SPX Chart & VIX Indicator are Updated

Can you say “whipsaw.” That’s what happened to me this week. WAY to many arrows on my chart!

#OptionsExpiration #Quarterlys – one expiration…

#OptionsExpiration #Quarterlys – one expiration today. Big one tomorrow.
XLE(Quarterly) Jun 30 2016 71.0 Calls – (Covered)

UVXY & KOLD calls closed

#VXXGame BTC UVXY July 8th 22 calls for .04. Sold for .60 on 6/10.
BTC UVXY July 8th 25 call for .05 (earlier). Sold for 1.00 on 6/24.

BTC KOLD Aug 18th 265 call for .20. Sold for 14.00 on Jan 19th. Now let with a couple of Aug puts at breakeven, nothing else in KOLD.

NUGT hitting its highest level…

NUGT hitting its highest level since May 2015

$SVXY

With the big move the past few day’s, I’m expecting some profit taking tomorrow possibly some pull back in $SVXY.

BTC Jul 1 $51 put @ $2.60, sold for $1.05. I don’t think this will get out of the money and likely could a bit more in the money tomorrow, so taking it off today. Plan to roll tomorrow if we see some weakness.

BTC Jul 1 $45 puts @ $0.20, sold for $0.80 (not expecting a drop that far tomorrow, but was waaay under water a few days ago so don’t want to see it turn negative while trying to get the very last bit.

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 6th 2160/2185 call spreads for .10. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.30 on June 14th.

SPX calls Stopped and rolled

#SPXcampaign Bought to close July 22nd 2115/2140 call spreads for 8.70. Sold for 1.45 on Tuesday.
Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2010/2035/2165/2190 iron condor for 6.05, 1.5x position size.

Also, Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2100/2125 call spreads for 10.50. Sold for 1.50 on Tuesday. Will wait to roll tomorrow or later.

There is no doubt I made a mistake on Friday and Monday by using #ReverseRoll and #CondorRoll strategies with stopped put spreads. I expected the down move to be at last a few days, not only two, followed by a 100-point rally by Thursday. The #SPXcampaign rules say to roll further out in the same direction, with only some consideration given to reverse or condor rolls. Had I rolled everything into puts, I’d be golden now. As it is, all of my put spreads have been closed and I am very pressured on the call side. Now, at this ridiculously extended level, I have no choice but to sell puts or condors as my margin will not allow more call spreads of sufficient size. There is little sense to be made of this market; all you can do is “roll” with it.

Are we there yet?

My kids used to ask that question all the time when traveling, so have to ask it now in relation to the market. Just wondering how much higher we go before a pullback. Looking at other metrics today shows larger inflows into consumer staples, utilities, and higher dividend payers…all defensive things. A flight to safety, maybe? We’ll see.
Any thoughts appreciated as I contemplate what to do with my SPX call spreads.

SVXY Covered Call

Sold $SVXY Dec 16 65 call @ 3.20

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #Weeklys #IRA -…

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #Weeklys #IRA – Sold Jul 29 2016 60.0 Calls @ 0.50 with the stock at 48.83.
Sold these against stock I acquired via Put assignment Friday at 44.50

SPX puts closed

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 29th 1775/1750 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 last Friday.
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 1700/1675 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.35 on Monday.
That clears me of all put spreads. Certainly did not expect such a massive and quick reversal. I am now nursing too many call spreads, but will keep rolling up until we get a pullback.

UVXY put

#VXXGame STO UVXY July 29th 9 put for 1.40

New all-time lows in UVXY

First time we’ve had a new low since June 7th. VXX still a dollar above its all-time ow from June 7th, which shows the contango power of the UVXY.

$SPY I have July 15,…

$SPY I have July 15, 213 and 216 wayward long calls left over from spreads after closing the short legs following Brexit. I sold 2, 210 calls expiring tomorrow for .25 each, will be watching closely.

SVXY Covered Call

Sold $SVXY Dec 16 70 call @ 2.15

$SVXY #CoveredCalls – Sold SVXY…

$SVXY #CoveredCalls – Sold SVXY Sep 16 2016 60.0 Calls @ 2.30 with the stock at 48.92.
Adding to my position.

$UVXY #ShortCalls #ClassicVXXGame – Bought…

$UVXY #ShortCalls #ClassicVXXGame – Bought to close 1 of my UVXY Jan 19 2018 115.0 Calls @ 1.50.
Originally sold this on 6/13 @ 3.60.
I’m sure these can be resold in the future with 568 days left until expiration.

