I’ve changed the background color and included the note in the header… “VIX danger zone entered 11/13.” Since #SPXcampaign is a key strategy followed by multiple members, I’ll alter the site appearance based on different conditions to be aware of.
Monthly Archives: November 2015
It looks like the SPX…
It looks like the SPX 2024 support is trying to hold; Traders are anticipating and buying at 2027 just 3 ticks not to miss the possible up move. TICKs are still below 0 though and the ADSPD is negative still.
Second $VIX signal hit – DANGER ZONE
#SPXcampaign…. well, that sounds dramatic. But we hit 20.06, which is 25% above Wednesday’s close of 16.05. That’s the second signal which means we have entered a Danger Zone. Increasing volatility into a Friday is scary, as Monday could be a follow through. Friday the 13th, no less.
Even though we have been ticking up since the lows (and the $RUT is moving up strongly), we should be cautious for more possible downside. This could be a false warning, but those are rare in the backtesting I have done. I recommend you close put spreads if they are anywhere near your stops. If placing any new put spreads today, please make sure they are as far OTM as possible. We are now on warning until $VIX falls back below Wednesday’s close of 16.05.
$VIX warnings for Monday are 25.60 (100% from 10/28 low) and 22.96 (25% up from Thursday’s close).
$UA Short Puts
On the huge move down this morning, I’m throwing this one out there, taking a chance that the stock won’t be below the 8/24 market panic low at December expiration.
Sold $UA Dec 18 80 puts @ 1.55.
Delta is 23.
IV rank for $UA is currently in the 70th percentile.
Options have pretty good liquidity.
$SPX Not an ideal stop…
$SPX Not an ideal stop on the 2025/2000… got caught in the downdraft, and ended up paying 5.00 to get out. These same day expirations have caught me before. Very dangerous and you have to be aggressive to get out before your stop is hit.
We are pennies away from second $VIX signal at 20.05. If we do not rally back toward flat-on-day, I recommend being careful with any spreads you leave on over the weekend.
SPX, stopped out of today’s…
SPX, stopped out of today’s 2025/2000, closed short, will look to sell longs with next push down.
First $VIX signal hit
We are up 50% from the recent 12.80 low from 10/28. So we are now on notice for a second signal. With one signal fired, we should now proceed more cautiously on put spreads.
$NFLX short puts
Selling some premium to offset short call exposure. Sold $NFLX Nov 27 (weekly) 100 puts @ 1.25.
$ZSL forward split…
#ContangoETFs Now trading at 61.84, which would be 123.68 in yesterday’s dollars. All options positions have doubled in size.
SPX spread rolled
#SPXcampaign Rolling the Dec 11th spread I STOPPED out last night:
Sold to Open $SPX Dec 17th 1890/1865 put spreads for 2.00, 1.5x position size.
$SPX will gap down, but…
$SPX will gap down, but not to much… a bigger gap might be a signal of capitulation, leading to a rip higher. A small gap is less telling, so we’ll have to watch. If you have $SPX spreads hitting stops, be patient in getting your exit, or even wait to see what the morning’s direction will be.
Futures are saying we will open at 18.75, so shy of our next two signal points: 19.20 and 20.05. Watch that area, and watch @prvtrader‘s Fib levels on SPX.
$SPX Two possible areas of support…
Two possible areas of support within today’s reach are 2037-2039 and 2017-2024; below that is 2000 and 1967. The first two are agreement areas between Fib Retracements and Extensions.
SPX took one stop early
Since I had a few spreads threatening if we gap down tomorrow, I closed one before the $3.00 stop was hit.
Bought to close $SPX Dec 11th 1940/1915 put spreads for 2.70. Sold for 1.25 on Monday.
There is one other support…
There is one other support at 2038 that may hold before getting down to the 2023.
SPX call spread, UVXY call closings
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Dec 4th 2170/2195 call spreads for .20. Sold Nov 2nd for 1.25.
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY Dec 18th 80 call for 1.25. Sold for 9.20 avg price in August. Not worth risk when over 80% profit available.
The 38.2% of the move…
The 38.2% of the move from the lows of 9/29 to the highs of 11/3 is at 2023; I won’t be surprised if it comes down to there before the down move is over. The 61.8% is at 1965.2 so be careful.
Just closed the SPX 2045/2035…
Just closed the SPX 2045/2035 trade for tomorrow at break even. Don’t want to risk the possibility of a gap down again tomorrow.
