Does anyone know…

…what news hit?

Rolling ARM

I was about to close this for a nice profit but that chart is making me want to stay involved some more.
Rolled $ARM Jan 19 57.50 puts up to Jan 19 67 puts (26 delta) @ 1.38 credit with the stock at 72.07.

SPX trades 12/20

#SPX1de Adding another tight position on this quiet week: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 20th 4730/4750-4790/4810 condors for .75. Deltas -.08 +.08

TSLA AMD MARA Covered Calls

#coveredcalls
$TSLA STO 12/22 262.50 calls at 2.14
$AMD STO 12/22 144 calls at .92
$MARA STO 1/19 30 calls at 1.25

#coveredcalls Sto HE 29 DEC…

HE
#coveredcalls
Sto HE 29 DEC 23 15 CALL @.10

FXI

#ShortPuts – Adding.

Sold FXI Dec 29 2023 24.5 Puts @ .98

SPX trades 12/19

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 19th 4720/4700 put spreads for .60, delta -.10, IV 14.2%

This is a bonus spread; my condor from yesterday still on.

SPX next day

#SPX1dte Filled 23 seconds after closing bell: Sold to Open $SPX Dec 19th 4685/4705-4785/4805 condors for .95. I wasn’t at my screen, but I estimate deltas were -.09 +.04

Rolling MELI again

With the stock at 1620, rolled Jan 19 1420 put out to Feb 16 1420 put (13 delta) @ 10.70 credit. With rolls, total premium taken in now 80.97.

SPX 1dte

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 18th 4670/4690-4760/4780 condors for .85, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 15.3%

Economic Calendar 12/18 – 12/22

Screenshot 2023-12-15 at 11.22.43 AM
Screenshot 2023-12-15 at 11.23.10 AM

TLT

#ShortPuts – Taking nice gains a month early. Adding to shorter term sales.

Bought to Close TLT Jan 19 2024 95.0 Put @ .48 (sold for 3.23)
Bought to Close TLT Jan 19 2024 96.0 Put @ .69 (sold for 3.91)
Bought to Close TLT Jan 19 2024 97.0 Put @ .98 (sold for 4.65)
Bought to Close TLT Jan 19 2024 98.0 Put @ 1.34 (sold for 3.45)

Sold TLT Dec 22 2023 99.0 Put @ .86
Sold TLT Dec 22 2023 100.0 Put @ 1.56

NOC

#SyntheticShortStock – As usual my covered puts got absolutely smoked. Selling against a long term synthetic short out to 2026. Rolling out and down a strike. Week before earnings.

Rolled NOC Dec 15 2023 477.5 Puts @ to Jan 19 2024 475 Puts @ even (7.45 and 4.50 total now)

At some point I may close the synthetic short and trade the puts like regular sales.

I’m sensing a theme here. LOL Decent directional trades but killing myself with the options. I still have nightmares about owning 900 shares of SOXL at 70 and having calls get run over and selling the stock at 90 just before it went to 600. UUgh.

TLT

#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – As usual my covered calls got absolutely smoked. I’ve been rolling the calls up and out and selling puts daring it to come back down. Taking put profits and buying back covered calls gradually. Would like to get as much of it uncovered as possible in case JP actually does cut rates (although I am still skeptical).

Adding:

Sold TLT Dec 22 2023 99.0 Puts @ .93

XBI

#CoveredCalls #ShortPuts – As usual my covered calls got absolutely smoked. Letting stock go at a loss and replacing with short puts to get back to even. Last time I tried this I went full position with my put sales right before the last implosion. I’ll be more careful this time going with about one third size and hoping to add.

I’m going this route instead of rolling the calls to get cash back into the sweep earning 5 percent.

XBI Stock called away @ 75.00 (basis 76.90 and 78.25)

Sold XBI Dec 22 2023 84.0 Puts @ .86

SPX trades 12/15

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 15th 4675/4655 put spreads for .75, delta -.08, IV 21.05%

FXI

#SyntheticStock #ShortPuts – Uncovering the synthetic stock and sprinkling in a few put sales.

