#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 4th 5640/5660-5790/5810 condors for 1.10, IV 23.01%, deltas -.06 +.06

Looking at a chart for this condor the price has been lowering all night so I’m going to enter before market, since today has no major economic moves. IV seems high just because what’s coming the rest of the week.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5765/5785-5800/5820 condors for 1.00, IV 22.25%, deltas -.05 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 31st 5705/5725-5845/5865 condors for 1.25, IV 22.59%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 30th 5760/5780-5875/5895 condors for 1.30, IV 18.47%, deltas -.07 +.07

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 29th 5740/5760-5860/5880 condors for 1.15, IV 18.58%, deltas -.06 +.07

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 5745/5765-5865/5885 condors for 1.30, IV 18.10, deltas -.06 +.07, sold 17 minutes before the open.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 24th 5730/5750-5855/5875 condors for 1.00, IV 20.50%, deltas -.06 +.06

I waited until after open on this one since recently selling before open hasn’t given much edge.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 23rd 5770/5790-5880/5900 condors for 0.969, IV 15.96%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 22nd 5765/5785-5885/5905 condors for 1.05, IV 17.93%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold top open $SPX Oct 21st 5805/5785 put spreads for .65, IV 15.86%, delta -.07

With overnight movement it looks like we could be near bottom of a swing, so I’m not going to sell a call side with such low premium when we have room to rise.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5780/5800-5900/5920 condors for 1.10, IV 17.95%, deltas -.07 +.05

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 17th 5835/5865-5870/5900 condors for 15.35, IV 18.33%

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 15th 5800/5820-5900/5920 condors for 1.25, IV 16.85%, deltas -.08 +.07

Waited for the open then went a bit aggressive since no overnight moves and no data releases today.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 14th 5745/5765-5860/5880 condors for 1.10, IV 16.34%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 11th 5710/5730-5825/5845 condors for 1.25, IV 18.48%, deltas -.07 +.07

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 10th 5690/5710-5840/5860 condors for 1.20, IV 24.40%, deltas -.07 +.04

Leaning bullish on this since I feel the dip will bounce back.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5665/5686-5795/5815 condors for 1.00, IV 19.03%, deltas -.06 +.05

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 8th 5615/5635-5760/5780 condors for 1.25, IV 22.15%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 5635/5655-5800/5820 condors for 1.35, IV 26.95%, deltas -.08 +.05

I waited for the first red candle after the Jobs report on the 5-min futures chart. Took 35 minutes.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd 5610/5630-5765/5785 condors for 1.25, IV 24.96%, deltas -.06 +.05

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 5605/5625-5765/5785 condors for 1.15, IV 24.61%, deltas -.05 +.05

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5670/5690-5810/5830 condors for 1.25, IV 21.54%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 30th 5630/5650-5780/5800 condors for 1.20, IV 23.12%, deltas -.06 +.06

$VIX moving higher and deltas wider than last week

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 24th 5690/5720-5725/5755 condors for 14.70, IV 17.70%

Premium was pretty low for the wide condor so I skipped it.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 23rd 5630/5650-5755/5775 condors for 1.45, IV 19.88%, deltas -.07 +.07

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5610/5630-5775/5795 condors for 1.10, IV 25.11%, deltas -.06, +.05. I went a strike further on call side just to reduce risk on a Friday in a week with strong profit already.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 19th 5580/5600-5750/5770 condors for 1.90, IV 25.40%, deltas -.10, +.06

#SPX0dte Well, taking the shot at an unpredictable move but high premium.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 18th 5600/5630-5635/5665 condors for 25.05.
Risking 4.95, which is just a bit more in my profit so far this week. For now I’m targeting to close at 20.00, for 5.05 profit. But I’ll keep an eye on the day and maybe take profits early if there’s some decay. On the announcement and/or press conference, premium can drop super fast, and if we are not too far from the center point, 20.00 should not be a problem. But if we are far from center, I can either brace for a drift back through center or take a loss smaller than 4.95.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 16th 5535/5555-5670/5690 condors for 1.30, IV 22.12%, deltas -.07 +.07. A bit tighter on deltas than normal, looking for sideways day with no economic news and traders waiting for Wednesday Fed decision.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 13th 5505/5525-5665/5685 condors for 1.15, IV 24.20%, deltas -.06 +.05

