$SPX “reversal doji?”

The SPX closed negative on a long legged doji at the top of the move; this normally indicates indecision and may even be a sign of reversal….

Debit Spread on the $SPX

#BuCS at the end. BTO May 3rd SPX 2415/2435 for $2.00
I’ll risk $1.00 on this trade, which possibly could make $18 if the SPX ends up at 2435 by May 3.
I don’t plan on holding it that long though. I may get out if tomorrow the market jumps again and it doubles in price. Low Probability big reward low risk trade.

$SPX BeCS Closed

#SPX Campaign; Jeff, I decided to get rid of my BeCS. With the President revealing the Tax Reform tomorrow I thought that the market may jump another bunch of points up again.
I’ll wait until the VIX give us the green light to get back in.
Took a little loss but nothing to write home about. Still up nicely for the week.

Closed TSLA and AMZN #BuPS…

Closed TSLA and AMZN #BuPS for 50% profit to avoid Thu earnings.

#BuPS BTC NFLX 135/125 BuPS…

#BuPS
BTC NFLX 135/125 BuPS for $0.59 Sold on Thu for $1.60

#earnings Tonight After the bell:…

#earnings
Tonight After the bell: V
Tomorrow before the Bell: HON, SLB, KSU, GE
Anyone???

A couple of trades this morning.

#CreditSpread #BuPS #IronCondors
STO May 19 NFLX 135/125 BuPS for $1.60 right after the open.
STO Apr 24 SPX 2290/2285 BuPS and 2395/2390 BeCS for $0.65 when SPX was at 2346.02

$TSLA #BuPS STO May 12…

$TSLA #BuPS
STO May 12 TSLA 275/255 BuPS for $2.53
Earnings on May 24th AMC.
Support at 294, 286, 278 & 270.

#BuPS BTO Apr 28 BA…

#BuCS
BTO Apr 28 BA 185/187.5 Calls for $0.54 debit.
This is a bullish position playing towards earnings. Earnings Apr 26.
BA is on a squeeze on the daily chart. Going towards earnings it should move up. My max risk is $54 pp. and this is a 2:1 trade.
Sorry guys; I’m so used to sell credit spreads that I had a lapsus linguae on this one.

#BePS Closed BTO ALXN 129/124…

#BePS Closed
BTO ALXN 129/124 BePS for $3.00 Sold for $2.40 last week. A small win but it sure beats losing.

#BuPS STO Apr 7 AMZN…

#BuPS
STO Apr 7 AMZN 820/800 for $1.28
BTC Mar 24 TMUS 60/57 BuPS for $0.10 Sold for $2.45 last week.

#ShortPutsDiagonal STO Mar 24 BIDU…

#ShortPutsDiagonal
STO Mar 24 BIDU 180 Puts and BTO Mar 31 BIDU 175 Put for a Credit of $1.65 right at the open. BEP 177.29. The position makes max gain above 180.

#SPXSupport These are extensions from…

#SPXSupport
SPX Mar 14 2017
These are extensions from previous down moves during the past 4 months. I would be very careful if we drop below 2350.

#DebitSpread BTO Apr 13 AXP…

#DebitSpread
BTO Apr 13 AXP 81.5/78.5 BuCS for $1.30

#DebitSpread #BePS BTO Apr 13…

#DebitSpread #BePS
BTO Apr 13 ALXN 129/124 BePS for $2.40

#bups STO Mar 24th TMUS…

#DebitSpread #BePS
BTO Mar 24th TMUS 60/57 Bought the 60 Put and Sold the 57 Put for $0.62
Sorry I posted this as a credit when it should have been a debit.

#Squeeze Stocks undergoing Squeezes in…

#Squeeze
Stocks undergoing Squeezes in multiple charts
Multiple Squeeze
39 (39 min)
78 (78 min)
D (Daily)
W (Weekly)
M (Monthly)

ADSK 39,78,D
AFL 78,W
ADM D, W
COST M
CRM 78,W,M
DAL 39,M
DHI W,M
EA W
EBAY 78
F D,W,M
FB 39,78
FFIV 39
GILD W
GRMN 39,W
HD M
HON 78
KBH 39,D,W,M
KO W,M
LLY M
LOW W,M
LULU D
LVS M
MA 39,M
NFLX 39
NKE 39,78
ORCL W,M
PEP W,M
PM 78
RIG M
SBUX M
SU M
SLB M
TGT 78,M
UTX 39,78
V 39,M
VLO M
WMT W
WYNN W
XOM M

Not all of these will fire to the upside; some will fire down (bearish). According to JC most stocks will run for 3 to 6 bars after they fire. That means that on a Monthly Chart the Stock could be going up or down for 3 to 6 months. Be careful checking earnings before placing a trade though. The squeeze may wait until then to move.
So far, squeezes fire 90% of the time and when they do, there is always an opportunity of good gains.
Good Trading.

