Anybody back up the truck on this one last week? Wow!
Author Archives: fuzzballl
SPX spread adjustment
Rolled short Aug 31 1900 puts up to 2000 for 2.65 credit. Gradually rolling up over last few weeks. Doubt if I go any higher since this is now sitting at the Brexit low.
NEM
With all of our NUGT positions, it will be interesting to see what Newmont reports after the close today…
NFLX recap
Posted yesterday:
Sold the weekly 89/99/99/109 for 7.30 yesterday for earnings.
Obviously a bigger move than the market expected. By staying small I can afford to mess with this for awhile. At the open today, I sold the long 89 puts at 3.65 (too early) giving me a total premium received for the trade of 10.95. This would give me the stock at a cost basis of 88.05. I’ll be looking for a rally to this number to close this week or start looking to sell covered calls beyond this week.
Update:
By staying small I’ve been able to adjust and extend duration. Trade is now back to even and with DAN over at OMM putting on a long trade this morning I’m feeling like there’s a decent chance to get out fairly profitably.
NUGT again
Little bounce there so:
Sold NUGT JUL 29 2016 160.0 Call @ 3.50
Looking to add put side soon…
NUGT adjustment
Sitting on an August 125/200 strangle from a rollout that only brought in 2.90 net after the roll. Making a delta adjustment and adding some premium to make it seem more worthwhile to hold this thing.
Rolled the 200 call down to 170 for 4.15 credit. Still above all time high bringing total strangle premium to 7.05…
Still looking to add some shorter term calls if the chance comes along….
NUGT…getting out of the way for now
Bought to Close NUGT JUL 22 2016 135.0 Put @ 6.10 (sold for 3.10)
Bought to Close NUGT JUL 29 2016 190.0 Call @ .78 (sold yesterday for 3.40)
38 cent loss on these so combined with the closing yesterday of this week’s call for a 2.20 gain still a decent week. Not going to ride the put side of this thing into a smoking hole so happy to be out with good profit. Looking to re-sell some calls on a bounce later…
IBB…getting back in the game
#401k was all cash so dipping a toe back in to this fairly reliable ticker…(so far). Starter positions small.
Sold IBB Aug 19 2016 260.0 Put @ 4.00
Sold IBB Sep 16 2016 250.0 Put @ 4.10
NUGT…keep the theta rolling
Bought to Close NUGT JUL 22 2016 195.0 Call @ .30 (sold for 2.50 as part of a weekly strangle)
Sold to Open NUGT JUL 29 2016 190.0 Call @ 3.40
I’ll add next week’s put side once this week’s looks a little safer.
NFLX earnings iron fly
Sold the weekly 89/99/99/109 for 7.30 yesterday.
Obviously a bigger move than the market expected. By staying small I can afford to mess with this for awhile. At the open today, I sold the long 89 puts at 3.65 (too early) giving me a total premium received for the trade of 10.95. This would give me the stock at a cost basis of 88.05. I’ll be looking for a rally to this number to close this week or start looking to sell covered calls beyond this week.
NUGT weekly strangles
As long as IV is through the roof I’ll keep selling these weeklies.
Sold NUGT JUL 22 2016 135.0 Put @ 3.10
Adding this to the 195 call sold yesterday for 2.50
NUGT…playing it safe again
Rolled this up a couple times so closing just in case she goes lower…already closed call side of strangle.
Bought to Close NUGT JUL 15 2016 155.0 Put @ 2.10 (sold for 5.90)
HLF…blast from the past
Looks like we have a winner!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100408608
NUGT weekly strangle
Been paying nicely each week…getting a jump start on next week. Already closed this week’s 190 call and rolled up the put side a couple times (currently 155). With the aggressive put roll I’ll start the call side for next week a little early.
Sold NUGT JUL 22 2016 195.0 Call @ 2.50
SPX….still on the fence about trading this regularly
I’ve been messing with SPX off and on for a year or so mainly with 60-90 day positions well out of the money. Making a little here and there but can’t decide if it’s worth the effort for the return I’m getting…especially with these seemingly impossible crazy moves we’ve gotten. Taking a step back for now…
Bought to Close SPX SEP 30 2016 2225/2250 Bear call spread @ 6.90 (sold for 2.25)
Bought to Close SPX OCT 31 2016 2250/2275 Bear call spread @ 6.30 (sold for 2.50)
Net loss on these 2 positions of 8.45. Only other position is twice as many Aug 31 1900/1775 put spreads where I’ve been rolling up the short side. Net credit on those is 4.30 at twice the size of the calls so bringing in 8.60. This was my intended stop point…when the call losses equaled the max possible put gains I would close. Risking a whipsaw here but could reload the calls if needed. I’d prefer the puts expire and walk away with a wash though…we’ll see!
