#ShortPuts – Maybe approaching some resistance here. Taking about 60 percent a few weeks early.
Bought to Close SPY Nov 03 2023 415.0 Put @ 1.35 (sold for 3.00)
Bought to Close SPY Nov 17 2023 405.0 Put @ 1.40 (sold for 3.20)
Category Archives: Uncategorized
TLT
#ShortPuts – Selling against some 86.50 covered calls for this week.
Sold TLT Oct 13 2023 88.0 Puts @ 1.50
Sold TLT Oct 13 2023 89.0 Put @ 2.30
NOC
#BearCallSpreads – Taking 60 percent in a day.
Bought to Close NOC Oct 13 2023 485/490 Bear Call Spread @ .40 (sold for 1.00)
Stopped
#SPX1dte. Neutral trading just not in the cards right now. Closed this morning’s call side for 2.05.
Now I need to worry about the one I sold yesterday. As we’ve been seeing for a third day straight, the move up moves quickly and steadily, then stops when it finds its level. Unfortunately, I just don’t know what that level will be. Yesterday I stopped out but would have been fine. Friday I stopped out and avoided a much bigger loss.
QQQ, I can’t resist.
STO QQQ
October 19, 355 puts at 1.31
October 23, 350 puts at 1.03
October 27, 345 puts at 1.13
TLT
#ShortPuts – Can’t resist. LOL
Sold TLT Nov 17 2023 86.0 Put @ 2.42
SPX part 2
#SPX1dte. Doubling down today. I know, I know, I’ve sworn off pushing boundaries… but I definitely need some catch-up premium in this slump.
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 10th 4260/4280-4385/4405 condors for 1.00, deltas -.05 +.05, IV 25.6%
IV higher in the AM than when I sold yesterday afternoon, as usual. This means I got same premium for a condor that is not much narrower. I will be looking to close one of the legs on each side as soon as premium drops.
SPX-1dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 10th 4245/4265-4390/4410 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 17.9%
SPY
#ShortPuts – Taking half nearly six weeks early.
Bought to Close SPY Nov 17 2023 395.0 Put @ 1.25 (sold for 3.00)
Bought to Close SPY Nov 17 2023 400.0 Put @ 1.60 (sold for 3.32)
NOC
#BearCallSpreads – Taking a shot with a Whiz trade. Just one spread messing around. He went with 480/485 @ 1.30. I bumped it up a strike.
Sold NOC Oct 13 2023 485/490 Bear Call Spread @ 1.00
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped out of call side for 2.00. This was clearly a day i needed to close when the closing was cheap, and not wait for a stop.
WHR
Bought a tiny bit of WHR at 122.00 Div = 5.63%
#SP500 #FallingKnife
SNOW
#ShortPuts – Haven’t been doing a whole lot. Out of town last week for class reunion. Taking some profits on these. Might reload on a drop or move the buying power over to SPY.
Bought to Close SNOW Oct 20 2023 150.0 Puts @ 1.42 (sold for 2.40)
Bought to Close SNOW Oct 20 2023 155.0 Put @ 2.72 (sold for 4.05)
Economic Calendar 10/9 – 10/13
Monthly CPI report is released Thursday morning.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 9th 4210/4230-4345/4365 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 28.2%
UVXY
Bought to close UVXY 10/06/2023 18, 18.5 and 19 Covered Calls at $0.01
Replaced them with UVXY 10/13/2023 18.5 Covered Calls at $0.36 and $0.37
#CoveredCalls
Torpedoed again
#SPX1dte Another week torpedoed by over-trading on a Friday. Just a blistering reversal that I could not get filled on, so chased all the way to close for 7.80.
Third losing week in a row. I set some new rules for myself last Friday and I stuck with them mostly… until today. My first error was selling before the report. I got stopped out on bottom for a small loss. My second error was selling too soon after the open, but even if I had waited this rally would have stopped me. My last error was not being aggressive enough on exiting when my upside stop was hit.
