#SPX1dte After the close I sold $SPX Oct 5th 4170/4190-4320/4340 condors for 1.10, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 18.7%
Recent Updates Page 68
VFC AES AAP
Added a tiny bit of VFC at $16.00. Div = 6.79%
Added a tiny bit of AES at $13.00. Div = 4.63%
Added a tiny bit of AAP at $52.00. Not much of a dividend since they cut it
#FallingKnife #SP500
backing off
#SPX1dte closed that add-on put spread for .70, so breakeven and covered commissions.
FUN FACT:
Over the past 6 trading days, the S&P 500 is down 1% and the utilities sector is down 11%.
The last time that utilities underperformed by 10%+ while the S&P 500 was negative over a 6-day span?
Never over the past 25 years. Today would be the 1st time.
SPX add-on
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 4180/4160 put spreads for .75. Sharp down day yesterday so looking for a bounce day. Futures a bit higher now after trending upward for last 6 hours.
Downside Warning in effect
#VIXindicator Tuesday’s close was over 50% higher than the recent $VIX low of 12.68, triggering a Downside Warning.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 4th 4125/4145-4290/4310 condors for 1.05, SPX at 4227, deltas -.05 +.06, IV 20.4%
#DSPX Is a new product…
#DSPX
Is a new product CBOE is putting out.
Might be inverse to VIX.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Sold SPY Nov 17 2023 395.0 Put @ 3.00
MMM PARA
Bought a tiny bit of MMM at $89.00. Div = 6.65%
Bought a tiny bit of PARA at $12.00. Not much of a dividend since they cut it
#FallingKnife
T2108
At 15.29, lowest level since last October.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Bought to close $SPX Oct 3rd 4205/4185 put spreads for 1.65. Condors sold yesterday for 1.30.
O.T.
I took a small loss this morning and am now 100% in cash. When the bonds go down and yields go higher, it is not good for stocks and we have an enormous deficit that has to be funded.
TLT
#CoveredCalls #SyntheticCoveredCalls – Starting to get some partials so selling the next round now.
Bought to Close TLT Oct 06 2023 91.5 Calls @ .02 (sold for .20)
Sold TLT Oct 13 2023 88.0 Calls @ .61
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 3rd 4185/4205-4330/4350 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.06, SPX at 4276, IV 18.2%
VXX UVXY Calls
Sold 1 VXX 10/06/2023 25.5 Call at $0.45. Second write against an existing long Call.
Sold 1 UVXY 10/13/2023 24/19 Bear Call Spread at $0.52 Credit
TQQQ,
BTO October 13, 37/42 call spread at 1.25 for a small trade. It is trading above the 5 and 8 EMA and the 10 day simple MA and has bounced off the 150 day MA.
Downside risk off
#SPX1dte Closed put side for .15
DG Calls
Sold 1 DG 10/06/2023 113/108 Bear Call Spread at $0.37 Credit
Sold 1 DG 10/06/2023 112/107 Bear Call Spread at $0.57 Credit
#OnlySpreads
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Oct 2nd 4200/4220-4335/4355 condors for 1.20, deltas -.05 +.07, IV 27.9%
I didn’t sell on Friday due to government shutdown possibility. Futures opened higher Sunday on the news a resolution was passed, but have since dropped and gone slightly negative. So I’m leaning a bit bearish on my trade.
Economic Calendar 10/2 – 10/6
Fed Chair Powell speaks Monday at 10am ET
September Jobs report Friday at 8:30am ET
CVS VXX Calls
Bought CVS 10/06/2023 75.0 Calls at $0.02 while selling CVS 10/06/2023 72.0 Calls at $0.24
Bought VXX 10/06/2023 31.0 Calls at $0.12 while selling VXX 10/06/2023 26.5 Calls at $0.34
Closed put side
#SPX1dte Bullish day not so bullish, closed put spread for .50 to remove all risk.
Two losing weeks in a row, time for some adjustments. I’m going to go back to selling the afternoon before, 1-dte rather than 0-dte, since there hasn’t been a major overnight move since early July. This will give me better width and less chance of stops being hit. I will still stick to 0-dte on days with major announcements or data releases.
I will also reduce supplemental trades, which were the reason for both of these weeks’ losses being bigger than normal. If I’m have a breakeven or slightly losing week, I will either skip the additional or roll trades, or be much more careful when placing them. Stick to the basics, stop trying to push.