Bought to Close FXI Dec 15 2023 24.0 Calls @ .26 (sold for .24)

Sold FXI Dec 22 2023 24.0 Puts @ .65
Sold FXI Dec 22 2023 24.5 Puts @ 1.03

Sold FXI Jan 05 2024 24.0 Puts @ .82

Sold FXI Jan 12 2024 23.5 Puts @ .63

Sold FXI Feb 16 2024 27.0/24.0 Bull Put Spreads @ 2.25

TLT

#ShortPuts – Let’s see if the 200 day holds.

Sold TLT Dec 22 2023 97.5 Puts @ .50
Sold TLT Dec 22 2023 98.0 Puts @ .70

AI Roll

#coveredcalls
$AI BTC 12/15 29.50 and STO 12/22 30.50 call at added credit of .15 and extra $1 if called away.

SNOW rollup

Rolled $SNOW Jan 19 170 puts up to Jan 19 190 puts @ 3.85 credit with the stock around 197. Total premium now 24.99 on the put sales and rolls so if I’m assigned at 190 my basis will be around 165.

SPX Trade Leg In – Neck out??

#spx0dte
$SPX STO 4660/4680 – 4795/4775 at 1.10

SPX trades 12/14

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 14th 4650/4670-4765/4785 condors for .95, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 21%

SPX trades 12/13

#SPX1dte Unable to sell any puts as market just ran. Profit is availabe on the #RiskReversal I sold yesterday… gonna try to pick a top.

SPY Put

Sold 1 SPY Dec 13 2023 460.0 Put at $0.17.
Paired with the calls I’m already short for today.
#OnlySpreads

TLT

#ShortPuts – Taking 60 to 70 percent of max prior to JP. Orders in for next week hoping for a good fill on some fluctuations.

Bought to Close TLT Dec 15 2023 93.5 Puts @ .18 (sold for .75)
Bought to Close TLT Dec 15 2023 94.0 Puts @ .29 (sold for 1.00)
Bought to Close TLT Dec 15 2023 95.0 Puts @ .65 (sold for 1.50)

And just in case he’s dovish:

Sold TLT Jan 19 2024 98.0 Put @ 3.40

Taking the COIN

Bought to close $COIN Jan 19 65 puts @ .16. Sold for 2.48 on 11/8. Only 16 cents left to make with over a month left.

Another 0DTE Idea

Haven’t tried this…just now happened to see it.

SPY Expiration

1 SPY Dec 12 2023 469/465 Bear Call Spread
SPY Dec 12 2023 465 Diagonal Calls (leaves me with some extra long calls for tomorrow)
#OnlySpreads

SPY

#ShortPuts – Crazy run. Taking around 70-80 percent of max a few weeks early.

Bought to Close SPY Jan 05 2024 440.0 Puts @ .47 (sold for 2.25)

Bought to Close SPY Jan 19 2024 435.0 Put @ .82 (sold for 2.45)
Bought to Close SPY Jan 19 2024 440.0 Put @ 1.08 (sold for 3.19)

New SPX high

$SPX just exceeded the March 2022 high of 4637.30. Next would be the all-time high from Jan 2022 of 4818.62.

SPY Calls

My short 465 calls for today look safe (for now).
Adding new positions for tomorrow

Sold 1 SPY Dec 13 2023 466 Call at $0.49
Sold 1 SPY Dec 13 2023 467 Call at $0.30
Sold 1 SPY Dec 13 2023 468 Call at $0.19
#OnlySpreads

SPY Question

Does anyone know when the SPY ex-div date is???

VIX is crashing

A new low below 12.

Market to the moon

ARM puts

Increasing my exposure to the chip sector. Sold to open $ARM Jan 19 57.50 puts @ 1.00 with the stock at 64.82.

