Author Archives: Jeff
Econ Calendar 4/21 – 4/25
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/17/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 17th 5140/5160-5415/5435 condors for 1.45, IV 52.58%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/16/25
#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Apr 16th 5190/5210-5475/5495 condors for 1.25, IV 54.90%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/15/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 15th 5250/5270-5505/5525 condors for 1.50, IV 47.59%, deltas -.06 +.06
Back to normal… can’t live in fear forever.
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/14/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 14th 5280/5260 put spreads for 1.00, IV 62.68%, delta -.09
IV and EM have dropped a lot since Friday. Still too cautious to sell call side since I got crushed last Monday by a headfake, and would have been crushed again Wednesday had I been short.
Earnings 4/14 – 4/18
Econ Calendar 4/14 – 4/18
Friday markets are closed for Good Friday
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/10/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 10th 5100/5080 put spreads for 1.00, IV 101.07%, delta -.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/8/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 8th 5410/5430 call spreads for .80, IV 88.40%, delta +.06
Up 3.6%, this would require a 6% up day to be breached. Certainly not impossible in this market but I waited to make sure the rally didn’t have massive follow through. I also bought a cheap long put spread before the open, 4870/4850mfor .55. That’ll be a bust unless we get a collapse. Fingers crossed! Maybe Bill Ackerman can say something bearish today.
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/7/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 7th 4650/4675-5250/5275 condors for 1.65, IV 129.50%, deltas -.06 +.05
I was building put spreads to sell at the bottom and by the time I entered the trade we were headed back up so I missed it. Now I sold where we opened and I’m immeditaly getting crushed by a spike rally.
Earnings 4/7 – 4/11
Econ Calendar 4/7 – 4/11
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/4/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 4th 5010/5030-5410/5430 condors for 1.50, IV 85.13%, deltas -.06 +.07
March Jobs Report
#Jobs — More gains, UE ticks higher
Gain of +228,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 140K
Unemployment up 0.1 to 4.2%
U6 unemployment 7.9%, down by 0.1%
Labor force participation up 0.1 to 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; +3.8% Y/Y
February jobs revised down by -34K to +289K
January jobs revised down by -14K to +111K
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/3/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5320/5340-5600/5620 condors for 1.50, IV 55.26%, deltas -.06 +.05
Plenty wide but expected move +/- 65.00 at moment.
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/2/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 2nd 5480/5500-5695/5715 condors for 1.45, IV 39.14%, deltas -.05 +.06, at 9:56 ET
Wasn’t planning to trade today as the Trump presser was going to be during market, but it is now at 4pm, market close. Volume is down meaning traders are waiting. Nonetheless, another day of opening lower and bouncing higher, but I waited until at least the appearance of consolidation.
SPX 0-dte trades for 4/1/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 1st 5460/5480-5680/5700 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.04. IV is unknown as Schwab options chain not showing IV or EM on today’s options chain. I will use a stop of 2.00 in premium for each side of the condor today.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/31/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 31st 5650/5670 call spreads for .55, IV 46.16%, delta +.06
Delta readings on put side seem off and I feel I’ll have a better chance to sell that side after the open.
“Liberation Day” on Wednesday
Not included on the Econ Calendar but perhaps the biggest market mover of the week is Trump’s plan to release a massive tariff plan on Wednesday. Keep this in momd.
Trump says reciprocal tariffs will target all countries (from CNBC.com)
Earnings 3/31 – 4/4
Econ Calendar 3/31 – 4/4
Busy week of data
Where next?
The $SPX low was 5504 on March 13th…. 5600 was support on both the 18th and 21st, meaning we could be bouncing here, OR on our way to test the 5500 low.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/28/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 28th 5565/5585-5755/5775 condors for 1.45. Order on at open, filled 1 minute later… IV and delta at time of fill: 33.47%, -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/27/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 26th 5605/5625-5760/5780 condors for 1.35, IV 29.26%, deltas -.06 +.06
Waited for at least the appearance of stabilization.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/26/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 26th 5690/5710-5830/5850 condors for 1.15, IV 21.89%, deltas -.06 +.05 (same strikes as yesterday)
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/25/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 25th 5690/5710-5830/5850 condors for 1.20, IV 22.77%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/24/25
#SPX0dte Like last Monday, a noticeable drop in expected move and narrowing on delta 6 condor. But this time it’s a bigger change… down to only 155 point width. Pre-market deltas have tended to be unreliable so I’m going to wait until after the 9:45am data.
