I think we get a bounce next week but it is a chance to sell. If the 10 year can hold at 3% or lower the market can stabilize but if the FED raises rates and the ten year goes higher in yield, this market is done. If the DOW, S&P, and QQQ close below the 200 day MA, it will not be pretty.

It depends on your time zone. Nothing new, just more option assignments on SVXY today. I have small amounts in Feb., Mar., and April, and then nothing until January.

It has been a hell of a week and my mark to market has taken a big hit like many of you as well. But we will make it all back. No expirations today.

BTC March 16, 50 put at .10 cents, sold at 1.20 on 1 contract.

BTC January 2019, 265 call @ .01, sold at 6.70

This is my only winner against a lot of puts that are under water. I am not sure what my average cost will be when I am assigned all of my puts.

BTC March 16, 50 put @ .10 cents, sold at 1.65 on 1 contract. The road back is one contact at a time.

I got a bunch more assignments this morning on SVXY, and more to come.

STO 2020, 10 calls

BTC 2020,10 puts

STC 2020, 5 puts

BTC February 16, 20 calls, all for a debit of 4.80, bought yesterday for a debit of 3.703

I was thinking that I have more than enough exposure to this ETF so closed it out for a profit. I am only looking at Fuzzy trades from now on to eternity.

BTO 115 calls, 2020

STO 115 puts, 2020

BTO 110 puts, 2020

STO February 16, 125 calls for a total debit of 15.60

We are still in backwardation on the VIX so there will not be much of a recovery on the SVXY.

The assignments are happening.

Assigned on February 16, 70 and 75 puts. I woud prefer to get all of them assigned so I can sell covered calls.

BTO 2020, 10 calls @ 6.60

STO 2020 10 puts @ 4.30

BTO 2020 5 puts @ 1.38

STO Feb. 16, 20 calls @ .18

I hope they stay in Business.

The question that I have is, will the fund be in business?

BETHESDA, Md.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– ProShares, a premier provider of ETFs, announced today the performance on Monday of the ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(SVXY) was consistent with its objective and reflected the changes in the level of its underlying index. We expect the fund to be open for trading today and we intend to continue to manage the fund as usual.

About ProShares

ProShares has been at the forefront of the ETF revolution since 2006. ProShares now offers one of the largest lineups of ETFs, with more than $29 billion in assets. The company is the leader in strategies such as dividend growth, alternative and geared (leveraged and inverse). ProShares continues to innovate with products that provide strategic and tactical opportunities for investors to manage risk and enhance returns.

View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180206005856/en/

Source: ProShares

See you in the morning.

We are in backwardation by 3.75 points in the front month. I would expect that there were more margin calls on the futures today.  The SVXY is diving right now. Only 22 more points to go to get to my level.

I guess the 50day MA did not mean much in the way of support. The 200 day MA is a long way down from here. Scary.

Another 40 more points on the downside and I back up the truck.

Anyone know where the T2108 is right now?

STO September 50 puts @ 1.50

The SVXY breaks below 100. That is a nice start for the day.

I did some quick calculations of previous drops in the SVXY and this is my summary: Based on this, I think we have a lot more to go. My target is 60 to 70 on the SVXY, but I don’t know when we will get there.

9/14/2014 to 10/17/2014, 27% correction

8/14/2015 to 9/04/2015 , 57% correction

10/23/2015 to 2/12/2016, 53% correction

1/12/20108 to 2/02/2018, 25% correction so far

I have no expirations today.

Congratulations, your downside warning work really well this week.

Does anyone know where it is trading today?

STO March 23, 80 put @ 4.05 on 1 contract.

STO March 23, 75 put @ 2.50 on 1 contract
STO March 23, 70 put @ 2.05 on 1 contract
STO February 23, 75 puts @ .95
STO February 23, 80 put @ 1.40 on 1 contract
STO March 2, 70 put @ 1.05
Let the margin calls go out!

We have slipped into backwardation and it will get interesting I think. I have been wrong before though.

The 10 year is at 2.82 and going to 3%.

The market is cracking .

I see the yield is creeping up to 2.77% which is a quick move from 2.60% and that is making me nervous about this market.

In my IRA, I just covered my SVXY 37.5 puts for January 2019,  for 3.50, sold at 7.00, to free up some cash and sell a higher strike for more premium. Not sure when I will sell.

The ten year treasury is still going up in yield and this bothers me. If it gets to 3% it will not be good for the stock market. I think it is going to get there and after that, I am not sure.

Earnings are on February 1, tomorrow.

For March 9 expiration

BTO 207.5 call

STO 207.5 put

BTO 205 put as insurance. Total cost of 8.50 plus the 2.50 spread.