SVXY closing puts
These were part of a short call reverse roll from awhile back so happy to have any profit. Taking them off now with VIX in the dump without much of an SVXY pop….things that make you go hmmm…LOL In an #IRA so freeing up lots of cash as well.
Bought to Close SVXY JUL 15 2016 55.0 Puts @ .25 (sold for .90 reverse roll)
IBB…playing it safe
Not holding out for the last nickel since it’s looking a little weak. Might even get a chance to reload today or tomorrow. In an #IRA so freeing up lots and lots of cash.
Bought to Close IBB JUL 15 2016 260.0 Puts @ .20 (sold for 3.20)
SPX put spread adjustment
Rolled August 31st short 1825 puts up to 1900 for 2.55 credit. Might seem like a big roll but it’s only from delta .03 to delta .08. Still a 90.78 percent chance of expiring according to TOS. Accelerating theta should help protect these on anything other than a major selloff…maybe 🙂
NUGT weekly strangle
Jumping back in for next week….
Sold July 15 2016 125/190 strangle @ 4.60
NUGT update
Been messing around this week with the rolling up of an original 95 strike put sale to see how it works out. Busy at work, but Wednesday afternoon made a super aggressive roll up from 150 to 162.5. This brought total credit for the week to 13.10. Of course Mr. Market noticed this and NUGT dumped…LOL funny how that happens! In any case, closed it on the bounce this morning at 7.55 for net gain of 5.55. Looking like I might have been a little early but leaving soon and not sure I’ll see the close. Interesting experiment….slightly too aggressive but still good for a week.
Tastytrade suggests rolling to delta 30 on the non threatened side of a strangle. I went a little beyond that but got lucky. The 150 strike would’ve been about right. All’s well that ends well!
NUGT rolls…
Busy at work most of the morning but managed a couple rolls…
Rolled Aug 105/175 strangle up to 125/200 for .74 debit
Rolled Sep 105/180 strangle up to 120/200 for .71 debit
I’ll take the 1.45 cost for these rolls out of the 11.05 received for selling this week’s put…still a nice return for the week.
NUGT – taking one for the team
If this doesn’t make NUGT roll over and die nothing will…hedging my Aug 105/175 and Sep 105/180 short strangle positions.
Originally sold this week’s 125 put last week. Rolled it up Friday to 135 for nice credit. Very aggressive roll this morning to 150…LOL! 4.50 credit on today’s roll bringing the total to 11.05. Breakeven down to 138.95. Even after this I’m slightly short overall. If NUGT continues up I’ll use some of the premium from this put to roll up the call side of the existing strangles.
Good luck!
SPX call spreads
Closed the put side of these already…finally getting a chance to sell the call side since it looks like we might be near a top. Starter positions small…
Sold SPX SEP 30 2016 2225/2250 Bear call spreads @ 2.25
Sold SPX OCT 31 2016 2250/2275 Bear call spread @ 2.50
/GC Gold futures
Boring rainy days here in STL so to liven things up a little took a shot scalping gold from the long side….
Stopped out overnight with -1.9
This morning:
In 1350.50 Out 1353.20 +2.7
In 1351.20 Out 1352.90 +1.7
In 1352.00 Out 1352.50 +0.5
Net gain 3 points…I’ll take it! (this contract is fairly large trading at 100 dollars per point)
From VIXCONTANGO.com
Key Market Levels
The market traveled more than 200 SPX points this week on the way down and back. Here are all the instances where the SPX has traveled 200 points or more in the span of 5 consecutive trading days.
