FearTrade | Options Bistro

Back on October 13th I suggested an in-the-money put spread that some of you followed (original post here: https://optionsbistro.wordpress.com/2016/10/13/overcoming-fear/).

The trade was the Nov 25th 2175/2150 put spread for 14.00, when SPX was at 2123. Since that day, SPX got to a low of 2083 and a high of 2184 (today). So it is not ITM at the moment. This makes the decision on whether to roll a bit tough. With the current bullish trend, it is likely to expire worthless. But if we breakdown and go below 2175 again, the value of the spread will shoot up quickly against you.

So today you have three options:
1. Close the trade and take a nice profit.
2. Roll the trade into the following week for even or slight credit. You will be able to move your strikes 10 points lower, to the Dec 2nd 2165/2140 spread. This is basically what we’d be doing if we were still ITM (although not as easily). You can also choose to roll it to a further week at lower strikes.
3. Stick with the trade for more upside and a cheaper exit next week, or expire worthless.

I will probably be taking option 3, but watching closely through tomorrow. If this breakout fails, I will probably be rolling it before the weekend.

Questions welcome, and let us know what you do with the trade! #SPXcampaign #FearTrade #ITMrolling

It’s the toughest thing about trading, and nothing has provided a bigger leap away from fear than my recent experience of managing an ITM call spread. I was short the August 2130/2155 call spread as the SPX reached all time highs of 2193. It was a big trade, too, over twice my normal size, and it sucked as the index went through my strikes (I had already rolled several call spreads, but let this one sit). But as it sat there ITM for days and then weeks, I grew more relaxed and started exploring ways to roll my way out. I figured a system, without increasing position size, and started rolling it one week before it expired. All it would take is a decent pullback or two and I’d be out. It took about 6 rolls and now I’m out with no loss, in fact retaining the profit I expected on the original trade.

Going ITM and realizing max loss seems to be a great fear for many option traders. To help overcome it, I suggest trading an ITM spread on an index. Indices do not have huge overnight gaps like stocks, and there is no possibility of early assignment, as they are cash settled at expiration, never earlier. Your risk never changes, whether you are 100 points OTM or 100 points ITM (except with Portfolio Margin, which is unpredictable).

Today, I sold a 1-lot:
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 2175/2150 put spread for 14.00. I will wait until mid November to even worry about it. It will be similar to having a trade go against you, except we now have the benefit of a very fat credit upon entry, rather than the 1.30 or so for which we usually sell these spreads.

Feel free to join if you are looking to overcome some of your fear. If you do it, understand that if it remains ITM in November, we may be selling condors or extra options during the rolls. But as before, I do not plan to increase risk very much. #SPXcampaign #FearTrade #ITMrolling