#SPX1dte Bought to Open $SPX Jun 26th 4285/4305-4395/4415 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, SPX at 4353, IV 7.55%.
Need a move in either direction for profit.
Daily Archives: Friday, June 23, 2023
SPY,
STO August 4, 400 puts at 1.01
SOXL PUT ROLL
#shortputs
$SOXL BTC 6/23 24.50 put and STO 6/30 24.50 put at .15 added credit and fingers crossed.
Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte Since these are so cheap I’m adding another #RiskReversal, since with Upside Warning and declining $VIX, I’m less concerned with a correction coming in the next week (although it is still entirely possible, in which case I will stop out of put side).
Sold to Open $SPX Jun 30th 4250/4230 put spreads
Bought to Open Jun 30th 4455/4475 call spreads
Net DEBIT -0.25
TQQQ,
I have this long term trade in 2025 and STC the calls at an average price of 11.40 today with my cost basis at 10.49 and I am still short the 40 puts at 11.71 for January 2025. I remember the 1970,s and the FED had a really hard time getting inflation under control until Volker came along.
SPY,
BTC June 30, 380 puts at .02, sold at 2.29
APLY NVDY
#tinybuys
BOT APLY @22.18
BOT NVDY @23.51
SPX stop hit
#SPX1dte Another day, another stop. Been doing a lot of thinking this week and realized that whatever has caused the change in SPX option chain does not matter. It has changed. At least for now. The distance between .06 deltas for the next day is consistently under 100 and sometimes under 90. This stands in contrast to the 1st quarter this year, during a prolonged upside warning, where the distance stayed above 120 even on calm days.
The $VIX spent that quarter mostly between 17 and 23. This week we have been drifting to 3-year lows even as we head for a down week. This is likely the reason for the tight range, and it hopefully can widen again after we go through a small (or big) correction.
Until then, the last two weeks demonstrate that going LONG on these condors is the more profitable approach. On the traditional #SPX1dte short daily condors, stops were hit on 7 out of the 9 trading days. I could have easily made 2.00 on each one of those days, by buying a condor for about -1.00 and selling one side for at least +3.00. It’s a much tougher strategy to manage however, as selling for 3.00 may remove the chance to sell for more, or even ending day fully ITM for 19.00 profit, which could have been the case last Thursday. But of course, waiting for those types of windfalls risks losing all profit.
This is a tough switch to make. I tried it last summer, but as soon as I switched the market calmed to the point that I had to switch back to short. I stayed with the short strategy ever since. So if I make this switch, it may be short lived; I can wait for widths to return to 105 points or more consistently. Or I may switch between them on a daily basis, based on conditions.
Options Bistro 