#SPXcampaign. I have now been stopped on all put spreads. I Reverse rolled one into calls on Friday, but otherwise have made no other rolls.The strategy is not viable in this environment, with 4 Downside Warnings in effect. Selling calls spreads when down so much is also not viable. Fed decision could cause a massive rally.
$SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 8th 1890/1865 put spreads for 3.45. Sold for 1.40 on Dec 4th as a roll. 3.50 was my stop.
I am currently not entering any new positions on SPXcampaign… waiting for volatility to either kick really high, or head back toward lows. Currently to volatile for this strategy.
BTC $SPX Dec 17th 2125/2150 for .20. Sold for 1.20 on Thursday. Keeping out of the way of a possible bear market rally on monthly expiration with Friday AM settlement.
Once initial warnings fire, secondary signals are less significant, but still signal likelihood of a correction. Friday saw a signal and we just touched above 25.60, which is 100% higher than the Oct 28 $VIX low. So that’s the fourth warning since Nov 13th.
I will be picking any entries sparingly and carefully before the FOMC decision. The downside risk is evident, but whichever decision they announce on Wednesday could send markets screaming higher, at least briefly. As for the #SPXcampaign, I was stopped out of put spreads and closed several call spreads Friday, and for now will be easing off on the normal weekly entries in the face of unpredictable volatility.
#SPXcampaign, in the last hour of the session, BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2155/2180 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 last Friday as a roll.
Expired worthless, full credit:
$SPX 2005/1995 BuPS. Sold for .50 on 12/7,
Next week should be interesting, to say the least!
These expired worthless, full credit:
$DUST 30 call
$UVXY 23 puts
$VLO 74 call
$SPX 2085/2110 call spreads
$SPX 2130/2155 call spreads
Assignment:
$VLO 69 put, partial short stock position covered
Have a great weekend everyone! I’ll be checking in on the blog all weekend.
BTC Dec 19 2150/2160 for .05 Sold for 1.00 on 11/17.
#SPXcampaign Had to take another one ahead of the weekend… can’t get stuck with these monthly spreads that could easily be in the money should next week crash.
BTC $SPX Dec 17th 1925/1900 put spreads for 2.60. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 19th.
STO Jan2 SPX 2120/2135 1.70 to make IC again
closed 2160/2175 for .50 this AM, will close again for 50%
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 17th 1945/1920 put spreads for 2.90. Sold for 1.35 on Nov 23rd. Hopefully the last spread I will have to stop, although I will look at what is left and consider closing early before a possible Monday crash.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 2110/2135 call spreads for 2.00. This is a #ReverseRoll from the Dec 24th put spread stopped out today. This is the only call-roll I will use today, as I do not want to throw all my risk up there only to have a huge bear-market rally next week. Waiting for Monday to look at further rolls.
#SPXcampaign Clearing decks so I can roll some of these spreads down so I can #ReverseRoll from the put spreads
BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2180/2205 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 18th (part of a roll)
BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2165/2190 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 27th
#VIXIndicator We are already under a triple $VIX Warning, but another signal just fired, as 24.18 is 25% above yesterday’s close. The Downside risk is increasing (duh).
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 2170/2195 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.30 on Nov 24th. Want to clear the call side so I can sell more… it is the safer play in this environment.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 1935/1910 put spread for 2.90. Sold of 1.35 for Nov 23rd
#Fibonacciqueen #SPXcampaign Interesting fib graph on where the SPX has been and where it could go.
http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/public/SPX-updated-8.cfm
I was pretty light on the put side so I decided to put this one on at close to 2 standard deviations away, and below the August low.
Sold $SPX Dec 31 1865/1840 BuPS @ 1.25
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Jan 8th 1910/1885 put spreads for 2.95. Sold for 1.30 on Monday.
Futures dumped overnight, but a pretty decent retail sales report was just released. Wage growth and consumer spending on the rise. It all may not matter, however, as we have multiple VIX warnings piling up, and everyone is hanging on the Fed decision next week.
I have been studying the VIX indicator, and since 1999 there have never been three Warnings before a full correction occurs. I believe the only reason we are not much lower in the indices is because of the impending Fed decision. I am on the lookout for declines… when they start is harder to call.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 17th 2165/2190 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.25 on Nov 17th.
STO $SPX Dec 17th 2125/2150 call spreads for 1.20.
This is basically taking profit on one spread then selling another spread as a bonus, but it can also be looked at as rolling for profit. I know the FOMC minutes next week could send markets soaring, but I will be okay with having to deal with the call side, since the put side has been the troubled side lately.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 11th 2085/2110 call spreads for .75. After missing the chance yesterday, I still wanted to get some credit on the non-threatened side of this week’s condor. Still perilously holding the 2025/2000 puts.
STO SPX 100 JAN16 (1/15/2016) 1855/1830 BuPS @1.45
#SPXcampaign #Rolling STO $SPX Dec 31st 1900/1875 put spreads for 1.65. This is a roll from spreads stopped out last week. Despite the downside warning, I still feel we will continue consolidation into FOMC and monthly expiration next week. If I am wrong, that’s what stops are for.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 31st 2175/2200 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Nov 30th.
