Econ Calendar 5/26 – 5/30

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SPX 0-dte trades for 5/23/25

Sold to Open $SPX May 23rd 5655/5675-5875/5895 condors for 1.20, IV 38.90%, deltas -.06 +.05.

Deltas wildly off before market so this was placed 12 minutes after the bell.

Paper trade: 2 minutes after bell: 5695/5715-5835/5855 for 5.40. Already about $1 in profit. The SPX spike up after placement barely affected the premium.

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/22/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 22nd 5730/5750-5920/5940 condors for 1.40, IV 31.52%, deltas -.06 +.06

Paper trade 5775/5795-5890/5910 for 5.05, deltas -.19 +.17

Bond auction action

Today another good sign to watch out for bond auctions on the calendar. Yields were already high and spiked after auction, sending indexes plunging.

SPX o-dte trades for 5/21/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 21st 5805/5825-5975/5995 condors for 1.20, IV 26.88%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/20/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 20th 5860/5880-6005/6025 condors for 1.15, IV 22.76%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/19/25

#SPX0dte Deltas are whacked on TOS as well as IB, so I’m waiting until after the open.

Earnings 5/19 – 5/23

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Econ Calendar 5/19 – 5/23

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SPX 0-dte trades for 5/16/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5825/5845-5985/6005 condors for 1.30, IV 25.55%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/15/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 15th 5775/5795-5945/5965 condors for 1.15, IV 26.18%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/14/25

#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX May 14th 5790/5810-5955/5975 condors for 1.15, IV 25.32%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/13/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 13th 5745/5765-5920/5940 condors for 1.15, IV 27.56%, deltas -.06 +.05

CPI hits 2.3%, less than expected

The consumer price index, which measures the costs for a broad range of goods and services, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.3%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The monthly reading was in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimate and a bit below the annual forecast for 2.4%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/cpi-inflation-april-2025.html

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/12/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 12th 5700/5725-5925/5950 IV 37.30%, deltas -.08 +.05

Not a lot of strikes available on the call side so had to go 25-wide.

Earnings 5/12 – 5/16

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Econ Calendar for 5/12 – 5/16

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SPX 0-dte trades for 5/9/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 9th 5570/5590-5760/5780 condors for 1.30, IV 31.14%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/8/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open 5540/5560-5755/5775 condors for 1.30, IV 37.94%, deltas -.06 +.06

Trump to announce UK trade deal at 10am, but I’m betting most of move is already in.

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/7/25

#SPX0dte I avoided the wide condor due to Fed day, but premiums have been dropping quite normally despite the 2pm announcement coming. The 6-delta condor was going for 1.65 before open and now is down to .85. Could have been a nice trade. I did make 1.50 on this tight condor:

At 9:38, sold to open 5585/5615-5620/5650 condors for 23.50, BTC for 22.00 at 10:50.

These trades have not worked well lately but they are safer when premium gets above 23.00, as 10 or 20 point moves don’t have as large of a negative effect.

SPX 0-dte trades for 6/6/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 6th 5500/5520-5680/5700 condors for 1.40, IV 32.00%, IV -.06 +.09

I think deltas are a bit off, so I centered it based on distance and premium.

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/5/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 5th 5535/5555-5730/5750 condors for 1.35, IV 33.93%, deltas -.06 +.07

Earnings 5/5 – 5/9

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Econ Calendar 5/5 – 5/9

ISM, Bond Auctions, and a Wednesday Fed decision

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SPX 0-dte trades for 5/2/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 2nd 5530/5550-5740/5760 condors for 1.15, IV 37.04%, deltas -.05 +.06

April Jobs Report

#Jobs — Exceeding expectations again

Gain of +177,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 133K
Unemployment unchanged at 4.2%, as expected
U6 unemployment 7.8%, down by 0.1%
Labor force participation up 0.1 to 62.6%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; +3.8% Y/Y

February jobs revised down by -15K to +102K
March jobs revised down by -43K to +185K

SPX 0-dte trades for 5/1/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX May 1st 5470/5490-5710/5730 condors for 1.45, IV 42.10%, deltas -.08 +.05.

