Daily Archives: Wednesday, November 23, 2022

hcgdavis 8:17 pm on Wednesday, November 23, 2022  

Happy Thanksgiving!

Have not posted in a long time but still follow along.
@jeffcp66 thanks for the upside warning today, hope it holds 🙂

Have been busy trading and developing and launching several services through Traders Reserve and also working on the quantitative analysis stuff. Along with that we have been working on several new tactics that help handle market volatility and optimizing existing tactics (a lot of the same stuff people do here) using the AI. But tough market this year. Hopefully next year normalizes some. Positive for the year but only by about 36% this year which is about a third to half of our normal returns. Anything positive this year is a check in the win column!

Cheers, Chris

Jeff 3:38 pm on Wednesday, November 23, 2022
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Upside Warning in effect

#VIXIndicator An Upside Warning took effect on Wednesday after three consecutive closes of $VIX below the 78.6 Fib line drawn from pre-correction low and correction high. This could mean higher prices in coming days or weeks.

Here is data on last several Upside Warnings.

Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%

fuzzballl 1:34 pm on Wednesday, November 23, 2022
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NVDA SPY XBI

#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – Finally catching up on last two days.

NVDA: Not my best rolls considering the ongoing rally.

Rolled NVDA NOV 25 2022 165.0 Put to DEC 16 2022 162.5 Put @ 1.20 credit (12.65 total now)
Rolled NVDA NOV 25 2022 167.5 Puts to DEC 16 2022 165.0 Puts @ .30 credit (2.70 total now)

SPY: Closed short puts, opened short puts, rolled puts for more credit and rolled calls out and up.

Bought to Close SPY NOV 23 2022 397.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 3.42)

Bought to Close SPY NOV 25 2022 390.0 Put @ .05 (sold for 3.00)
Bought to Close SPY NOV 25 2022 393.0 Put @ .10 (sold for 3.57)
Bought to Close SPY NOV 25 2022 394.0 Put @ .12 (sold for 3.96)

Sold SPY DEC 9 2022 392.5 Put @ 2.45
Sold SPY DEC 9 2022 395.0 Put @ 3.05
Sold SPY DEC 9 2022 395.0 Put @ 3.15

Rolled SPY DEC 16 2022 380.0 Puts to DEC 16 2022 390.0 Puts @ 2.00 credit (16.50 total now)

Rolled SPY NOV 25 2022 385.0 Call to DEC 9 2022 387.0 Call @ .05 credit (3.65 total now)
Rolled SPY NOV 25 2022 384.0 Call to DEC 16 2022 387.0 Call @ .41 credit (3.45 total now)

XBI: Rolling covered calls down for additional credit and rolling highest strike puts.

Rolled XBI NOV 25 2022 81.0 Calls to NOV 25 2022 79.5 Calls @ .55 credit (3.05 total now)

Rolled XBI NOV 25 2022 83.0 Puts to DEC 2 2022 83.0 Puts @ .90 credit (4.60 total now)
Rolled XBI NOV 25 2022 83.5 Puts to DEC 2 2022 83.5 Puts @ .80 credit (3.40 total now)
Rolled XBI NOV 25 2022 84.0 Puts to DEC 2 2022 84.0 Puts @ .67 credit (4.80 total now)

Jeff 12:32 pm on Wednesday, November 23, 2022
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SPX 1-dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 25th 3950/3970-4080/4100 condors for 1.00, SPX at 4026, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 11.3%

jsd501 9:26 am on Wednesday, November 23, 2022  

SPX Iron condor

Just back from the dentist but, earlier today I sold the November 23, 4080/4100 call spread for .20 cents along with the 3900/3880 put spread from yesterday.

Ramie 9:24 am on Wednesday, November 23, 2022  

$TSLA Put Spread

I think the Musk/Twitter panic is played out. Sold to open $TSLA Dec 16 160/150 bull put spread @ 1.78.

Jeff 8:49 am on Wednesday, November 23, 2022
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SPX risk off

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Nov 23rd 4065/4085 call spreads for .20. Also closing put spreads. I doubt today’s Fed minutes will have much affect, but cannot be certain.

Option Iceman 8:41 am on Wednesday, November 23, 2022
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SPY OptionsExpiration

Expiring at the close:
1 SPY Nov 23 2022 325/384 Bull Put Spread
Multiple writes against the long put (bought on 11/01) including this 384 (sold on Friday at $0.54)
#DailyLadder

Option Iceman 6:49 am on Wednesday, November 23, 2022  

VXX UVXY LABU TQQQ SOXL Calls

Getting what is available this shortened trading week
Sold VXX Nov 25 2022 17.0 Covered Calls at $0.04.
Sold LABU Nov 25 2022 7.5 Covered Calls at $0.05.
Sold UVXY Nov 25 2022 8.5 Calls at $0.05
Sold TQQQ Nov 25 2022 23.5 Calls at $0.11
Sold SOXL Nov 25 2022 14 .0 Calls at $0.16
Keeping the cash flowing in

Jeff 6:36 am on Wednesday, November 23, 2022
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Fed Meeting Minutes today

#FOMC Released at 2pm Eastern… decision on interest rates will be released December 14th.