These instances are Apr of 2000, Sep/Oct/Nov of 2008, Aug of 2011, Aug of 2015 and now Jun of 2016. All of these are associated with market stress – Tech Bubble Burst, Lehman, AAA downgrade, Sudden China Devaluation and now Brexit. In all of these instances, there is no comparable where the rally ended this close to the All-Time-High. In each prior instance, the bounce ended well below -5% from the ATH. This is what makes this week’s recovery stand alone in the pantheon of sudden reversals. You have never had reversal this quickly this fast this close near a top. Only April of 2000 is somewhat similar and after an extended flat-market in 2000, the market turned into the bear market of 2000-2003.
The market now has to push above the 2100-2135 resistance area in order for anybody to get convinced that this rally will last. Right now, we are back right smack in the resistance area. Whether we break through depends on the following incoming data over the next 2-3 weeks:
US Non-Manufacturing PMI (Service PMI)
FOMC Minutes on Wednesday
ADP/BLS Job Reports (180K expected)
Corporate earnings
For the SPX, at resistance there is only 2 trades from a technical standpoint:
Short SPX with a stop over the breakout level which is at 2135
Long SPX after a breakout over 2135
This is going to be an epic tug of war here over the next 2-3 weeks as this data is rolling in.
Seasonally, July is the strongest summer month, which is not really saying much as the average July SPY return is 0.5% or the 6th weakest month in a year with 12 months. More notably, the year’s worst months on average are ahead of us. So you can’t expect seasonal factors to favor the bulls or bears here and the price will be entirely determined by external factors. However, you should expect seasonal factors and low volume to favor the bears in August and September.
Resistance levels on the topside is the 2100-2135 area where rally petered out multiple times over the past 2 months and over the past 2 years.
Support area is at the 2080 level where the 10-50MAs are and after that 2020-2040 area where the 100-200MAs are.
Key Volatility Levels:
We already discussed the historic nature of the VIX drop this week. The VIX futures curve also went from a “Bear Market” formation to a “Rally” formation in the span of one week. Technically this is defined as Contango going from negative to positive (above 5%) with the jump being more than 10 basis points. Here are all the prior occurrences of this phenomenon:
There are 3 instances in 2007, one during the European Crisis in 2010, one at the start of 2013 (Fiscal Cliff Deal), one at the end (Government Shutdown), end of 2014 and July of 2015.
2007 instances were precursors to the historically high volatility regime of 2008, from 2010-2014 they were amazing buying opportunities for XIV, in 2015 the August crash of 2015 followed soon after and now Brexit.
So no verdict can be reached from a technical standpoint, but the verdict is pretty clear once you take into account qualitative factors. These volatility curve formation changes were great times to short volatility when the result was “market positive” such as the attainment of a deal during the Fiscal Cliff or the Government Shutdown. But shorting volatility was precisely the wrong trade during times where no such deal was present. Nobody really looks at Brexit as a market positive. Christine Lagarde of the IMF projected that the UK GDP loss will be anywhere between -1.5% and -4.5% by 2019 and the IMF routinely overestimates growth. In other words, this is the best case scenario. So buying the dip here in XIV may not be a wise thing.
XIV had a heck of a rally this week with a nearly 20% run, but remains -20% over the past month. VXX is -20% for the week and +2% over the past month. However, the drop this week was way too fast for my taste and rushing in to buy the dip in XIV right here is probably a very bad idea. This is the “picking up pennies in front a steamroller” period now. VATR and VVIX remain very high and in all prior instance where VVIX remained high, a higher volatility regime ensued in the not so distant future. August is still ahead of us and August stands alone from a seasonal perspective as the one really bad month for XIV.
UVXY and KOLD
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/proshares-announces-etf-share-splits-201000848.html
ETE…Lou over at OMM likes it
He suggested RLYP and it worked out nicely so I’ll follow again.
Sold ETE JUL 15 2016 14.0 Puts @ .65
NUGT adjustments
All of my nuggets were in this week and tiny positions…(stay small!)
Bought to Close NUGT JUL 1 2016 117.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 8.40 after multiple roll ups)
This left me with short 105 and 115 calls for today.
Rolled the 115’s to August 160/90 strangles for .50 debit
Rolled the 105’s to Sept 160/90 strangles for .06 debit
Paid for the debit rolls with a quick scalp of this week’s 138 puts right at the open. A quick in and out for 30 cents on a few contracts…
Now will be looking to sell some weekly shorter term puts on any weakness to stay fairly delta neutral. Current position short 71 deltas and would become long at 104 so there is some room for some sales on the put side for now…
SVXY puts
Not even messing with this stuff anymore after having a nickel nugget a few weeks ago turn into nearly 3 bucks on expiration day.