Backtesting IC in SPX – TT

Yesterday TT did a backtest on Iron Condors on the SPX.
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/daily_recaps/2016-06-29/episodes/backtesting-iron-condors-in-spx-06-29-2016
Watch how they do it.

SVXY Covered call

STO December 64 call@3.50

WMT pushing up after Squeezes fired.

There were squeezes in the 39, 78, and weekly charts which fired long.
The daily chart hasn’t fired yet, so I bought some Jul 8th 72 Calls this morning for $1.05.

SPY Analysis

https://www.tradingview.com/x/tp8f57Uy/

SPX expiration

#SPXcampaign Expired last night: $SPX July 29th 1950/1925 put spreads. Sold for 1.34 (avg price) last Friday.

SPX campaign Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated

Interesting comment on Fast Money from Tom Lee, who makes a lot of accurate market calls. He said their research showed that since 1940, all 10 times the market has gone down over 5% in 2 days, while also being above the 200-ma when it started, the markets recovered within six months, with an average up move of 10%. If that 100% performance sustains, we will see new highs by the end of the year.

UVXY call spreads

Took these off today for a 3 day quickie…

Bought to Close UVXY AUG 19 2016 20/30 Bear call spreads @ .43 (sold for 1.05)

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #VXXGame – Sold…

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #VXXGame – Sold SVXY Sep 16 2016 60.0 Calls @ 2.20 with the stock at 48.47 after hours

SPX calls rolled

#SPXcampaign #Rolling Well it turned out to be a mistake doing a #ReverseRoll for stopped puts on Monday. Going farther out in time for this roll so I can be at a comfortable distance OTM.

Bought to close $SPX July 8th 2075/2100 call spreads for 9.60. Sold for 3.00 on Monday.
Sold to Open $SPX August 18th 2130/2155 call spreads for 6.35 (1.5x position size).

$PCLN June 27 sold a…

$PCLN June 27 sold a 1040/1025 BuPS for 1.26 thinking PCLN shares had overreacted (I think RK pointed that out-thank you), bought back today for .22

$VXX bought back Aug. 19…

$VXX bought back Aug. 19 VXX 20 call for .61, sold Monday for 1.61. Thank you VXX game proponents

NUGT roll out

#ContangoETFs Rolling breached short call into a strangle:
BTC NUGT July 15th 120 call for 15.40 (sold for 11.00 on June 3rd)
STO NUGT August 5th 80/150 strangle for 15.80

Also, new position:
STO NUGT August 19th 175 call for 10.70 (highest strike)

AMZN call spread

AMZN moving higher close to recent  high. sold Aug 820/840 calls for $2.05 when AMZN at 716.5.

10%  ROI.

What are the SPX Campaign Rules?

A seen a few post where the term spx campaign rules was used. What are said rules? Can anyone share?  Thanks in advance. 

SKEW history

Below I’ve compiled a daily chart of the SKEW since 2013 to show how accurate it can be. Most peaks in the SKEW (above 140) are followed by corrections. We don’t always get a signal; the August 2015 crash was preceded by no SKEW peak. But when it does peak, a correction almost always follows. Slightly less reliable but still significant are signals below 120… we usually get a strong rally. 10/15/14 and 9/30/15 are good examples, with rallies beginning the very same day that brought us back to pre-correction highs.
SKEW history

Iron Fly. Last week a…

Iron Fly. Last week a few of us sold a 2090/2100/2100/2110 iron fly expiring last Friday. This genius inadvertently sold it for June 29(I can read and count, usually). If this rally continues into tomorrow, I could end up making money in which case I’ll swear off beer and volunteer at a soup kitchen or two, well maybe the soup kitchens.

SPX call spread sold

Sold another call spread: Aug 5 2150/2160 @ 1.15 when SPX at 2063

#spxcampaign

SPX Fib resistance

Today’s peak in SPX (thus far) is the 61.8 Fib retracement from the Pre- and Post-Brexit plunge. That could be a potential resistance level from going higher. Or if we break above 2070, it isn’t.

SVXY covered calls

Replacing a few I closed earlier this week.

