ADSK Fill
Got a fill on ADSK. This is a 2 part trade. Screen shot is below if you want to load it in to the analyze tab (see caution below)
Part 1: #PutRatioSpread Bought to open 5x Dec 1 121 put, Sold to open 10x 120 put for net credit of .80
Part 2: #CallDiagonal Sold to open 138 call x 5 for 1.06, Bought to open Dec 29 145 call for .91, net credit of .15
A lot of people don’t realize that with #TimeSpreads (like diagonals and calendars) it’s impossible to know what the max profit will be. You cannot trust your blue P/L line in TOS…that line will move up and down based on volatility, and with the long call out in the future–the best you can do is to model an x% vol crush in TOS (15-25% usually) to make sure your trade isn’t killed by lower vol. In the morning, that blue line will have contracted, so what can look like a great trade the day before earnings, can get very deflated upon market open, and many people don’t understand why it’s tricky to work time spreads around a known vol crush. But I’ve found credit diagonals, particularly, to be wonderful add-ons for earnings for increasing range, max profit, and balancing deltas.

The Put Ratio Spread is one of my all time favorite trades. It is a net long-delta trade that can provide a wonderful profit range. Really, the put ratio spread is identical to a Jade Lizard. If you put the two graphs side by side, they are the same. In fact the Jade Lizard creators at Tasty Trade have started doing JL’s using all one side of the option chain; puts for regular, calls for reversed. Put ratio spreads, since they are sold for a net credit, have no upside risk.

The Call Diagonal is a nod to all the bearish fund flow I’ve been watching on ADSK. There are a lot of Dec 120 puts being bought by funds, and the Dec 130 and 140 calls are being sold. So I designed the call diagonal spread around that 140 line.

There is risk on both sides of this trade. TOS is showing break even at 117.88/145.64. In reality that upper break even number will come in quite a bit in the morning. I prefer to consider the risk of a naked put as “long stock assignment”–I never consider it to be undefined risk. The upside of this trade is defined risk, but it’s wide, there will be pain if ADSK jumps over 140.00. Once again, pre-market defense (on a run up) will be buying some shares in after hours.