SPX trades 12/12

#SPX1dte #RiskReversal
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 13th (next day) 4520/4500 put spreads
Bought to Open Dec 13th 4700/4720 call spreads
Net DEBIT .50

I will hold this until after Fed press conference tomorrow, in case ultimate market reaction is bullish

CPI rose 0.1% in November

Prices across a broad range of goods and services edged higher in November as energy prices declined, providing hope that inflation could be on a lower trajectory.

The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%.

While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month ago.

Excluding volatile and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 4% from a year ago. Both numbers were in line with estimates and little changed from October.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html

SPY Expiration

SPY Dec 11 2023 466/462 Bear Call Spreads (just barely – $0.01 out of the money)
1 SPY Dec 11 2023 465/463 Bear Call Spread
#OnlySpreads

SPY Calls

Sold SPY Dec 12 2023 465.0 Calls at $0.38
#OnlySpreads

FXI

#SyntheticStock – Taking a long term shot. Starter position only .22 out of pocket.

Bought FXI Jan 16 2026 25.0/25.0/15.0 Synthetic Stock with Disaster Put @ .45 debit

Sold FXI Dec 15 2023 24.0 Calls @ .23

AI Call

#coveredcalls
$AI STO 12/15 29.50 call at .45

SPX trades 12/11

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 4550/4570-4635/4655 condors for 1.05, deltas -.08 +.06, IV 16.2%

Economic Calendar 12/11 – 12/15

Inflation reports and Fed decision the week!

Screenshot 2023-12-10 at 9.42.27 AM
Screenshot 2023-12-10 at 9.42.46 AM

ENPH Condor Expiration

1 ENPH Dec 08 2023 117/107/102/99 Short Iron Condor sold for $2.15.
#OnlySpreads

SPY Expiration

1 SPY Dec 08 2023 466/463 Bear Call Spread
1 SPY Dec 06 2023 465/462 Bear Call Spread
#OnlySpreads

BOIL – rolling out a week

Rolled deep in the money BOIL puts out a week for decent credits and rolled down the following:
Rolled BOIL 32 Puts to BOIL 31 Puts for $0.47 Credit
Rolled BOIL 31 Puts to BOIL 29 Puts for $0.56 Credit
Rolled 1 BOIL 30 Put to 1 BOIL 29 Put for $0.90 Credit

TLT

#ShortPuts – A couple more.

Sold TLT Dec 15 2023 93.5 Puts @ .75

NOC

#SyntheticShortStock – Selling against a long term synthetic short out to 2026. Rolling out a week and down a strike.

Rolled NOC Dec 08 2023 480.0 Puts to Dec 15 2023 477.5 Puts @ 2.00 credit (7.45 and 4.50 total now)

TLT

#ShortPuts – Partial re-load.

Sold TLT Dec 15 2023 94.0 Puts @ 1.00
Sold TLT Dec 15 2023 95.0 Puts @ 1.50

SPX trades 12/8

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX 4515/4535-4630/4660 condors for 1.00, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 21.65%

Muted reaction to Jobs number, wish I could have sold before the report but been burned too many times this year.

November Jobs Report

#Jobs — A bit more than expected. Wages increased strongly.

Gain of +199,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 185K
Unemployment down by 0.2 to 3.7%, vs expected unchanged
U6 unemployment 7.0%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation at 62.8%, up by 0.1
Average hourly earnings up by 0.4%; 4.0% increase over the year

September jobs revised down by -35K to +262K
October jobs unchanged at 150K

SPY Expiration

1 SPY Dec 07 2023 466/460 Bear Call Spread
SPY Dec 06 2023 466/459 Bear Call Spreads
#OnlySpreads

TLT

#ShortPuts – Some of these were sold in the money for a directional trade. After this big move I’m thinning the herd a little. Hoping to build a bigger Jan position on a pullback.