STO February 20, bull put spread, 2600/2700 @ 3.90,a small trade.

STO January 2019 45 puts @5.93, a 13.17% return if it expires at zero but, I would be happy to be assigned at that price.

STO Feb 9, 85 puts @.75

STO March 2, 75 puts @1.30

STO Feb. 16, 85 puts @1.25

STO Feb. 23, 85 put @ 1.70

March 2, 85 put @ 2.50

March 9, 85 put @ 3.10

March 16, 85 put @ 3.70

March 9, 75 puts @ 2.05

Another down day at the opening. Yea!

In a small IRA that I manage, I STO January 2019 60 puts @ 9.60

STO February 16, 80 puts @.60, putting my toe in the water at the 80 level.

STO March 16, 80 put @ 2.05

STO June 15, 80 put @ 7.05
STO March 2, 80 put @ 1.10

STO April 20, 80 put @ 4.05 on 1 contract.

STO March 9, 80 put @ 1.60 on 1 contract.

BTO January 2020 fuzzy for 15.80 debit. If interest rates are going up, CME should benefit a lot.

BTO 155 calls

STO 155 puts

BTO 150 puts as insurance

STO April 20, 75 put @ 2.83

STO January 2019, 90 puts @2.05, I am shocked that there is gambling going on in Vegas.

The 10 year treasury is above 2.70%

Something about this market does not smell right. Look at the SVXY and even though the market goes higher, this is going down. The RSI is below 50 and the volume on the down days is quite high.

SVXY60 puts
SVXY 65 puts
SVXY 70 puts
SVXY75 puts

STO February 16, 134 calls against my long position of 2020 130 calls.

STO January 2019,265 covered calls @6.70

STO June 70 put at 4.70 on 1 contract. Just testing the water.

The 10 year treasury note is now at 2.66% and the SVXY continues to see selling even though we are still in contango. I think that some institution is taking profits and getting ready for a correction.  I have a large position in the puts of the SVXY from 40 to 60 and don’t intend to add to it until we get a correction. I would also not mind being assigned at those levels and sit on the position for the next 10 years.

The stock is making new highs and I decided to roll my Feb. 2nd. 267.5 call to Feb. 9, 270 calls for a credit of .15 cents. I just rolled these yesterday. I would be better off not selling the nearby calls.

BTO April 200 calls and also bought  April 195 puts @22.40 on 2 contracts. It is breaking to a new high.

Someone is putting a lot of pressure on this ETF. I get the feeling that someone is taking a big profit. Also, watch the 10 year. It is creeping up very slowly.

I go to the gym for the spin class and come back to this. What have you done? While I was gone I rolled my GS January 265 calls out to Feb. 2, 267.5 calls for a credit of .40 cents

BTC February 16, 135 puts @.05, sold @ 1.15

In my IRA, sold to open January 2019, 60 puts @8.90

BTC 2 months early, March 27.5 puts @.05, sold @ .60

STO June 75 put at 5.45 on 1 contract.

Watch that ten year t-bond

In the IRA: SVXY
25 puts, 27.5 puts, 30 puts, 40 puts

In the trading account:
CELG, 115 covered calls
CELG ,100 puts
HRL, 35 covered calls
QCOM, 60 covered calls will be assigned
LRCX 160 put
SJM 95 puts
WDAY, 90 put
SVXY, 37.5 calls, 90 calls, 92.5 calls, 95 calls, all are covered
SVXY, puts, 22.5 p, 25p,27.5p, 30p, 35p, 37.5p, 40p, 42.5p, 45p, 47.5p, 50p, 60p, 65p, 66p, 70p, 75p

STO February 16, 115 covered calls @ .78

I am off to the gym.

We have broken above the 2.60 level on the TNX but, I want to see if we stay above that level or this is a false start. If we stay above 2.60, the next resistance is 3%. Not good for stocks if it breaks 3%. If we go into backwardation on the SVXY, we could see a big move because I think there are a lot of shorts in the futures contracts and when it turns, there is no liquidity.

It seems strange that the market is up and the vix is also up. There seems like there is a lot of volume in the SVXY again.

The market is up again which is fine with me. I have a large expiration on Friday. I don’t believe we can go another year without a correction.

Someone is leaning on the SVXY. The volume is 3 times the 10 day volume and almost twice the 90 day volume. Time to be careful.

Only 4 expirations today. I wonder if the big boys are waiting for after the nest expiration to try and sell this market.

SVXY: 60 puts,65 puts,70 puts, and 75 puts.

BTC March 35 puts @.05, 2 months early, sold @ 1.40 when the credit unions tanked.

BTC January 19, 45 puts @.01, sold @ .95