New gap highs for NUGT and GLD this morning. Also for TLT. With bonds AND gold spiking to new highs, how is it the stock market still headed up?
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX Chart & VIX Indicator are Updated
Can you say “whipsaw.” That’s what happened to me this week. WAY to many arrows on my chart!
UVXY & KOLD calls closed
#VXXGame BTC UVXY July 8th 22 calls for .04. Sold for .60 on 6/10.
BTC UVXY July 8th 25 call for .05 (earlier). Sold for 1.00 on 6/24.
BTC KOLD Aug 18th 265 call for .20. Sold for 14.00 on Jan 19th. Now let with a couple of Aug puts at breakeven, nothing else in KOLD.
NUGT hitting its highest level…
NUGT hitting its highest level since May 2015
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 6th 2160/2185 call spreads for .10. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.30 on June 14th.
SPX calls Stopped and rolled
#SPXcampaign Bought to close July 22nd 2115/2140 call spreads for 8.70. Sold for 1.45 on Tuesday.
Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2010/2035/2165/2190 iron condor for 6.05, 1.5x position size.
Also, Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2100/2125 call spreads for 10.50. Sold for 1.50 on Tuesday. Will wait to roll tomorrow or later.
There is no doubt I made a mistake on Friday and Monday by using #ReverseRoll and #CondorRoll strategies with stopped put spreads. I expected the down move to be at last a few days, not only two, followed by a 100-point rally by Thursday. The #SPXcampaign rules say to roll further out in the same direction, with only some consideration given to reverse or condor rolls. Had I rolled everything into puts, I’d be golden now. As it is, all of my put spreads have been closed and I am very pressured on the call side. Now, at this ridiculously extended level, I have no choice but to sell puts or condors as my margin will not allow more call spreads of sufficient size. There is little sense to be made of this market; all you can do is “roll” with it.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 29th 1775/1750 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 last Friday.
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 1700/1675 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.35 on Monday.
That clears me of all put spreads. Certainly did not expect such a massive and quick reversal. I am now nursing too many call spreads, but will keep rolling up until we get a pullback.
UVXY put
#VXXGame STO UVXY July 29th 9 put for 1.40
New all-time lows in UVXY
First time we’ve had a new low since June 7th. VXX still a dollar above its all-time ow from June 7th, which shows the contango power of the UVXY.
SPX expiration
#SPXcampaign Expired last night: $SPX July 29th 1950/1925 put spreads. Sold for 1.34 (avg price) last Friday.
SPX campaign Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
Interesting comment on Fast Money from Tom Lee, who makes a lot of accurate market calls. He said their research showed that since 1940, all 10 times the market has gone down over 5% in 2 days, while also being above the 200-ma when it started, the markets recovered within six months, with an average up move of 10%. If that 100% performance sustains, we will see new highs by the end of the year.
SPX calls rolled
#SPXcampaign #Rolling Well it turned out to be a mistake doing a #ReverseRoll for stopped puts on Monday. Going farther out in time for this roll so I can be at a comfortable distance OTM.
Bought to close $SPX July 8th 2075/2100 call spreads for 9.60. Sold for 3.00 on Monday.
Sold to Open $SPX August 18th 2130/2155 call spreads for 6.35 (1.5x position size).
NUGT roll out
#ContangoETFs Rolling breached short call into a strangle:
BTC NUGT July 15th 120 call for 15.40 (sold for 11.00 on June 3rd)
STO NUGT August 5th 80/150 strangle for 15.80
Also, new position:
STO NUGT August 19th 175 call for 10.70 (highest strike)
SKEW history
Below I’ve compiled a daily chart of the SKEW since 2013 to show how accurate it can be. Most peaks in the SKEW (above 140) are followed by corrections. We don’t always get a signal; the August 2015 crash was preceded by no SKEW peak. But when it does peak, a correction almost always follows. Slightly less reliable but still significant are signals below 120… we usually get a strong rally. 10/15/14 and 9/30/15 are good examples, with rallies beginning the very same day that brought us back to pre-correction highs.
SPX Fib resistance
Today’s peak in SPX (thus far) is the 61.8 Fib retracement from the Pre- and Post-Brexit plunge. That could be a potential resistance level from going higher. Or if we break above 2070, it isn’t.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2155/2180 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2066.
Put spreads closed this morning
#spxcampaign
Bought to close July 14th 1850/1825 puts for .20. Sold June 16th as part of iron condor for 2.45.
Bought to close July 14th 1860/1835 puts for .20. Sold June 16th for 1.50.