Bought SVXY JUL 1 2016 45.0 Puts @ .05 (sold for 1.50)
RLYP called early
Lost the last of my stock. Called away last night at 17 with a 16.25 basis. I’ll take it since it was originally a basis of 25 but reduced using weekly covered calls.
UVXY call spreads
Took these off today for a 3 day quickie…
Bought to Close UVXY AUG 19 2016 20/30 Bear call spreads @ .43 (sold for 1.05)
SVXY covered calls
/VX VIX futures
Sold at 22.75 on the last second spike earlier and just covered at 21.75. A full point while packing for work..LOL I’ll take it!
/VX VIX futures
Sold at 22.50 and covered at 22.30
Little 20 tick winner…sold too early so looking to re-enter closer to 23 on this current drop.
SVXY covered calls
Bought to Close SVXY JUL 15 2016 65.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for .90)
Joining SPX party…
Bought to Close SPX SEP 16 2016 2250/2275 Bear call spreads @ .25 (sold for 1.60)
NUGT…playing it safe
I’ve been burned by this thing on huge Friday afternoon moves before so booking these just in case. A few weeks ago had a chance to close puts for a nickel but waited. They ended up in the money and trading for over 2 bucks a few hours later. Not this time!
Bought to Close NUGT JUN 24 2016 95.0 Put @ .15 (sold for 4.20)
Bought to Close NUGT JUN 24 2016 100.0 Put @ .29 (sold for 5.40)
NUGT again
Rolled my last call from this week earlier this morning. Starting a put position again for next since all other puts are expiring today. IV’s still crazy on both sides of the line of scrimmage today.
Sold NUGT JUL 1 2016 100.0 Put @ 4.67
Sold against 105 and 115 calls…looking to add a little more on a pullback.
UVXY call spreads
Staying small and looking to add… #IRA
Sold UVXY AUG 19 2016 20/30 Bear call spreads @ .85
SVXY
Sold SVXY JUL 1 2016 45.0 Put @ 1.50
NUGT crazy fills
Rolled 105 call to next week 115 for even when mid price was 1.00 debit…
🙂 🙂
Off topic…just had to laugh!
RLYP covered calls
Half position called away last week. Aggressively covering the other half now.
Sold RLYP Jun 24 2016 17.50 Calls @ .70
BIB covered calls
Replacing the 40’s that expired Friday…lowering cost basis to 35.40
Sold BIB Jul 15 2016 40.0 Calls @ 2.35
NUGT misc
Taking care of these now since tomorrow will be a fairly busy day. These weeklies keep paying quite nicely. Selling pretty aggressive strangles then rolling whichever side I have to and then selling the other side. Staying small!
Bought to Close NUGT JUN 17 2016 95.0 Put @ .20 (sold for 2.40)
Bought to Close NUGT JUN 17 2016 100.0 Put @ .49 (sold for 3.10)
Bought to Close NUGT JUN 17 2016 105.0 Put @ 1.00 (sold for 4.70)
Sold NUGT JUN 24 2016 95.0 Put @ 4.20
Sold NUGT JUN 24 2016 100.0 Put @ 5.40
Still slightly short delta overall down to around 98…
New indicator from John Carter…
Got this recently…seems kinda cool. The red/green dots at the bottom signal bearish or bullish on each of the next 4 higher time frames based on the time frame of the current chart. Haven’t quite figured out exactly how to trade it since I missed most of the webinar Saturday. Hoping to catch up over the weekend…seems like it could be a powerful tool combined with the squeeze indicator.
From VIXCONTANGO.com
Of course they are just guessing like any body else…LOL
The SPX broke 2064 overnight which was the latest mini-support level of the alst 2 days. We’re in a vacuum here down to the 2040 level where the Nov-Dec lower highs support line sits. Underneath that is the 2020 level where the 100MA and 200MA sit.
The goal here is to go long volatility as the VIX will go to 25 or 30 or more as the SPX goes from 2060 to 2040 and ideally to the 2020 level.
