I’m not selling an #SPX1dte trade today as the market is too unpredictable and the moves too large. Obviously I was way too early on my bearish trades this morning. Will likely double down if we open tomorrow higher or flat.
Daily Archives: Tuesday, July 20, 2021
NFLX earnings analysis
#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.
April 20, 2021 AC -7.40%
Jan. 19, 2021 AC +16.85%
Oct. 20, 2020 AC -6.92%
July 16, 2020 AC -6.52%
April 21, 2020 AC -2.86%
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27%
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%
Avg (+ or -) 6.06%
Bias -1.96%, negative bias on earnings.
With stock at 535.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 503.28 to 566.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 502.60 to 567.40
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.9%): 444.85 to 625.15
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 480.06
Open to requests for other symbols.
TNA Calls
Sold TNA Jul 23 2021 88.5 Diagonal Calls at $0.54.
Paired with existing short 88.50 & 82.50 Diagonal Puts creating one 88.50 straddle and one 82.50/88.50 strangle.
TNA is up 7 points today
New VXX Contango Trades
Bought to open VXX Jun 16 2023 5.0 Put/ Sold to Open VXX Jul 23 2021 30.5 Put at $0.07 Credit.
Short DTE = 3
Long DTE = 696
Bought to open VXX Jun 16 2023 5.0 Puts/ Sold to Open VXX Jul 30 2021 28.5 Puts at $0.07 Credit.
Short DTE = 10
Long DTE = 696
#VXXContango
Markets
- What downside warning?
TLRY
Sold TLRY Jul 23 2021 15.5 Covered Calls at $0.11
Sold TLRY Jul 23 2021 16.00 Diagonal Calls at $0.09.
vs stock put to me Friday
VXX early Put rolldown
Using the elevated stock price to do an early rolldown
Bought to close VXX Jul 23 2021 32.0 Diagonal Put at $0.97. Sold last week on a roll at $3.53.
Replaced it with a short VXX Jul 30 2021 30.5 Diagonal Put at $1.14 for a 0.17 Credit.
Dropped the short strike 1.50 points and pushed it out of the money.
VXX
Setting up new long Puts for future #VXXContango trades
Bought to Open VXX Oct 15 2021 19.0 Put at $0.25 (brand new expiration month)
Bought to Open VXX Sep 17 2021 21.0 Put at $0.15 (adding to my position)
ROKU
#ShortStrangles – Selling against a short put.
Sold ROKU JUL 30 2021 440.0 Call @ 3.30
Position now JUL 30 380/440 @ 8.15
AMC
Sold 1 AMC Jul 23 2021 42.0 Diagonal Call at $1.12
Replaces a similar call that expired Friday.
NVDA post split pre earnings
#ShortPuts – Just to get it back in play. Always one of my favorites until it went vertical.
Sold NVDA AUG 13 2021 170.0 Put @ 3.25
SPX trades
#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 23rd 4245/4265 call spreads for 14.10. Condors bought yesterday for 18.00. Counting on another drop by Friday to sell put side.
Also, bought to open July 26th 4260/4240 put spreads for 5.65. Going put side only for this one.
Markets
- From ZeroHedge
Goldman Says “Don’t Buy This Dip” And Here’s Why…
“99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).”
COIN
Sold 1 COIN Jul 23 2021 195 Diagonal Put at $0.89
#OnlySpreads #TripleDip
TQQQ,
BTC August 6, 90 put at .70
BTC August 13, 90 put at 1.05
Options Bistro 