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 12th 5460/5480-5615/5635 condors for 1.383, IV 26.06%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5385/5405-5555/5575 condors for 1.35, IV 29.67%, deltas -.06 +.05, at 8:50a ET

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 10th 5380/5400-5535/5555 condors for 1.40, IV 25.66%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 5320/5340-5505/5525 condors for 1.40, IV 30.91%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 6th 5385/5405-5585/5605 condors for 1.55, IV 35.83%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 3rd 5540/5560-5685/5705 condors for 1.15, IV 22.11%, deltas -.06 +.05

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5670/5690 condors for 1.10, IV 26.10%, deltas -.06 +.04

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 27th 5535/5555-5660/5680 condors for 1.05, IV 19.55%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 5560/5580-5685/5705 condors for .90, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 18.45%

#SPX0dte. Waited until Powell’s speech start time. Sold to Open $SPX Aug 23rd 5505/5525-5680/5700 condors for 1.40, deltas -.07 +.05. Leaning bullish and I can see already we’re moving in that direction.

#SPX0dte. Pretty glad I had to be out today, otherwise I would have traded soemthing this morning and taken a loss. Now I’m trying for a scalp at day’s end: Sold to Open Aug 22nd 5555/5575-5580/5600 condors for 8.00.

#SPX0dte At 9:57p ET, sold to Open $SPX 5510/5530-5650/5670 condors for 1.30, IV 15.39%, deltas -.06 +.06

With overnight moves being minor and premium/width returning to anemic, I’m selling night before to get more juice.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5545/5565-5645/5665 condors for 1.30, deltas -.09 +.07, IV 15.80%

These trades have already returned to their anemic premium and width from before the mini-crash. After yesterday’s strong move higher I am going more aggressive with higher deltas, thinking that a ninth straight day of gains is less likely than an eighth, but also assuming there won’t be any dramatic collapse.

#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Aug 19th 5480/5500-5605/5625 condors for 1.072, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 19.02%

#SPX0dte Just after the open, Sold to Open $SPX Aug 16th 5435/5455-5585/5605 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.99%

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 15th 5495/5525-5530/5560 condors for 12.30, IV 19.02%

What a sea change across the week. Less than 2 hours after open and the ATM condor only around 12 bucks. Last Friday this didn’t happen until 45 minutes before close.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 14th 5345/5365-5510/5530 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 29.51%

Bullish leaning.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 13th 5265/5285-5420/5440 condors for 1.20, IV 28.26%, deltas -.07 +.05

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 5255/5275-5415/5435 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 26.88%

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 9th 5190/5170 put spreads for 1.00, delta -.07, IV 43.78%

After three straight days of being stopped on call side I’m going to try to leg in today, and since we are down a bit now starting with put side. Of course, this likely means today will NOT see a spike higher.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 8th 5115/5135-5345/5365 condors for 1.70, IV 46.46%, deltas -.06 +.07

Waited until after the open today… zero for two this week on these so maybe this will work.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 7th 5150/5170-5370/5390 condors for 1.70, IV 38.77%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Aug 6th 5060/5080-5330/5350 condors for 1.65, IV 51.15%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte At 12:26p PT, sold to open $SPX Aug 5th 5145/5175-5180/5210 condors for 14.45, IV a lot. BTC at 12:49 for 12.50, about 10%. Was going for 10.00 but it looked to be threatening to go lower so I got out. Had I waited a minute longer, it would have hit 10.00! It didn’t hit my expiration breakeven point so I probably shouldn’t have chickened out, but when down 3%, fear is a factor.

#SPX0dte I stayed away most of Friday, even though I modeled a couple of wide condors which would have been easy wins. The tight condors lose value at a very slow rate on these high volatility days. They were around 21.00 at the open and still almost 20.00 four hours later. My plan was to wait until much closer to the close, as I did on Wednesday.

