SPX trades

I’m not selling an #SPX1dte trade today as the market is too unpredictable and the moves too large. Obviously I was way too early on my bearish trades this morning. Will likely double down if we open tomorrow higher or flat.

NFLX earnings analysis

#Earnings $NFLX reports tonight after the bell. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

April 20, 2021 AC -7.40%
Jan. 19, 2021 AC +16.85%
Oct. 20, 2020 AC -6.92%
July 16, 2020 AC -6.52%
April 21, 2020 AC -2.86%
Jan. 21, 2020 AC -3.58%
Oct. 16, 2019 AC +2.46%
July 17, 2019 AC -10.27%
April 16, 2019 AC -1.31%
Jan. 17, 2019 AC -3.98%
Oct. 16, 2018 AC +5.28%
July 16, 2018 AC -5.24%

Avg (+ or -) 6.06%
Bias -1.96%, negative bias on earnings.

With stock at 535.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 503.28 to 566.72
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 502.60 to 567.40
Based on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (16.9%): 444.85 to 625.15
Based on DOWN max only (-10.3%): 480.06

Open to requests for other symbols.

TNA Calls

Sold TNA Jul 23 2021 88.5 Diagonal Calls at $0.54.
Paired with existing short 88.50 & 82.50 Diagonal Puts creating one 88.50 straddle and one 82.50/88.50 strangle.
TNA is up 7 points today

New VXX Contango Trades

Bought to open VXX Jun 16 2023 5.0 Put/ Sold to Open VXX Jul 23 2021 30.5 Put at $0.07 Credit.
Short DTE = 3
Long DTE = 696
Bought to open VXX Jun 16 2023 5.0 Puts/ Sold to Open VXX Jul 30 2021 28.5 Puts at $0.07 Credit.
Short DTE = 10
Long DTE = 696
#VXXContango

Markets

  • What downside warning?

2021-07-20_8-06-48

2021-06-25_11-02-49_0

OIP

TLRY

Sold TLRY Jul 23 2021 15.5 Covered Calls at $0.11
Sold TLRY Jul 23 2021 16.00 Diagonal Calls at $0.09.
vs stock put to me Friday

VXX early Put rolldown

Using the elevated stock price to do an early rolldown
Bought to close VXX Jul 23 2021 32.0 Diagonal Put at $0.97. Sold last week on a roll at $3.53.

Replaced it with a short VXX Jul 30 2021 30.5 Diagonal Put at $1.14 for a 0.17 Credit.
Dropped the short strike 1.50 points and pushed it out of the money.

VXX

Setting up new long Puts for future #VXXContango trades
Bought to Open VXX Oct 15 2021 19.0 Put at $0.25 (brand new expiration month)
Bought to Open VXX Sep 17 2021 21.0 Put at $0.15 (adding to my position)

ROKU

#ShortStrangles – Selling against a short put.

Sold ROKU JUL 30 2021 440.0 Call @ 3.30

Position now JUL 30 380/440 @ 8.15

AMC

Sold 1 AMC Jul 23 2021 42.0 Diagonal Call at $1.12
Replaces a similar call that expired Friday.

NVDA post split pre earnings

#ShortPuts – Just to get it back in play. Always one of my favorites until it went vertical.

Sold NVDA AUG 13 2021 170.0 Put @ 3.25

SPX trades

#SPX7dteLong Sold to close $SPX July 23rd 4245/4265 call spreads for 14.10. Condors bought yesterday for 18.00. Counting on another drop by Friday to sell put side.

Also, bought to open July 26th 4260/4240 put spreads for 5.65. Going put side only for this one.

Markets

  • From ZeroHedge

Goldman Says “Don’t Buy This Dip” And Here’s Why…
“99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).”

COIN

Sold 1 COIN Jul 23 2021 195 Diagonal Put at $0.89
#OnlySpreads #TripleDip

TQQQ,

BTC August 6, 90 put at .70
BTC August 13, 90 put at 1.05