$SPX new lows of the…
$SPX new lows of the day
On my 2045/2035 for tomorrow;…
On my 2045/2035 for tomorrow; I may take it out at the close if I don’t seen buying coming in after 3:00PM ET. The problem is that it is too close and a gap down tomorrow will hurt it. So why risk it?
NXPI and VLO management
#Earnings… got some movement today in stocks I was assigned through earnings plays.
$VLO, was assigned short shares at 65.00. Been selling puts and calls, raising my cost basis. Today closed some Nov 13th 71 calls for .08, and sold a Nov 27th 65 covered put for .55
$NXPI was assigned long shares at 86.00. Yesterday sold Nov 20th 85 covered call for .95, and today a Nov 20th 75 put for .60. Lowering my cost basis by selling premium.
Robert and Mort I see…
Robert and Mort I see the 0.5 support at 2055 then 2038
STO SPX Nov 13 2045/2035…
STO SPX Nov 13 2045/2035 for $2.30 crd. Stop at 2050.30
SPX support at 2055 confluence…
SPX support at 2055 confluence from several Fib-Nodes. It should hold here, if it doesn’t then the next support below it is at 2038 and then 2022 and 2016.
SPX 1-day spread
#SPXcampaign Selling $SPX Nov 13th 2025/2000 put spreads. These expire tomorrow, assuming we won’t go too much lower, so risky… stop at 3.00. I have sold a couple for 1.10, looking for 1.20 for more.
ZSL May call
#ContangoETFs Sold $ZSL May 20 2016 180 call @ 6.50. Highest strike in May.
#SPXcampaign Sell to open $SPX…
#SPXcampaign Sell to open $SPX Dec 11 1900/1875 put spread for 1.30. Getting back in the queue after not opening spreads for couple of weeks.
Closing trades for margin clearance
#ContangoETFs Bought to close $ZSL Nov 20th 150 call for .25. Sold for 6.10 on August 25th
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 13th 1970 puts for .15. Sold as part of 1970/1945 put spreads for 1.35 on Oct 23rd.
TZA calls
#ContangoETFs Sold to open $TZA Dec 18th 50 calls for 1.55.Even on the extreme volatility spike of 8/24 this only topped out at 56.
SPX another call spread closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 27th 2160/2185 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.25 on Oct 28th.
$UVXY calls
Sold Dec 18 70 calls @ 1.08. Taking advantage of the move down in the market to get some positions in December.
SPX call spread close
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 27th 2165/2190 call spreads for .15. Sold as part of an iron condor roll on Oct 23rd.
Good morning
Futures are plummeting… our current $VIX warning signals are 19.11 and 19.20…. so if we get that high both signals would be hit on the same day, meaning we’d enter a Danger Zone. If that happens, look to take profits/stops early on $SPX put spreads and be cautious when selling new ones.
$TDG earnings look to be a beat, so that should open higher and the 200 puts can be closed early.
Welcome to any new members! Please be sure to Reply to Posts with trades, questions, or comments.
Test Post
Hey gang, It’s Kelly. Making my first post to make sure I’m set up properly
This is a test. Thanks,…
This is a test. Thanks, Jeff.
SPX call spread close
#SPXcampaign one minute after the close: Bought to close $SPX Nov 13th 2110/2135 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.20 on Oct 22nd. Was planning to let this expire Friday, but I hadn’t taken off my GTC order yet. It filled right after the bell, so now I can forget about it.
SPX Dec 11th put spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 1920/1895 put spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2075. This is the second and final put spread I’m selling for Dec 11th expiry. I also sold a call spread yesterday, so I need one more call spread to complete the Dec 11th campaign.
KOLD call
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open $KOLD Nov 20th 136 call for 5.60.
I’m underwater on a handful of short calls in this one, so pressing it a bit here, but this strike is at its recent high, and this is juicy premium for only 8 days until expiration. Also selling puts against the calls, waiting for the eventual fall.
Test Post 1
Jeff, thanks for inviting me.
TDG earnings play
#Earnings Sold to Open $TDG Nov 20th 200 puts for 1.40. Never traded this before, but it is not much of a mover on earnings. Over last 12 quarters:
Biggest UP move: 4.2% Biggest DOWN move: -4.4% Average move: 2.3%
These expire NEXT week, and are 9.5% out-of-the-money. IV should drop by at least 10% tomorrow.
