#Augen
In case you missed it (I did) there was a 3-in-5 Augen signal on Oct 9th. That’s the first signal since Aug 2018–roughly 14 months. It “should” mean that the rally has some legs. However I still watch the rolling 20 day score on 1-standard dev up moves. We were at 6, we’ve dropped to 5….over 6 can mean things are a little hot. The higher the rolling score gets, the more likely for a correction (manic buying).
I only count Augen signals the first time they hit after a 4% or more correction. So multiple Augen signals I don’t count after the first one. It stays in place until a 4% drop (however there was a 2nd Augen 3-5 signal on Oct 19).
Tag Archives: Augen
Boom
#Market One thing about corrections is they can also include face-ripping rallies. This is a huge gap up… the market did what it does best on Friday… shook me out of put spreads which would be doing excellently today had I not ditched them. VIX not dropping too sharply yet, but I’ll be watching what it does during market hours. I have a couple of call spreads in trouble… not sure yet if I should forward roll or reverse roll.
Feb 8 Howdy!
Hey everyone, just wanted to pop in and let you know I’m trading VERY small. Just 1-2 lots of #Fuzzy . Mostly shorts. Fuzzies are very expensive now. It helps to hedge them since hedges are also expensive (credit). But hedging slows them down considerably in movement. I like to get out with 50-100% gains. Where I’m doing best now is scalping /NQ.
I’ve mentioned my ” #Augen Spike Code” in the past (From Jeff Augen’s book The Volatility Edge in Options Trading). It translates price action into standard deviations. It helped me find a crash indicator different from what everyone else was viewing. But I also found an important bottom indicator is when there are 3-out of-5 daily bars with 1-standard deviation up moves. .99 doesn’t count, must be over 1.0. Going back in time w/ the indicator I found anything less than 3-in-5 led to shallow false or short term rallies. So on rally days I’m watching and counting those bars.
Sue
Here’s the code if you want it: http://tos.mx/FnguWH
Options Bistro 