#Earnings Trying a low cost speculative play on this. FOSL usually goes down on earnings, so…
Sold to Open bearish butterfly: Feb 19th 28/32/36 put fly for .83. Volatility should plummet tomorrow; breakevens on Friday are 28.85 (16% down) and 35.18 (2% up). Look to make a double or more if we spend any time in 32.00 area for rest of the week.
#Earnings — Just a quick note to share an observation. While volatility typically keeps rising in the weeks and days before earnings, the same is not always true in the hours before the close… If selling naked options or credit spreads, it is often much better to sell in the morning before the release, whether than waiting until afternoon. The problem with selling early is if the stock makes a big intraday move, which can throw off your trade dynamics before the close. But often, an intraday move won’t matter; the drop in IV will overpower a move in the stock.
Take my PCLN trade from this morning, STO Feb 19th 875/900/1275/1300 iron condor for 1.35. Since I traded it, PCLN has moved UP 35 points, or 3%. However, the condor has already bled out. The call side alone was sold for .75 and now is trading for about the same, even though we’ve had a 3% move against the calls. The put side has dropped from .75 to .25.
Just something to keep in mind. I’ve heard some say they that last half-hour before earnings is highest IV. This is normally not true (although it is sometimes). Best IV is most usually in the first half-hour, even on earnings days.
#ContangoETFs
BTC DUST June 25 call for .40. Sold for 2.15 on Jan 11th
BTC NUGT Feb 26th 37 call for 9.00. Sold for 1.35. I have been scaling down my underwater positions without rolling yet. If we get another surge higher I will look to sell longer dated, higher positions.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Feb 26th 1675/1650 put spreads for .20 Sold for 1.25 on Jan 25th. This is my last put credit spread, leaving me 100% short on the SPX strategy…. maybe just in time for a full market recovery? That’s the tough element in this strategy, but it is fully manageable if you follow the rules. My lowest short strike is the 1950 calls. I will look to roll out positions based on what Fib levels get cleared and if the VIX falls below 16.93. I believe we can rally even above 2000 before bears take back the reigns, but we need to be ready in case the correction has ended.
#Earnings Sold to Open $PCLN Feb 19th 875/900/1275/1300 iron condors for 1.35. Over last 12 earnings, Biggest UP move: 8.5% , Biggest DOWN move: -9.6% , Average move: 4.8% . Short strikes are each over 17% OTM.
FB tanking
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to close $SPX March 11th 1600/1575 put spreads for .50. Sold for 1.25. Stop was set higher than usual to avoid longer exposure.
#VXXGame Booked several near-term positions, all at 90% max profit or higher:
BTC UVXY Feb 19th 29 puts for .03
BTC UVXY Feb 26th 28 puts for .03
BTC UVXY Feb 19th 85 calls for .05
BTC UVXY Feb 26th 85 calls for .43
BTC UVXY Feb 26th 95 calls for .23
BTC UVXY Feb 26th 110 calls for .09
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX March 17th 2025/2050 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 1886.
UVXY moving up steadily despite decent strength in SPX
#OptionsExpiration Quite a tough week, with a bullish feeling at the end… rally into next week or more downside ahead?
— Expiring with 100% of max profit:
NUGT 30 and 30.5 puts
UVXY 70 calls
UVXY 29 puts
SPX 1770/1745 put spreads
SPX 1790/1765 put spreads
SPX 1925/1950 call spreads
SPX 1990/2015 call spreads
— Assignment —
VLO 66 put, short stock position closed
#SPXcampaign Putting money where my bearish mouth is… half-sized position,
Bought to Open $SPX March 11th 1650/1625 put spreads for 1.40. Idea is to double money next week if we push back down toward 1800. This is in addition to Robert’s ITM put spread I bought below.
#SPXcampaign, I guess I am 5 points more patient than @Ramie…
Sold to Open $SPX March 4th 1980/2005 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 1857.
