#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 12 5060/5080-5225/5245 condors for 1.55, IV 31.87%, deltas -.07 +.07.
I may also add an ATM condor but for now I’m liking the premium and width being offered on my previous 1-dte strategy.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX 0-dte trades 4/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 11th 5130/5160-5165/5195 condors for 19.70, IV 27.98%, at 8:47 ET
CPI higher than expected
The consumer price index increased at a faster than expected pace in March, indicating that inflation is staying stubbornly higher and likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold with interest rates.
The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.
Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI also accelerated 0.4% on a monthly basis while rising 3.8% from a year ago, compared to respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/cpi-inflation-march-2024-consumer-prices-rose-3point5percent-from-a-year-ago-in-march.html
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte I am not trading before CPI, but watching a centered test trade going for 23.85. That’s only 6.15 of risk, which is quite tempting.
I will watch movement and consider a trade if volatility starts dropping and SPX calms down.
SPX 0-dte trades 4/9/24
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 9th 5180/5210-5215/5245 condors for 15.15, IV 16.64%, at 9:28 ET
SPX 0-dte trades 4/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 8th 5175/5205-5210/5240 condors for 16.85, IV 20.35%, at 8:25 ET
Economic Calendar 4/8 – 4/12
CPI report is Wednesday morning
SPX 0-dte trades 4/5/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 5th 5130/5160-5165/5185 condors for 20.35, IV 31.03%, at 9:32 ET.
I watched several spreads in pre-market, but IV nor premium really dropped much between jobs report and the open. So I didn’t feel I would get an advantage entering before the open.
March Jobs Report
#Jobs — Gains exceed expectations once again.
Gain of +303,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 214K
Unemployment down 0.1% to 3.8%, as expected
U6 unemployment 7.3%, unchanged
Labor force participation up 0.2% to 62.7%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.3%, as expected; +4.1% Y/Y as expected
February jobs revised down by -5K to +270K
January jobs revised up by +27K to +256K
SPX 0-dte trades 4/4/24
#SPX0dte Another over-reaction to data, this time slight rise in weekly jobless claims. Not sure if I’ll place a trade before the open.
SPX o-dte 4/3/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 3rd 5170/5200-5205/5235 condors for 15.85, IV 18.38%, at 8:41 ET
Powell speaks WEDNESDAY 4/3
Added to the economic calendar is Powell speaking Wednesday at 12:10pm ET
SPX 0-dte 4/2/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 2nd 5190/5220-5225/5245 condors for 14.15, IV 15.43%
Futures trending lower after a day with a decent drop, so this is riskier positioning than last week has been. Also would like to be out by 10a ET to avoid in reaction to JOLT jobs report.
SPX 0-dte 4/1/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Apr 1st 5230/5260-5265/5295 for 12.80, IV 14.78%
Economic Calendar 4/1 – 4/5
ADDED to calendar is Powell speaking WEDNESDAY:
JOBS report Friday morning.
SPX 0-dte 3/28/24
#SPX0dte At 8:38 ET, sold to Open $SPX Mar 26th 5220/5250-5255/5285 condors for 14.50, IV 17.19%
SPX 0-dte 3/27/24
#SPX0dte At 8:42 ET Sold to Open $SPX Mar 27th 5195/5225-5230/5260 condors for 13.35, IV 14.11%
SPX 0-dte 3/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 26th 5205/5235-5240/5270 condors for 12.90, IV 14.08%
20-winged test going for 11.05
SPX 0-dte 3/25/24
#SPX0dte At 8:56 ET, sold to Open $SPX Mar 25th 5200/5230-5235/5265 condors for 14.85, IV 14.45%
Upside Warning reinstated
#VIXindicator This fired at the close today. It comes after the last one was canceled on Feb 13th, but with no Downside Warning in the interim. So it may not be as strong, but don’t be surprised at more movement higher.
Economic Calendar 3/25 – 3/29
Friday holiday so shortened week, but also pretty quiet in terms of data releases.
SPX o-dte 3/22/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 22nd 5210/5240-5245/5275 condors for 13.05, IV 15.67%, at 9:36 ET
Premium was dropping rapidly as I tried to sell this.
SPX 0-dte 3/21/24
#SPX0dte At 9:31 ET, sold to Open $SPX 5220/5250-5255/5285 condors for 14.00, IV 16.41%
Premium on this went from 13.75 at open to now 14.20, even though SPX wasn’t moving dramatically.
20-winged test trade going for 11.85
No SPX trade 3/20/24
#SPX0dte Taking the day off to avoid possible volatility from FOMC rate decision.
I am watching a test position:
Sold $SPX Mar 20th 5140/5170-5175/5205 condors for 21.30, IV 31.70% at 9:39 ET
I want to see how much premium drop we can get before the 2pm event.
SPX 0-dte 3/19/24
#SPX0dte Given the 30-point move in the last 4 hours and also IV at over 20%, I’m going to wait for the open.