Earnings 3/24 – 3/28
Econ Calendar 3/24 – 3/28
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/21/25
#SPX0dte Fourteen minutes after the bell, sold to Open $SPX Mar 21st 5505/5525-5725/5745 condors for 1.50, IV 40.25%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/20/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 20th 5510/5530-5725/5745 condors for 1.50, IV 39.29%, IV -.05 +.06
Sold a minute after the bell near opening lows. The deltas shifted about 20 points downward at the open from where they had been in pre-market. But then we bounced off open lows and deltas went back to pre-market levels. Makes it a quandary whether to wait for opening volatility or to sell in relative calm of premarket.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/19/25
#SPX0dte Given the high volatility for Fed decision I was able to get a buck for extra wide condor, rather than going for riskier 6-delta strategy, which is going for about 1.80. I’ll be comfortable with this going into the press conference provided there is no significant movement before then.
Sold to Open $SPX Mar 19th 5480/5500-5735/5755 condors for 1.00, IV 42.46%, deltas -.04 +.04
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/18/25
#SPX0dte At the open bell, sold to open $SPX Mar 18th 5550/5570-5735/5755 condors for 1.60, IV 33.78%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/17/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 17th 5515/5535-5715/5735 condors for 1.50, IV 35.81%, deltas -.06 +.06
IV and width have gotten smaller than any day of last 2 weeks.
Earnings 3/17 – 3/21
Econ Calendar 3/17 – 3/21
Retail sales Monday, Fed decision Wednesday
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/14/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 14th 5430/5450-5665/5685 condors for 1.50, IV 41.25%, deltas -.07 +.05
Lowest chain IV of the week to start the day… I think premarket deltas a bit off and will shift toward upside at the open.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/13/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 13th 5455/5475-5690/5710 condors for 1.60, IV 43.46%, deltas -.05 +.07
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/12/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 12th 5475/5495-5745/5765 condors for 1.50, IV 49.55%, deltas -.05 +.07
Orders in to close puts for .35 and calls for .15
Inflation hits 2.8% in February, less than expected
CPI ticked up a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 0.3% increases on both headline and core, with respective annual rates of 2.9% and 3.2%, meaning that all of the rates were 0.1 percentage point less than expected.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2025.html
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/11/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 11th 5440/5460-5725/5745 condors for 1.80, IV 55.01%, deltas -.06 +.06
Orders in to close put side for 40 and call side for 20
Testing testing 1, 2, 3…
$SPX testing a prior resistance level as support today… we peaked at the 5651 area last July and August.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/10/25
#SPX0dte #riskreversal
Sold $SPX Mar 10th 5810/5830 call spreads, delta +.06
Bought SPX Mar 10th 5565/5545 put spreads, delta -.05
Net CREDIT +.20
Earnings 3/10 – 3/14
Econ Calendar 3/10 – 3/14
After Monday a busy week with JOLT, CPI, PPI, and Michigan data
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/7/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 7th 5565/5585-5860/5880 condors for 1.85, IV 55.52%, deltas -.06 +.06
Very wide condor after two days where the swings were dramatic but not breaching 6-delta stop points. I know more data and Powell/Trump speeches coming this afternoon. I will endeavor to close both sides before close.
February Jobs Report
#Jobs — Slightly less than expected; UE a bit higher
Gain of +151,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 170K
Unemployment up 0.1 to 4.1%
U6 unemployment 8.0%, up by 0.5%
Labor force participation down 0.2 to 62.4%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%, as expected; +4.0% Y/Y
December jobs revised up by +16K to +323K
January jobs revised down by +18K to +125K
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/6/25
#SPX0dte Third day trying bearish #RiskReversal. 1st day was small win, 2nd was smaller loss. Looking for a medium size profit here, not waiting for ITM puts
Sold $SPX Mar 6th 5875/5895 calls, delta +.06
Bought SPX Mar 6th 5650/5630 puts, delta -.08
IV 48.71%
Net DEBIT -.20
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/5/25
#SPX0dte Another #RiskReversal for downside fun…
Sold to Open $SPX Mar 5 5890/5910 call spreads, delta +.07
Bought to open SPX Mar 5th 5640/5620 put spreads, delta -.06
IV 51.87%
Net CREDIT +.40
Won’t hold this for too long, looking for a move in first 30 minutes or I’ll bail.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/4/25
#SPX0dte Entered a #RiskReversal for further downside.
