 Put
1 CSCO 44.5 Put
1 HAL 33.5 Put
1 SLB 41.5 Put
1 PARA 11.5 Put
1 AAP 61 Put
1 KOLD 36 Put
1 BMY 43.5 Covered Call
1 BMY 45.5 Covered Call
1 BMY 47.0 Covered Call
1 BOIL 13.5/15/23/24.5 Iron Condor
1 CVS 63.0 Covered Call
1 GILD 69.0 Covered Call
1 GME 12.5/21.5/65/75 Iron Condor
1 GME 12.5/22.5/65/75 Iron Condor
1 GME 85/80 Bear Call Spread
1 VFC 14.0 Covered Call
1 VXX 16/13 Bear Call Spread
VXX 13.0 Covered Calls
Assignments:
CLF 17.0 Puts (last night)
CVS 61.0 Covered Call – stock put to me at 60 a few weeks ago
SBUX 80.0 Covered Call – stock put to me at 80 a few weeks ago
SPY Expiration
1 SPY Jun 06 2024 517/520 Bull Put Spread
The last of my current put ladder
VXX Long Term Puts
Bought 2 VXX Jan 17 2025 6.0 Puts at $0.17.
#VXXContango
GME on the open
Sold 1 GME Jun 07 85/80 Bear Call Spread at $0.23 Credit
Sold 1 GME Jun 14 2024 70/65 Bear Call Spread at $0.50 Credit
Sold GME Jun 07 2024 15/21.5 Bull Put Spreads at $0.12 Credit
SPX
Not a lot of premium first two days next week. Things crank up again on Wed.
Bought to Close Jun 07 2024 5320.0 Puts @ .75 (sold for 14.05)
Bought to Close Jun 07 2024 5320.0 Put @ .75 (sold for 11.20)
Sold SPX Jun 10 2024 5330.0 Puts @ 4.25
Totally flat, only my 401k…
Totally flat, only my 401k has some open ETF long positions. Feels weird, first time totally flat since 2004 but wife said NO TRADING on vacation…….I will miss it!!!
TQQQ,
My June 7, 50 puts will expire at zero today.
NVDA pin
Theory is that the stock will pin at 1200 at the close today. Sold to open $NVDA Jun 7 1195/1200/1205 iron fly @ 4.50. Risking .50.
Going flat for 2 weeks…
Going flat for 2 weeks as we will be in France on a well deserved vacation. I may trade once I get over there but at least wanted to be flat for the first part as anytime I cannot access the market (airplane, train, deep in the woods) the market does some stupid stuff. I try to learn something everyday but this was the hardest lesson.
Anyway, over the last few years I have been perfecting butterfly tactics with adjustments when needed and am currently working on asymmetric iron condors. If interested I will post them when I get back. Not as a “service style” but you are all skilled traders. I could just post a screenshot and you can trade it from there.
We charged 5k a year for the service and my official results are about 168% returns since October 2022 when we started it. Better returns in higher VIX but still works now. Just $500 profits on 10 SPX contracts instead of 1-3k when the VIX is over 20.
But I don’t want to overload posting so if no interest no hard feelings, I trade it myself anyway.
But I will say from the professional side it was a lot of work and not enough return and even if we gave them explicit instructions people would still screw it up. I know those here will not.
Have a great few weeks and will catch up when we are back in the USA!
XBI
Starter. Come and get it.
Sold XBI Jul 19 2024 87.0 Put @ 1.40
GME
If anyone is interested:
Roaring Kitty Livestream:
May Jobs Report
#Jobs — Gains blow out expectations, UE rises to highest since Jan 2022
Gain of +272,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 190K
Unemployment up 0.1% to 4.0%, vs expectation of unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.4%, unchanged
Labor force participation down 0.2 to 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%, more than expected; +4.1% Y/Y
March jobs revised down by -5K to +310K
April jobs revised down by -10K to +165K
SPY Expiration
1 SPY Jun 06 2024 513/521 Bull Put Spread
GME
The Roaring Kitty guy is doing a livestream tomorrow so closing for safety.
Bought to Close Jun 21st 17.5/10.0 Bull Put Spreads @ .29 (sold for .48)
NVDA
Wow! What happened? Nearly 90 points in 15 minutes.
SPX
Since these were only worth about a dollar and the market doesn’t feel like a big selloff is coming today (LOL famous last words!) rolling early to keep the theta going. More data coming tomorrow so still nice premium down at the expected move.
