#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX 4065/4085 call spreads for 5.00. Condors sold for 1.50 yesterday.
That wiped out the entire week’s profits. I’m trying very hard to make this strategy work… and to be clear, it IS working. But setbacks can happen very easily if I stray the tiniest bit from any rule. This morning my stop was hit BEFORE the open, so I was looking for best pullback. However, rather than follow my rule of “don’t delay” I tried to tease the market just a little lower by adjusting my limit order. I could have been out for about 2.15 had I just made sure to get filled on the first pullback at 6:45.
It is, of course, Murphy’s Law that when I DO go for the fill aggressively, the market pulls back much lower. But if I don’t, it inevitably goes higher, like this morning.
As most of you know, I have been at this #SPX1dte strategy for a few years. I have slowly been eliminating my bad habits. The main change this summer has been to stop playing around after a stop is hit (my stop is if SPX gets within the day’s “expected move,” visible on Think-or-swim’s option chain). That has gotten me out at decent prices, either holding on to some profit or incurring losses equal or less than my max profit. Today, I failed and I “played around”.
One thing I need to measure, which may take another year of data to assess, is whether not using any stop would be more profitable in the long run. The majority of times I am stopped out, the trade would have survived had I left it. If those instances outnumber the times where my strikes are blown through significantly enough, then “letting it go” may be the way of the future. It would have to mean that one loss of -19.00 is exceeded a lot by ignored stops where .90 to 1.50 in profit is realized, and losses are avoided.