Bought to Close TLT Dec 15 2024 93.0 Put @ .39 (sold for 3.05)
Bought to Close TLT Dec 15 2024 94.0 Put @ .69 (sold for 2.30)
Bought to Close TLT Dec 15 2024 95.0 Put @ 1.10 (sold for 2.20)

Bought to Close TLT Jan 05 2024 93.0 Put @ .91 (sold for 2.44)
Bought to Close TLT Jan 05 2024 94.0 Put @ 1.27 (sold for 3.10)
Bought to Close TLT Jan 05 2024 95.0 Put @ 1.71 (sold for 3.85)

SPX trades 12/7

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 7th 4500/4520-4590/4610 condors for .90, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 16.7%

Weekly jobless claims came in exactly as expected so market has no meaningful reaction. Tomorrow’s MONTHLY job number may have more impact as we have both CPI and Fed Decision coming next week.

Bearish?

Today’s candlestick is bearish engulfing. Similar to last Wednesday, but that time was not engulfing on the lower side like today’s.

SPY Expiration

1 SPY Dec 06 2023 466/460 Bear Call Spread
1 SPY Dec 06 2023 459 Call
#OnlySpreads

Closing LLY

Not much left to make here, so I’m taking it off. Bought to close $LLY 12/15 540 put @ .35. Sold for 3.30 on 11/8.

SPX trades 12/6

#SPX1dte Sold $SPX Dec 6th 4555/4535 put spreads for 1.15, delta -.17

Tiny Stock Gains

Sold some more:
VNO at $28.02
USB at $40.01
BBY at $75.01
CPB at $43.01
#FormerFallingKnife #GoingToCash

SPY Expiration

SPY Dec 05 2023 457 Calls
SPY Dec 05 2023 458 Call
SPY Dec 05 2023 459 Call

BOIL CVS SPY

BOIL vs Put Assignment Friday
Sold 1 BOIL Dec 08 2023 38 Covered Call at $0.90

CVS Covered Call Ladder
Sold 1 CVS Dec 08 2023 73 Covered Call at $0.28
Sold CVS Dec 15 2023 73 Covered Calls at $0.58 and $0.68
Sold 1 CVS Dec 22 2023 74 Covered Call at $0.59

SPY Calls for today
Sold SPY Dec 05 2023 457 Calls at $0.98
Sold 1 SPY Dec 05 2023 458 Call at $0.22
Sold 1 SPY Dec 05 2023 459 Call at $0.13
#OnlySpreads

Something I Read

Sentiment always reverses faster than you’d expect. At first, it might feel like the bad times will only worsen. But when they don’t, folks begin to look at the bright side – and the next thing you know, everyone’s bullish again.

Typically, that process takes time… usually months, not weeks or days. But the recent stock reversal is an exception.

You see, stocks were oversold at the October bottom based on the relative strength index (“RSI”).

The RSI looks at recent prices to determine if a stock has moved too far, too fast. When that happens, a snapback rally is possible. So it’s worth paying attention to this indicator.

We generally refer to an RSI reading below 30 as “oversold.” In other words, a rally is likely. And we refer to an RSI above 70 as “overbought,” meaning a decline is likely. The S&P 500 Index just went from oversold to overbought in just a month.

Reversals that quick have only happened 10 other times since 1950. That makes today’s action incredibly rare.

More important, the market sees consistently higher gains after these setups.

You might expect stocks to suffer after becoming overbought. But history shows the opposite is likely to happen after a quick RSI reversal. In fact, the market tends to massively outperform the typical 7.9% annual gains we’ve seen since 1950.

Similar instances led to 4.4% gains in three months, 8% gains in six months, and an impressive 12.5% gain over the next year. Those are solid results. Plus, stocks were higher a year later 70% of the time.

This isn’t what we’d typically expect after the RSI shows stocks are overbought. And most folks out there are still looking for reasons to sell.

But the data is clear. It tells us that the recent rally will continue. So don’t get caught on the sidelines as it unfolds.