If selling naked options, be sure to use an appropriate position size for your account.
Closed TZA calls
#ContangoETFs Bought to close $TZA Nov 20th 50 calls for .12. Sold for 1.50 on Oct 21st.
NXPI covered call
#Earnings #CoveredCalls Sold to Open $NXPI Nov 20th 85 call for .95. This is against the stock I was assigned at 86 on an earnings trade.
SPX bottom picking
#SPXcampaign Working on selling my second put spread for Dec 11 expiry… trying to pick the bottom; now looking at 1910/1885 for at least 1.25
ZSL Dec calls
Sold the highest strike in December. $ZSL 155 calls @ 1.40.
SPX pre-market put spread close
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, bought to close Nov 19th 1925/1900 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Oct 27th.
ZSL forward split
#ContangoETFs Starting on Friday $ZSL will be trading at half its current price, and any positions will be doubled in size.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/proshares-announces-etf-share-splits-203000108.html
Quiet day…
Could be even slower tomorrow on Veteran’s Day.
Welcome to new members coming in today. Feel free to reply to this post if you have any questions about the site or the trades.
SPX Dec 11th call spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Dec 11th 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2082.
SPX campaign PDF now available!
Just click the link at the top of the screen: “SPX Strategy PDF”. Enjoy!
TSLA
BTO TSLA Nov 222.5/212.5 put spread a bear flag on 78 min. $221.84 when I bought spread
BTC SPX DEC1 15(12/4/2015) 2175/2200…
BTC SPX DEC1 15(12/4/2015) 2175/2200 BeCS @.35 hit 20% STO on 11/3/2015
KOLD puts
#ContangoETFs STO $KOLD Nov 20th 105 puts for 2.05. These are against several short calls I’m already short.
$SVXY puts
#VXXGame Using today’s pullback to add positions in a weekly where I didn’t have any.
Sold $SVXY Dec 4 (weekly) 50 put @ 1.55.
NUGT reverse roll
#ContangoETFs #ReverseRoll
Made the mistake of selling some puts too early… but no worries since it is easy to flip these…
BTC $NUGT Nov 20th 30 put for 5.25. Sold for 2.50 on Oct 12th.
STO $NUGT March 50 calls (x2) for 3.10 each.
$NUGT Calls
$NUGT #ContangoETFs – Taking a small shot in a ticker that’s already a big winner the last couple months…
Sold NUGT DEC 11 2015 40.0 Calls @ 1.10
WordPress Mobile Apps
Just thought I’d let everyone know I’ve installed the mobile WordPress app on my Android phone and my iPad. They look and work great!
SPX roll iron condor
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Nov 30th (monthly) 1915/1940/2145/2170 iron condors for 2.00, as a roll from the Nov 13th 2040 spread closed earlier today, 1.5x position size.
I chose Nov 30th expiration as it is not part of the normal weekly strategy, since it is an end-of-month expiration, this time on a Monday. Therefore I had no spreads already in this expiry. I chose an iron condor to balance the risk on both sides, so I could go further OTM on the puts and above all-time highs on the calls.
SPX close call spread
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Nov 13th 2130/2155 call spreads for .25. Closed today to free up some margin space.
S&P Eminis
/ES #Eminis – I’ll go long here or cover shorts if I have any left by then…
SOLD /ES JAN 16 1900 PUT @ 15.25
$OPHT TOS TTM Squeeze
$OPHT Rally mode…
TOS had it in a 5 day squeeze that finally fired long. John Carter says his TTM squeeze indicator will generally run 8 to 10 bars and today is day 11. Hey @Scottto are you smiling?? Wish I had a bigger position. Short 40 and 45 puts for Nov and Dec. The next REGN? Guess we’ll know soon.
$UVXY #VXXGame
$UVXY #ContangoETFs #VXXGame – These should be safe even if we get another August type selloff…sitting on a few short Eminis as a hedge.
Sold 1 UVXY JAN 15 2016 70.0 Call @ 1.60
Sold 1 UVXY JAN 15 2016 75.0 Call @ 1.40
Sold 1 UVXY JAN 15 2016 80.0 Call @ 1.30
Sold 1 UVXY JAN 15 2016 90.0 Call @ 1.05
Sold 1 UVXY JAN 15 2016 95.0 Call @ .95
$ZSL $AGQ and TDA margin
$ZSL $AGQ #ContangoETFs – Since TDA jacked up our margin requirements on ZSL I’ve been using short AGQ calls instead of short ZSL puts. Serves the same purpose for much less margin. Finally paying off…
Min value commission free…
Bought to Close AGQ NOV 20 2015 38.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.06)
SPX freefall! Another spread bites the dust.
