Turnaround Tuesday may be in order. Market rarely bottoms on a Friday. Be careful getting too short today… may have a better chance tomorrow on a bounce. But I’m girding for any possibility.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 1875/1850 put spreads for 3.40. Sold on Friday for 1.50.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 2075/2100 call spreads for 3.00. Roll from puts I just stopped. I am comfortable with this even if we are at a bottom, as the call roll up will not be too difficult.
Put spread stopped
#SPXcampaign Stair-stepping lower… unable to get out on the bounces so now I’m past my normal stop level on a few spreads. Working on rolls, likely in calls or strangles.
Bought to close $SPX July 1st 1950/1925 put spreads for 4.35. Sold for 1.25 on May 31st.
Futures well off lows; VIX…
Futures well off lows; VIX barely budging and UVXY opening flat. Gold coming down.
Bistro SPXcampaign position chart
My positions in the #SPXcampaign are now visible in the chart linked in the right hand column; just click on the image to open it full screen.
You can use your browser’s zoom function on the chart since the print is small. I have included a key to all of the info included in each spread. I will add each day’s spreads in text form at right before I’m able to update the chart.
Please feel free to ask any questions; I know it may be confusing! I will be providing updated webinars and more info soon.
Options Expiration 6/24/16
#OptionsExpiration Nail-biter of a close with short 2040’s, will sell a roll next week. With more VIX Indicator signals firing today, further drops in the market are very likely.
— Expiring —
NUGT 50 puts
SPX 2135/2160 call spreads
SPX 2025/2000 put spreads
SPX 2020/1995 put spreads
UVXY 22 call
UVXY 12 put
— Cash Settlement —
SPX 2040/2015 put spreads: looks like about 2.70 debit when 2040 puts are exercised
— Max Loss —
FDX (#Earnings) 157.50/162.50/165/170 iron condor, 1.70 loss.
SPX still moving down, put spread order filled
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 1775/1750 put spreads for 1.30. I put this order in this morning… didn’t come close to a fill all day but just filled now at 4:14 ET as S&P ticked down further after hours.
NUGT roll
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT June 24th 99 call for 17.00. Sold for 3.50 on May 25th
STO NUGT July 22nd 130 call for 12.70.
Tried to sell a put too but no fill, so I will add it Monday.
Escaped with my 2040’s in…
Escaped with my 2040’s in tact. Now trying to sell a call spread.
Looking ugly, folks. Any bounce…
Looking ugly, folks. Any bounce is the chance to get out.
Bistro VIX indicator Archive
Bistro VIX Indicator for Monday 6/27
UVXY and NUGT fills
#VXXGame STO UVXY July 8th 25 call for 1.00
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT July 29th 175 call for 5.90 (new highest strike)
SPX same day puts
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 2020/1995 put spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2047. 27 points OTM with three hours left… can it hold? Having to watch my 2040/2015 spreads more closely.
SPX short-term puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 29th (Wednesday) 1950/1925 puts spreads for 1.25-1.40. I have been scaling in, last spread order for 1.50 not filled yet.
More UVXY
#VXXGame STO UVXY July 29th 25 call for 1.10
STO UVXY July 15th 25 call for 1.00
Looking to sell another put…
Looking to sell another put spread expiring today, 2020/1995, on next push down. Still short at 2040 and 2025. Ready to roll if I have to.
FB & UVXY
#CoveredPuts STO $FB July 15th 109 put for 1.30
#VXXGame STO $UVXY July 22nd 25 call for 1.00.
VIX indicator
It fired another signal today, by rising 25% above yesterday’s close. Next signal is at 25.00; the morning spike got close but it has no fallen back. It did reach a new intraday high of 24.15.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign I closed these this morning as it released a huge chunk of margin:
BTC $SPX July 1st 2170 2195 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on May 31st.
BTC $SPX June 30th 2160/2185 call spreads for .20. Sold for 3.90 on June 7th (as a roll)
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 1875/1850 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2058.
If you have no put…
If you have no put spreads expiring today, the 2025/2000 is still going for over 2.00. If you believe we won’t be dropping 90 points today, sell it!
Big move, maybe not yuuuge move
As I suspected, we will be opening well off the overnight lows, and right on the edge of my $SPX 2040/2015 put spreads. 2025/2000 spreads look to be in better shape. I removed all close orders for call spreads last night, otherwise they likely would have all closed in pre-market. I wanted to keep them open to offset margin stress on put spreads, and also to save money as many will now likely expire worthless. I will look to sell some deeper put spreads this morning. And some UVXY calls.