BTC $UVXY Feb 19th 70 calls for 1.20. Sold for 2.75. Good enough profit to close this; it was my lowest strike and don’t want to risk what could be a volatile week. Replaced them with…
STO UVXY March 11th 35 puts for 1.35
Smaller account: STO UVXY March 18th 35/33 put spreads for .52
In addition to the ETFs I mentioned below, I am also scaling back on some troubled long positions, as I feel we will be going lower overall in the coming weeks. PLEASE do not take that as gospel… there are some who think we may have made a sufficient base at support around the Oct 2014 lows and will now grind or fly higher. Could be. But my opinion has formed since November’s slide down and only gotten stronger. Perhaps my posting of this will signal the bottom! But until that is clear, I remain bearish.
STC $DATA stock for 40.67. This was earnings assignment from 62 puts. Closed half the position before stock was assigned, now reducing more. I have sold one covered call (March 45)
BTC $NOW Feb 19th 60 puts at 12.00, avg price. Still holding on to some, offset with short calls
If these were stocks like DIS or MSFT going underwater, holding through pain will eventually pay off. But these companies are less liquid and could bleed off and never recover.
I’ve come under some margin pressure for over-sized call positions in both these names. I have been scaling back, closing my only remaining ITM KOLD call and a few NUGT ITM calls. I am refraining from new positions now. As I don’t want to limit my margin power in the future, I will hold off on selling multiple calls on these ETF’s until they are in a very strong uptrend. The spikes seem to happen often enough, but during the boring parts in between I sell too many that then go underwater. I am not rolling now as that wouldn’t help the margin issue, so I will look to profit from these #ContangoETFs in the coming weeks. I still have multiple OTM calls that should be safe in both KOLD and NUGT.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Feb 29th (monthlys) 1950/1975 call spreads for 1.45.
OPEC reportedly ready to cut output = bounce
#Earnings #ShortStock Sold to Open $FB March 4th 110 calls for 1.00 and April 1st 112 call for 1.75. Also, BTC Feb 12th 110 put for 9.20. This is management against my short stock position… sold too many puts when it was above 110, so backing out of some to hold the short stock for lower prices.
#SPXcampaign
Bought to close $SPX Feb 26th 2025/2050 call spreads for .20. Originally sold for 1.55.
Stopped out, March 4th 1700/1675 put spreads for 2.90. Originally sold for 1.25.
#ReverseRoll Sold to Open SPX March 4th 1960/1985 call spreads for 1.45.
Selling a call spread on a 2% down day, you ask? Yes! Call spreads are working without fail. I will definitely sell more with any bounce higher today and every day there’s a bounce, but currently I have stopped selling put spreads more than a few days out.
We are now at the Jan 20th lows.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 1770/1745 put spreads for 1.40. Expires tomorrow. Also still sitting on 1790/1765 spreads, which are a bit of a nail biter.
#VXXGame This is a trade that has been working for 5 weeks straight. On Thursday or Friday, use any spikes in $UVXY to sell calls expiring the following Friday (7 to 8 days DTE) about 25-30 points above current price. Then continue to add more on Monday or Tuesday if there are more spikes. I have this week’s 70 calls that should expire tomorrow, sold between .50 and 1.10. I usually end up with 7-10 contracts around .70-.80 avg price, so a nice $500-$800 gain each week. There will likely be a week where we get a much bigger volatility spike, and this trade will have to be rolled or closed with a loss. But as long as VIX remains orderly, this is working. This morning…
Sold to Open UVXY Feb 19th 85 calls for 1.07. I missed the highs but will sell more if we go higher, or move to a lower strike if UVXY drops.
#LongCalls I wish I had purchased more of these; the Jan 123 calls were a nice profit, but these are a home run. Peeling off one now in case this morning was a short-term high.
STC $TLT Feb 19th 123 call for 11.25. Bought in Dec for 2.00.