So the new rule I am implementing today is a temporary halt on trading for CPI report, Fed announcement, and Jobs report days. I will not place trades for these days until current volatility comes down and inflation/interest rate concerns significantly diminish.
VXX CVS Calls
Rolled 1 VXX 10/06/2023 23.50 Call to 1 VXX 10/13/2023 24.50 Call at $0.02 Credit.
A bit later, Rolled 1 VXX 10/06/2023 23.50 Call to 1 VXX 10/13/2023 24.50 Call at $0.12 Credit
#OnlySpreads
Rolled CVS 10/06/2023 72.0 Covered Calls to CVS 10/13/2023 73.0 Covered Calls at $0.22 Credit
#CoveredCalls
SPX roll
#SPX1dte Trying a new one: Sold to Open $SPX Oct 6th 4150/4170-4285/4305 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 32.6%, SPX at 4230.
The put side is only 5 points below my last one, since we bounced higher than from when I was stopped out.
TGT D OGN PEAK VZ Stocks
Added a tiny bit of TGT stock at $105.00. Div = 4.18%
Added a tiny bit of D stock at $40.00. Div = 6.51%
Added a tiny bit of OGN Stock at $16.00. Div = 6.90%
Added a tiny bit of PEAK Stock at $17.00. Div = 6.90%
Added a tiny bit of VZ at $30.33. Div = 8.40%
Right now about 20% of the S&P500 stocks yield over 4%
Already stopped!
#SPX1dte Well, should have stuck to my plan of WAITING, but fortunately I only suffered a loss of .40. The low of the morning so far in $SPX futures breeched my stop level, and then we got a decent enough of a bounce to minimize the cost of closing put side. I closed it for 2.00. I will look for another trade AFTER the open; waiting to see it settle into a range.
September Jobs Report
#Jobs — Much higher than expected, countering the Fed’s belief that job market is softening. Plus large upward revisions of previous months.
Gain of +336,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 170K
Unemployment up 0.1 to 3.8%, vs expected 3.7%
U6 unemployment 7.0%, down by 0.1
Labor force participation at 62.8%, unchanged
Average hourly earnings up by 0.2%; 4.2% increase over the year, each 0.1 weaker than expected
July jobs revised up by +79K to +236K
August jobs revised up by +40K to +227K
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Since I was getting strong premium and decent width of 155 points, I sold this 30 seconds before the reports release:
Sold to Open $SPX Oct 6th 4155/4175-4330/4350 condors for 1.60, deltas -.06 +.06
After the report I have downside pressure but still above my stop.
SPXpire
#SPX1dte Today’s trade expired worthless. Waiting for the morning’s Jobs report before placing the next trade.
Rolling out SHOP puts/early assignment
I was assigned overnight on the in the money Oct 20 65 puts. Instead of holding the stock and selling calls I decided to close it out and reinitiated the 65 puts in November:
Sold $SHOP @ 52.15 (12.85) loss
Expiration of 10/20 65 puts = +3.03
Net loss per contract: (9.82)
Total premium previously collected on this position: 6.34, so I’m negative now 3.48 per contract.
Sold Nov 17 65 puts @ 13.25
Looking at the double bottom on the daily chart I’m willing to stay bullish here. If the lows don’t hold and the stock falls below 50.50 I will exit the position without another roll.
Rolling out SNOW puts
With the stock at 151.89, rolling short $SNOW Oct 20 150 puts out to Nov 17 150 puts (42 delta) @ 3.75 credit. The original position was Sep 15 150 puts. With 2 rolls, total credit is now 12.55.
Schwab access to TOS
Got an email this morning to sign up for Think or Swim access. Finally!!
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte After the close I sold $SPX Oct 5th 4170/4190-4320/4340 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.7%
VFC AES AAP
Added a tiny bit of VFC at $16.00. Div = 6.79%
Added a tiny bit of AES at $13.00. Div = 4.63%
Added a tiny bit of AAP at $52.00. Not much of a dividend since they cut it
#FallingKnife #SP500
backing off
#SPX1dte closed that add-on put spread for .70, so breakeven and covered commissions.