#SPXcampaign At 9:20 PT, STO $SPX Jan 8th 1870/1845 put spreads for 1.25.
#VIXIndicator Third time since 11/13.
$VIX just hit 19.20, which is 50% above the October 28th low of 12.80. If we hit 19.80, that will be 25% above Tuesday’s close, which will be a second signal and yet another Downside Warning.
Wow, had to step out briefly…. not only did I miss call spread fill, I missed my stop on the put spread. What a bad morning to have to step away!
Next $VIX Indicator signals are 19.20, then 19.80.
STO $NFLX 1/15/2016 110/120 BUPS $2.5
STO $KMI 1/15/2016 15Put @.5. Thank you Ramie
STO $UVXY 12/18 45 call @ .6 Thank you vxxkelly
STO SPXW 12/11/2015 2130.00/2105.00 call @ 1.00. Thanks Jeff
STO Jan2 SPX 2160/2175 1.25 to make IC
Pulled of the 2105 spread orders, now trying for 2110/2135
STO SPX DEC2 15 (this Friday) 2000/1975 BuPS @.85 early in the morning
STO SPX JAN4 16 (1/15/2016) 1875/1850 BuPS @1.55
#SPXcampaign Since I bollocksed up the first one by selling only the put side too early on Monday (stopped out yesterday), trying this again with much less time for things to go wrong.
STO $SPX Dec 11th 2025/2000 puts spreads for 1.50.
Selling SPX Dec 11th 2105/2130 call spreads, working on a fill for .70 or higher. If I can’t get that I will drop down to 2100/2125.
I think we will continue these volatile swings into next week’s FOMC, but this week’s wildness shouldn’t threaten these strikes. Nonetheless, stop will be set at 2.50 for each side.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 2160/2185 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2060. This is the first of two call spreads I will sell for this expiry.
BTC SPX Dec2 2120/2135 .10 top of IC
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 11th 2035/2015 put spreads for 2.60. I had a conditional stop-limit order on this that somehow executed when condition was not met. I am on phone with broker now trying to sort out. Condition was SPX below 2063, placed at 10:50am ET. As you can see, it has been above that level since then (as of this writing at 11:32 ET). Trade closed at 10:59, filled for 2.60 on a 2.85 limit order. Not a happy camper. (although I’ll be okay with it if we drop back below 2063!)
STO SPC Jan2 1930/1915 1.15
STC Dec2 2065/2055 Put spread 210 profit bought yesterday for 2.65
#SPXcampaign, regarding my $SPX Dec 11th 2035/2015 spread sold yesterday, went into the hole with it this morning but decided not to panic on a morning flush. Bounce now has it back below 3.00, so I will reinstate the stop now and get out if this rally is short-lived. Still looking to sell the call side for a condor.
Sold $NFLX 12/18/2015 118.00 P @ 1.4
Sold $AMZN 12/11/2015 625/645 BUPS
Sold $NFLX 12/11/2015 118.00/124 BUPS
Sold $ SPXW 12/11/2015 2015 /2035 BUPS
#SPXcampaign STO SPX DEC2 15 (12/11/2015) 2010/1985 BuPS @1.10 early morning
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 1910/1885 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2077. This is the first of two put spreads and two call spreads I plan to sell this week for the Jan 8th expiry.
STO SPX this week 2030/2015 1.00 added back calls closed Friday back to IC
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 11th 2035/2015 put spreads for 1.25. Will add the call side with any move higher. Idea is to get 2.25 premium or better for the condor, with a 3.00 stop on each side, meaning max loss for the week is .75.
$SVXY 55 Put
$SVXY 45 Put
$NFLX 122 Put
$UVXY 23 Put
$SVXY 24 Put
$UVXY 55 Call
$UVXY 65 Call
Spreads Expiring Full Profit
$SPXW 2030/2035 BUPS
$AMBA 48/52 BUPS
Covered Calls
$AAPL 118 call Stock called away Still have a position in AAPL
$WMT 60.5 call expired. Will sell premium Monday
$FIT 29.5 call. Stock called away. $2 share loss
Straight Calls
$XOM 1/15/2016
80 call. Stopped out 41% loss
Thank you to everyone here
$NXPI 75 puts
$SPX 2125/2145 call spreads
$SPX 2130/2155 call spreads
$UVXY 23 puts
$VLO 65 & 68.5 puts
$VLO 73 calls
Assignment:
$NXPI 85 calls, stock called away, leaving me flat in the name
Have a great weekend everyone! Thanks for everything.
SPX Expire today 2140/2155 2005/1990 total credit 220.00 net
BTC SPX Dec2 2005/1990 .35 sold 12/2 1.15 will add it back early next week
Today’s strength seems to indicate that the immediate downside danger is over. However, since these $VIX warnings fired twice within a month, it is likely there is some pain coming. These signals often can come weeks or months before a correction. With December often being a lighter, bullish month, be careful with your January positions as I would imagine more volatility is waiting until then.