#SPXcampaign Well, we knew downside was bound to come… just maybe not all in one day. I put on a couple of aggressive Nov 13th put spreads in recent days to take advantage of non-stop upside. Got stopped out of 2050 spread already, now
Bought to Close $SPX Nov 13th 2040/2015 put spreads for 2.95. $3 stop was hit; waited for bounce to get out cheaper. Will wait before rolling this one.
After this, I have a fair amount of room before other put spreads are threatened.
Current signal levels for a downside warning to take effect are $VIX 17.91 (1-2 day 25% increase), and 19.20 (50% up from swing low). The 17.91 is from Friday’s low, so will be in effect until end of Tuesday.
SPX rolled put spread
#SPXcampaign #Rolling Sold to Open Nov 19th 2010/1985 put spreads for 2.15. This is a roll from put spread stopped earlier today, 1.5x position size.
SPX stop-out
BTC for 3.00.
SPX stop-out
#SPXcampaign Taking a stop on $SPX Nov 13th 2050/2025. It’s difficult to do that at what could be the bottom of the day, but that’s what stops are for. Trying to get out for 2.90 on a bounce.
ZSL call
#ContangoETFs This one keeps rising, which would be scary if I hadn’t seen it die above 120 so many times before.
STO $ZSL Jan 2016 140 call for 3.60
PCLN earnings trade
PCLN earnings trade
Bought to close $PCLN Nov 13th 1650 calls for .05. Sold for 2.40 on Friday.
SPX Dec 11th put spread
#SPXcampaign STO $SPX Dec 11th 1940/1915 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2091. This is the first of two put spread I will sell this week for the Dec 11th expiry.
SPX Dec 11th on deck
This week I’m selling spreads in Dec 11th expiry, and with the down open I will look for a put spread in the first half-hour of trading.
Options Bistro week 2
Another week, another new look. This one should be more permanent. Now, comments appear under each post without having to click through to them. Also, the name of the Member who posted leads each entry, along with a photo or avatar.
Starting this week, Members besides me will be able to post to this blog. To do so requires an invitation from me and each user to register at wordpress.com. To start, I have invited Ramie, Fuzzball, and Steveo. After we get accustomed to using the site with multiple contributors, I will send out invitations to other followers. Stand by for emails and further announcements. In the meantime, please feel free to post your trades, questions, or comments as replies to any of the posts.
And you can always click ‘Home’ at upper left to list all posts and refresh for new ones.
I will also be announcing this site to additional traders, and posting the PDF of the SPX strategy.
Thanks again for being the first members of Options Bistro!
FB closing earnings iron butterflys
BTC $FB Nov 6th 103 call for 4.30
BTC $FB Nov 6th 104 call for 3.25
I collected 8.00 total in premium when selling two iron butterflys, so with these closing trades I am left with .45 in profit.
Options Expiration 11/6/15
Anyone wanting to list their expirations for today can reply to this post with their expirations for today. Have a great weekend, everyone!
One Week In!
Thank you all for being the “beta” group for the first week of OptionsBistro. I am working on several changes you will see by Monday, including a more condensed look to the posts and the ability for users to make entries. There will also be more people, as I will announce the blog to additional groups of traders.
Thanks again, everyone!
VLO rolls
Was assigned short stock last Friday at 65.00, and sold some more calls that went ITM. Rolling out as follows, staying short the stock.
BTC $VLO Nov 6th 70 calls for 1.62. Sold for .40 on Tuesday.
STO VLO Nov 13th 71 calls for 1.60
STO VLO Nov 13th 68 puts for .27
PCLN earnings trade
#Earnings Sold to Open $PCLN Nov 13th 1650 calls for 2.40. This is 14.7% OTM. Only selling calls because premium is much lower for puts this far OTM. Stock is bullish but also a bit extended.
Over last 12 quarters on earnings,
| Biggest UP move: 8.5% | Biggest DOWN move: -8.4% | Average move: 4.7% |
You have to go back 13 quarters, to July 2012, for a -17% down move. And you have to go back to August 2010 for a higher UP move, +21%. That was when PCLN was trading near $300.
Options Bistro 