FUN FACT:
Over the past 6 trading days, the S&P 500 is down 1% and the utilities sector is down 11%.
The last time that utilities underperformed by 10%+ while the S&P 500 was negative over a 6-day span?
Never over the past 25 years. Today would be the 1st time.
SPX add-on
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 4180/4160 put spreads for .75. Sharp down day yesterday so looking for a bounce day. Futures a bit higher now after trending upward for last 6 hours.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator Tuesday’s close was over 50% higher than the recent $VIX low of 12.68, triggering a Downside Warning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 4125/4145-4290/4310 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4227, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 20.4%
#DSPX Is a new product…
#DSPX
Is a new product CBOE is putting out.
Might be inverse to VIX.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Sold SPY Nov 17 2023 395.0 Put @ 3.00
MMM PARA
Bought a tiny bit of MMM at $89.00. Div = 6.65%
Bought a tiny bit of PARA at $12.00. Not much of a dividend since they cut it
#FallingKnife
T2108
At 15.29, lowest level since last October.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 3rd 4205/4185 put spreads for 1.65. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.
O.T.
I took a small loss this morning and am now 100% in cash. When the bonds go down and yields go higher, it is not good for stocks and we have an enormous deficit that has to be funded.
TLT
#CoveredCalls #SyntheticCoveredCalls – Starting to get some partials so selling the next round now.
Bought to Close TLT Oct 06 2023 91.5 Calls @ .02 (sold for .20)
Sold TLT Oct 13 2023 88.0 Calls @ .61
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd 4185/4205-4330/4350 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.06, SPX at 4276, IV 18.2%
VXX UVXY Calls
Sold 1 VXX 10/06/2023 25.5 Call at $0.45. Second write against an existing long Call.
Sold 1 UVXY 10/13/2023 24/19 Bear Call Spread at $0.52 Credit
TQQQ,
BTO October 13, 37/42 call spread at 1.25 for a small trade. It is trading above the 5 and 8 EMA and the 10 day simple MA and has bounced off the 150 day MA.
Downside risk off
#SPX1dte Closed put side for .15
DG Calls
Sold 1 DG 10/06/2023 113/108 Bear Call Spread at $0.37 Credit
Sold 1 DG 10/06/2023 112/107 Bear Call Spread at $0.57 Credit
#OnlySpreads
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 4200/4220-4335/4355 condors for 1.20, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 27.9%
I didn’t sell on Friday due to government shutdown possibility. Futures opened higher Sunday on the news a resolution was passed, but have since dropped and gone slightly negative. So I’m leaning a bit bearish on my trade.
Economic Calendar 10/2 – 10/6
Fed Chair Powell speaks Monday at 10am ET
September Jobs report Friday at 8:30am ET
CVS VXX Calls
Bought CVS 10/06/2023 75.0 Calls at $0.02 while selling CVS 10/06/2023 72.0 Calls at $0.24
Bought VXX 10/06/2023 31.0 Calls at $0.12 while selling VXX 10/06/2023 26.5 Calls at $0.34
Closed put side
#SPX1dte Bullish day not so bullish, closed put spread for .50 to remove all risk.
Two losing weeks in a row, time for some adjustments. I’m going to go back to selling the afternoon before, 1-dte rather than 0-dte, since there hasn’t been a major overnight move since early July. This will give me better width and less chance of stops being hit. I will still stick to 0-dte on days with major announcements or data releases.
I will also reduce supplemental trades, which were the reason for both of these weeks’ losses being bigger than normal. If I’m have a breakeven or slightly losing week, I will either skip the additional or roll trades, or be much more careful when placing them. Stick to the basics, stop trying to push.
Bullish
SPX stopped
I wrote this yesterday but forgot to press “Post”
#SPX1dte Bought to close call side for 1.45. This week, that’s 1 day without a stop (Monday), and 3 days stops were hit. I have been too gunshy to sell in the afternoon, but we have not seen any large overnight moves. I would definitely get more breathing room on the width if I do this, however, stops would still be hit on at least some of these days. None of the stops have actually breeched my short strike so the stops have ended up being unnecessary, but no matter, need to stick to rules.