Bullish
SPX stopped
I wrote this yesterday but forgot to press “Post”
#SPX1dte Bought to close call side for 1.45. This week, that’s 1 day without a stop (Monday), and 3 days stops were hit. I have been too gunshy to sell in the afternoon, but we have not seen any large overnight moves. I would definitely get more breathing room on the width if I do this, however, stops would still be hit on at least some of these days. None of the stops have actually breeched my short strike so the stops have ended up being unnecessary, but no matter, need to stick to rules.
I’ve been burned a few times this year by skirting the rules. Even so, when I add up all the premium I DIDN’T need to spend closing spreads that ended up not getting breeched, versus all the money I saved by stopping out per the rules and avoiding breeches, I come out over 10.00 (in premium) ahead on the year. Had I consistently followed the rules and stopped out on all the days, that number would be closer to 40.00.
SPX 1-dte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 28th 4185/4205-4330/4350 condors for 1.25, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 31.5%
The Gartman indicator is working
The Gartman indicator is working
Stopped again
#SPX1dte Closed put side for 2.00. I was trying to close for safety before my stop was hit but wasn’t aggressive enough so never got filled. So instead my stop gets hit and I take a loss. Very tough week but I’m still a bit positive. I may try to sell an aggressive call spread, but a bounce could occur at any time.
SPY,
STO November 17, 395 put at 3.08
TLT
#CoveredCalls #SyntheticCoveredCalls – Bringing these in a couple weeks.
Bought to Close TLT Oct 20 2023 94.5 Calls @ .17 (sold for .71 and .73)
Sold TLT Oct 06 2023 91.5 Calls @ .20
SPY
#ShortPuts – Adding one.
Sold SPY NOV 17 2023 400.0 Put @ 3.32
Denis Gartman is on TV…
Denis Gartman is on TV and he is bearish. BUY,BUY,BUY
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 27th 4210/4230-4330/4350 condors for 1.30, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 25.1%
Upside Warning finally canceled
#VIXindicator That was the worst Upside Warning since 2001, according to my back testing. It fired on Sept 1st, and never went higher. We’ve had false signals more recently, but most of them are canceled in a couple days. This one managed to last 16 days.
Today’s close should fire a Downside Warning, but that signal has been even weaker than the Upside one in last few years. So have we already found the bottom? We are now back to early June levels, which is where the current head & shoulders pattern on the $SPX daily chart began. It’s one of the most classic reversal patterns, so if it holds to tradition we have farther down to go.
SPX stopped
#SPX1dte Stopped out of put side for 1.15, so breakeven after commissions.
SPY,
STO, November 3, 400 put at 2.30
SPY
#ShortPuts – Adding.
Sold SPY Nov 17 2023 405.0 Put @ 3.20
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sept 26th 4240/4260-4370/4390 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 26.58%
TLT
#ShortPuts – Late fill. Moving out to Nov.
Sold TLT Nov 17 2023 91.0 Put @ 3.40
SPX upside risk off
#SPX1dte Closed call side for .35 (by selling $SPX Sept 25th 4375/4355 put spreads for 19.65). My stop was not hit but given recent volatility I’m playing it on the safe side.
TLT
#ShortPuts #CoveredCalls – Rolled calls down into the Friday pop and then added to the short puts today.
Rolled TLT OCT 20 2023 96.5 Calls to OCT 20 2023 94.5 Calls @ .29 credit (.72 total now)
Sold TLT OCT 20 2023 92.0 Put @ 2.90
Economic Calendar 9/25 – 9/29
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 25th 4235/4255-4355/4375 condors for 1.20, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 25.7%
Going long for tomorrow
#SPX1dte Bought to open $SPX Sept 22nd 4230/4250-4400/4420 condors for .90.
I think chances are good for a big bounce or a big drop on a Friday. I’m also looking to get out of the 2nd half of my Sep 28th 4250/4230 put spread. Just don’t want to wake up with the thing at 6.00 tomorrow.
Both of these moves put me deeper into the hole for the week, but it is also my only shot at any kind of recovery.
SPY
STO SPY Oct27’23 410 PUT @2.00
MELI short put
Sold to open $MELI Oct 20 1120 put (09 delta) @ 5.70 with the stock at 1301.
Risk off
#SPX1dte BTC $SPX Sep 21st 4315/4295 put spreads for .15
SPY TLT
#ShortPuts – A couple adds.
Sold SPY Nov 03 2023 415.0 Put @ 3.00
Sold TLT Oct 20 2023 93.0 Put @ 2.70
AMZN
#NAKED CALL
BOT AMZN 22 SEP 2023 132 CALL @.77 NYSE
(net 9.02) this closes can kicking this call!