#TechnicalAnalysis Is this an Island…

#TechnicalAnalysis spx-island-reversal
Is this an Island Reversal?

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah

Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all.
May all your wishes and desires be fulfilled in the coming year.
And may God grant you and your families a healthy and prosperous New Year.

Maybe I’m crazy…

#LongPut #LongPutSpread I believe that tomorrow is a good day for a slight correction, especially since the price action on the daily and weekly charts is outside the BB; so, to put my money where my mouth is: I BTO Dec 12 2225/2210 BePS for $1.15 each.
I’ll risk the cost, but if I’m right, I’ll make some money tomorrow.

Bloomberg Market News this morning…

Italy’s Renzi says he will resign after being roundly defeated in yesterday’s referendum, and the oil market is in backwardation.
No referendum panic

As polls predicted, Italian voters rejected Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum on constitutional reform yesterday. And true to his word, Renzi announced that he would present his resignation to the president this morning. While initial market reaction was risk-off, with the euro and Italian assets hit, markets recovered their composure quite quickly. By 4:55 a.m. ET, the FTSE MIB Index was unchanged and the euro was trading at $1.0639. Italy’s 10-year bond yield was 2.0167 percent, up 11 basis points, but certainly not showing signs of investor panic. Also in Europe, the re-run of Austria’s presidential election yesterday saw the far-right candidate defeated by pro-European candidate Van der Bellen.
Brexit in dock

The U.K. Supreme Court will today hear the government’s case against holding a vote in parliament before triggering Britain’s exit from the European Union. The 11-judge court, which was only established seven years ago, is not expected to rule on the case before January. Meanwhile, rather than a hard or soft Brexit, government ministers now seem to be split on whether the U.K. should opt for a ‘gray Brexit.’ In eco-news, U.K. services PMI accelerated at the fastest pace in 10 months in November, rising to 55.2.

SPX

#spxcampaign #ira #OptionsExpiration
STO Dec 9 2225/2250 BeCS for $1.35 completing the IC for this expiration.
STO Dec 12 2230/2255 BeCS for $1.30 for the same reason.
Today will expire on my IRA the following SPX spreads: 2120/2105 BuPS; 2160/2145 BuPS and 2230/2245 BeCS

ADSK Bullish Trade

#IRA #CreditSpread
ADSK had bad earnings and tanked; however, on the weekly chart the price drop stopped on the 21 EMA and it seems to be wanting to rebound.
STO Jan 20 ADSK 65/55 BuPS for $1.25; my stop will be at 65…the R/R cutting the position at 65 is 1:1.

#SPXcampaign STO Dec 30 SPX…

#SPXcampaign STO Dec 30 SPX 2125/2100 for $2.60 when SPX was at 2207.25

#spxcampaign STO Dec 12 SPX…

#spxcampaign STO Dec 12 SPX 2145/2120 at $1.80 when the SPX was at 2107.77

Rolling SPX…

BTC Nov 25 SPX 2215/2230 for $1.35 Sold for $0.45 last week…
STO Dec 2 SPX 2230/2245 for $1.55….
This is the first Roll I’ve ever done. I hope I did it right!
Comments please.

SPX Bullish Spread…

BTO Dec 9th SPX 2190/2195 BuCS for $3.00; this is a poor sibling of the position I closed this morning too soon. I’ll close it if the SPX closes below the 5 EMA on the daily chart.

A Long Position on the SPX…

BTO Dec 9th SPX 2225 Calls for $4.10.
I believe that the market is quite bullish and still has enough left in the tank to move above the ATH. I don’t think that it will reach 2225 but who knows.
I see a squeeze forming on the weekly and monthly charts on the SPX and that could mean a quick and fast move up, similarly to what happened in the RUT and the DJI last week.
I’ll keep the position until the Theta decay eats away 50% of the original price. Besides I’ve got several BuPS and BeCS which are paying for this position.

STO Nov 25 SPX 2210/2235…

STO Nov 25 SPX 2210/2235 BeCS for $1.25

SPX Weekly Chart…

spx-11-11-16

Jeff, I need to speak…

Jeff, I need to speak with you privately.
Please, join me in Skype;
prvtrader19

Is the SPX heading down?

spx-10-31-16
What do you guys think?
Up or Down on Nov 9th?