SPX IBF closed in pre-market…
SPX IBF closed in pre-market for LESS than max loss
#IronButterfly For my $SPX 2085/2100/2115 iron butterfly, I knew overnight volatility would create some wild swings, so i put in an order to close the 2100/2085 put spread for 14.00 and it filled at 3:38am ET. That’s a dollar less than I would have loss with cash settlement, so mission accomplished; $100 loss rather than $200. I recommend trying something like this for the market open when prices will be going wild.
Looks like we are on…
Looks like we are on track for the biggest one day drop since August 2011, in percentage terms, and the biggest point drop since the 2008 crash. Who knows what the next few hours overnight will bring? Will have a coupe of ITM put spreads to deal with tomorrow.
And down we go again……
And down we go again… It seems to me that London will take the longest to tabulate, and the countryside is the cause for the Leave vote leading at this time. For anyone trading futures after hours, you could make a fortune on this…
Them’s some big swings
SPX rollercoaster
SPX shot up to 2120 in the first couple hours after closing, then plunged back to 2100 when the Leave vote scored better than expected in Northeast England.
IV that must be sold
#SPXcampaign #Brexit With an expected move of 38 points over the next 24 hours, you don’t want to miss out on the premium that’s available. Even though I already sold the 2025/2000 put spreads yesterday, I am also selling the 2040/2015 spreads now… 70 points OTM, 1.50 or more. You have until 4:15 ET to get a trade.
Joining the IBF party
#IronButterfly I can’t be left out, so I sold a 2100-centered iron butterfly for tomorrow. To be different, mine is 15-wide, risking 2.00 to make 13.00.
Sold to Open $SPX 2085/2100/2115 iron butterfly for 13.00.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 24th 1975/1950 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on May 31st. I actually would have canceled this order and let these expire had I remembered this order to close was still working.
Put spread I sold now…
Put spread I sold now going for 2.60. Take it, or drop to lower strikes. I am adding.
#TheTradingLife I made my last…
#TheTradingLife
I made my last trade from here. Manzanita, OR
SPX condor completed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 2025/2000 put spreads for 1.90. Incredible premium for a 2-day trade. Completed a condor with calls sold a few minutes earlier.
SPX same-week calls
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 2135/2160 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2099. Expire in two days. I don’t believe a Remain vote for Brexit will drive the market this high this fast, but I can roll if it does.
FDX earnings adjust
#Earnings Bought to close $FDX June 24th 165 calls for .20. Sold as part of condor yesterday for 3.50. This leaves me with only the put spread, meaning a rally above 162.5 by Friday gets me out of the condor for free. Max profit now 3.30, unless I’m able to sell the 170 call on a strong rally, then I get more.
FDX earnings decision
#Earnings I looked at wide iron condors, but preferred the risk/reward on an iron butterfly, or in this case a very tight iron condor. Risking $150 to make $350, shooting for the week to end with a less than 3% move:
Sold to Open FDX June 24th 157.5/162.5/165/170 iron condors for 3.50. May add more contracts as day progresses, depending on intraday action.
SPX sideways + VXX moving…
SPX sideways + VXX moving up = market should move down today
FDX earnings
#Earnings Fed X is normally a small mover on earnings, averaging 3.3% moves. So I would like to try a neutral trade, but last quarter it moved UP 11%, its biggest single-day earnings move since 2002. That gives me pause…
UVXY and NUGT
#VXXGame STO UVXY July 8th 11 put for 1.51
STO UVXY July 22nd 10 put for 1.40
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT July 22nd 55 put for 2.50
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open July 22nd 2180/2205 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2097.
Options Expiration June 17, 2016
#OptionsExpiration — I am bearish moving into the remainder of the month, but especially early next week as fears about Brexit gain more steam… Yesterday’s murder in the UK actually calmed the markets, as morbid as that sounds, but as the vote draws closer I believe volatility will remain, but then possibly calm after the Thursday vote finally happens. But in any case, I will be selling both sides of SPX.
— Expiring —
FB 110 covered put
NUGT 65, 70, and 72 puts
UVXY 19 and 30 calls
SPX 1940/1915 put spreads (expired at the open)
SPXPM 2000/2020/2100/2120 iron condors (expired at the close)
UVXY puts gone
#VXXGame BTC UVXY June 17th 18 put for 4.18. Sold for 1.95 on March 3.
BTC UVXY June 17th 15 put for 1.22. Sold for 1.30 on march 18th.