SPX 0-dte 3/18/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 18th 5125/5155-5160/5190 condors for 15.60, IV 17.7%
20-winged test trade going for 12.75
Earnings 3/18 – 3/22
Economic Calendar 3/18 – 3/22
#FOMC interest rate decision is Wednesday afternoon
SPX 0-dte 3/15/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5130/5150-5155/5185 condors for 18.00, IV 22%
20-winged test going for 14.00.
SPX 0-dte 3/14/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 14th 5145/5175-5180/5210 condors for 15.25, IV 18.29%
20-winged test going for 12.40
SPX 0-dte 3/13/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 13th 5140/5170-5175/5205 condors for 14.65, IV 16.55%
20-winged test going for 11.95.
SPX 0-dte 3/12/24
#SPX0dte At 6:33a, Sold to Open $SPX Mar 12th 5110/5140-5145/5175 condors for 17.40, IV 23.67%
20-winged test trade went for 13.85
CPI for February
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February, as expected, and 3.2% from a year ago, vs expected 3.1%
SPX 0-dte 3/11/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 11th 5070/5100-5105/5135 condors for 18.80, IV 23.39%
20-winged test at 14.50
This is high IV and high premium for a day with nothing major scheduled. $VIX is up as well. CPI report tomorrow morning.
Economic Calendar 3/11 – 3/15
CPI report on Tuesday morning
SPX 0dte 3/8/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 8th 5140/5170-5175/5205 condors for 17.35, IV 22.1%
20-point-winged test trade was at 13.65
February Jobs Report
#Jobs — Gains exceed expectations again, but UE rises.
Gain of +275,000 non-farm payroll jobs, vs. expected gain of 198K
Unemployment up 0.2 to 3.9%, vs expected 3.7%
U6 unemployment 7.3%, up by 0.1
Labor force participation unchanged at 62.5%
Average hourly earnings up by 0.1%; 4.3% increase over the year
December jobs revised down by -43K to +290K
January jobs revised down by -124K to 229K
SPX 0-dte 3/7/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 7th 5095/5125-5130/5160 condors for 16.90, IV 19.87%
20-pt winged test trade selling for 13.40
SPX 0-dte 3/6/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5075/5105-5110/5140 condors for 17.30.
Internet issues delayed me… when I first entered this it was going for 18.00. Very irritating.
This is a touchy day… Market is trending higher, and Powell will testify before Congress starting at 10am. We also have JOLT jobs report coming. Going for 10% only.
SPX 0-dte 3/5/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 5th 5080/5110-5115/5145 condors for 15.00, IV 16.64%
SPX 0-dte 3/4/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 4th 5095/5125-5130/5160 condors for 12.70, IV 14.57%
That’s lowest premium I’ve seen yet, I guess because IV is low and no economic events today, other than FOMC member Harker speaking at 11am ET.
Earnings 3/4 – 3/8
Economic Calendar 3/4 – 3/8
Jobs report is Friday
SPX 0-dte 3/1/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Mar 1st 5070/5100-5105/5125 condors for 16.90, IV 20.14%
SPX 0-dte trades 2/29/24
#SPX0dte After the open, sold to open $SPX Feb 29th 5065/5095/5125 Iron Butterflys for 18.00, IV 20.93%
Small accounts: 5060/5090-5095/5125 condors for 16.35.
SPX 0-dte trades 2/28/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5040/5070/5100 Iron Butterflys for 15.95, IV 16.34%
Small accounts: 5035/5065-5070/5100 for 13.90.
Overnight test: IC centered at 5075-5080 sold for 15.50, was up to 16.75 earlier but is now in profit since SPX has risen closer to the center.
SPX 0-dte trades 2/27/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 27th 5045/5075/5105 Iron Butterflys for 16.55, IV 16.57%
Small accounts: 5040/5070-5075/5105 condors for 14.65.
NOTE: I placed similar PAPER positions at the close last night (the IB was 5 points lower), and since we are little changed from yesterday’s close, the IB gained 1.50 on the IC about 1.75. My day could be over before the open had these been my real trades. I’m going to be testing night-before paper trades for future consideration.
SPX trades 2/26/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 5060/5090/5120 Iron Butteflys for 16.20, IV 16.3%
Small accounts: 5055/5085-5090/5120 condors for 14.35.
Economic Calendar 2/26 – 3/1
Q4 GDP on Wednesday morning.
Some key inflation data on Thursday morning.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 22nd 5020/5050/5080 Iron Butterflys for 18.70, IV 21.45%
Small accounts: 5020/5050-5055/5085 condors for 16.85
Waited until after weekly jobs data, but still some economic data coming after the open. I leaned a few points bullish on this, but with the strong overnight trend this one could be a bit touchy if the strength continues after the open.
SPX 0-dte study
#SPX0dte I did a mini-study today to back test WAITING UNTIL EXPIRATION . I went from April 5, 2021, which was the first day we breached SPX 4000, to 2/13/24. I tested the IB with 30-pt wings. Premium taken in of $16 each day.
