#Jobs — Higher than expected.
Gain of +216,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 175K
Unemployment unchanged at 3.7%
U6 unemployment 7.1%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation at 62.5%, down by 0.3
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.1% increase over the year
October jobs revised down by -45K to +105K
November jobs revised down by -26K to 173K
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 5th (next day) 4625/4645-4780/4800 condors for 1.00, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 15.5%
Today’s condor nicely centered and should expire. This new one is for tomorrow… there is the Jobs report in the morning, but I’m getting a nice width here so I’m comfortable.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 4th 4635/4655-4750/4770 condors for .95, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 12.4%
Condor from this morning expired. My error in setting up a close order led me to keep watch, and since we didn’t went lower than the morning dip (until right before the close), I rode it out to victory!
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 3rd 4670/4690-4775/4795 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 18.9%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 2nd 4680/4700-4795/4815 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 20.7%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 29th 4720/4740-4825/4845 condors for .90, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.7%
Third day out of four this week that I have doubled down, taking advantage of the typically quiet holiday week. Watching today closely in case there is any larger moves due to last-day-of-year loading or unloading.
#SPX1dte Doubling down with a second condor: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 28th 4735/4755-4820/4840 condors for .90, deltas -.09 +.05, IV 14.9%
This is 20 points higher on put side and 5 points higher on call side.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 28th 4715/4735-4815/4835 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 10.6%
Expiring: Dec 27th 4845/4825 put spreads, sold yesterday for .80
#SPX1dte Adding to condor sold on Friday: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 26th 4705/4725-4790/4810 condors for 1.15, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 15.7%. Obviously, I’m assuming a pretty quiet day.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 26th 4690/4710-4800/4820 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 6.4%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 22nd 4690/4710-4800/4820 condors for 1.25, deltas -.08 +.07, IV 21.4%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 21st 4665/4685-4775/4795 condors for 1.35, deltas -.11 +.07, IV 21%
Aggressive on downside as bounce is likely.
…what news hit?
#SPX1de Adding another tight position on this quiet week: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 20th 4730/4750-4790/4810 condors for .75. Deltas -.08 +.08
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 19th 4720/4700 put spreads for .60, delta -.10, IV 14.2%
This is a bonus spread; my condor from yesterday still on.
#SPX1dte Filled 23 seconds after closing bell: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 19th 4685/4705-4785/4805 condors for .95. I wasn’t at my screen, but I estimate deltas were -.09 +.04
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 18th 4670/4690-4760/4780 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 15.3%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 4675/4655 put spreads for .75, delta -.08, IV 21.05%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 14th 4650/4670-4765/4785 condors for .95, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 21%
#SPX1dte Unable to sell any puts as market just ran. Profit is availabe on the #RiskReversal I sold yesterday… gonna try to pick a top.
$SPX just exceeded the March 2022 high of 4637.30. Next would be the all-time high from Jan 2022 of 4818.62.
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 13th (next day) 4520/4500 put spreads
Bought to Open Dec 13th 4700/4720 call spreads
Net DEBIT .50
I will hold this until after Fed press conference tomorrow, in case ultimate market reaction is bullish
Prices across a broad range of goods and services edged higher in November as energy prices declined, providing hope that inflation could be on a lower trajectory.
The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.
While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month ago.
Excluding volatile and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates and little changed from October.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 4550/4570-4635/4655 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 16.2%
Inflation reports and Fed decision the week!
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4515/4535-4630/4660 condors for 1.00, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 21.65%
Muted reaction to Jobs number, wish I could have sold before the report but been burned too many times this year.
#Jobs — A bit more than expected. Wages increased strongly.
Gain of +199,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 185K
Unemployment down by 0.2 to 3.7%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.0%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation at 62.8%, up by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.0% increase over the year
September jobs revised down by -35K to +262K
October jobs unchanged at 150K
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 4500/4520-4590/4610 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 16.7%
Weekly jobless claims came in exactly as expected so market has no meaningful reaction. Tomorrow’s MONTHLY job number may have more impact as we have both CPI and Fed Decision coming next week.
Today’s candlestick is bearish engulfing. Similar to last Wednesday, but that time was not engulfing on the lower side like today’s.
#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 6th 4555/4535 put spreads for 1.15, delta -.17
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 5th 4610/4630 call spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.45. 4520/4500 put spreads still short. Econ data coming at 9:45 & 10 ET.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 4th 4525/4545-4620/4640 condors for 1.15, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 18%
JOBS report is Friday
#SPX1dte Sokd to Open $SPX 4515/4535-4610/4630 condors for .65, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 20.2%
Waited until Powell finished remarks and for Q&A to begin. Went with less aggressive deltas, so I have less chance of stepping in sh*t on a Friday.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th 4525/4505 put spreads for .55, delta -.09, IV 18.45%. Sold 4 minutes after jobless claims and other data released.
#SPX1dte Sold partial of $SPX Nov 29th 4590/4610 call spreads for 3.00. Bought yesterday for .30.
Overnight rally came through. Now bouncing around after GDP numbers came in a bit above estimates and some yapping from Fed members.
#SPX1dte Condor sold yesterday is doing fine so will allow to expire unless challenged
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 29th (next day) 4485/4505-4585/4605 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 10.4%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 27th 4510/4530-4585/4605 condors for 1.10, deltas -.09 +.06, IV 14.5%
#SPX1dte Not enough premium on the usual 6-delta spreads so I may not be placing a trade today. I’ll take another look after the open.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 22nd 4495/4515-4585/4605 condors for 1.00, deltas -.09 +.06, IV 17.1%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 21st 4490/4510-4590/4610 condors for .95, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 10.95%
Anyone know reason for sudden pop?