I think pre-market delta readings are off. Using narrower stops than the Expected Move… will look to close close if either side exceeds the 1.45 opening premium.

SPX trades for 4/30/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 30th 5480/5510-5515/5545 condors for 19.10, IV 38.98%.

Avoided trading earlier due to market reaction of GDP data.

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/29/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 29th 5380/5400-5600/5620 condors for 1.35, IV 41.29%, deltas -.05 +.06

I waited for the open, but doing so cost me width and premium as opposed to selling about a half hour before open.

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/28/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 28th 5405/5425-5615/5635 condors for 1.40, IV 37.26%, deltas -.07 +.05

That’s the lowest chain IV for a trade I’ve seen since April 1st.

#vixindicator

Earnings 4/28 – 5/2

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Econ Calendar 4/28 – 5/2

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SPX 0-dte trades for 4/25/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 25th 5320/5420-5585/5605 condors for 1.50, IV 47.76%, deltas -.06 +.06

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/24/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 24th 5215/5245-5495/5525 condors for 1.90, IV 48.23%, deltas -.06 +.06

High premium for this condor, I will look to close both sides by midday.

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/23/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 23rd 5300/5280 puts for 1.05, delta -.10, IV is bouncing wildly around 60%

I caught this on the pullback before another spike higher (9:37a ET). On that spike higher, IV and premium started going wild… this spread got above 1.50 in that period, even though SPX is higher than when I sold it.

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/22/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 22nd 5060/5080-5315/5335 condors for 1.35, IV 47.18%, deltas -.07 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/21/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 21st 5080/5100-5350/5370 condors for 1.40, IV 50.19%, deltas -.05 +.06

Earnings 4/21 – 4/25

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Econ Calendar 4/21 – 4/25

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SPX 0-dte trades for 4/17/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 17th 5140/5160-5415/5435 condors for 1.45, IV 52.58%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/16/25

#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Apr 16th 5190/5210-5475/5495 condors for 1.25, IV 54.90%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/15/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 15th 5250/5270-5505/5525 condors for 1.50, IV 47.59%, deltas -.06 +.06

Back to normal… can’t live in fear forever.

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/14/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 14th 5280/5260 put spreads for 1.00, IV 62.68%, delta -.09

IV and EM have dropped a lot since Friday. Still too cautious to sell call side since I got crushed last Monday by a headfake, and would have been crushed again Wednesday had I been short.

Earnings 4/14 – 4/18

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Econ Calendar 4/14 – 4/18

Friday markets are closed for Good Friday

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SPX 0-dte trades for 4/10/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 10th 5100/5080 put spreads for 1.00, IV 101.07%, delta -.06

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/8/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 8th 5410/5430 call spreads for .80, IV 88.40%, delta +.06

Up 3.6%, this would require a 6% up day to be breached. Certainly not impossible in this market but I waited to make sure the rally didn’t have massive follow through. I also bought a cheap long put spread before the open, 4870/4850mfor .55. That’ll be a bust unless we get a collapse. Fingers crossed! Maybe Bill Ackerman can say something bearish today.

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/7/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 7th 4650/4675-5250/5275 condors for 1.65, IV 129.50%, deltas -.06 +.05

I was building put spreads to sell at the bottom and by the time I entered the trade we were headed back up so I missed it. Now I sold where we opened and I’m immeditaly getting crushed by a spike rally.

Earnings 4/7 – 4/11

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Econ Calendar 4/7 – 4/11

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SPX 0-dte trades for 4/4/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 4th 5010/5030-5410/5430 condors for 1.50, IV 85.13%, deltas -.06 +.07

March Jobs Report

#Jobs — More gains, UE ticks higher

Gain of +228,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 140K
Unemployment up 0.1 to 4.2%
U6 unemployment 7.9%, down by 0.1%
Labor force participation up 0.1 to 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; +3.8% Y/Y

February jobs revised down by -34K to +289K
January jobs revised down by -14K to +111K

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/3/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5320/5340-5600/5620 condors for 1.50, IV 55.26%, deltas -.06 +.05

Plenty wide but expected move +/- 65.00 at moment.