Somewhere after the open, I will enter in a “Long VXX” trade at 50% of allocation. This trade should be executed in a margin account only because I may close the trade intraday at any time if the trade action goes against the trade or the VIX is seeming to peak (or the VX1 future stops responding to the VIX spiking). If you are using a 401(k), I recommend sitting this one out.
We are just entering negative contango here for a second time in a week (not a good sign for SPX bulls). VDelta is very negative. VCO and VTRO are also negative. VCO in particular is now negative for 4th straight day, a very ominous development for the SPX with a 100% volatility spike track record.
This is a good spot to go Long VXX even though the SmartVXX algo is not yet ready to pounce. The SmartVXX algo needs Contango and Roll Yield to get significantly negative (ie the Volatility Curve is heavily inverted). As such there is still risk of reversal (ie volatility reversing and starting to go down) here and for that I will have a pretty tight stop here at 5%. The worst loss should be 5% of 50% or about 2.5% of the portfolio. The target gain on this trade is anywhere from 10% to 25% over the next week. For those that are more adventurous, you can go with UVXY here to capture even more of the VIX pop. We could end up with a spike to VIX of 40 here. The Brexit will be the excuse, but the FED’s fumble yesterday will most likely be the real reason.
SPX roll
Rolled SPX JUN 24 2016 2025/1950 BuPS to Aug 31 1825/1775 for .20 credit. (2x size but still very small)
This was originally a 1975/1950 put side of an iron condor where I had greedily rolled up the short side for extra credit. Approaching delta 25 so taking action. Now paired up with 2225/2250 calls for a new condor.
SPX spreads
Bought to Close SPX JUL 29 2016 1800/1775 Bull put spreads @ 1.20 (sold for 1.70)
Just playing it safe here…
This was more of a…
Fuzzy out…for awhile
Pretty much trimmed my positions back to minimal…some covered calls on a few stocks, a little SPX, and a few NUGT strangles. Gonna be in Nassau all next week (my daughter’s Dean’s list reward…LOL). Not sure how the wifi is there and how much time I’ll have to watch the market. I’m guessing it’ll be a crazy week with the FOMC, Grexit, and triple witching so good luck everyone and stay small!
Now…where is that little umbrella for my drink???
IBB put
Adding another one…
Sold IBB Jul 15 2015 260 Put @ 3.20
NUGT puts
Bought to Close NUGT JUN 10 2016 55.0 Put @ .05 (part of 55/95 strangle)
Bought to Close NUGT JUN 17 2016 55.0 Put @ .35 (part of 55/105 strangle)
Looking to double dip on a pullback…
IBB puts
Attempting to replace stock getting called away today…
Sold IBB Jul 15 260 Puts @ 3.20
Looking like I’ll be out of BIB and RLYP in a couple weeks so trying to maintain a little biotech exposure…
NUGT learned my lesson
Had 95 calls expiring today that were worth .025 yesterday and I didn’t close them knowing a big number today was coming that could possibly move gold a lot. Now sitting at 2.40 so probably stuck with them a little longer on the roll out. Woulda coulda shoulda….
SVXY covered call
I’m betting I’ll get a chance to close this at a profit before December but if not, I’d let the stock go there.
Sold SVXY DEC 16 2016 75.0 Call @ 6.00
VIXCONTANGO.com update
Around 2085 is where the SPX daily vstop is and where the Aug-Nov trendline sits as support. The SPX has a hard time breaking through that so far today. After a quick visit above 15, the VIX is back below 15. The SPX needs to break through 2085 to see a spike of the VIX to 16. And if it does that the moving average fan for the 10-50MAs in the 2070-2075 looks to be a very hard area to break for this market which continues to receive good news, the 51.2 manufacturing ISM with a stunning 63 prices reading being the latest one and a 45 reading for inventories. We have demand, we don’t have supply folks. Not to mention all kinds of positive merger news – Benioff was just on CNBC talking how hard it is to get a good MA deal because everybody is positioning for growth in 2017.
But even if the VIX spikes to 16, the VX1 and VX2 futures seem to already have this move priced in. VX2 is at 17.85 earlier today about 50 cents above VXV and the VX1 is at 15.85 about a point above VIX at 14.85. So the futures curve remains really elevated compared to the spots and there is only 9 trading days left to expiration.
