#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 12th 5515/5535-5635/5655 condors for .90, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 17.62%, at 8:38 ET.
A brief dip but back to centered from the PPI data release… we are flat from yesterday’s close. Two days of heavy moves followed by a quiet Friday? We shall see…
I got 100-point width even after the data release which is better than mornings have been for awhile.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 10th 5530/5550-5620/5640 condors for .90, deltas -.08 +.05, IV 12.90
#SPXah Placed tight condor centered at 5080/5085 for 13.80 last night. Was doing fine until this sudden spike that started around 7:30am ET, so I stopped out for 14.35. May look to try another one after the open.
REVISION: Powell testimony today (Tuesday) is 10am ET…. same as Wednesday.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 5500/5520-5600/5620 condors for .80, deltas -.07 +.05, IV 12.61%, at 8:18am ET
Last Night: At 12:16am ET sold to Open $SPX 5525/5555-5560/5590 condors for 14.20. Of course, in this market it is being tested to the upside, currently around 15.00. Would like to close before the open and possibly place a new one ATM.
The banks start reporting on Friday to kick off earnings season.
REVISION: Powell testimony on Tuesday is 10am ET…. same as Wednesday.
The big CPI on Thursday
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 5th 5505/5535-5540/5570 condors for 13.60, IV 15.76%
#Jobs — Gains beat expectations again, but drop in prior months
Gain of +206,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 190K
Unemployment up 0.1% to 4.1%, vs expectation of unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.4%, unchanged
Labor force participation up 0.1 to 62.6%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; +3.9% Y/Y
May jobs revised down by -54K to +218K
April jobs revised down by -57K to +108K
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 3rd 5475/5505-5510/5540 condors for 10.05, IV 11.16%
Low premium due to a short day. Overnight action was in a pretty small range. May or may not close before 9:45/10:00 data release. Market closes at 1pm ET.
#SPX0dte I placed a trade last night around my usual time when I shouldn’t have. The move from the close to 9pm PT was downward, and I want to place this trade only if that move is mostly flat. But I had been encouraged by the resilience of the premium lately so I placed it anyway.
At 12:28am ET, sold to open $SPX July 2nd 5435/5465-5470/5500 condors for 15.478
The downward move continued and premium maxed at 18.75 at around 7:53am. We bounced enough and I just closed for 15.30, so breakeven after commissions. The resilience saved me but my condor is too off-center to risk going into Powell’s speech and JOLT release. I will consider possibilities after 10am.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX July 1st 5445/5475-5480/5510 condors for 16.05, IV 13.25%, at 12:26am
Barely worth posting, but for the sake of consistency…
Actually a fair amount of data coming in the Holiday week.
What a day to skip for a neutral trader. Overnight was UP, and after a brief pullback before the open, we’re now at all-time highs again. This week’s $9+ profit made up for my past 5 losing and breakeven weeks, so I was comfortable skipping today. Fridays have been bad to me this year so happy to skip this one. Hoping for a few days of opportunities on the holiday week before next Friday’s job report.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 27th 5445/5475-5480/5510 condors for 13.559, IV 15.23%, at 8:53 ET.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 26th 5440/5470-5475/5505 condors for 14.55, IV 15.28%, at 8:12am ET
#SPX0dte Last night at 12:13am ET, sold to open $SPX Jun 25th 5425/5455-5460/5490 condors for 15.723. Didn’t get much decay overnight… price was 15.30 around 8am when structure was very close to centered ATM. But since then, it has dropped to 14.00. Considering when to exit.
This demonstrates how little decay there is overnight and that it really starts in earnest after 8am. Overnight risk may not be worth it, even if probability of stop-out is low.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 24th 5405/5425-5505/5525 condors for 1.05, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 15.65%
Lotsa stuff dropping Friday
#SPX0dte As posted below, at last night’s close I sold to open $SPX Jun 21st 5395/5415-5530/5550 condors for 1.15, IV 14.91%, deltas -.07 +.06. This morning, IV is 21.92%, and a similar delta condor is going for the same or more. The night-before entry didn’t help me. It may be the 9:45 PMI data, but traders knew that was coming yesterday too. Overnight moves were minor.
#SPXah Last night at 9:07pm PT sold to Open $SPX 5445/5475-5480/5510 condors for 18.35. At the overnight low (about 1:40am PT) it got up to 19.43. Now as we are currently rising in premarket, it is 17.70. I will close this before PMI. High to low swing overnight was over 20 points, so I’m glad to see it only got a buck in the hole. However, the IV remains high this morning so decay has been minimal.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 20th 5435/5455-5540/5560 condor for 1.05, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 16.05%
#SPX0dte #SPXah I started “#SPXah” hashtag for this. It is basically the same IB/condor trade we have been doing same-day but placed around 9pm Pacific and closed before the next day’s open. I recently discovered that SPX options can be traded from 5:15pm to 6:15am PT, whereas before I thought it was only 3a-6:15a.