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to open $SPX Sep 21st 4295/4315-4400/4420 condors for 1.10, delta -.05 +.08, SPX at 4365, IV 23.6%
A bit aggressive on call side. If we just found the bottom then I’ll be stopped out.
VIX awakens
VIX VXX UVXY all up big
Partial risk reversed
#SPX1dte Earlier, Bought to close half of the #RiskReversal put side. Stop not hit yet, but since this is a double position I want to reduce risk while it is cheaper to do so.
BTC $SPX Sep 28th 4250/4230 put spreads for 1.30. Trade entered for a .30 debit on Tuesday.
No trade for today yet. Gun shy after yesterday’s misfire.
Possibly the worst “Upside” Warning since 2001. I’ll write a post about it later today.
SPY
STO SPY Oct27’23 420 PUT @2.15
TQQQ,
STO November 17, 31 puts at 1.03
SPY
#ShortPuts – One add.
Sold SPY Oct 27 2023 425.0 Put @ 2.60
Risky add-on
#SPX1dte Sold: $SPX Sep 20th 4420/4400 put spresds for 1.35, with SPX at 4445, delta -.15, IV 39.1%, Powell still in press conference, 1 hr 15 minutes to close.
SPY
#ShortPuts – Selling the 100 day and 200 day.
Sold SPY Oct 20 2023 435.0 Put @ 3.35
Sold SPY Nov 17 2023 425.0 Put @ 3.45
SPY
Carter Braxton Worth @CarterBWorth
The unforgiving line… versus… the more forgiving line…
Regardless, it’s not good.
Carter Braxton Worth @CarterBWorth
SPX 2.5-hte
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 20th 4385/4405-4505/4525 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.05, IV 38.2%, expected move +/- 24.38
TLT
#SyntheticStock #CoveredCalls – Giving these a liitle room for JP.
Bought to Close TLT Sep 22 2023 95.5 Calls @ .05 (sold for .35 .37 and .38)
Sold TLT Oct 20 2023 96.5 Calls @ .44
No morning trade
#SPX1dte I will consider a trade right before Fed announcement. If width and premium is robust enough, I will trade before, if not I will wait until after.
SPY XBI
#ShortPuts – A few.
Sold SPY Oct 20 2023 425.0 Put @ 2.10
Rolled XBI Sep 22 2023 79.0 Puts to Oct 20 2023 79.0 Puts @ .55 credit (1.45 total now)
Market,
I have covered all my positions and am now 100% in cash at Fidelity so earning interest.I don’t think the FED does anything tomorrow but inflation is still a problem.
Stopped out
#SPX1dte Bought to close put side for 2.60. Now negative on week.
Risk Reversal
#SPX1dte #RiskReversal Inspires by Matt’s trade from yesterday, I used his expiration date but a little narrower on the strikes.
Sold $SPX Sep 28th 4250/4230 put spreads
Bought Sep 28th 4580/4600 call spreads
Net debit -0.25
Double-sized position.
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 19th 4400/4420-4485/4505 condors for .95, deltas -.07 +.06, IV 16.45%
COIN put spread
Sold to open $COIN Oct 20 75/70 bull put spread @ 1.24 with the stock at 82
SPX Risk Reversal I tried…
SPX Risk Reversal
I tried one of Jeff’s trade looking for some move up before the FED release and possibly even beyond:
Sold Sep 28 P 4180/4200; bough call 4585/4605 for a .35 debit
Soggy SOX
SOX is trading right on the huge positive trend line that has been in place since October lows. Note we actually closed below the 100 day moving average. This “hot” space is practically at make or break levels. Watch this closely. Note the 200 day way lower… {from ZeroHedge}
Economic Calendar 9/18 – 9/22
FOMC decision Wednesday at 2pm ET
SPX same day
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Sep 18th 4385/4405-4480/4500 condors for 1.00, deltas -.06 +.07, IV 18.15%
XBI
#ShortPuts – A few.
Rolled XBI Sep 15 2023 79.0 Puts to Sep 22 2023 79.0 Puts @ .35 credit (.90 total now)
SPY
STO October 20, 420 puts ay 1.22
AMZN
#rolling
AMZN roll sept 15 to sept 22/132 call @.27 credit(9.79 so far)
SPY
#ShortPuts – Jumping back in selling at recent lows and the 100 day.
Sold SPY Oct 20 2023 430.0 Puts @ 2.10
Options Bistro 