(All times I mention and on the chart are PACIFIC). By 11am, it looked as if enough consolidation was forming to make the trade viable. I liked the condor centered at 30-35, but then it dropped and was hovering around 15. So I sold the 15-20, after which it went right back up to 30-35 and resumed consolidation there. Premium was dropping but not enough because I was off center. So I covered for 8% profit and immediately reentered the 30-35 for 15.95, with only 46 minutes left in day. Premium began draining. The red dashed lines represent the expiration breakevens for this trade. As long as those were not breached, I was safe from loss. It got down to 8.00 at 12:54 and I covered, 50% profit. Had I let it go, I could have gotten out for around 6.00 a few minutes later, but had I let it expire, I would have paid 11.56.

So, this is the first major volatility I’ve seen since starting this trade early this year. It’s clear this trade is good near the open in low-VOL, but this end-of-day trade can be a winner in hi-VOL. I think you need to see some consolidation in middle of the day; if not, the wide moves could continue all the way to the close. For instance, this trade would not have been as easy on Tuesday or Thursday this week. Also, it’s best to get out before close, as too often the last two 5-min bars can be quite big and throw you outside breakeven very quickly.

#SPX0dte At 11:21pm ET, sold to Open $SPX Aug 1st 5435/5455-5610/5630 condors for 1.65, IV 20.35%, deltas -.06 +.06

#SPX0dte I would have stayed away but I was smarting from yesterday so I took a shot. I liked the pullback from the HoD and sold the $SPX July 31st 5500/5530-5535/5565 condors for 15.20 at 3:21p ET. White knuckled through the dip and it came back to center and exited for 11.00. Over 15.00 with only 39 minutes left in the day is super… but we all know this thing can move FAR in the last hour on FOMC decision days.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 30th 5375/5395-5535/5555 condors for 1.35, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 16.21%

Sorry for not posting today, I just got back from Colorado last night. I sold a wide condor last night and two tight condors today for a total of +3.65. Hopefully tomorrow will be another quiet day so I can avoid Wednesday altogether.

#SPX0dte Bought to Open $SPX July 26th 5420/5450-5455/5485 condors for -18.50 at 11:26am, sold to close at 12:06 for 20.50.

Going long has been best bet this week, although today certainly quieter than yesterday so not pressing this beyond 2 bucks. May try again in a bit when the ATM condors are cheaper and require less of a move to turn profit.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 25th 5330/5350-5500/5520 condors for 1.35, IV 29.61%, deltas -.06 +.07

A 150-pt spread and now that data caused only minor movement we might have a quieter day than yesterday.

I didn’t post yesterday because I was experimenting with a bearish bias. I lost a bit with an overnight short condor, fortunately getting a little bump higher at the open that allowed me to get out. Then I BOUGHT the ATM tight condor for 18.50, and later closed it for 22.50. Could have let it expire and gotten 30. I also made a couple more bucks by buying a put spread with 25 minutes before close and cashing out at expiration. A good day but a bit haphazard and off-plan. More often lately, buying rather than selling is the safer bet.

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 23rd 5530/5560-5565/5595 condors for 16.95, IV 20.17%

Last Night: Sold July 23rd 5480/5500-5615/5635 condors for 1.25, deltas -.08 +.06

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5510/5540-5545/5575 condors for 17.25, IV 21.49%, at 9:33 ET

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 19th 5520/5550-5555/5585 condors for 19.70, IV 25.31%, at 8:15am.

No hedge trade at the moment. Looking for 10%.

#SPX0dte So after two days out of three with the long trade doing nicely and the short one doing poorly, I decided to only buy the hedge long condor last night and wait for morning for the short.

Last night, bought to open $SPX July 18th 5500/5520-5670/5690 condors for 1.05, deltas -.05 +.05.

This was pretty wide and a nice condor to SELL, or even a strike or two tighter in. Sure enough it is down to about .60 now. But still there for a hedge in case we get a big bounce or collapse. Looking to enter ATM after the open, unless we swing wildly from 8:30 data.