RH earnings analysis

#Earnings $RH reports tonight. Below are details on earnings one-day moves over the last 12 quarters.

Sept. 10, 2019 AC +5.07%
June 12, 2019 AC +15.82%
March 28, 2019 AC -21.96%
Dec. 3, 2018 AC +10.90%
Sept. 4, 2018 AC -13.06%
June 11, 2018 AC +30.54%
March 27, 2018 AC +22.48%
Dec. 5, 2017 AC +0.79%
Sept. 6, 2017 AC +44.75% Biggest UP
June 1, 2017 AC -25.69% Biggest DOWN
March 28, 2017 AC +14.94%
Dec. 8, 2016 AC -18.13%

Avg (+ or -) 18.68%
Bias 5.54%, positive bias on earnings.

With stock at 204.00 the data suggests these ranges:
Based on current IV (expected move into Friday per TOS): 181.93 to 226.07
Based on AVERAGE one-day move over last 12 quarters: 165.90 to 242.10
sed on MAXIMUM one-day move over last 12 Q’s (44.8%): 112.71 to 295.29
Based on DOWN max only (-25.7%): 151.59

Open to requests for other symbols.

#embutterfly

NVDA butterfly

#Earnings Bought Nov 15th 217.5/220/222.5 call #EMButterfly for .19.

Expirations

The Good, Expiring worthless:
$SPX Nov 8th 3040/3060-3110/3130 condors, sold yesterday for .80
$DIS Nov 8th 130/128 put spreads, sold yesterday for .65

The Bad, although not Ugly,
$MNST Nov 8th 59/60.5/62 EM call butterfly, bought yesterday for .205
$HUM Nov 8th EM put and call butterflys, bought for .32 total on Tuesday
First time I tried these, both could have been exited for small profit at one point, but I waited to see if I could get more.

#Earnings #EMButterfly