SPX is whipsaw Heaven today.

Is this Index ever going to make up its mind?
Well as long as it remains in the “Box” we are good.

SPX Trade on Small Account.

STO Nov 4 SPX 2190/2195 BeCS for $0.35
According to a friend selling one of this each week will get a 2.5% Return per week. I placed this on an account with less than $10k. Max loss is $465.
Any thoughts.
I added a BuPS on the SPX for the same expiry. 2085/2080 for $0.30 to complete the IC. No more Margin and more return.

My Take on the SPX (for what is worth…)

I’ve been looking at the SPX chart and both the 78 min and the Daily are showing a very bearish pattern. Jeff’s VIX indicator issued a downside warning on Oct 13, so I believe that we may be going down probably the next couple of weeks. That doesn’t mean that each day may be a down day though. There will be up days mixed in with down days; But IMHO, the direction now is mostly bearish. Unless the Feds do something to change the direction before the elections. Who knows?spx-oct-14-2016-bearish

NVDA Earnings

Does anyone knows when NVDA is reporting?
So far I have conflicting dates, from Nov 3rd to Nov 10th.

Interesting Article on Seeking Alpha.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4011685-equity-market-never-send-human-machines-job?app=1&auth_param=8ssr3:1bvslkb:39d4569bd406de4f41f25735638bd0f6#alt2

DAL Double Calendar

BTO Oct 14/Oct 21 DAL 37.5 P & 40 C for $0.37 pp.
This is a double Calendar dal-dc

This Chart shows which is…

option-strategy-easy-selection-guide-v2

This Chart shows which is the best strategy when the IV is rising, steady or dropping.

Credit Spread on HLF

STO Oct 21 HLF 59/54 BuPS at $0.86
HLF is on a weekly and Daily squeeze but it would need to close above the 50 SMA on the daily chart to really become bullish and explode. In the mean time I’ll get some time decay.
Stop at 58.999 in case I’m wrong.

Closed UVXY at 60% profit.

BTC Sep 30 UVXY 30 Calls at $0.40 sold it for $1.50 on Thursday.

Long Shot on NVDA…

BTO Nov 18 NVDA 70/65 BuCS for $1.48
This is a long shot, but my max loss is just $148 pp and have a possible win is $3.52 pp…so it is a nice 3:1 Return/Risk. and it has 64 days to work.

Taking Profits on AMZN BuPS

BTC AMZN 762.5/747.5 BuPS at $2.73 Sold on 9/1 for $4.25

Debit Spread on WMB

BTO Oct 21st WMB 30/33 BuCS for $0.90

(F) FORD Lowers 2016 pre-tax Profit Forecast

Ford lowers 2016 pre-tax profit forecast on expanded recall

GOOGL to Buy Software Developer

Google to buy software developer Apigee in $625 million deal

AAPL Drags Down Wall Street

Apple drags down Wall Street

Betting on Crude to Continue going Down.

BTO Sep 30 BP 34/35 BePS for $0.45. Max Loss is $45 pp Max Win is $55 pp. BP needs to go down to $34 to get max profit at expiration. If BP goes over today’s high, I may bail….
This is a Debit Spread…Theta is slightly negative at this level, if price goes down, then it will become positive.

AMZN Bullish Play

STO Sep 23 AMZN 762.5/747.5 BuPS for $4.25
This is a directional play and my stop is at 762, below that level AMZN is not bullish anymore short term.

Flat into Monday.

I closed my JPM BuCS for a huge profit of 7 cts pp….So now I’m totally flat.
We’ll trade again on Monday.

Closing Winning Trades before Yellen’s speech.

BTC Sep 23 GOOGL 830/840 BeCS for $0.90 Sold for $2.65
STC Sep 9th TSLA 230/220 BePS for $6.00 Bought for $5.00
Now I only have a JPM Debit spread left…

Janet will speak at 10:00AM…

Janet will speak at 10:00AM ET in Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. There is a 50/50 chance for a Dec interest rate hike by the Fed. The odds for a Sep hike are just 30%….This looks like Vegas, not like a stock market. Her speech is titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit” It sounds like some product from a software company….:-)

TSLA looking very bearish….

TSLA DashBoard
There is a squeeze on the 5, 195, and daily chart which should fire down.