Sold SVXY JUL 15 2016 53.0 Calls @ 1.25

#CoveredCalls

$NUGT pre-split strikes

@Iceman…I’ve seen you do this type of thing before so I was wondering what your thoughts were about something like January 35 calls (pre 1:10 reverse split) if you could get let’s say 1.00 for them. That would be the equivalent of 10.00 for 350 strike in January. Normal chain only goes up to 185.

$SVXY

BTC $SVXY Jul 8 $67 calls @ $0.05

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2155/2180 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2066.

SVXY

Covered calls. As the market grinds higher I am selling calls against the stock I was assigned last week.

STO December 71 call @2.00
STO December 66 call@2.90
STO December 65 call@3.10

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #VXXGame – since…

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #VXXGame – since I added a bunch of long stock last week and am still short 44.5 and 45 Puts for this week, and next, I added the following positions:

Sold SVXY Jul 1 2016 52.0 Calls @ 0.15 with the stock at 47.39 – these expire Friday
Sold SVXY Jul 1 2016 52.5 Calls @ 0.15 with the stock at 48.00 – these expire Friday

Sold SVXY Jul 8 2016 53.5 Calls @ 0.55 with the stock at 47.91 – these expire next Friday in a short trading week

So $NUGT is around its highs

Matching the levels it reached during the last peak on May 2. I thought I’d take a look at the same time period for $GDX. Since May 2, $GDX is about 6% higher, while $NUGT is 0%. Obviously the momentum is with this name right now but the triple-leveraged drag shows pretty significantly even over a short time period like this because of all the volatility. I’ll be selling puts on the next pullback to offset all my short delta in this but in general, long term out of the money calls (when the premium is there) have an edge. I sold some Jan 185s earlier. Will look for higher premium if NUGT keeps moving up.

$UVXY $SVXY

To tag onto Iceman’s chart yesterday. Today $UVXY already dropped below where it was at the close last Thursday. $SVXY on the other hand is still more than $10 below where it was at.

NUGT

Sold December 70 put@14.00

Put spreads closed this morning

#spxcampaign
Bought to close July 14th 1850/1825 puts for .20. Sold June 16th as part of iron condor for 2.45.
Bought to close July 14th 1860/1835 puts for .20. Sold June 16th for 1.50.
Bought to close July 22nd 1800/1775 puts for .20. Sold Monday as part of iron condor for 2.70

NUGT Jan call

Sold $NUGT Jan 20 185 call @ 29.00. Highest strike.
Premium is a bit higher now.

$SVXY

STO July 8 $52.5 calls @ $0.65

Next week is a short week, likely very light volume and I think the market and $SVXY are going to run into some resistance. Easy to roll if needed. Would rather be rolling $SVXY calls than puts right now.

$UVXY #ShortPuts – added these…

$UVXY #ShortPuts – added these to my short put portfolio
UVXY JUL 8 2016 8.0 Puts @ 0.20 – short trading week next week
UVXY JUL 29 2016 7.0 Puts @ 0.32

$UVXY #ShortCalls #ClassicVXXGame – Bought…

$UVXY #ShortCalls #ClassicVXXGame – Bought to close 1/3 of my UVXY Jan 19 2018 115.0 Calls @ 1.75.

Originally sold these on 6/13 @ 3.60.

I’m sure these can be resold in the future with 569 days left until expiration.

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #VXXGame – Sold…

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #VXXGame – Sold SVXY Sep 16 2016 60.0 Calls @ 2.00 with the stock at 47.21

#SPXcampaign SOLD 20 JUL 16…

#SPXcampaign SOLD 20 JUL 16 2130/2155 CALL @1.30 CBOE

SPX put spread closed

BTC SPX Jul 8 1950/1940 for 0.30.
Originally sold for 0.70.
Glad to get out at above 50% max profit a week early. I agree with Jeff, I have a bearish sentiment and glad to get this spread closed. I see no reason this market is going to push to a new high soon. What would be the catalyst?

SVXY

Sold to open December 69 covered call @2.25

SKEW hits all-time high

The SKEW index was created by CBOE in 2011 to help deal with risk of large down moves in SPX. It makes only one reading per day, and yesterday’s reding of 153.66 was the highest since they started publishing readings. (see more inf o on SKEW here: http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/introduction.aspx)

Typically, reading above 135 are bearish, and readings below 120 are bullish.

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #VXXGame – yesterday…

$SVXY #CoveredCalls #VXXGame – yesterday I covered about 20% of my overly large short Sep 60.0 Call position on SVXY at 0.95 and at 0.90.