Breaking it’s most recent low of 31.90 on 1/20/15; Lowest since Jan 2013
#VXXGame
#SPXcampaign, following @Ramie on this one, Sold to Open $SPX Feb 26th 1980/2005 call spreads for 1.35.
#Earnings STO $NOW March 18th 60 call for 1.05. Selling against underwater puts.
#Earnings Bought to close $PNRA Feb 19th 165/155 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of condor yesterday for 1.95. Will close calls when price pulls back.
#VXXGame STO $UVXY Feb 26th 35 puts for 1.05
STO UVXY March 4th 32 puts for 1.05
#ContangoETFs Got caught in some ITM $NUGT calls so I’ve been rolling a bit out at a time. Today, BTC $NUGT Feb 19th 35 call for 5.50. Will sell a rolled call on the next pop up. Leaving others for now.
Also, followed @Iceman on some of these:
STO NUGT Feb 12th 30 puts for .30
STO NUGT Feb 12th 30.5 puts for .40
STO NUGT Feb 19th 26 put for .90
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX March 11th 2020/2045 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 1873.
#Earnings Filled while driving yesterday: Sold to Open $PNRA Feb 19th 155/165/200/210 iron condors for 1.95. Slightly bearish placement, seeing 200 as resistance near all-time high.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 1925/1950 call spreads for 1.40. Expires this Friday.
#Earnings STO $NOW March 18th 55 call for 1.35 (thanks @Ramie)
STO NOW May 20th 60 call for 2.05
Interesting doji on the VIX chart today. This can often signal a reversal for the VIX, meaning the market goes up. But although we may go up for a day or few, I believe we are trending down for much longer.
STO $UVXY March 18th 28 puts for 1.19
STO $DUST March 18th 5 puts for .65
BTC $ZSL Feb 19th 82.5 calls for .05. Sold pre-split for 1.275 effective price.
BTC $SPX Feb 26th 2015/2040 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.20.
BTC $NOW Feb 19th 60 put for 13.80. Backing out 1 at a time, also will keep some and sell calls.
BTC $KOLD Feb 19th 135 call for 25.90. Sold for 18.10 on Nov 19th. Backing out of Feb positions; will be selling new premium at a later time, but keeping margin in reserve for now.
My VIX indicator fired a signal today when we rose 25% above Thursday’s close (above 27.30). Next signal level is 32.00. These signals continue to mean more volatility ahead until we see a huge capitulation VIX spike (i.e. dump in the market), or lower and lower days on the VIX. A key level to the downside is 19.20, which we almost touched last week but is acting like support now.
Since moving to Portland, I’m now 3 for 3 on market corrections syncing with road trips to LA. I’ll be home Tuesday night so look for relief rally on Wednesday.
#VXXGame STO $UVXY Feb 12th 70 calls for .85 and .90, adding to what I sold last week.
#SPXcampaign Bought to Close $SPX March 4th 1700/1675 put spreads for 2.90. Sold last week for 1.25.
This happened last week too; stopped out on there 5-week spreads and then make up the loss with several same-week spreads. Not an ideal situation. so I have to reconsider selling the 5-week put spreads at all. However, all call spreads work.
#Earnings Bought to Close $BWLD Feb 19th 170 calls for .10. Earnings strangle sold last week for 2.40, now closed for .20 total.
$SPX Sold to Open $SPX March 11th 2000/2025 call spreads for 1.30. Not normal for me to sell calls on such a down day, but every call spread is working and put spreads can be toxic. If this one gets threatened it will mean a significant turnaround for the whole market.
#ContangoETFs #Rolling Got stuck with a few NUGT calls in the 30’s expiring in Feb. All my other calls are 50 and above. Starting with some rolls,
BTC NUGT Feb 26th 35.5 call for 15.00
STO NUGT March 18th 37 call for 15.30
If we get some pullback I will roll some more, and may add some puts below 25, but that’s usually dangerous.
