Daily Archives: Friday, August 5, 2022

Jeff 1:27 pm on Friday, August 5, 2022
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Upside Warning in Effect

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Friday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.

Here is data on last several Upside Warnings. The only one in 2022 completely failed, and overall the signal has not performed as strongly since 2020.

Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%

Option Iceman 1:08 pm on Friday, August 5, 2022
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OptionsExpiration

Rolled out and up(in some cases) all my TNA and TQQQ Covered and Diagonal short calls for small credits. Rolled all my LABU Calls earlier.

What’s left (not much) expired:
SLV 15/18 Bull Put Spreads

TLRY 5.0 Covered Calls

VXX 33/24.5 Bear Call Spreads
VXX 24.0 Diagonal Calls
VXX 23.5 Diagonal Calls
VXX 20.5 Diagonal Puts — #VXXContango

Jeff 11:31 am on Friday, August 5, 2022
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SPX trades

#SPX5dte Bought to Open $SPX Aug 10th 4160/4180 call spreads for 7.00.

Since an Upside Warning looks likely to fire at today’s close, I am going short-term bullish and only buying a call spread rather than a condor. I will look to close this Monday or Tuesday on any significant rise in SPX. The inflation number for July will be released on the 10th (Wednesday), so volatility should increase on these options and hopefully boost the price as well.

Current IV on the Aug 10th SPX option chain is 18.25%

#spx1dte

fuzzballl 10:51 am on Friday, August 5, 2022
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SPY TLT

#ShortPuts #CoveredStraddles – A few more.

SPY: Aggressive add. Come and get it Mr. Market.

Sold SPY AUG 19 2022 410.0 Put @ 5.00

TLT: Long covered stock at 117 strike. Selling puts to set up some covered straddles.

Sold TLT AUG 19 2022 117.0 Puts @ 2.20

Option Iceman 8:44 am on Friday, August 5, 2022  

LABU Rollout and multiple Rollups

This ETF continues it’s remarkable run this week
Bought to close LABU Aug 05 2022 9.0 Covered Calls / Sold to Open LABU Aug 12 2022 9.0 Covered Calls at $0.15 Credit
Bought to close LABU Aug 05 2022 9.5 Covered Calls / Sold to Open LABU Aug 12 2022 10.0 Covered Calls at $0.02 Credit

Bought to close LABU Aug 05 2022 9.5 Diagonal Calls / Sold to Open LABU Aug 12 2022 10.0 Diagonal Calls at $0.02 Credit
Bought to close LABU Aug 05 2022 10.0 Diagonal Calls / Sold to Open LABU Aug 12 2022 10.5 Diagonal Calls at $0.20 Credit
Bought to close LABU Aug 05 2022 10.5 Diagonal Calls / Sold to Open LABU Aug 12 2022 11.0 Diagonal Calls at $0.30 Credit (while taking a gain on this week’s calls sold yesterday)

fuzzballl 7:30 am on Friday, August 5, 2022
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NVDA SPY TSLA TQQQ

#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls #JadeLizards – A few today.

NVDA: Put selling and covered rolling. Earnings on the 24th.

Bought to Close NVDA AUG 5 2022 182.5 Put @ .05 (sold for 5.00)
Sold NVDA AUG 12 2022 185.0 Put @ 4.00

Rolled NVDA AUG 5 2022 185.0 Calls to AUG 12 2022 190.0 Calls @ .75 credit

SPY: Re-loading.

Bought to Close SPY AUG 5 2022 402.5 Put @ .05 (sold for 2.50)
Bought to Close SPY AUG 5 2022 405.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 3.25)

Sold SPY AUG 19 2022 405.0 Put @ 4.00
Sold SPY AUG 19 2022 407.5 Put @ 4.30
Sold SPY AUG 19 2022 407.5 Put @ 4.75

TSLA: Closing call side of the Lizard to save a couple extra bucks and rolling put side up for more credit. Leaving just the short put. Original lizard sold for 15.25.

Bought to Close TSLA AUG 19 2022 800/815 Bear Call Spread @ 12.75 debit
Rolled TSLA AUG 19 2022 650.0 Put to AUG 19 2022 750.0 Put @ 2.55 credit

Position is now short the 750 put @ 5.05

TQQQ: Re-loading.

Bought to Close TQQQ AUG 5 2022 33.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.60)

Sold TQQQ AUG 12 2022 34.0 Puts @ 1.20
Sold TQQQ AUG 12 2022 34.5 Puts @ 1.41
Sold TQQQ AUG 12 2022 35.0 Puts @ 1.62

Jeff 5:40 am on Friday, August 5, 2022
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte In pre-market, after the jobs report and spike down, sold to open $SPX Aug 5th 4060/4040 put spreads for 1.10.

Delta -.07 at time of fill.

Jeff 5:35 am on Friday, August 5, 2022
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July Jobs report

#Jobs — Doubling expectations and defying recession fears; earnings up strongly

Gain of +528,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 268K
Unemployment at 3.5%, down by 0.1
U6 unemployment 6.7%, unchanged
Labor force participation 62.1%, down by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up strongly by 0.5%; 5.2% increase over the year

May jobs revised up by +2K to +386K
June jobs revised up by +26K to +398K