(I’m usually post times in ET but using PT time here since that’s where I live)
Overnight moves CAN be large, but lately we’ve been in a period with the market making its moves during market hours and the overnight being fairly calm. I tracked the price of the condors with a 5-pt middle and 30-pt wings from 5:15pm onward. I have seen little decay in the price between 5:15 and midnight, so waiting until 9pm to enter the trade. To exit trade before 5:30am, when data releases typically happen, we can usually only expect .85 t0 1.50 in profit.
The premium does NOT move very much with minor swings. It seems we need at least a 20 point move before we hit a 2-dollar stop level. So in the first two live trades I’ve done, I entered bracket orders to take profits at 1.10 and stop-loss at 2.00. I had one loss and one win.
The chart below shows the 10 days tested, with notes. For two weeks potential profit is +3.76.
You must monitor the /ES chart for movement, but look at the $SPX option chain to determine the centered strikes, looking at the puts and calls that are each closest to .50 delta.
I’m thinking best approach is to make sure the first 4 hours (5:15-9:15pm) have no major market moves from the close. If earnings or something have caused volatility, skip the trade as it is more likely to keep moving overnight. Also, may be best to avoid large events occurring the expiry day, even though test trades on both Jobs and CPI reports worked, because the premium sold was so high that the IV drop made up for the move in the index.
Check out the chart and let me know if you have questions.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 17th 5400/5430-5435/5465 condors for 13.70, IV 15.71%
Retail Sales numbers Tuesday, market closed Wednesday, PMI reports Friday
#SPX0dte After a week of wild swings and all-time highs, I think today’s market has a chance of bouncing from this overnight dip. Going with a #riskreversal
Sold to open $SPX Jun 14th 5350/5330 put spreads, delta -.07
Bought to open Jun 14th 5450/5465 call spreads, delta +.10
Total DEBIT -.30
Not looking for an ITM expiration; just 2 to 4 dollars on the intraday high.
Later I will share a new overnight trade I’ve been testing. Of course, after 8 straight days of testing success, my first day trying it live was a loss (due to this morning’s pre-market pullback). Seems to befall me every time I first switch from test to live!
#SPX0dte Sold to Open Jun 13th 5400/5430-5435/5465 condors for 16.15, IV 18.54, at 8:49 ET
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rate.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/12/cpi-report-june-inflation.html
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 11th 5315/5345-5350/5380 condors for 14.15, IV 15.71%, at 8:26 ET
The big day is Wednesday.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5275/5295-5380/5400 condors for 1.15, IV 17.17%, deltas -.07 +.07
#Jobs — Gains blow out expectations, UE rises to highest since Jan 2022
Gain of +272,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 190K
Unemployment up 0.1% to 4.0%, vs expectation of unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.4%, unchanged
Labor force participation down 0.2 to 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%, more than expected; +4.1% Y/Y
March jobs revised down by -5K to +310K
April jobs revised down by -10K to +165K
Interesting morning with the $TICK, we opened higher and have had upside mini-spikes but TICK chart opened at and has stayed near -600. What does it meeeeaaannn?
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 6th 5320/5350-5355/5385 condors for 14.55, IV 17.81%, at 8:46 ET
At about 8:30 ET… anyone else?
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 4th 5230/5260-5265/5295 condors for 18.00, IV 21.75%, at 8:15 ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jun 3rd 5265/5295-5300/5330 condors for 14.85, IV 17.26%, at 8:28 ET
JOBS report on Friday, and other data each morning this week.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 31st 5185/5205-5305/5325 condors for 1.20, IV 21.15%, deltas -.07 +.06
Taking lower risk route of wide 6-delta condor strategy this morning. May add tight condor if consolidation takes hold.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5220/5250-5255/5285 condors for 15.0o, IV 17.04%, at 8:51 ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 29th 5245/5275-5280/5310 condors for 15.80, IV 17.88%, at 8:26 ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPPX May 28th 5280/5310-5315/5345 condors for 12.05, IV 14.55%, at 8:28 ET
GDP report Thursday; Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday
#RiskReversal At the close yesterday, I felt that we’d had an outsized intraday countertrend move that wouldn’t follow through. I think we will remain at these levels or go higher at least until June 7th, when we get next monthly jobs report, followed by both a CPI report and Fed decision the following week.
So, at the close…
Sold to Open $SPX May 29th 5160/5140 puts spreads
Bought to Open May 29th 5360/5380 call spreads
Net CREDIT +0.15
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 24th 5210/5230-5320/5340 condors for 1.10, IV 18.04%, deltas -.07, +.07
Switching to a wide condor after yesterday’s move and economic data coming today.