STO SPX Dec2 2125/2135 .85 part of roll from this week
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 24th 2155/2180 call spreads for 1.35. This is partial roll out of Dec 24th put spread stopped yesterday. Will add more next week.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.25. Second call spread for this expiry; first one was sold at Monday’s open (2175/2200).
STO SPX Dec2 2120/2135 1.10 to make IC have 2005/1990 total Credit 2.20 net
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 2175/2200 call spreads for 1.00. 1.5x position size, paired with 1890/1865 put spread below. Completes rollout of stopped Dec 31st spread.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Jan 8th 1890/1865 put spreads for 1.40. This is part of an iron condor roll from the stopped 12/31 put spread from yesterday. I will look to sell a call spread as well on further strength. This is 1.5x position size, seeking at least 2.15 in premium to make up for 3.30 cost of the the stop.
#VIXIndicator Yesterday The $VIX indicator developed for the #SPXcampaign fired a Downside Warning. This was due to a 25% rise over Tuesday’s close, and also a 50% rise from the latest VIX low on 10/28. This happened on Nov 13th as well, but then retraced back down as $SPX rallied. These are the first times since the indicator was developed that we have traded through it in real time. In backtesting, the Warning usually was followed by a correction, but sometimes it would be several weeks later. Today, we have the jobs report which could rally the market and nullify the signal, or it could lead to further downside. Watch your stops, protect your capital, take opportunities when they appear.
Sold SPX put spread for tomorrow. 2000/2010 for .40 cent credit. It may be there tomorrow and it could be risky. If I see something for next week that is too good to pass up I will try to post it.
Also did a 1 x 2 in gpro that worked well which I may do again but move down a little bit. I bought 1 19 put and sold 2 18.50 for a .40 credit. Currently slight ITM (which is fine). We will see what tomorrow brings. But if you look about 2 weeks out you can probably get the same kind of credit and I might consider starting a bit lower depending on what the chain looks like. If I put the trade on I will post it.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 24th 1950/1925 put spreads for 2.90.
Be careful with holding spreads overnight and over weekend that are close to stops.
The non-farm payrolls in the morning could add to further volatility, or also cause a large bounce.
The $VIX surpassed 18.34, which is 25% above Tuesday’s close. This is one of two signals we need to fire a Downside Warning on the #SPXcampaign. Next signal would be 19.20.
Additionally, this is the second time we’ve had signals fire since the VIX low on 10/28. A Warning did go into effect on 11/6, but since VIX retraced significantly that warning was nullified. However, because VIX has not reached a new low, we can consider any signals now slightly more urgent.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 31st 1960/1935 put spreads for 3.30. Tried to get out at a lower price on the last bounce, but it was too minor. Will look to roll if we go lower today.
SPX This Friday 2020/2030 2120/2130
closed 2040/2030 IC lost 30.00
$VIX just peaked 2 cents shy of a downside signal, 18.34 is 25% above Tuesday’s close. $SPX hitting support level at 2050. May get a bounce here but no telling whether we go lower today or tomorrow.
#SPXCampaign Yesterday opened STO Dec 4 $SPX 2030/2025 bull put spread @ .35. Earlier today STO 2105/2110 bear call spread @ .30 to complete IC.
IRA SPX STO Dec 4 2020/2015 bull put spread @ .30
PCLN 11 Hour trade STO Dec 4 1305/1310 bear call spread @ .50
KOLD reloaded STO Jan 15 114 put @ 3.40. thanks vxxkelly for the wake up.
Stopped out of my Dec 11th 2150/2160 BeCS @ .10. Originally sold for 0.70 on 11/23. Stepping lightly until the big FOMC event.
#SPXcampaign BTC $SPX Dec 4th 2035/2105 put spread for 1.45. This was sold as a condor on Monday for 2.60. Calls will expire tomorrow. Decided to close early to take about 40% of profit and not have the concern from further downside, especially with jobs number tomorrow that could have any effect. I will have plenty to roll if we keep going down.
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 31st 1915/1890 put spreads for 1.25.
This is the second put spread for the week.
If weakness continues some rolling will have to happen.
$VIX levels to watch are 18.34 and 19.20. These are the next two signal levels for a downside warning.
Morning all. BTC my Dec 4th 2140/2150 BeCS @ .05 on a GTC order. Didn’t think to cancel it this morning. Oh well. ToS needs the comissions
This is yesterday’s 15 min chart with today’s support and resistance levels on it. Those levels are normally not apparent on the daily charts, but sometimes, those levels hold the SPX or at least act as points where the price consolidate for a while.
#SPXCampaign
STO Dec 19 1980/1975 BuPS @ 0.40
SPXCampaign STO Dec 4 $SPX 2030/2025 Bull put spread @ .35 will probably open other side for IC tomorrow
$KOLD BTC $KOLD 100 put @ .50 sold on Nov 11 for 2.92 80% close 16 DTE early. Thanks optioniceman, jeff
Options Bistro 