Volatility Analytics remain strong. VForce is actually in the yellow as the VIX has gone above the VIX 50MA which is only at 14.51 by now. But the VIX 50MA should act as resistance and the reversion to the mean may have run its course for the VIX in the near term. At worst this looks like a move to 16 VIX and the futures have already priced it. So from here on out the surprise is for the VIX to go down and for the VIX futures to go down. And that is XIV bullish.
As such EliteVolatility is at 50% exposure to XIV, but should I see some confirmation that the SPX downdraft is over, will be going full 100% soon. So far what is happening today does not look like a “hanging man” confirmation to me even though it appear so on the surface early on in the day. A green candle today is not a “hanging man” confirmation…
NUGT strangles
Slow day…
Sold NUGT JUN 10 2016 55/95 Strangles @ 2.75
VIX calls
Bought a few calls at the close for fun. Never seems to stay at or below 13 for very long…
SPX put spreads
Bought to Close SPX JUN 30 2016 1825/1800 Bull put spreads @ .25 (sold for 1.40)
SPX call spreads
One quickie today. With June practically worthless moving out to Sep.
Sold SPX SEP 16 2016 2250/2275 Bear call spreads @ 1.60
Off topic….
BIB covered calls
I’m a little heavy in biotech (long IBB also) so covering these with an aggressive ITM position for more protection. This strike still makes a nice profit even if the stock gets called away here.
Sold BIB Jun 17 2016 40 Calls @ 4.40
RLYP….another batch
Sold RLYP JUN 17 2016 20.0 Calls @ 1.15 (basis now 17.55)
Covered my lower basis (11.20) batch last week (too early!) @ 15 strike…
NUGT reverse roll
Just to keep deltas fairly neutral…
Rolled 1 June 3rd 75 put into 2 June 3rd 95 calls for .25 credit.
And to reduce the risk of getting whipsawed:
Bought to Close NUGT MAY 27 2016 100.0 Calls @ .40 (sold for 1.30)
RLYP covered calls
In the #IRA :
Bought to Close RLYP MAY 20 2016 15.0 Calls @ .05 (sold for 1.30)
Sold RLYP JUN 17 2016 15.0 Calls @ 1.90
Cost basis now down to 11.15.
SPX call spreads
Bought to Close SPX JUN 30 2016 2200/2225 Bear call spreads @ .25 (sold for 1.75)
Bought to Close SPX JUL 29 2016 2225/2250 Bear call spreads @ .25 (sold for 2.05)
NUGT legging out
Bought to Close NUGT MAY 27 2016 150.0 Calls @ .10 (sold for 1.40 as part of a strangle)
Bought to Close NUGT JUN 3 2016 170.0 Calls @ .20 (sold for 1.75 as part of a strangle)
Other sides of these was 70 and 75 puts that I rolled 1 for 2 into 100 and 105 calls in same expiration staying fairly delta neutral now…
NUGT…staying cautious
Closing this thing a little early just in case we get a 30 point 2 day run…I’m happy since the 145 was originally a 175 that got rolled down for additional premium.
Bought to Close NUGT MAY 20 2016 75/145 Strangles @ .32 (sold for 3.80)
NUGT
Sold NUGT JUN 3 2016 170.0 Calls @ 1.75
I’ll leg into the strangle on a pullback…
SPX put spreads
Sold SPX JUL 29 2016 1800/1775 Bull put spreads @ 1.70
Legs me into the iron condor against 2225/2250 call spreads sold a few weeks ago.
NUGT strangles
This week’s 75/145 looking pretty good…adding to next week. Lower premium than last week but hopefully safe.
Sold NUGT MAY 27 2016 70/150 strangle @ 2.35 (already down from 3.40 last Friday)
SPX call spreads
Jun and July looking pretty safe so heading out to August…
Sold SPX AUG 31 2016 2225/2250 Bear call spreads @ 1.60
NUGT strangle
Easing in again…staying short term and small. Thinking (hoping 🙂 ) that next week’s 75/145 will start decaying pretty rapidly after the weekend.
Sold 1 NUGT MAY 27 2016 70/150 Strangle @ 3.40
XIV flipper
In at 28.05 yesterday and out at 29.05 today. Wouldn’t mind seeing it trade down to the 27.50 area for a possible re-entry.