BeCS on TSLA

STO OCT 21 TSLA 240/250 BeCS for $1.65; my stop is at $240….
there are several squeezes forming in different time frames and the indication is that they should fire bearish…

Debit Spread that didn’t work

STC Aug 19 GOOGL 807.5/815 BuCS for $2.60 Bought for $3.25 So it is a $0.65 loss.

Iron Condor in GOOGL

STO Sep 23 GOOGL 787.5/777.5 BuPS and 830/840 BeCS for $5.00
This is a 1:1 risk/reward trade. So basically it becomes a binary trade. I either win or lose.

ADBE Squeeze Play

BTO Sep 16 ADBE 97.5 Calls at $3.25

Double Calendars…not working very well

Double Calendars have been disappointing on this earnings season. I don’t know if it is because of the IV levels or because the movements have been not big enough. All I know is that none of the DC I’ve used have produced good profits; the ones that worked produced very low profits. Most didn’t work and lost me money.
Jeff, please read my post in Skype…

BMY Double Cal closed

STC BMY 7/29 – 8/29 74.5 Put for $0.32 Bought yesterday for $0.45 pp Loss of $0.13 pp.
STC BMY 7/29 – 8/29 78.5 Call for $1.15 Bought yesterday for $0.62 pp Win of $0.53 pp.
So the position made $0.40 pp. overnight.

Closing FB double Cal.

Just closed the FB Calls for $0.56 bought yesterday for $0.50 No Profit just broke even because of commissions.
I’m going to hold the Puts for now; I’m going to let expire the short Put tomorrow and will sell another one against the long next Monday. That way I may reduce the loss.

BMY Double Calendar

BTO Jul 29 / Aug 19 BMY 74.5 Put and 78.5 Call at $1.07

FB double Calendar for tonight earnings.

BTO Jul 29/Aug 19 112 Put and 132 Call for $1.08

First Ever Earnings Trade….

BTO Double Cal Aug 5 – Sep 2 on MBLY 45P and 53C for $1.70….Will close tomorrow.

HLF didn’t work out, this time

Closed the HLF for a $0.55 loss. fastest loss on record in my case….:-)

HLF BuPS

STO Aug 5 HLF 65/60 for $1.55 will get out if HLF drops below 65.

QIHU Calls

QIHU had good earnings this morning and it gapped up $3.00; it hasn’t moved much since.
According to the Dynamic Indicator it shows a major bullish bias since all time frames are green and in sync, so I decided to buy some Calls.
I bought the Jul 29 77 Calls for $0.05…with a IV of 1.9%
Maybe the MM don’t expect QIHU to move any higher, but these options still have 15 DTE, a blip up and they should be worth more than 5cts.
What am I missing?

100% in Cash Now.

This week I closed all my remaining positions including the Long options on NVDA, GME and FB and the Broken wing butterfly on TSLA. All positions were closed for profit. A very good week.
Now I will wait for the market to decide what it wants to do during earnings.

Two Squeeze trades closed: NVDA & GME

Closed NVDA 160722C47.5 for a $3.60 Bought on Thu for $1.98
Closed GME 160729C26 for $2.65 Bought on Fri for $1.58
Nice profit to start the week…..:-)

AET got hit hard…

Had to close the AET Diagonal because insurance companies dropped big time due to the government squashing two proposed mergers between insurance companies….my kind of luck.

Well it seems that the…

Well it seems that the market drop was just profit taking and very short lived…..

AET pre Earnings Trade

AET is on a 30 min and daily squeeze; it just fired up from a 5 min squeeze.
Earnings are on Aug 2nd so I did a Dia.
BTO Aug 5 AET 188 Call and STO Jul22 AET 122 Calls for $3.28.
this position will make money as long as AET remains above 119.70.
I’ll cut it off if AET drops below 118.50

SPX BuPS Closed

BTC Jul 20 SPX 1930/1905 for $0.40 Sold for $3.10
Once in a while even a blind squirrel finds an acorn.

WMT didn’t pan out.

STC WMT 72 Calls for $0.98 Bought them for $1.05 yesterday….It looks bearish now, so I got out with a slight loss.

SPX Support and Resistance Levels.

SPX Retracement Support Values: 2074-72; 2055-58; 2045-47; 2030-2033.
SPX Resistance Values: 2100-2104; 2010-2112; 2115-2116; 2130-2134; 2144-2146.

Backtesting IC in SPX – TT

Yesterday TT did a backtest on Iron Condors on the SPX.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_recaps/2016-06-29/episodes/backtesting-iron-condors-in-spx-06-29-2016
Watch how they do it.