#Earnings For any that followed on these trades, they are obviously busts. Patience is usually a virtue, but in this market and these two tickers, it is hard to say. I peeled off some of DATA on Friday, had a chance to take a small loss on NOW but stayed in and got hit by DATA’s collateral damage. If you are uncomfortable I suggest taking the loss, or at least starting to peel some off. If you want to try Tasty Trade techniques, you can sell calls (even ITM) and just work to bring in more premium as the days go by. When and if these will regain pre-earnings levels is too difficult to predict. Sorry for anyone stuck in these, but this is the peril of selling naked. Going forward, this market has shown that earnings trades must be very cautious with earnings trades.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX March 11th 1600/1575 put spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 1843. Interesting, the March 11th SPX put chain skips most 5-point strikes below 1600. I don’t see that in other weeks.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Feb 26th 2025/2050 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25.
This appears to be the biggest UP-day for the VIX in the last week. Up 11-12% with no immediate pullback. Either a signal of rougher waters ahead, or if it pulls back dramatically today could be a sign of relief rally.
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to Close $SPX Feb 18th 2010/2035 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25. In pre-market I have two SPX put spreads that are threatened, but still below my stops.
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $NUGT March 18th 50 call for 5.25
#Earnings
Bought to close $FB Feb 5th 110 put for 6.40, and covered 100 shares of short FB stock for 103.67. Decided to take advantage of the overdone day and roll the put. I have sold several FB puts and will sell more next week.
Bought to close (1) $DATA Feb 5th 62 put for 20.50. Reducing risk over weekend by taking assignment of fewer shares. Also earlier, I sold (1) March 18th 45 call for 3.00.
#OptionsExpiration Rough week with DATA earnings trade going south. This will be a tougher one to manage than FB or VLO as the company is newer and has an uncertain future.
Expiring with 100% of max profit:
$CMI 81.5 puts
$DATA 100 calls
$SPX 1980/2005 call spreads
$UVXY 23, 27 puts
$UVXY 27/25 put spread
$UVXY 55 calls
$VLO 73 call
#Assignment
$DATA 62 puts, long stock assigned, cost basis 60.80
$VLO 63 & 65 puts, covering most of my short stock position, cost basis over 70.00
Expiring Worthless:
$SPX 1675/1650 put debit spread – bought a couple weeks ago, but the down moves did not come soon enough, so never got a profit to take.
#Earnings Bought to Close $CMI Feb 5th 98 calls for 1.30. Sold as part of earnings strangle for 1.05. Taking the small loss on this one as I don’t need another stock position to manage.
#VXXGame Sold a few UVXY Feb 12th 70 calls for .45. May add a few more if premium increases.
#ContangoETFs Performed some margin management this morning by closing some calls. I will replace the 97 with new ITM calls in the future, but the rest were closed with profit.
BTC KOLD Feb 97 call for 79.00. Sold for 16.10 on Sept 29th
BTC KOLD Feb 250/275 call spreads for .65. Sold for 1.00 on 12/29
BTC KOLD Feb 270 calls for .50. Sold for 16.50 on 12/22
BTC KOLD Feb 240 calls for 1.50. Sold for 14.00 on 12/24
and these BOIL calls closed on GTC orders: (interesting that they finally close on an UP day for BOIL)
BTC BOIL March 35 call for .05. Sold for 2.30 on Nov 6th
BTC BOIL March 30 call for .05. Sold for 3.50 on Nov 5th
#Earnings STO $FB Match 18th 100 put for 2.30 (earlier), and April 15th 87.5 put for 1.60.
I now have more puts than I do short stock, ranging from 87.5 to 110, so now I will have to control which ones I allow to be assigned and which ones I will roll.
#Earnings BTC (1) $DATA Feb 5th 62 put for 18.75. Covered 1 of 5 in case we drop further from here. Looking to sell a March call if we get more bounce.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open March 4th 1680/1655 put spreads for 1.25.