SPX 12/5

#spx0dte
STO 12/5 $SPX 4500/4520 – 4595/4615 at .85

SPX trades 12/5

#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Dec 5th 4610/4630 call spreads for .10. Condors sold yesterday for 1.45. 4520/4500 put spreads still short. Econ data coming at 9:45 & 10 ET.

SPY Expiration

SPY Dec 04 2023 457 Calls
SPY Dec 04 2023 458 Call
#OnlySpreads

Tiny stock gains

Sold small pieces of all these:
AAP at $54.86
BXP at $64.29
FITB at $30.30
MMM at $100.45
PARA at $15.81
UPS at $156.01
VNO at $27.01
ZION at $39.01
#FormerFallingKnife #GoingToCash

SPX

#spxcampaign
At the morning drop
$SPX STO 12/4 4530/4550 BUPS at 3.84. BTC on the way up at 1.80. Patience might have been golden, but it could turn to coal.

UVXY blip

A tiny bump up off of new lows in UVXY:
Sold UVXY Dec 15 2023 17/13 Bear Call Spreads at $0.14 Credit
Sold UVXY Dec 15 2023 17.5/13.5 Bear Call Spreads at $0.12 Credit
Sold UVXY Dec 15 2023 18/13.5 Bear Call Spreads at $0.12 Credit

Sold UVXY Dec 29 2023 17/14 Bear Call Spreads at $0.19 Credit
#OnlySpreads

SPY

#ShortPuts – New SPY ladder starting in Jan monthly down around the 50 day and the expected move.

Sold SPY Jan 19 2024 435.0 Put @ 2.45
Sold SPY Jan 19 2024 440.0 Put @ 3.19

SPX hedge (SPY hedge hedge)

#BearishDoubleVertical #BullPutSpreads – Taking gains on the long put side. Adding a SPY hedge against the call side of the SPX hedge. Very bullish SPY up to my short call SPX strikes but with very limited downside. Overall still hoping it tanks to 4000. LOL

Sold to Close SPX Jan 19 2024 4400/4300 Bear Put Spread @ 11.10 (“bought” for 3.00 credit)

Leaving the short call side on for now (4750/4760) and selling SPY put spreads to help protect those in another rally.

Sold SPY Jan 19 2024 480/460 Bull Put Spreads @ 16.00

I’ll manage those by planning to take stock at a basis 4 dollars above wherever the stock is at expiration if we tank.

Stuff

Tomorrow: The health of the auto market will be in focus, with AutoZone and Nio, the Chinese electric vehicle maker, set to deliver results.

Wednesday: Earnings reports are due from GameStop and C3.ai, with shares in the latter up roughly 175 percent this year amid investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.

Thursday: Lululemon and Dollar General report results.

Friday: It’s the jobs report. Economists have estimated that employers added roughly 200,000 positions last month, which would keep the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9 percent. Market watchers will be paying particular attention to wage gains and revisions of previous months’ data for an indication of whether the labor market is cooling off, or if October’s tepid report was just a blip.

SPX trades 12/4

#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Dec 4th 4525/4545-4620/4640 condors for 1.15, deltas -.07 +.07, IV 18%

#riskreversal

SPX hedge

#BearishDoubleVertical – New hashtag! LOL Going out to Jan monthly and using the expected move for strike selecions. Trade makes money anywhere below 4750 but the lower the better.

Sold SPX Jan 19 2024 4750/4760 Bear Call Spreads
Bought SPX Jan 19 2024 4400/4300 Bear Put Spreads

Ratio of 5 calls for one put so net credit of 3.00

Economic Calendar 12/4 – 12/8

JOBS report is Friday
Screenshot 2023-12-01 at 12.53.48 PM
Screenshot 2023-12-01 at 12.54.06 PM

Stocks

Closed out my last tiny positions in these for gains
WHR at $114.01
CCI at $117.61
MTB at $130.01

Sold a bit more ZION at $37.01
#FormerFallingKnife

TQQQ,

BTO March 15, 40 calls at 7.35