AutoZone’s (AZO) Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues in Line
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/autozones-azo-q1-earnings-beat-131301324.html
Author Archives: Jeff
Good morning…
Well, perhaps the $VIX warning we got Friday will come to fruition before January. More volatility today as oil continues to plunge. At some point we should reach a capitulation point where oil has a rapid, massive sell off and then finally bottoms. For now, it seems to be dragging stocks down with it.
TZA calls
#ContangoETFs STO $TZA Jan 15th 50 calls for 1.40. Every time this pops I sell some 50 calls in the next month, and every time I can cover for 80% of max profit a couple weeks later.
$SPX second test of 2067…
$SPX second test of 2067 area held for now, printing a higher low on the day.
Oil plunging…
All-time low in $USO.
KOLDer outside
#ContangoETFs New highs again… STO $KOLD Jan 15th 215 call for 7.10. Highest strike.
AZO earnings
#Earnings STO $AZO Dec 18th 700 puts for 2.95 and 800 calls for 2.30. Over last 12 earnings, (one day moves) Biggest UP move: 4.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -4.0% , Average move: 2.3% . 13-day moves: Biggest UP move: 6.5% , Biggest DOWN move: -5.4% . These strikes are 6.9% and 6.5% OTM respectively.
VLO covered put
STO $VLO Dec 31st 66 put for .85, against short stock.
SPX put spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 1910/1885 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2077. This is the first of two put spreads and two call spreads I plan to sell this week for the Jan 8th expiry.
SPX same-week condor
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 11th 2035/2015 put spreads for 1.25. Will add the call side with any move higher. Idea is to get 2.25 premium or better for the condor, with a 3.00 stop on each side, meaning max loss for the week is .75.
Good morning…
Possibly a volatile week ahead of FOMC next week. Last Thursday’s sharp, high volume decline followed by stunning reversal Friday demonstrate these are volatile markets, testing the nerves of index traders. Is this the new version of consolidation, with very wide swings? Don’t get whipsawed. Pick your entires carefully or find stocks and ETF’s that are immune to major market swings.
Today is Pearl Harbor Remembrance; a salute to our Veterans and to the Americans who fought or died, 74 years ago today.
GMCR…
Hope everyone is long and no one is short! I am neither.
#OptionsExpiration 12/4/15
$NXPI 75 puts
$SPX 2125/2145 call spreads
$SPX 2130/2155 call spreads
$UVXY 23 puts
$VLO 65 & 68.5 puts
$VLO 73 calls
Assignment:
$NXPI 85 calls, stock called away, leaving me flat in the name
Have a great weekend everyone! Thanks for everything.
Silver and Gold
#contangoetfs
STO $NUGT June 72 call for 4.10 (adding to my position, thanks @Ramie)
STO $ZSL May 40 puts for 1.30.
STO $ZSL Feb 45.5 puts for .90
Silver spiking today as well as gold, dropping ZSL to its lowest level since early November. These are now my only puts against a sizable short call position.
VIX warnings
Today’s strength seems to indicate that the immediate downside danger is over. However, since these $VIX warnings fired twice within a month, it is likely there is some pain coming. These signals often can come weeks or months before a correction. With December often being a lighter, bullish month, be careful with your January positions as I would imagine more volatility is waiting until then.
More rolling…
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 2155/2180 call spreads for 1.35. This is partial roll out of Dec 24th put spread stopped yesterday. Will add more next week.
What a difference a day makes
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.25. Second call spread for this expiry; first one was sold at Monday’s open (2175/2200).
AMBA earnings
#Earnings BTC $AMBA Dec 4th 54 puts for .15. Sold as part of iron condor yesterday for .85. Took this off near the open; now can be left to expire or taken off more cheaply.
SPX, second part of that roll
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 2175/2200 call spreads for 1.00. 1.5x position size, paired with 1890/1865 put spread below. Completes rollout of stopped Dec 31st spread.
SPX partial roll
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 1890/1865 put spreads for 1.40. This is part of an iron condor roll from the stopped 12/31 put spread from yesterday. I will look to sell a call spread as well on further strength. This is 1.5x position size, seeking at least 2.15 in premium to make up for 3.30 cost of the the stop.