Total trading days:721
Total wins: 276, $2,370
Total losses: 445, -$5,147
So, definitely not looking beneficial over long term to wait until the close. I suspected this, but wanted to make sure. If we increased premium to $17 or $18 we’d get closer to even but I still think it would be a loss.
SPX 0-dte 2/21/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 21st 4930/4960/4990 #IronButterfly for 18.95, IV 20.1%
Small accounts: 4925/4955-4960/4990 condors for 17.40
Sold a bit earlier than normal so risking premarket moves, with intention of benefitting from premarket volatility drop.
SPX 0-dte 2/20/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 20th 4960/4990/5020 #IronButterfly for 16.85, IV 18.6%
Small accounts: 4960/4990-4995/5025 condors for 14.85.
Earnings 2/19 – 2/23
Economic Calendar 2/19 – 2/23
Tasty Trade 0-dte videos
I have added a hashtag: #TastyTrade to the last three posts that include videos on the subject of 0-dte trades. You can see them by clicking on that hashtag or by entering it in the search box in the right-hand column. I’m also updating the “Hashtag Strategies” in the menu bar at the top of the page.
SPX 0-dte 2/16/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX 4995/5025/5055 #IronButterfly for 17.845
Small accounts: Sold 4990/5020-5025/5055 condors for 16.20.
Sorry I forgot to press “Post” on this but the trade was placed at 6:37am
The Bistro Hall of Revolving Presidents
Back by popular demand, in observance of Presidents’ Day (and trading holiday) on Monday, it’s the Hall of Revolving Presidents. Click “Home/Refresh” or refresh your browser to change the featured President.
SPX 0dte 2/15/24
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 15th 4975/5005/5035 #IronButterfly for 17.00, IV 19.3%
Small account alternative: Sold 4970/5000-5005/5035 condors for 15.40
SPX 0dte 2/14/24
#SPXodte Sold to Open $SPX 4945/4975/5005 #IronButterfly for 17.15, IV 19.4%
Small accounts: Sold 4945/4975-4980/5010 condors for 15.25
Upside Warning canceled
#VIXindicator The $VIX has spiked 25% over the 2-day closing low of 12.93. If we close above 16.16 this will trigger a Downside Warning.
CPI for January
Inflation up 0.4% MoM in January, vs expected 0.3%
That’s up 3.1% YoY, vs expected 2.9%.
So worse than expected, meaning negative market reaction is possible. Futures down 40 points at lows so far.
SPX 0-dte 2/13/24
#SPX0dte Wiaitng until afetr CPI report, probably until the open.
I checked ATM prices before the report and they are over 21.00 for the Iron Butterfly, so about the same as it was at last night’s close, so no benefit to placing the trade day before.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 12th 4995/5025/5055 #IronButterfly for 14.90, IV 15.23%
Small account alt: 4995/5025-5030/5060 condors for 12.80
Earnings 2/12 – 2/16
Economic Calendar 2/12 – 2/16
CPI report on Tuesday could be a market mover
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 9th 4975/5005/5035 Iron Butterfly for 16.70, IV 19.3%
Small account alternative: 4970/5000-5005/5035 condor for 14.85.
Sold right after the open.
CPI revisions
Bloomberg TV talking about some CPI revisions coming in next few minutes, and given the monthly report is next week I’m going to wait until market has a chance to react before trading.
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 8th 4960/4990/5020 IB for 16.70, IV 17.44%, 5:53am
Small account alternative: 4955/4985/4990/5020 condors for 15.10.
Out today
Small injury this morning so I’m getting stitches, so no trade today
SPX 0-dte
#SPX0dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 6th 4915/4945/4975 iron butterflys for 15.868, IV 16.62% (ask set for 15.85, but some filled for 15.90)
Small accounts: Sold to Open $SPX Feb 6th 4915/4945-4950/4980 condors for 13.80.
SPX0dte
#SPX0dte Starting a new hashtag today to represent a shift in strategy, using a same-day #IronButterfly in non-volatile periods on days where no big moves are expected. I will still likely use condors on some days.
At 5:26am, Sold to Open $SPX Feb 5th 4920/4950-4950/4980 iron butterflys for 17.25, IV 19.5%. Profit goal is at least 10% of max, so close order is in to buy back for 15.50. Stop will be manual, I will look to exit if premium reaches 20.75.
I also have a tight condor in accounts that are under or near $25K, i have a tight condor as an alternative to avoid pattern day trading violations. This is 4915/4945-4950/4980 condors for 15.40. The order to close set for 13.85.
Earnings 2/5 – 2/9
Economic Calendar 2/5 – 2/9
SPX trades 2/2
#SPX1dte Sold to Open $SPX Feb 2nd 4835/4855-4970/4990 condors for 1.15, deltas -.06 +.06, IV 25.5%
Options Bistro 