#Earnings DATA bounced off the 40.00 level and has been trending up, even as markets are dropping. The collateral damage though is against sector sister NOW, down 15% today, for which I am short the Feb 19th 60 puts.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 1790/1765 put spreads for 1.35. Expire next Friday.
Cramer slamming it on CNBC and he has a point. Hopefully 40 will hold as 39.57 was overnight low.
Surprised that FB is pulling back this much this soon after topping above 117 on Tuesday. I was nervous about being short the stock at 105.00 cost basis, now it don’t seem so bad.
DATA down over 40% and LNKD down over 30%… these will be all-time biggest one-day post-earnings in each stock’s history (assuming no massive rally today). I did not trade LNKD but some here did, and I sold a strangle on DATA including 62 puts. With a smaller company like DATA, it is tougher to know how long it will be to recover, or if it ever does. For now, I will take assignment of the stock and sell premium around it. The majority of the time, there’s an eventual return to the mean… but other stocks, like TWTR, can keep dropping. This is, of course, why position size is so important with naked options. I always assume the stock could drop to zero and make sure that I wouldn’t lose half my account. (with DATA, I have 5 puts).
LNKD getting slammed, which is why I didn’t trade it… DATA also taking a hit, hope it can stay above my 62 puts…
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Feb 5th 1850/1825 put spreads for .25. Sold for 1.50 this morning.
For Member/Contributors, just wanted to repost details on Adding a Photo/Avatar. You can also change your Public Display Name…
To add an avatar or photo by your Posts, click on the profile button in upper right (round button with silhouette). Select “My Profile.” (this is also where you can enter profile info, including Public Display Name, and adjust email notifications). Click on the silhouette. This will take you to a separate site, Gravatar, where you can upload a picture. Once finished there it may take several minutes or hours before your photo will appear in OptionsBistro.
The avatars of all contributors can be found on the right-hand column of this site. —->
By hovering over an avatar, you can see the user’s name and click through to their profile.
If you’d like to become a Member/Contributor, please let me know via email, jpayne.rdb@gmail.com
#ContangoETFs STO $NUGT Jan 2017 75 call for 7.70. GTC order in to sell the next one for 8.70.
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT June 72 call for 3.70. Highest strike. GTC order placed to sell the next one for 4.70.
#Earnings Sold to Open $DATA Feb 5th 62/100 strangles for 1.20. The largest moves over the last 12 earnings reports: Biggest UP move: 21.4% , Biggest DOWN move: -10.7% , Average move: 10.5% . These strikes are both 23.5% OTM.
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Feb 5th 1850/1825 put spreads for 1.50. After being stopped on the 1860/1835 spread yesterday, replacing with a slightly lower one. Remember we have nonfarm payrolls on Friday morning
#Earnings Two trades from yesterday worked perfectly, with BWLD and CMI both with minimal movement this morning. BTC BWLD Feb 19th 100 puts for .10. Bidding to close the 170 call for .10, and both CMI options for .02, or they’ll expire tomorrow.
..where you get stopped at the bottom when SPX is down 1.5%, then it rips back up to end positive before I could throw on any rolls. Oh well. I’m sure more chances are coming. As for the call side, just Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 1990/2015 call spreads for 1.25. #SPXcampaign
#Earnings Sold to Open $CMI Feb 5th 81.5/98 strangles for 1.05. These are the largest 1-day moves after last 12 reports: Biggest UP move: 6.8% , Biggest DOWN move: -8.7% , Average move: 4.2% . These strikes are 8.9% (puts) and 9.5% (calls) OTM.
#Earnings Sold to Open $BWLD Feb 19th 110/170 strangles for 2.40. These are the 21-day moves over the last 12 reports: Biggest UP move: 19.4% , Biggest DOWN move: -15.9% , Average move: 10.2% . These strikes are both about 21% OTM. IV should also drop by 50% tomorrow.
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Feb 12th 1800/1775 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.25 on Tuesday.
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