Jobs…
211,000 added in November, unemployment 5.0%. Probably gives Fed go-ahead to raise in December.
Good morning…
#VIXIndicator Yesterday The $VIX indicator developed for the #SPXcampaign fired a Downside Warning. This was due to a 25% rise over Tuesday’s close, and also a 50% rise from the latest VIX low on 10/28. This happened on Nov 13th as well, but then retraced back down as $SPX rallied. These are the first times since the indicator was developed that we have traded through it in real time. In backtesting, the Warning usually was followed by a correction, but sometimes it would be several weeks later. Today, we have the jobs report which could rally the market and nullify the signal, or it could lead to further downside. Watch your stops, protect your capital, take opportunities when they appear.
UVXY close puts
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Dec 18th 20 puts for .15. Sold for .65 avg price. If this is the extent of the correction I want to be able to sell these again.
SPX put spread STOP
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 1950/1925 put spreads for 2.90.
$VIX Downside Warning enacted.
Be careful with holding spreads overnight and over weekend that are close to stops.
The non-farm payrolls in the morning could add to further volatility, or also cause a large bounce.
UVXY calls opened
#VXXGame STO $UVXY March 80 call for 4.40
STO UVXY Jan 2017 170 call for 8.75
These more than replace the ones I just closed and puts the danger comfortably farther in time and strike.
UVXY calls closed
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Dec 11th 32 calls for 3.00. Sold for .75, .85, 1.00 yesterday. Will sell longer dated much higher calls to replace these.
VIX signal fired
The $VIX surpassed 18.34, which is 25% above Tuesday’s close. This is one of two signals we need to fire a Downside Warning on the #SPXcampaign. Next signal would be 19.20.
Additionally, this is the second time we’ve had signals fire since the VIX low on 10/28. A Warning did go into effect on 11/6, but since VIX retraced significantly that warning was nullified. However, because VIX has not reached a new low, we can consider any signals now slightly more urgent.
SPX stopped
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 31st 1960/1935 put spreads for 3.30. Tried to get out at a lower price on the last bounce, but it was too minor. Will look to roll if we go lower today.
Sinking…
$VIX just peaked 2 cents shy of a downside signal, 18.34 is 25% above Tuesday’s close. $SPX hitting support level at 2050. May get a bounce here but no telling whether we go lower today or tomorrow.
VLO covered puts
#Earnings #CoveredPuts STO $VLO Dec 24th 67 covered put for .85. I am short the stock, cost basis around 67.
AMBA earnings
#Earnings This one has had a big move down, so I’m playing it safe with a condor rather than naked. Short strikes are within its historical moves, but it has only has 11 quarters since IPO and the recent move down could mean a record move.
STO $AMBA Dec 4th 52/54/66/68 iron condors for .85. Biggest UP move: 8.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -8.5% , Average move: 4.4% . Short strikes are 10% OTM.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 4th 2035/2105 put spread for 1.45. This was sold as a condor on Monday for 2.60. Calls will expire tomorrow. Decided to close early to take about 40% of profit and not have the concern from further downside, especially with jobs number tomorrow that could have any effect. I will have plenty to roll if we keep going down.
SPX Dec 31st puts
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 1915/1890 put spreads for 1.25.
This is the second put spread for the week.
If weakness continues some rolling will have to happen.
$VIX levels to watch are 18.34 and 19.20. These are the next two signal levels for a downside warning.
AVGO earnings
#Earnings BTC $AVGO Dec 4th 120 puts for .05. Sold yesterday for 1.00.
AVGO EARNINGS
Getting to this late, but this one almost never moves down on earnings. You have to go back to Dec 2010 for its only significant down move, -6.5% Last 12 reports, Biggest UP move: 14.7% , Biggest DOWN move: -0.2% , Average move: 6.2% . This trade is 9.4% OTM.
STO $AVGO Dec 4th 120 puts for 1.00.
UVXY calls
#VXXGame STO $UVXY Dec 11th 32 calls for .75, to offset 23 puts on same expiry. May add more if premium goes up. Won’t hold these if UVXY gets up toward 30; in that case I would roll into longer dated, much higher calls.
