Good morning from Seattle

#Markets Opening was highest $TICK since Feb 2018. Is it over?

HRL

BTC January 35 puts @ 1.20, sold yesterday at 1.50, decided I did not like the trade. I can’t give any reason but, I am just nervous about this market right now. Something does not feel right to me at this moment.

#markets

2800, hello again

#Markets First time hitting 2800 since March 13th.

Adding short protection

Layering in some short protection but carefully as this selloff is contained so far and the obvious suspects like GOOGL and AMZN are not participating.
Bot SPY Jul20 275p @ .97 x5
Bot VIX Jul25 13/15 cds @ .84 x3
#markets

Stall

#Markets… looks like major indices will be closing lower than the open….

Good morning, on the road, Eugene to Sausalito

#Markets Trending higher off the overnight lows… continuing salvos in the trade war keeps knocking us back overnight and then we creep higher into the close. Which way will it break? VIX topped at 14.68 a few hours ago, short of another warning. I am staying long, watching for some short term shorts if given the chance. $AAPL taking a hit pre-market, but not seeing much else under strain (except AMAT and OLED, smaller, annoying positions).

I’ll be in and out today. Probably trading from the car if I can get my stepson to drive!

Marco Rubio dip?

#Markets Marco Rubio is a reported “no” on the current plan. Mike Lee is undecided. If that’s what’s driving us down today, I say BTFD.

Futures UP

#Markets #SPXcampaign Jobs report surging the markets higher. If the day remains positive and VIX drops, we are setting up for a new Upside Warning next week. This could mean a rally toward 2700 into the end of the month, which is typical for December. I’ll be watching to once again #ReverseRoll call spreads and get long.

CNBC saying sell

#Markets
Guys on Fast Money talking about a lot of selling happening to realize gains in 2017 before next year and the new tax plan. May be reason for drop in last 25 minutes.

Two intraday blow-off tops?

#Markets Another afternoon of weakness.

Unrelated to that, but funny:

The difference between how technical analysis is taught vs. what really happens:

Screen Shot 2017-12-05 at 12.12.02 PM

Sell the news

#Markets I agree with Paul’s sentiment and I am currently playing it this way. Seems once the bill is passed (assuming it will be), that the euphoria will abate and we’ll be stuck with negative headlines from the Mueller investigation. Right now I think we may be entering more of a consolidation phase, or slower trickle up, until the final bill is passed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/jim-paulsen-buy-stocks-before-final-tax-cut-passage-but-sell-after.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

#Markets – this gauge is at new highs
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

#Markets – Gartman Stakes His…

#Markets – Gartman Stakes His Reputation That “The Bull Market Has Come To An End”

btfd

#Markets –

#Markets
btfd

#Markets – I’ve BEEN AWAY…

#Markets – I’ve BEEN AWAY FROM THE MARKET. AMZN and GOOG down almost 40
SVXY pulls back from a new high
What happened?????

Upside Warning relative performance

#VIXIndicator #Markets
I’ve created a chart to compare the performance of Upside Warnings with the correction that precedes it. The bigger the correction, the bigger the subsequent rally in the SPX. This is no surprise, but I wanted to see how it charted from all Upside Warnings since 1999. The mini-correction we just had was exactly 3.00%, which is tied for smallest with one in 2013. So the move up we should expect now is relatively minor. The first bar on the chart is that 2013 example… SPX increased 3.44% from the close of the Upside Warning day to the next SPX high. A 3.44% move this time would be a high of 2469.58.

Let me know if you have questions!

Screen Shot 2017-04-28 at 8.24.48 AM

(note the only time there was a negative performance were the days leading up to 9/11/2001)

VIX Indicator signal fired

#VIXIndicator #Markets #spxcampaign
In the pre-market, the VIX peaked at 15.11 (so far) this morning and has fired a downside signal. This cancels the Upside Warning that’s been in effect since November. If we reach 16.20 today, that will fire a Downside Warning.

I will be rolling some put spreads today, selling some call spreads, and being cautious on placement of any new put spreads.

#Markets #Volatility #Gold – levels…

#Markets #Volatility #Gold – levels to watch – previous turning points from late Feb ….
$SVXY / $UVXY – the last SVXY bottom was 118.39 while UVXY topped at 23.85.
$NUGT /$DUST when gold futures touched 1260 (now at 1245), NUGT peaked at 12.28 while DUST bottomed at 26.30

My opinions fwiw:
UVXY is unlikely to reach the prior peak until after SVXY violates its prior low – selling UVXY “Weekly” calls in the 30’s seems like a winning move vs. SVXY Puts. They can always be rolled.