Sold $SPX Mar 4th 5900/5920 call spreads. delta +.06
Bought SPX Mar 4th 5690/5670 put spreads. delta -.10
IV 48.97%
Net CREDIT +.30.
Not normal to get a credit when deltas favor the long side, but I will take it.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/3/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 3rd 5845/5865-6040/6060 condors for 1.30, IV 30.13%, deltas -.06 +.05
Earnings 3/3 – 3/7
Econ Calendar 3/3 – 3/7
Some PMI and then Jobs Friday
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/26/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 26th 5870/5890-6030/6060 condors for 1.20, IV 27.17%, deltas -.06 +.06
Waited until 15 minutes after open to place trade. First day in 6 that we haven’t seen a sharp move occur before this time. It may be quieter today as traders await $NVDA earnings after the bell.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/25/25
#SPX0dte Entered a risky risk-reversal on this last bounce.
Sold to Open $SPX Feb 25th 5980/6000 call spreads
Bought to Open Feb 25th 5890/5875 put spreads
Total CREDIT +.50.
After entering I went in the hole a dollar, but then the next drop started. Looking to hold the long puts for a big drop, preferably below 5900.
VIX indicator semi-retirement
#VIXindicator I created this in 2015 after having a bad day of losses. I wanted to find a warning that would fire at least a few days in advance to warn us to watch our step when playing the market neutrally. I used data from 2000 to 2015, and the signal did work pretty decently for about 4 years. But since the pandemic it has not been very helpful. It has lagged the market worse and worse each year and now seems to fire too late almost every time. I will keep the right-hand sidebar widget updated (this the “semi” before retirement) but won’t refer to it in the top widget or in separate posts. Feel free to ask any questions!
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/24/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 24th 5935/5955-6090/6110 condors for 1.30, IV 23.24%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 2/24 – 2/28
Econ Calendar 2/24 – 2/28
Like last week, pretty quiet until Thursday and Friday.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/21/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 21st 6040/6060-6165/6185 condors for .95, IV 18.14%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/20/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 20th 6060/6080-6165/6185 condors for 1.05, IV 15.80%, deltas -.07 +.07
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/19/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 19th 6040/6060-6155/6175 condors for 1.05, IV 16.89%, deltas -.06 +.08
Pushing it on the call side a bit to get premium over a dollar. The market just has not been testing the upside dramatically during trading hours.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/18/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 18th 6050/6070-6170/6190 condors for 1.05, IV 15.96%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 2/17 – 2/21
Econ Calendar 2/17 – 2/21
Quiet holiday week, with some activity Thursday and Friday.
The Hall of Revolving Presidents
Back by popular demand, in observance of Presidents’ Day (and trading holiday) on Monday, it’s the Hall of Revolving Presidents. Click “Home/Refresh” or refresh your browser to change the featured President.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 14th 6025/6045-6160/6180 condors for 1.05, IV 19.43% deltas -.06 +.06
CALENDAR alert: Tariff announcement
Trump has a press conference scheduled at 1pm ET regarding tariffs. Could be a market mover.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/13/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5960/5980-6105/6125 condors for 1.20, IV 21.87%, -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades (or not) for 2/12/25
#SPX0dte Modeled some 6-delta condors 30 minutes before the open but shied away due to high volatility. Turns out they would have been perfect, with premium already halved 45 minutes later. May stay on sidelines or look for something after Powell testimony gets underway.
CPI up 0.5% in Jan, higher than expected
Monthly 0.5%; Annual rate at 3%. They were higher than the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.3% and 2.9%. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/cpi-january-2025.html
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/11/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 11th 5960/5980-6095/6115 condors for 1.30, IV 21.01%, deltas -.06 +.08
Could be a volatile day if the market decides to over-react to whatever Powell says on the Hill.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/10/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 10th 5970/5990-6095/6115 condors for 1.50, IV 20.59%, deltas -.06 +.08
Earnings 2/10 – 2/14
Options Bistro 