I’ve been burned a few times this year by skirting the rules. Even so, when I add up all the premium I DIDN’T need to spend closing spreads that ended up not getting breeched, versus all the money I saved by stopping out per the rules and avoiding breeches, I come out over 10.00 (in premium) ahead on the year. Had I consistently followed the rules and stopped out on all the days, that number would be closer to 40.00.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 28th 4185/4205-4330/4350 condors for 1.25, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 31.5%
The Gartman indicator is working
The Gartman indicator is working
Stopped again
#SPX1dte Closed put side for 2.00. I was trying to close for safety before my stop was hit but wasn’t aggressive enough so never got filled. So instead my stop gets hit and I take a loss. Very tough week but I’m still a bit positive. I may try to sell an aggressive call spread, but a bounce could occur at any time.
SPY,
STO November 17, 395 put at 3.08
TLT
#CoveredCalls #SyntheticCoveredCalls – Bringing these in a couple weeks.
Bought to Close TLT Oct 20 2023 94.5 Calls @ .17 (sold for .71 and .73)
Sold TLT Oct 06 2023 91.5 Calls @ .20
SPY
#ShortPuts – Adding one.
Sold SPY NOV 17 2023 400.0 Put @ 3.32
Denis Gartman is on TV…
Denis Gartman is on TV and he is bearish. BUY,BUY,BUY
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 27th 4210/4230-4330/4350 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 25.1%
Upside Warning finally canceled
#VIXindicator That was the worst Upside Warning since 2001, according to my back testing. It fired on Sept 1st, and never went higher. We’ve had false signals more recently, but most of them are canceled in a couple days. This one managed to last 16 days.
Today’s close should fire a Downside Warning, but that signal has been even weaker than the Upside one in last few years. So have we already found the bottom? We are now back to early June levels, which is where the current head & shoulders pattern on the $SPX daily chart began. It’s one of the most classic reversal patterns, so if it holds to tradition we have farther down to go.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped out of put side for 1.15, so breakeven after commissions.
SPY,
STO, November 3, 400 put at 2.30
SPY
#ShortPuts – Adding.
Sold SPY Nov 17 2023 405.0 Put @ 3.20
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 4240/4260-4370/4390 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 26.58%
TLT
#ShortPuts – Late fill. Moving out to Nov.
Sold TLT Nov 17 2023 91.0 Put @ 3.40
SPX upside risk off
#SPX1dte Closed call side for .35 (by selling $SPX Sept 25th 4375/4355 put spreads for 19.65). My stop was not hit but given recent volatility I’m playing it on the safe side.
TLT
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Rolled calls down into the Friday pop and then added to the short puts today.
Rolled TLT OCT 20 2023 96.5 Calls to OCT 20 2023 94.5 Calls @ .29 credit (.72 total now)
Sold TLT OCT 20 2023 92.0 Put @ 2.90
Economic Calendar 9/25 – 9/29
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 25th 4235/4255-4355/4375 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 25.7%
Going long for tomorrow
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Sept 22nd 4230/4250-4400/4420 condors for .90.
I think chances are good for a big bounce or a big drop on a Friday. I’m also looking to get out of the 2nd half of my Sep 28th 4250/4230 put spread. Just don’t want to wake up with the thing at 6.00 tomorrow.
Both of these moves put me deeper into the hole for the week, but it is also my only shot at any kind of recovery.
SPY
STO SPY Oct27’23 410 PUT @2.00
MELI short put
Sold to open $MELI Oct 20 1120 put (09 delta) @ 5.70 with the stock at 1301.
Risk off
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sep 21st 4315/4295 put spreads for .15
SPY TLT
#ShortPuts – A couple adds.
Sold SPY Nov 03 2023 415.0 Put @ 3.00
Sold TLT Oct 20 2023 93.0 Put @ 2.70
Options Bistro 