BTC UVXY June 17th 14 put for .22. Sold for 1.26 on April 6th
I will look to replace these next week, with calls if market is down, puts if market is up.
UVXY puts
#VXXGame BTC $UVXY June 17th 17 put for 3.01. Sold for 4.55 on 5/20. Got some more to unload but I doubt we’ll be seeing higher prices today.
SPX call spread heaven
#SPXcampaign — This is the time and environment that you can mint money in SPX call spreads. When we bounced off the February lows, many faces were ripped off (still hurts) as we flew higher… but once we got back to 2100, they have been easy to sell above 2130 and easy to take profits or allow to expire. Whenever the market decides to make new highs, we will have plenty of room to roll higher. It is rare for a market to scream higher when it is notching new highs… the pace is much more controlled.
Bought to close $SPX June 24th 2145/2170 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.35 on May 23rd. This was sold when SPX was down around 2050. It took some heat when we hit the highs of 2016 (2120)… that heat can be tough, and your account will draw down, but stick to your rules and roll higher and longer when you need to. My stop for this was 2125, which was never hit. This week has been my most profitable in months because of the many call spreads that plummeted in value.
SPX put roll
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX June 30th (end-of-month) 1970/1945 put spreads for 2.10. Sold 1.5x number of contracts as a roll from put spread stopped at the bottom yesterday. Hopefully I sold this at the bottom today, which would keep the universe in balance. I chose this expiration (expires on a Thursday night) because I already have a call spread for that date.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 2160/2185 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2077.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Had another stop hit, but looks like I unfortunately exited at the bottom, without getting a fill on the roll. Now I will have to wait to sell a roll, perhaps in the calls if we go much higher before we go lower.
BTC $SPX June 24th 1985/1960 puts spreads for 3.00. Sold for 1.30 on June 2nd.
also, to balance margin:
BTC $SPX June 24th 2160/2185 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on May 25th.
SKEW high
The SKEW reading is reaching its highest levels since early January… a bearish signal.
FB covered put rolls
#Rolling #ShortStock #CoveredPuts I’m looking to get out of my short stock with FB below 110 in the coming days. I am therefore rolling 2 puts I have at 113 to give myself exit points below 110.
BTC FB June 24th 113 put for 1.98 / STO FB July 22nd 108 put for 2.02
BTC FB July 1st 113 put for 2.50 / STO FB Dec 90 put for 2.68
#Earnings are projected to be last week of July. I’d like to be out of this position by then, although I’m okay with keeping the Dec 90 put longer.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 1860/1835 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2053.
SPX condor roll
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 1825/1850/2160/2185 iron condors for 2.40. This is a roll from put spread stopped at last night’s close.
TLT longs
#LongCalls Sold to close my final $TLT June 17th 32 calls for 4.05 (yesterday) and 5.05 (today). Bought for 1.48 in april and May.
UVXY puts coming in
#VXXGame I have been rolling underwater UVXY puts for weeks… in the end I would up really heavy on June 17th expiration, being short 18,17,15,14,13, and 12 puts expiring tomorrow. Imagine my luck that this is the week of the volatility pop!
BTC $UVXY June 17th 15 put for .40. Sold for 1.30 in March. Will scale out of more today and tomorrow, rolling anything that remains underwater.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign So I can sleep better, I closed the last borderline put spread… bought to close $SPX July 8th 1975/1950 puts spread for 2.95. Sold on June 9th for 1.30. I will sell a roll tomorrow or Friday.
NUGT call
#ContangoETFs Sold to Open NUGT July 29th 160 call for 9.50. Highest available strike.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to close $SPX June 16th 2025/2000 put spreads for .60. Sold for 1.75 on June 2nd. Closing early to avoid downside risk in light of Fed, VIX warning, and Friday AM settlement.
SPXM iron condor
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPXM July 17th 2000/2020/2100/2120 condors for 2.40. This is the roll from the June 15th put spread stopped earlier. Fairly tight range for a volatile week, so I will need to be adept if Janet or anything else gives us more big moves.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 15th 2060/2035 put spreads for 3.10. Sold last week for 1.70. One of those frustrating ones, with plenty of chances to close for breakeven or small profit, but it got away from me. Holding off on the roll until I see where SPX goes today.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign #CondorRoll Another 3-dollar stop hit, rolling into a condor.
Bought to close $SPX July 1st 1990/1965 put spreads for 3.00.
Sold to Open $SPX July 6th (Wednesday) 1825/1850/2160/2185 iron condor for 2.30, 1.5x position size.