Is this down move a…
Is this down move a reaction to Fed?
SPX roll
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 1990/1965 put spreads for 2.00. This is a roll from stopped spreads on 11/6. Does not cost much in margin since I already have extra call spreads on this expiry from an earlier roll.
KOLD puts
#ContangoETFs I’m a bit stretched margin-wise to sell more calls, but puts still going for great rates, and I get margin credit for selling them.
STO $KOLD Dec 18th 128 puts for 1.90, adding to my position.
Long Term VXX longs
#VXXGame Today I STC $VXX Jan 15 2016 20 puts for 3.35. I started buying these in December 2013, and added over the last two years. My average price ended up being 2.75. The best time to have sold them was a few months ago, before the August crash, when VXX hit new lows and these options traded for over 6.00. But I held on and time decay took its toll. I haven’t had a chance to buy 2017 puts because we are overdue for a reverse split, but I will try this again when the price is right for the 20 puts on $VXX or $UVXY, either 2017 or 2018 LEAPs. I am also long the VXX March 2016 25 put, bought for 5.00, now trading for 8.60.
UVXY puts
#VXXGame Added a couple more at lows today. These are getting a bit frothy; may end up in a roll situation, but it may start getting tougher for it to go lower quickly.
Adding to positions:
STO $UVXY Dec 11th 23 put for 1.20
STO $UVXY Dec 18th 20 put for .75
Also short this week’s 23 puts.
UVXY, new low
For the first time since August 4th, $UVXY just notched a new all-time low by breaking below 24.34. Four months is quite a stretch for this dog to have another day.
$VXX is still over 15% above its August 5th all-time low of 15.48.
$SVXY has once again been the laggard, as recently discussed by @vxxkelly; at 61.00 it is 37% below its June 24th all-time high of 98.13.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 17th 1890/1865 put spreads for .20. Sold as a roll on Nov 13th for 2.00.
SPX put spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 1960/1935 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2101. This is my first put spread of the week, having missed a fill on Monday’s weakness. Action looks bullish; I believe we will grind sideways to higher into year end. I doubt we’ll get a strong push higher, but I have kept all call spreads above 2130 to be safe.
UVXY puts
RUT back down to almost…
RUT back down to almost flat on day
All cylinders
Well, I did sell a same-week condor yesterday, but missed a fill on a Dec 31st put spread… thought I’d get a chance this morning, but no beans… Indices off and running… sell some call spreads if you need them!
UVXY puts
#VXXGame STO $UVXY Dec 11th 23 puts for .65. These will replace the 23 puts I have for this Friday, which should expire. Volatility has been in consolidation with the indices, and I expect that to continue. If it doesn’t, these are easy to roll.
Short options, Margin, and retirement accounts
I got this question over the weekend:
Question:
What type of account are you trading in when you short naked? Regular margin/Portfolio margin account? Trying to find out what the more experienced folks setup when the run the types of strategies you use and not get killed on the tax side, but have all the strategies open to me unlike an IRA style acct.
Answer:
I use two different account types. My main account is an LLC account with portfolio margin… it is set up as a business partnership with family members. There are no restrictions on the types of trades. I also trade with 401K accounts… these are retirement accounts sponsored by the LLC for the members of the LLC (who are technically employees). Each member, including myself, rolled over portions of IRA accounts into these 401K’s. At Interactive Brokers, 401K accounts do not have restrictions against naked options. They are Reg-T accounts, so margin requirements for shorts are higher than portfolio margin. I typically sell naked options in my LLC account and stick to spreads in the 401K accounts (almost exclusively the #SPXcampaign, which is tailor made for retirement accounts).
For the short strategies such as #Earnings and #ContangoETFs, you will need to use spreads if you want to trade in an IRA. I usually don’t use spreads, but some other contributors on OptionsBistro do, such as @fuzzballl, who uses a mix of naked and spreads.
Let me know if I can help further!
KOLD puts
#ContangoETFs Adding puts at any opportunity (margin free due to short calls).
STO $KOLD Dec 18th 125 put for 3.00
STO $KOLD Dec 18th 128 put for 3.70
SPX iron condor bonus/roll
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 4th 2015/2035/2125/2145 iron condors for 2.60. Expiring this Friday. Slightly risky due to data coming out this week, but looking for consolidation phase to continue. Will try to be out of this before Friday’s payroll numbers.