#SPX0dte May 23rd 5315/5345-5350/5380 condors for 15.25, IV 18.77%, at 8:46 ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5280/5310-5315/5345 condors for 12.85, IV 13.67%, at 8:24 ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 21st 5275/5305-5310/5340 condors for 12.467, IV 13.70%, at 8:26 ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 20th 5280/5310-5315/5345 condors for 11.10, IV 12.38%, at 8:28 ET
Probably the lowest IV and lowest premium I’ve sold on this trade before the open. Chain IV on SPX options this week is quite low, with a slight rise on Thursday.
FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon and a butt-load of FOMC members yapping all week.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 17th 5270/5300-5305/5335 condors for 14.15, IV 15.86%, at 8:27 ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 16th 5280/5310-5315/5345 condors for 13.35, IV 15.36%, at 8:34 ET
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 15th 5185/5205-5315/5335 condors for 1.20, IV 22.23%, deltas -.06 +.07
Inflation eased slightly in April, providing at least a bit of relief for consumers while still holding above levels that would suggest a cut in interest rates is imminent.
The consumer price index, a broad measure of how much goods and services cost at the cash register, increased 0.3% from March, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Services reported Wednesday. That was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.4%.
On a 12-month basis, however, the CPI increased 3.4%, in line with expectations.
Excluding food and energy, the key core inflation reading came in at 0.3% monthly and 3.6% on an annual basis, both as forecast.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/15/cpi-inflation-april-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-april.html
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 13th 5145/5165-5265/5285 condors for 1.15, IV 20.62%, deltas -.06 +.06
I decided to hold second half of long May 13th 5260/5280 call spreads through the PPI report. That cost me as we dropped. It’s 5 points below by condor so I will try to sell at an early peak.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 13th 5200/5230-5235/5265 condors for 12.40, IV 14.29%.
Starting with this post, I am including only the U.S. items and only “2-bull” and “3-bull” items (ignoring minor items that are rated 1-bull). This is because in recent weeks there have been several 2-bull entries that have caused sharp intraday moves. However, even 3-bull entries for other countries fail to have significant effect. So for the purposes of intraday trading decisions, I hope this is the best use of the Bloomberg website’s calendar. You can find the calendar and make your own filters here: Bloomberg Economic Calendar
Also, you can always find this post quickly by clicking on “Economic Calendar” in the menu at top of this site.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 10th 5180/5200-5265/5285 condors for 1.35, IV 15.65%, deltas -.11, +.07
This is much more aggressive than usual. My thinking is we are pretty stretched to upside and that we’ll go higher but not THIS much past all-time highs today. But if we do, my long 5160/5180 call spread for May 14th will be making up for any stop loss for today. As for downside, I don’t see a dip happening today.
I will likely take profits on HALF of the long spread today, currently +4.50 in black. Sure enough, the May 10th spread that I took 1.10 in profit on yesterday is over 4.00 this morning.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 9th 5155/5185-5190/5220 condors for 13.829, IV 16.03%, at 8:46 ET
#SPX0dte No new trade yet but I did pay to close short put side of May 10th #RiskReversal for .30. Not really threatened, but wanted to clear risk so I can enter a new one.
#VIXindicator After three consecutive $VIX closes below the 78.6 Fib retracement line, expect the likelihood of higher market over the coming days or weeks.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 7th 5150/5180-5185/5215 condors for 13.45, IV 16.23%, at 8:24 ET
#RiskReversal Taking the lowered $VIX as a sign of a move to new all-time highs. This one is tighter than I usually go on risk reversals, and I’m doing that because the vast majority of these expire worthless on both sides, but usually do result in some move toward the long side and no threat to short side.
Sold to Open May 10th 5050/5030 put spreads, delta -.10
Bought to Open May 10th 5240/5260 call spreads, delta +.07
Total CREDIT +.10
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 6th 5120/5150-5155/5185 condors for 14.40, IV 17.08%, at 8:27 ET
#VIXIndicator The $VIX closed below 14.32 on Friday, ending the Downside Warning. Closes like this on Monday and Tuesday will fire an Upside Warning.
#VIXindicator Barring an afternoon volatility spike, looks like Downside Warning will be canceled as the $VIX took a big plunge before the open on the Jobs report. This could put us in an Upside Warning as early as Tuesday’s close.
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 3rd 5030/5050-5180/5200 condors for 1.20, IV 27.50%, deltas -.07 +.05
#Jobs — Gains slowed in April, rising less than expected, which is good news for the hope of lower interest rates.
Gain of +175,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 240K
Unemployment up 0.1% to 3.9%, vs expectation of unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.4%, up by 0.1%
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%, less than expected; +3.9% Y/Y
February jobs revised down by -34K to +236K
March jobs revised up by +12K to +315K
