Jeff 5:40 am on Friday, February 4, 2022
Tags: Jobs ( 98 )

January Jobs report

#Jobs — Above expectations for a change; wage growth strong, labor participation up, Nov & Dec jobs revised upward by ridiculous amounts.

Gain of +467,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 150K
Unemployment at 4.0%, up by 0.1 (vs. 3.9 estimate)
U6 unemployment at 7.1%, down by 0.2
Labor force participation 62.2%, up by 0.3
Average hourly earnings up 0.7%, vs. 05 estimate

December jobs revised up by +311K to +510K
November jobs revised up by +398K to +647K

matt0311 6:17 am on Friday, February 4, 2022

can’t remember the revisions doubling up. Both December and November are remarkable to me.
- geewhiz112 6:31 am on Friday, February 4, 2022
  
  Partly due to annual benchmarking adjustments? Does that sound manipulative?
  
  December, which initially was reported as a gain of 199,000, went up to 510,000. November surged to 647,000 from the previously reported 249,000. For the two months alone, the initial counts were revised up by 709,000. The revisions came as part of the annual adjustments from the BLS that saw sizeable changes for many of the months in 2021.
  
  Those changes brought the 2021 total to 6.665 million, easily the biggest single-year gain in U.S. history.
  
  “The benchmark revisions helped the numbers a bit just because it moved out some of the seasonal factors that have been at work. But overall the job market is strong, particularly in the face of omicron,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. “It’s hard to find a weak spot in this report.”
  - matt0311 6:49 am on Friday, February 4, 2022
    
    thanks!
  - Jeff 7:35 am on Friday, February 4, 2022
    
    I think it is more to do with the difficulty in conducting the surveys and measurements during the pandemic. Things just out of whack.
bikeeagle1 7:13 am on Friday, February 4, 2022

I’m guessing the Fed will see this as a green light for bigger and/or faster rate hikes. You can see the market pricing that in with the rally on the TNX chart and the drop on IEF & TLT.
Option Iceman 1:24 pm on Friday, February 4, 2022

https://mishtalk.com/economics/bls-job-revisions-show-every-job-report-in-2021-was-total-garbage

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