SPX spread closed
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 11th 2175/2200 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.35 on Oct 23.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 2175/2200 call spreads for 1.50.
Good morning…
Heavy week of data and reports, including nonfarm payroll on Friday. For #SPXcampaign this week I will be selling spreads in the Dec 31st expiration.
Expirations…
#OptionsExpiration
Expiring with max profit:
$SPX 1920/1895 put spreads
$SPX 1965/1940 put spreads
$VLO 65 & 66 puts
Assignment:
$NXPI 83 & 84 covered calls, stock called away
Have a great weekend everyone!
VLO roll-o
#Rolling Still holding this short stock position, but sale of calls and puts is bringing cost basis up.
BTC $VLO Nov 27th 71 call for 1.95, rolled to Dec 4th 71.5 call for 2.06
BTC $VLO Nov 27th 72 call for .96, rolled to Dec 4th 73 call for 1.13
SPX spreads closing
#SPXcampaign – Not much movement in the index, but theta decay is moving nicely…
BTC $SPX Dec 11th 2165/2190 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Nov 10th.
BTC $SPX Dec 4th 1950/1925 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Nov 3rd.
SPX spread close
#SPXCampaign BTC $SPX Nov 30th 2145/2170 call spreads for .05. Closed for margin. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.00 on Nov 9th.
KOLD strikes added
Strikes up to 215 added to January and later. Not selling anymore today, but I will if we continue higher. Looking to load up some puts on every pullback.
SPX iron condor
#SPXcampaign Today I am looking to complete my full position for the Dec 24th expiry, which means I need a spread on each side. Starting with: STO $SPX Dec 24th 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.30.
Then, a few seconds later on a spike down: STO $SPX Dec 24th 1950/1925 put spreads for 1.40.
Done!
Happy Thanksgiving!
Have a great holiday, and thanks to everyone who has made OptionsBistro a success in its first month!
Baking vs. Trading
Slow day in the markets, so this is what I’m up to… making pumpkin pie from scratch! 
UVXY added puts
#VXXGame STO $UVXY Dec 4th 23 puts for .40, adding to the position I started yesterday.
BOIL up
#ContangoETFs STO $BOIL Jan 25 calls for 1.10.
STO $BOIL Jan 30 calls for .50
Any rally in Nat Gas is worth selling
TZA close
#ContangoETFs BTC $TZA Dec 18th 50 calls for .30. Sold for 1.55 on Nov 12th
UVXY puts
#VXXGame Followed Iceman and Kelly, STO $UVXY Dec 4th 23 puts for .40
GMEarnings done
#Earnings BTC $GME Nov 27th 34 puts for .05. Sold for .40 on Friday. Closed the calls for .01 yesterday so this completes the trade.
SPX call spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 2170/2195 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2089. I now have sold one spread in puts and one in calls for the week… need one more of each.
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Thanks! Jeff
KOLD again
It’s 39 degrees in Portland, but KOLD calls heating up again. The new higher strikes give us (hopefully) safe opportunities.
STO $KOLD Dec 200 calls for 3.10
BOIL oh BOIL
#ContangoETFs STO $BOIL Dec 18th 25 calls for .70. Flip side of $KOLD, so margin free.
SPX Dec 17th put spread
#SPXcampaign I only sold one put spread last week so this is the second half of my position for the Dec 17th expiry: STO $SPX Dec 17th 1945/1920 put spreads for 1.35. I got lucky on this one and was filled at the bottom of the day.
KOLD puts
#ContangoETFs Sold these as part of a #ReverseRoll from Friday’s calls, with intent to add more on any down days in the name. These reduce my margin to sell these, since I am heavier in calls than puts.
STO $KOLD Dec 110 puts for 2.40
STO $KOLD Dec 115 put for 3.70
SPX campaign spread
#SPXcampaign Sold $SPX Dec 24th 1935/1910 put spreads for 1.35. First spreads for this expiry… I am not waiting for a strong down move due to the short week that is likely to a quiet trickle up or sideways. Will look to sell call spread as well.
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