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 20th 4460/4480-4540/4560 condors for 1.40, deltas -.09 +.10, IV 16.8%
This may be narrowest condor I’ve sold in early AM and also highest deltas. The next deltas out were -.07 and only +.04. So I went more aggressive with a width of 60 rather than 70. Market is expecting a quiet holiday week.
Market closed on Thursday, and closes early on Friday (1pm ET)
#SPX1dte Going for another #RiskReversal. If it doesn’t pull through I will sell a lower call spread.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 17th 4475/4455 put spreads, delta -.08
Bought to Open Nov 17th 4565/4585 call spreads, delta +.04
Net CREDIT .10
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 16th 4440/4460-4545/4565 condors for 1.00, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 20%
#SPX1dte Super late to game but with retail sales number coming and already strong $TGT earnings, going with bullish #riskreversal…
Sold $SPX Nov 15th 4460/4440 put spreads, delta -.08
Bought 4570/4590 call spread, delta +.05
Net CREDIT .05
#SPX1dte Waiting for the open to sell. Call premiums are much higher than put premium at comparable deltas.
Inflation was flat in October from the previous month, providing a hopeful sign that stubbornly high prices are easing their grip on the U.S. economy.
The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, increased 3.2% from a year ago despite being unchanged for the month, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.1% and 3.3%.
Headline CPI had increased 0.4% in September.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/cpi-inflation-report-october-2023.html
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 13th 4345/4365-4450/4470 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 20.3%
CPI report is Tuesday morning
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 10th 4290/4310-4400/4420 condors for .90, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 21.3%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 9th 4355/4335 put spreads for .65, delta -.10, IV 20.2%
#VIXindicator Third consecutive $VIX close below the 78.6% retracement means an Upside Warning. Expect possibility of higher market in coming days or weeks.
The last time this fired was September 1st, and it was a dud; the market did not get higher at all over the 16 days until it was canceled. Here are the recent results of the UpW’s before that:
July 14, 2023: close on that day: 4,505. Subsequent high was 4,607 on July 27. 9 trading days, +2.3%
June 5, 2023: close on that day: 4,274. Subsequent high was 4,458 on June 30. 18 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 30, 2023: close on that day: 4,051. Subsequent high was 4,187 on May 1. 21 trading days, +3.4%
Nov 23, 2022: close on that day: 4,027. Subsequent high was 4195 on Feb 2. 47 trading days, +4.2%
Aug 5, 2022: close on that day: 4145. Subsequent high was 4325 on Aug 16. 7 trading days, +4.3%
Mar 29, 2022: (failed) close on that day: 4631. SPX did not go higher. UpW was canceled after 6 trading days, 0.0%
Dec 27, 2021: close on that day: 4791. Subsequent high was 4818 on Jan 4. 6 trading days, +0.6%
Oct 18, 2021: close on that day: 4486. Subsequent high was 4743 on Nov 22. 14 trading days, +5.7%
Aug 25, 2021: close on that day: 4496. Subsequent high was 4595 on Sep 2. 6 trading days, +1.1%
Aug 13, 2021: (headfake) close on that day: 4468. Subsequent high was 4480 the next day. Canceled the day after that.
May 28, 2021: close on that day: 4204. Subsequent high was 4393 on July 7. 31 trading days, +4.5%
Mar 15, 2021: close on that day: 3969. Subsequent high was 4238 on May 7. 40 trading days, +6.8%
Feb 5, 2021: close on that day: 3886. Subsequent high was 3950 on Feb 16. 6 trading days, +1.6%
Nov 11, 2020: close that day: 3585. Subsequent high was 3726 on Dec 18. 25 trading days, +3.9%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 8th 4345/4325 put sprewads for .60, delta -.08.
Futures trending upward so I will wait until after the open to sell call side.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 7th 4305/4325-4395/4415 condors for 1.30, deltas -.08 +.07, IV 19.1%
Only 70-point range and aggressive deltas to get the premium over a dollar.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 6th 4295/4315-4405/4425 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 20.9%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Nov 3rd 4290/4310-4390/4410 condors for 1.00, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 23.2%
Watching on tight leash as I’m at end of wining week.
#Jobs — A bit less than expected and a big drop from September.
Gain of +150,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 170K
Unemployment up 0.1 to 3.9%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.2%, up by 0.2
Labor force participation at 62.7%, down by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; 4.1% increase over the year
September jobs revised down by -39K to +297K
August jobs revised down by -62K to +165K
#SPX1dte Just before close yesterday I did a bullish #RiskReversal, since reaction to Fed decision was positve.
Sold to Open $SPX Nov 2nd 4175/4155 put spreads
Bought to Open Nov 2nd 4300/4320 call spreads
Net CREDIT +0.25
This morning the call spread is doing well, and I’ll wait until after open to see if we can kick higher. I will also probably roll up the put spread.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4125/4105 put spreads for .70, delta -.08 IV 25.1%
#SPX1dte BTC call side for 2.35. My error was not legging in. With pre-market up I should have only sold puts and waited for open to sell calls. This is the current reality in volatile markets. For same day trades, if pre-market is trending sell only in opposite direction and wait for open spike up or down.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 30th 4060/4080-4185/4205 condors for 1.45, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 28.8%
FOMC decision on Wednesday and Jobs Report on Friday
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 27th 4065/4085-4210/4230 condors for 1.15, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 31%
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 26th 4110/4090 put spreads for .75, delta -.06, IV 31.3%. Sold after GDP and Jobless data were released.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 25th 4160/4180-4310/4330 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 19.5%
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Oct 24th 4145/4125 put spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.20.
MACD bearish crossover in futures half-hour ago, but it may be short-lived. Call side stop has not been breached.
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 24th 4125/4145-4280/4300 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 20.3%
Options Bistro 