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/2/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 2nd 5480/5500-5695/5715 condors for 1.45, IV 39.14%, deltas -.05 +.06, at 9:56 ET

Wasn’t planning to trade today as the Trump presser was going to be during market, but it is now at 4pm, market close. Volume is down meaning traders are waiting. Nonetheless, another day of opening lower and bouncing higher, but I waited until at least the appearance of consolidation.

SPX 0-dte trades for 4/1/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 1st 5460/5480-5680/5700 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.04. IV is unknown as Schwab options chain not showing IV or EM on today’s options chain. I will use a stop of 2.00 in premium for each side of the condor today.

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/31/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 31st 5650/5670 call spreads for .55, IV 46.16%, delta +.06

Delta readings on put side seem off and I feel I’ll have a better chance to sell that side after the open.

“Liberation Day” on Wednesday

Not included on the Econ Calendar but perhaps the biggest market mover of the week is Trump’s plan to release a massive tariff plan on Wednesday. Keep this in momd.

Trump says reciprocal tariffs will target all countries (from CNBC.com)

Earnings 3/31 – 4/4

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Econ Calendar 3/31 – 4/4

Busy week of data

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Where next?

The $SPX low was 5504 on March 13th…. 5600 was support on both the 18th and 21st, meaning we could be bouncing here, OR on our way to test the 5500 low.

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/28/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 28th 5565/5585-5755/5775 condors for 1.45. Order on at open, filled 1 minute later… IV and delta at time of fill: 33.47%, -.07 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/27/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 26th 5605/5625-5760/5780 condors for 1.35, IV 29.26%, deltas -.06 +.06

Waited for at least the appearance of stabilization.

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/26/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 26th 5690/5710-5830/5850 condors for 1.15, IV 21.89%, deltas -.06 +.05 (same strikes as yesterday)

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/25/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 25th 5690/5710-5830/5850 condors for 1.20, IV 22.77%, deltas -.07 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/24/25

#SPX0dte Like last Monday, a noticeable drop in expected move and narrowing on delta 6 condor. But this time it’s a bigger change… down to only 155 point width. Pre-market deltas have tended to be unreliable so I’m going to wait until after the 9:45am data.

Earnings 3/24 – 3/28

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Econ Calendar 3/24 – 3/28

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SPX 0-dte trades for 3/21/25

#SPX0dte Fourteen minutes after the bell, sold to Open $SPX Mar 21st 5505/5525-5725/5745 condors for 1.50, IV 40.25%, deltas -.06 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/20/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 20th 5510/5530-5725/5745 condors for 1.50, IV 39.29%, IV -.05 +.06

Sold a minute after the bell near opening lows. The deltas shifted about 20 points downward at the open from where they had been in pre-market. But then we bounced off open lows and deltas went back to pre-market levels. Makes it a quandary whether to wait for opening volatility or to sell in relative calm of premarket.

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/19/25

#SPX0dte Given the high volatility for Fed decision I was able to get a buck for extra wide condor, rather than going for riskier 6-delta strategy, which is going for about 1.80. I’ll be comfortable with this going into the press conference provided there is no significant movement before then.

Sold to Open $SPX Mar 19th 5480/5500-5735/5755 condors for 1.00, IV 42.46%, deltas -.04 +.04

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/18/25

#SPX0dte At the open bell, sold to open $SPX Mar 18th 5550/5570-5735/5755 condors for 1.60, IV 33.78%, deltas -.07 +.05

SPX 0-dte trades for 3/17/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 17th 5515/5535-5715/5735 condors for 1.50, IV 35.81%, deltas -.06 +.06

IV and width have gotten smaller than any day of last 2 weeks.

Earnings 3/17 – 3/21

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Econ Calendar 3/17 – 3/21

Retail sales Monday, Fed decision Wednesday

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SPX 0-dte trades for 3/14/25

#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 14th 5430/5450-5665/5685 condors for 1.50, IV 41.25%, deltas -.07 +.05

Lowest chain IV of the week to start the day… I think premarket deltas a bit off and will shift toward upside at the open.