SPXpire and new trade strategy

#SPX1dte Expired: $SPX Apr 22nd 2595/2615-2840/2860 condors, sold yesterday for 1.25.

Something I’ve been trying for a couple weeks but haven’t yet shared because it was in “test phase”… since volatility is here to stay for awhile, I have been buying one-week-out ATM condors with only 10-points between the shorts. The idea is that the market moves, and we most likely will be higher or lower a week from now.

So far it worked five times in a row… then the 6th one today was the first loss! But I’m going to stick with it as long as it continues to work and volatility is with us.

Today’s closing trade:
Last Wednesday, bought to Open $SPX Apr 22nd 2760/2780-2790/2810 condors for 18.35. (opening price has consistently been 18.25-18.40)
Today, sold to close the put side for 3.50 at 9:49am PT. Call side expired at 8.02. Total credit 11.52, so 6.80 loss.

All of the other ones I have done have either expired for 20.00, or closed a day or more early for 19.00+.

It is difficult to have much control over these trades unless you wish to go for pure speculation and leg out on ups and downs during the week. Otherwise you are at the mercy of the market on expiration day. Today was a bit nerve-wracking because SPX hovered in my dead zone for most of the morning. When it started trending upward, I took the profit on put side (first time I have legged out). Call side looked to be a 100% winner until the last 5 minutes, when it quickly turned from a 5.15 winner to a 6.80 loser. If I had exited before the drop i probably could have gotten 17.00 or so maximum, since the short 2810 call kept a lot of value until the last couple minutes of the day.

Bought to Open $SPX Apr 29th 2780/2800-2810/2830 condors for 18.40.

Also currently holding
Apr 24th 2820/2840-2850/2870
Apr 27th 2810/2830-2840/2860

#shortputs HTZ Bottom feeding sold…

#shortputs HTZ

Bottom feeding sold May 1, 4 put for .42

NVTA Call

#coveredcalls
$NVTA STO 5/15 20 call at .45

PTON CC Apr 24 $31 Net $30.14

#coveredcalls, #peloton

#shortputs #closing EWZ XOM EWZ…

#shortputs #closing EWZ XOM

EWZ bought May 1, 22 put for .24, sold for .57 on April 15, still have June 19, 20 put.
XOM bought May 1, 35 put for .34, sold for .67 on April 15.

SPY

#ShortPuts – Keeping the rolling 7 day ladder going…

Bought to Close SPY APR 22 2020 272.0 Puts @ .03 (sold for 1.45)
Sold SPY APR 29 2020 267.0 Puts @ 2.04

VIX -bought yesterday for the…

VIX -bought yesterday for the eventual re-opening of the economy
Bought 1 SVXY Jan 15 2021 35.0 Call @ 3.00
Bought 1 VXX Jan 15 2021 15.0 Put @ 0.75
Bought 1 VXX Jan 15 2021 20.0 Put @ 1.99

#shortputs CCL Sold April 24,…

#shortputs CCL

Sold April 24, 11.50 put for .40

#closing USO Bought May 15,…

#closing USO

Bought May 15, 2 put for .35, sold yesterday for .54

LRCX earnings analysis

#Earnings $LRCX reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Jan. 29, 2020 AC +4.26%
Oct. 23, 2019 AC +13.90%
July 31, 2019 AC -1.36%
April 24, 2019 AC +4.93%
Jan. 23, 2019 AC +15.69% Biggest UP
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +1.31%
July 26, 2018 AC +7.19%
April 17, 2018 AC -4.03%
Jan. 24, 2018 AC -4.99% Biggest DOWN
Oct. 17, 2017 AC +3.05%
July 26, 2017 AC -2.12%
April 18, 2017 AC +6.85%

Avg (+ or -) 5.81%
Bias 3.72%, strongly positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 260.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 234.20 to 285.80 (+/- 9.9%)
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 244.90 to 275.10
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (15.7%): 219.21 to 300.79
Based on DOWN max only (-5.0%): 247.03

Open to requests for other symbols.

CC’s into back of Week

CVX 24APR2020 85 C
EW 24APR2020 220 C 
HAL 24APR2020 7.5 C
ILMN 24APR2020 315 C  
SDC 24APR2020 4.5 C
T 24APR2020 31 C  

Had DXCM CC’s pulled away on Tuesday.