Today I changed my mind and decided to re-establish the position. It occurred to me that I just added to my long stock position Friday via Put assignments, and might do so again this week if SVXY goes back down below 44.50.

Sold SVXY SEP 16 2016 60.0 Calls @ 1.55 / 1.60 / 1.65.

Not bad for a 24 hour turnaround.

$UVXY #ShortPuts #VXXGame – I…

$UVXY #ShortPuts #VXXGame – I was obviously way too early on my previous trades but these are better.
Sold UVXY JUL 22 2016 7.5 Puts @ 0.32
Sold UVXY JUL 15 2016 8.0 Puts @ 0.32
Sold UVXY JUL 1 2016 9.5 Puts @ 0.22 – these expire Friday unless we see a new low in UVXY

SPX chart and VIX Indicator are updated

Dead cat bounce or did we already bottom?

SOME TRADES:

$UVXY BTC 7/1/16 18.0 CALLS @.08, 20.0 CALLS @.05
$UVXY BTC 7/8/16 20.0 CALLS @.16, 21.0 CALLS @.12, 22.5 CALLS @.09

Is BRexit scare over ?

All of a sudden the SPX took flight…what happened?

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2175/2200 calls for .10. Sold for 1.90 on June 13th.

SVXY covered calls

STO August 19, 57 call@1.15

December 60 call @3.20

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 2180/2205 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.35 on June 20th.

$UVXY #ShortPuts #ScalpTrades – sold…

$UVXY #ShortPuts #ScalpTrades – sold the following for this Friday’s expiration
Sold UVXY Jul 1 2016 9.5 Puts @ 0.05
Sold UVXY Jul 1 2016 10.0 Puts @ 0.11
Sold UVXY Jul 1 2016 10.5 Puts @ 0.20
If I can goose SVXY up to 45 by Friday it would be a big help

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 2100/2125 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2023. I am more comfortable being short calls than puts, even below the highs, because rolling will be easy if we continue to rally.

SVXY

STO August 19, 55 call @1.50

STO September 16, 60 calls @1.35

Selling calls against the last week assignments

$VXX $SVXY $UVXY – YTD…

$VXX $SVXY $UVXY – YTD performance on Volatility stocks.
This is why we make money selling calls on all of these
ClwRdqIWAAAJ_dg

$SVXY

BTC July 1 $40 puts for a small profit. Not trusting the market right now. Today’s bounce has anemic volume and seems to be drifting lower.

SOME TRADES:

$WLL BTO STOCK @9.0
$WLL STO 7/1/16 9.0 CALLS @.45 A buy/write
$WLL STO 7/1/16 8.50 PUTS @.20
$DUST STO 7/1/16 9.50 CALLS @.25

#mombocombo

$VIX #Brexit – an interesting…

$VIX #Brexit – an interesting read after the fact. Volatility is falling pretty hard now.

How Did the Brexit Timeline Affect Volatility?

$DB Duetsche Bank Bought a…

$DB Duetsche Bank Bought a July 15, 15 put for 1.35. It has been slammed, rallied a little today and seems to be heading south again.

$UVXY Sold July 8 11.50…

$UVXY Sold July 8 11.50 put for .90

Based on prior experiences and…

Based on prior experiences and losses, I am very causious about selling any call spreads after this pullback. It can comeback very forcefully. Planning to sell Call Spread if I get a decent premium above all time high’s 2140.

#Markets #FallingKnife #ShortPuts – I…

#Markets #FallingKnife #ShortPuts – I sold all the following yesterday. Only the UAL position was sold way too early.

Most of these are scheduled to expire Friday.

$AAL Jul 1 2016 25.5 Puts @ 0.44
$CF Jul 1 2016 23.5 Puts @ 0.56
$DUST Jul 1 2016 9.0 Puts @ 1.05
$FL Jul 15 2016 50.0 Puts @ 0.55
$IBB Jul 1 2016 235.0 Puts @ 1.30
$UAL Jul 1 2016 39.0 Puts @ 0.59

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 8th 2175/2200 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.65 on June 6th. Closed for margin purposes.

Out KOLD

I just closed my last position in this name and now I’m out of it completely for the first time in about a year.

Bought to close $KOLD Aug 19 115 call @ 10.00. Sold for 55.80 as part of a rollout on 5/10. After 5 rolls (including an early assignment) my overall profit on this position was 5.59.