SPX puts spreads stopped
I am stopping out on three put spreads, details to follow. Not sure about rolls yet.
TLT long calls
#LongCalls Sold to close $TLT June 17th 132 calls for 3.30. Bought for 1.48 (avg price) in April and May. Closed half my position; will leave half in case we get more upside this week, but won’t let us drop much.
Stock market or Brexit controlling the VIX?
It could be that the VIX and market volatility in the coming days will not be controlled as much by the market moves as it will be by the polling on the Brexit vote. It has been running neck and neck and may continue to do so into June 23rd’s vote.
It is widely believed that the UK’s exit from the EU would cause economic pain and market volatility. The “Leave It” campaign has been gaining in the polls which is possibly the reason for what we’ve seen Friday and today.
This would help explain the explosion we’ve seen in the VIX price which is not matched in its extreme by the indices. SPX is down less than .5%, while VIX has been up over 16% two days in a row. The last time the VIX was up over 16% was on Jan 7th, when SPX dropped 2.37%.
FB covered put
#ShortStock #CoveredPuts STO $FB July 8th 108 put for 1.20
UVXY still going up
Even with the bounce we’ve gotten on the SPX, VIX and UVXY barely retraced down at all.
Followed @Iceman on these just as the Warning was firing earlier.
STO UVXY June 17th 19 calls for .19
STO UVXY June 24th 22 call for .56
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 1910/1885 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2089. This order was in before the Warning fired.
Downside WARNING fired
#VIXIndicator The Bistro VIX indicator has fired a downside warning. This means there is a high probability of a correction in the coming days or weeks. The VIX has increased 25% within 2 days, hitting 18.30, which is 25% above Thursday’s close. That was the first signal. Then we crossed 18.75, which is 50% above the most recent VIX low (12.50 from April 20th). That was the second signal, and two signals equal a WARNING.
Be leery of the downside, careful with any rolls. Historically, a bigger correction usually occurs after two signals fire; it could be this week, or it could occur weeks from now. To negate this warning, we would need new highs on the S&P (above most recent high of 2120.55, set last week), or the VIX closing three consecutive days below the 78.6% Fib retracement, or 14.32 (based on VIX intraday high of 21.01).
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 2175/2200 call spreads for 1.80. Trying something slightly different, selling calls at the bell on a Monday, even with market down. Premium seems to drain quickly from calls as the week progresses, so I think what I get here will be better than what I can get with SPX at 2100 later in the week. We shall see. But in any case, comfortably above all-time highs.
Bistro VIX Indicator for Monday 6/13 (always available in the right-hand column >>> )
Friday’s move in the VIX was the biggest one-day change since January 7th, but fell short of firing a warning signal.
Monday’s signal levels in the VIX that would fire a Downside Warning are 18.30 (25% above 2-day closing low), and 18.75 (50% above Apr 20 low).
Options Expiration 6/10/16
— Expiring —
DUST 22 call
SPX 2135/2160 call spreads
SPX 2090/2070 put spreads
Have great weekend!
Never use auto-STOPS on spreads
#SPXcampaign Here’s a good example of why you should avoid automated stops on spreads, especially SPX spreads. This is a screen shot from my broker I just took. It’s the spread I sold this morning, 2090/2070. Bid is .15 and ask ia 10.45, so Mid is 5.30! If I had put a 3.00 auto-stop on it, it would have survived the whole day until a few minutes ago. Of course, the bid/ask can get wacky when it’s about to expire in 30 minutes (and also first thing in the morning, and after hours), but this kind of anomaly can happen at any time and slam you out of your spread with a horrible fill.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 15th 2060/2035 put spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2093. Expires Wednesday at the close. Thirty points down in three days could easily happen, so if we drop further today and/or don’t bounce Monday I will roll this.
SPX puts
Getting close to having a roll out on today’s spread. This spread will move up in price VERY fast if we keep dropping. Be careful.
VIX soaring
Pretty big VIX increase on the day, going through 2D Bollinger bands. Looks like biggest 1-day percentage increase of the year; but still short of the 25% needed to fire the Bistro VIX Indicator… 17.60 is that level.
If only I had bought the VIX future two days ago when I posted it!
VXX game day
#VXXGame Finally some action to offset my puts that have been underwater and ITM for weeks…
Following @Iceman…
STO UVXY July 1st 25 calls for .43
STO UVXY July 8th 22 calls for .60
STO UVXY July 22nd 22 calls for 1.00
