#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 13th 5455/5475-5690/5710 condors for 1.60, IV 43.46%, deltas -.05 +.07
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/12/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 12th 5475/5495-5745/5765 condors for 1.50, IV 49.55%, deltas -.05 +.07
Orders in to close puts for .35 and calls for .15
Inflation hits 2.8% in February, less than expected
CPI ticked up a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 0.3% increases on both headline and core, with respective annual rates of 2.9% and 3.2%, meaning that all of the rates were 0.1 percentage point less than expected.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/cpi-inflation-report-february-2025.html
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/11/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 11th 5440/5460-5725/5745 condors for 1.80, IV 55.01%, deltas -.06 +.06
Orders in to close put side for 40 and call side for 20
Testing testing 1, 2, 3…
$SPX testing a prior resistance level as support today… we peaked at the 5651 area last July and August.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/10/25
#SPX0dte #riskreversal
Sold $SPX Mar 10th 5810/5830 call spreads, delta +.06
Bought SPX Mar 10th 5565/5545 put spreads, delta -.05
Net CREDIT +.20
Earnings 3/10 – 3/14
Econ Calendar 3/10 – 3/14
After Monday a busy week with JOLT, CPI, PPI, and Michigan data
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/7/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 7th 5565/5585-5860/5880 condors for 1.85, IV 55.52%, deltas -.06 +.06
Very wide condor after two days where the swings were dramatic but not breaching 6-delta stop points. I know more data and Powell/Trump speeches coming this afternoon. I will endeavor to close both sides before close.
February Jobs Report
#Jobs — Slightly less than expected; UE a bit higher
Gain of +151,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 170K
Unemployment up 0.1 to 4.1%
U6 unemployment 8.0%, up by 0.5%
Labor force participation down 0.2 to 62.4%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%, as expected; +4.0% Y/Y
December jobs revised up by +16K to +323K
January jobs revised down by +18K to +125K
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/6/25
#SPX0dte Third day trying bearish #RiskReversal. 1st day was small win, 2nd was smaller loss. Looking for a medium size profit here, not waiting for ITM puts
Sold $SPX Mar 6th 5875/5895 calls, delta +.06
Bought SPX Mar 6th 5650/5630 puts, delta -.08
IV 48.71%
Net DEBIT -.20
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/5/25
#SPX0dte Another #RiskReversal for downside fun…
Sold to Open $SPX Mar 5 5890/5910 call spreads, delta +.07
Bought to open SPX Mar 5th 5640/5620 put spreads, delta -.06
IV 51.87%
Net CREDIT +.40
Won’t hold this for too long, looking for a move in first 30 minutes or I’ll bail.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/4/25
#SPX0dte Entered a #RiskReversal for further downside.
Sold $SPX Mar 4th 5900/5920 call spreads. delta +.06
Bought SPX Mar 4th 5690/5670 put spreads. delta -.10
IV 48.97%
Net CREDIT +.30.
Not normal to get a credit when deltas favor the long side, but I will take it.
SPX 0-dte trades for 3/3/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 3rd 5845/5865-6040/6060 condors for 1.30, IV 30.13%, deltas -.06 +.05
Earnings 3/3 – 3/7
Econ Calendar 3/3 – 3/7
Some PMI and then Jobs Friday
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/26/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 26th 5870/5890-6030/6060 condors for 1.20, IV 27.17%, deltas -.06 +.06
Waited until 15 minutes after open to place trade. First day in 6 that we haven’t seen a sharp move occur before this time. It may be quieter today as traders await $NVDA earnings after the bell.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/25/25
#SPX0dte Entered a risky risk-reversal on this last bounce.
Sold to Open $SPX Feb 25th 5980/6000 call spreads
Bought to Open Feb 25th 5890/5875 put spreads
Total CREDIT +.50.
After entering I went in the hole a dollar, but then the next drop started. Looking to hold the long puts for a big drop, preferably below 5900.
VIX indicator semi-retirement
#VIXindicator I created this in 2015 after having a bad day of losses. I wanted to find a warning that would fire at least a few days in advance to warn us to watch our step when playing the market neutrally. I used data from 2000 to 2015, and the signal did work pretty decently for about 4 years. But since the pandemic it has not been very helpful. It has lagged the market worse and worse each year and now seems to fire too late almost every time. I will keep the right-hand sidebar widget updated (this the “semi” before retirement) but won’t refer to it in the top widget or in separate posts. Feel free to ask any questions!
