#Markets – Gartman Stakes His Reputation That “The Bull Market Has Come To An End”
#Markets – I’ve BEEN AWAY FROM THE MARKET. AMZN and GOOG down almost 40
SVXY pulls back from a new high
I’ve created a chart to compare the performance of Upside Warnings with the correction that precedes it. The bigger the correction, the bigger the subsequent rally in the SPX. This is no surprise, but I wanted to see how it charted from all Upside Warnings since 1999. The mini-correction we just had was exactly 3.00%, which is tied for smallest with one in 2013. So the move up we should expect now is relatively minor. The first bar on the chart is that 2013 example… SPX increased 3.44% from the close of the Upside Warning day to the next SPX high. A 3.44% move this time would be a high of 2469.58.
Let me know if you have questions!
(note the only time there was a negative performance were the days leading up to 9/11/2001)
#VIXIndicator #Markets #spxcampaign
In the pre-market, the VIX peaked at 15.11 (so far) this morning and has fired a downside signal. This cancels the Upside Warning that’s been in effect since November. If we reach 16.20 today, that will fire a Downside Warning.
I will be rolling some put spreads today, selling some call spreads, and being cautious on placement of any new put spreads.
#Markets #Volatility #Gold – levels to watch – previous turning points from late Feb ….
$SVXY / $UVXY – the last SVXY bottom was 118.39 while UVXY topped at 23.85.
$NUGT /$DUST when gold futures touched 1260 (now at 1245), NUGT peaked at 12.28 while DUST bottomed at 26.30
My opinions fwiw:
UVXY is unlikely to reach the prior peak until after SVXY violates its prior low – selling UVXY “Weekly” calls in the 30’s seems like a winning move vs. SVXY Puts. They can always be rolled.
DUST is much closer to it’s previous low than NUGT is from its high. A 28% move in NUGT would just about do it, but DUST would drop 28% to 21, over 5 points below its last bottom. I’m hanging on to my short DUST calls for June (65) and Jan 2018 (90) until that happens. I will continue to roll down DUST puts as needed.
Trin opened at 1.01, closed at 1.81…look for a rally Monday
Vix opened at 12.5, coasted downhill as the mkts faded the open gaps
P/C opened at 1.13 for a high, and finished at 0.94..tends to lean bullish for monday…
YM closed the 80 point opening gap the last 30 minutes, to close at 20777, after opening at 20711..a most bullish comeback…
Have a great WE…