DUST is much closer to it’s previous low than NUGT is from its high. A 28% move in NUGT would just about do it, but DUST would drop 28% to 21, over 5 points below its last bottom. I’m hanging on to my short DUST calls for June (65) and Jan 2018 (90) until that happens. I will continue to roll down DUST puts as needed.

Friday Parting Notes

#markets

Trin opened at 1.01, closed at 1.81…look for a rally Monday
Vix opened at 12.5, coasted downhill as the mkts faded the open gaps
P/C opened at 1.13 for a high, and finished at 0.94..tends to lean bullish for monday…

YM closed the 80 point opening gap the last 30 minutes, to close at 20777, after opening at 20711..a most bullish comeback…

Have a great WE…

#Markets #Options #Weeklys – two…

#Markets #Options #Weeklys – two 4 day trading weeks in a row coming up.
The markets are closed the next two Mondays

VIX drop

#Markets With the small pop up in VIX from Dec 12-14, and now it’s three-day drop, it signals a good chance for another bull run. Probably Dow 20,000 today; maybe SPX 2300 by New Year’s.

Observations after the close

#markets

Stocks have outperformed bonds by 6.75 percentage points during the last 20 trading days.

The S&P 500 is 5.33% above its 125-day average.

During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 44.33% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios.

The Fear/Greed Indicator is at 88, indicating Extreme Greed and High Risk…

SPX is up nearly 70 points since the reversal on 12/5….

Trade safely

Bullish VIX Indicator

#VIXIndicator #markets
On one hand, the VIX is very low and some bounce should be expected. But on other hand, today could be considered a “mini” Upside Warning, with three consecutive days under the 78.6% Fib line from the 11/21 low to the 12/1 high. I believe we are in for continued move up, although I would be surprised if the velocity is very strong.

VIX Indicator & SPX Chart have been updated

#Markets The Upside Warning continues as we hit a new VIX low at the close.

Econ calendar week of 12/5/16

#Markets Blue stars indicate “market-moving indicators.” Pretty light schedule this week.

screen-shot-2016-12-05-at-6-13-24-am

UVXY has split… time for volatility?

#VXXGame #markets We only get $30 out of the bugger? Why not a 1:10 split? Well, then there’s this, so maybe UVXY can hit 60 soon. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3991060-nirp-crash-indicators-stats-indicate-volatility-increase-week-ending-july-29

#Markets – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-11/greed-and-fear-index-soars-highest-2014

#Markets – http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-11/greed-and-fear-index-soars-highest-2014

#Markets #FallingKnife #ShortPuts – I…

#Markets #FallingKnife #ShortPuts – I sold all the following yesterday. Only the UAL position was sold way too early.

Most of these are scheduled to expire Friday.

$AAL Jul 1 2016 25.5 Puts @ 0.44
$CF Jul 1 2016 23.5 Puts @ 0.56
$DUST Jul 1 2016 9.0 Puts @ 1.05
$FL Jul 15 2016 50.0 Puts @ 0.55
$IBB Jul 1 2016 235.0 Puts @ 1.30
$UAL Jul 1 2016 39.0 Puts @ 0.59

#Markets Not seeing much to…

#Markets

Not seeing much to do today. Dollar really isn’t doing much but gold strong and miners strong. $NUGT not at a good level for selling puts or calls at the moment. Won’t sell any calls until it shows some signs of peaking. We’ll see what happens if it gets near $120. It is now kind of too high to get any premium for puts, so risk/reward not there. So, I’m going to take the rest of the day off and go fishing.

I believe the S&P is back to being negative on the year. Don’t have access to CNBC right now, but if it is negative, I’m sure they are making a big deal about it.

I only have 1 remaining position expiring today. $NUGT $60 puts. I’m pretty sure that one is going to be safe

Have a great weekend everyone.

#Markets TLT really spiking as…

#Markets TLT really spiking as SPX falls back.

#Markets – remember that the…

#Markets – remember that the markets are closed on Monday. Only a 4 day trading week to bleed premium away faster

#Markets – Interesting reading this…

#Markets – Interesting reading this morning on ZH. While the S&P 500 closed the day higher by nearly a half of a percent, there were just 810 Advancing Issues on the NYSE vs. 2326 Declining Issues. As a percentage of the total, the Advancing Issues equated to just 25.8% of issues. If that sounds low, you are correct. Going back to 1965, it is in fact the 3rd lowest percentage of Advancing stocks of ANY day that the S&P 500 closed higher. In other words, out of 6,702 Up days since 1965, yesterday ranked 6,699th in terms of breadth.