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/24/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 24th 5935/5955-6090/6110 condors for 1.30, IV 23.24%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 2/24 – 2/28
Econ Calendar 2/24 – 2/28
Like last week, pretty quiet until Thursday and Friday.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/21/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 21st 6040/6060-6165/6185 condors for .95, IV 18.14%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/20/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 20th 6060/6080-6165/6185 condors for 1.05, IV 15.80%, deltas -.07 +.07
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/19/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 19th 6040/6060-6155/6175 condors for 1.05, IV 16.89%, deltas -.06 +.08
Pushing it on the call side a bit to get premium over a dollar. The market just has not been testing the upside dramatically during trading hours.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/18/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 18th 6050/6070-6170/6190 condors for 1.05, IV 15.96%, deltas -.06 +.06
Earnings 2/17 – 2/21
Econ Calendar 2/17 – 2/21
Quiet holiday week, with some activity Thursday and Friday.
The Hall of Revolving Presidents
Back by popular demand, in observance of Presidents’ Day (and trading holiday) on Monday, it’s the Hall of Revolving Presidents. Click “Home/Refresh” or refresh your browser to change the featured President.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 14th 6025/6045-6160/6180 condors for 1.05, IV 19.43% deltas -.06 +.06
CALENDAR alert: Tariff announcement
Trump has a press conference scheduled at 1pm ET regarding tariffs. Could be a market mover.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/13/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5960/5980-6105/6125 condors for 1.20, IV 21.87%, -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades (or not) for 2/12/25
#SPX0dte Modeled some 6-delta condors 30 minutes before the open but shied away due to high volatility. Turns out they would have been perfect, with premium already halved 45 minutes later. May stay on sidelines or look for something after Powell testimony gets underway.
CPI up 0.5% in Jan, higher than expected
Monthly 0.5%; Annual rate at 3%. They were higher than the respective Dow Jones estimates for 0.3% and 2.9%. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/12/cpi-january-2025.html
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/11/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 11th 5960/5980-6095/6115 condors for 1.30, IV 21.01%, deltas -.06 +.08
Could be a volatile day if the market decides to over-react to whatever Powell says on the Hill.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/10/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 10th 5970/5990-6095/6115 condors for 1.50, IV 20.59%, deltas -.06 +.08
Earnings 2/10 – 2/14
Econ Calendar 2/10 – 2/14
Quiet Monday followed by two days of Powell testimony before Congress, and CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday, Retail Sales Friday
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/7/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5995/6015-6135/6155 condors for 1.20, IV 21.88%, deltas -.06 +.06
January Jobs Report
#Jobs — Less than expected; wage growth hotter than expected
Gain of +143,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 169K
Unemployment down 0.1 to 4.0%
U6 unemployment 7.5%, unchanged
Labor force participation up 0.1 to 62.6%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.5%, vs expected +0.3%; +4.1% Y/Y
December jobs revised up by +51K to +307K
November jobs revised up by +49K to +261K
SPX 0-dte tradex for 2/6/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 6th 5985/6005-6115/6135 condors for 1.40, IV 19.62%, deltas -.06 +.07
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/5/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 5th 5935/5955-6080/6100 condors for 1.15, IV 23.22%, deltas -.07 +.05
Waited until last minute of premarket trading since we are trending up.
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/4/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 4th 5890/5910-6070/6090 condors for 1.40, IV 29.04%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 2/3/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 3rd 5845/5865-6065/6085 condord for 1.35, IV 33.33%, deltas -.06 +.05
Earnings 2/3 – 2/7
GOOG, CMG, DIS, AMZN
Econ Calendar 2/3 – 2/7
Another busy week including Jobs report on Friday
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/31/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 31st 6005/6025-6150/6170 call spreads for 1.10, IV 22.12%, -.08 +.04
Pre-market deltas seem a bit skewed, plus overnight skew was bullish. Possible we hit new all time highs today, but I think it’s more likely we get a day of chop.
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/30/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 30th 5960/5980-6110/6130 condors for 1.30, IV 22.97%, deltas -.06 +.06
I’ve seen the advantage of waiting for the open wane in recent weeks… as long as overnight action and reaction to premarket data are both mild, I think selling before open is advantageous. However, you need to watch for bad delta skews in pre-market and make sure you are centered well for projected open price of SPX.