Rolled SPX Jun 06 2024 5310.0 Puts to Jun 07 2024 5320.0 Puts @ 7.00 credit (14.05 total now)
Rolled SPX Jun 06 2024 5320.0 Put to Jun 07 2024 5320.0 Put @ 6.50 credit (11.20 total now)
TICK down
Interesting morning with the $TICK, we opened higher and have had upside mini-spikes but TICK chart opened at and has stayed near -600. What does it meeeeaaannn?
SPX 0-dte trades 6/6/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 6th 5320/5350-5355/5385 condors for 14.55, IV 17.81%, at 8:46 ET
SPY Expiration
1 SPY 515/522 Bull Put Spread
1 SPY 511/520 Bull Put Spread
XBI
Never got anywhere close to a full position but I’ll take ’em.
Bought to Close XBI Jun 21 2024 84.0 Put @ .14 (sold for 1.50)
Bought to Close XBI Jun 21 2024 85.0 Put @ .18 (sold for 1.67)
HE
#coveredcalls
#everylittlebithelps
SOLD HE 7 JUN 24 11 CALL @.06
Roll NOVO COIN ARM TTD Call / OLLI Call
#coveredcalls #rolling
$NVO BTC 6/7 139 call and STO 6/14 141 call at even.
$COIN BTC 6/7 245 call and STO 6/14 255 call at .85 added credit plus the $2 if balled away.
$ARM BTC 6/7 129 call and STO 6/14 134 call at cost of .40 but gain $5 if called away.
$TTD BTC 6/7 96 call and STO 6/14 98 call at even.
#coveredcalls
$OLLI STO 6/21 95 call at $1. Earnings were very good.
SPY
Taking these as quick scalps at 55-60 percent of max many weeks early.
Bought to Close SPY Jul 12 2024 505.0 Put @ 1.39 (sold for 3.00)
Bought to Close SPY Jul 19 2024 495.0 Put @ 1.13 (sold for 2.83)
Bought to Close SPY Jul 31 2024 490.0 Put @ 1.33 (sold for 2.90)
SPX
Added another synthetic short in non taxable account. I’ll be looking to close the one in the taxable account soon. Easier to do these if they are all together in one spot. That’ll be it until Sep when the Dec 2030s come along.
Added Dec 2027 5400/5400/5800 @ 202.00
Sold SPX Jun 06 2024 5320.0 Put @ 4.70
SPY
Another new ALL TIME high 😦
SPX
Finally a little dip to get this done.
Bought to Close SPX Jun 05 2024 5280.0 Puts @ .55 (sold for 14.90)
Sold SPX Jun 06 2024 5310.0 Puts @ 7.05
SPX 0-DTE waited till after…
SPX 0-DTE
waited till after the ISM reports and entered a wider IC 5270/5300/5315/5345 and collected 13.20 at 7:06 PST. Swings were strong already at that time and I closed for 12.85 at 7:34. I feel lucky.
GME SBUX Calls
Sold 1 GME Jun 14 2024 42/40 Bear Call Spread at $0.22 Credit
#Earnings on 06/11
Rolled 1 SBUX Jun 07 2024 80 Covered Call to 1 SBUX Jun 14 80.0 Call at $0.35 Credit
#EveryLittleBitHelps
BA
Synthetic covered calls. Spending some of my premium received on the roll up and out. This should be a week or two prior to earnings.
Rolled BA Jun 07 2024 172.5 Calls to Jul 19 2024 180.0 Calls @ 2.75 debit. (.90 total now)
SPY Expiration
1 SPY 530 Diagonal Call
1 SPY 512/521 Bull Put Spread
1 SPY 516/522 Bull Put Spread
1 SPY 519/522 Bull Put Spread
1 SPY 521 Diagonal Put
SPY Puts
Extending my Put Ladder:
Sold 1 SPY Jun 05 2024 515/522 Bull Put Spread at $0.15 Credit
Sold 1 SPY Jun 06 2024 513/521 Bull Put Spread at $0.25 Credit
Sold 1 SPY Jun 07 2024 517/520 Bull Put Spread at $0.31 Credit
VKTX NVO Calls / VKTX Put
#coveredcalls
$VKTX STO 6/7 65 call at .63
$NVO STO 6/7 139 call at 1.52
#shortputs
$VKTX STO 6/7 60 put at .58
SPY Puts
Extending my Put ladder
Sold 1 SPY Jun 05/2024 514/520 Bull Put Spread at $0.22 Credit.
Also added 1 short SPY Jun 04 2024 521.0 Put at $0.13
Options Bistro 