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/29/25
#SPX0dte Taking my shot before the presser starts: Sold to Open $SPX Jan 29th 5920/5940-6085/6105 condors for 1.15, IV 50.19%, deltas -.06 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/28/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 28th 5925/5945-6085/6105 condors for 1.15, IV 26.15%, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/27/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5875/5895-6065/6085 condors for 1.20, IV 30.97%, deltas -.06 +.07
Another Upside Warning obliterated
#VIXindicator Clearly there’s a new standard of $VIX behavior that is rendering these signals meaningless.
Earnings 1/27 – 1/31
The BIG week
Econ Calendar 1/27 – 1/31
Lots of data this week including Fed decision on Wednesday.
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/24/25
#SPX0dte On the bell, sold to Open $SPX Jan 24th 6040/6060-6155/6175 condors for 1.05, IV 17.46%, deltas -.07 +.07
NOT a good fill on this. I put the order in before the open and got no fill until the bell, when I could have gotten at least 20 cents more. I waited for the open every day this week and always ended up chasing up for premium… this time I could have gotten a heartier fill.
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/23/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 23rd 6010/6030-6115/6135 condors for 1.145, IV 16.99%, deltas -.08 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/22/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 22nd 6005/6025-6115/6135 condors for .95, IV 17.08%, deltas -.06 +.06
What a difference a day makes… massive drop in volatility and premium in the options after weeks of 120-200 point wide 6-delta condors for 1.20-1.50. Today we dropped back to sub 100 pt spread and sub 1.00. Upside Warning likely coming, but as usual it’s lagging.
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/21/25
#SPX0-dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 21st 5930/5950-6080/6100 condors for 0.977, IV 23.13%, deltas -.05 +.06
Earnings 1/20 -1/24
Econ Calendar 1/20 – 1/24
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/17/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 17th 5895/5915-6040/6060 condors for 1.05, IV 23.41, deltas -.06 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/16/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 16th 5860/5880-6015/6035 condors for 1.35, deltas -.05 +.07, at the beel when order was filled. IV around 25%…. TOS option chain was showing incorrect IV/EM data, but just corrected a couple minutes after the open.
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/15/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 16th 5815/5835-5985/6005 condors for 1.25, IV 30.45%, deltas -.05 +.06
Core CPI 3.2% in December, less than expected
The consumer price index increased 0.4% on the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.3% and 2.9%.
However, excluding food and energy, the core CPI annual rate was 3.2%, a notch down from the month before and slightly better than the 3.3% forecast. The core measure rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, also 0.1 percentage point less than expected.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/15/cpi-inflation-december-2024-.html
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/14/25
#SPX0dte Sold To Open $SPX Jan 14th 5755/5775-5925/5945 condors for 1.40, IV 30.87%, deltas -.07 +.05
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/13/25
#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Jan 13th 5670/5690-5860/5880 condors for 1.25, IV 32.79%, deltas -.06 +.05
Earnings 1/13 – 1/17
Banks kick off earnings season
Econ Calendar 1/13 – 1/17
CPI report on Wednesday
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/10/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 10th 5750/5770-5950/5970 condors for 1.40, IV 34.89%, deltas -.06 +.06
December Jobs Report
#Jobs — 100K higher than expected; wage growth slowing
Gain of +256,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 155K
Unemployment down 0.1 to 4.1%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.5%, lowest since June
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%; +3.9% Y/Y, both below expectations
October jobs revised up by +7K to +43K
November jobs revised down by +15K to +212K
Interactive Brokers cuts off options trades
Just got off phone with them… they stopped allowing opening new positions for options expiring on 8th and 9th. It was a result of the confusion they had in having to move all Jan 9th options to expire on the 8th, given that the 9th will be closed. They closed trading earlier, around 11 or 12 ET. No advance warning. Pretty lame.
So I’m done for today, I guess.
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/8/25
#SPX0dte Sold to open $SPX Jan 8th 5790/5810-5980/6000 condors for 1.45, delta 31.80%, deltas -.07 +.06
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/7/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 7th 5905/5925-6045/6065 condors for 1.20, IV 22.10%, deltas -.05 +.08
SPX 0-dte trades for 1/6/25
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Jan 6th 5900/5920-6040/6060 condors for 1.15, deltas -.07 +.05
Earnings 1/6 – 1/10
Options Bistro 