Bought to close July 22nd 1800/1775 puts for .20. Sold Monday as part of iron condor for 2.70
SKEW hits all-time high
The SKEW index was created by CBOE in 2011 to help deal with risk of large down moves in SPX. It makes only one reading per day, and yesterday’s reding of 153.66 was the highest since they started publishing readings. (see more inf o on SKEW here: http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/introduction.aspx)
Typically, reading above 135 are bearish, and readings below 120 are bullish.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator are updated
Dead cat bounce or did we already bottom?
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2175/2200 calls for .10. Sold for 1.90 on June 13th.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 2180/2205 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.35 on June 20th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 2100/2125 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2023. I am more comfortable being short calls than puts, even below the highs, because rolling will be easy if we continue to rally.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 8th 2175/2200 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.65 on June 6th. Closed for margin purposes.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 2115/2140 call spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2023.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 6th 1850/1825 puts spreads for .20. Sold as part of a condor-roll on 6/14 for 2.30.
#SPXcampaign chart and VIX Indicator…
#SPXcampaign chart and VIX Indicator have been updated. Have a good night, y’all!
NUGT and FB
Earlier, STO NUGT July 22nd 80 put for 3.90.
Also, STO FB July 22nd 106 covered put for 1.70. Definitely too early on that one.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 30th 1970/1925 put spreads for 4.75. Sold for 2.10 on June 17th. This one was too close for comfort to leave overnight. I am planning on rolling on the next significant move in either direction.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 8th 2160/2185 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.30 on June 16th.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 1775/1800/2110/2135 for 2.70, 1.5x position size. This is a roll from the July 14th spread stopped earlier.
I now have all stopped spreads rolled, so all premium lost has been replaced with further out spreads.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX July 29th 1675/1700/2125/2150 iron condors for 2.35, 1.5x position size. Rolled from July 22nd put spread stopped earlier.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 14th 1910/1885 put spreads for 4.00. Sold for 1.40 on June 13th.
Turnaround Tuesday may be in…
Turnaround Tuesday may be in order. Market rarely bottoms on a Friday. Be careful getting too short today… may have a better chance tomorrow on a bounce. But I’m girding for any possibility.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 1875/1850 put spreads for 3.40. Sold on Friday for 1.50.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 8th 2075/2100 call spreads for 3.00. Roll from puts I just stopped. I am comfortable with this even if we are at a bottom, as the call roll up will not be too difficult.
Put spread stopped
#SPXcampaign Stair-stepping lower… unable to get out on the bounces so now I’m past my normal stop level on a few spreads. Working on rolls, likely in calls or strangles.
Bought to close $SPX July 1st 1950/1925 put spreads for 4.35. Sold for 1.25 on May 31st.
Futures well off lows; VIX…
Futures well off lows; VIX barely budging and UVXY opening flat. Gold coming down.
Bistro SPXcampaign position chart
My positions in the #SPXcampaign are now visible in the chart linked in the right hand column; just click on the image to open it full screen.
You can use your browser’s zoom function on the chart since the print is small. I have included a key to all of the info included in each spread. I will add each day’s spreads in text form at right before I’m able to update the chart.
Please feel free to ask any questions; I know it may be confusing! I will be providing updated webinars and more info soon.
Options Expiration 6/24/16
#OptionsExpiration Nail-biter of a close with short 2040’s, will sell a roll next week. With more VIX Indicator signals firing today, further drops in the market are very likely.
— Expiring —
NUGT 50 puts
SPX 2135/2160 call spreads
SPX 2025/2000 put spreads
SPX 2020/1995 put spreads
UVXY 22 call
UVXY 12 put
— Cash Settlement —
SPX 2040/2015 put spreads: looks like about 2.70 debit when 2040 puts are exercised
— Max Loss —
FDX (#Earnings) 157.50/162.50/165/170 iron condor, 1.70 loss.
SPX still moving down, put spread order filled
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 1775/1750 put spreads for 1.30. I put this order in this morning… didn’t come close to a fill all day but just filled now at 4:14 ET as S&P ticked down further after hours.
NUGT roll
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT June 24th 99 call for 17.00. Sold for 3.50 on May 25th
STO NUGT July 22nd 130 call for 12.70.
Tried to sell a put too but no fill, so I will add it Monday.
Escaped with my 2040’s in…
Escaped with my 2040’s in tact. Now trying to sell a call spread.
Looking ugly, folks. Any bounce…
Looking ugly, folks. Any bounce is the chance to get out.
Bistro VIX indicator Archive
Bistro VIX Indicator for Monday 6/27
UVXY and NUGT fills
#VXXGame STO UVXY July 8th 25 call for 1.00
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT July 29th 175 call for 5.90 (new highest strike)
SPX same day puts
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 2020/1995 put spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2047. 27 points OTM with three hours left… can it hold? Having to watch my 2040/2015 spreads more closely.
SPX short-term puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 29th (Wednesday) 1950/1925 puts spreads for 1.25-1.40. I have been scaling in, last spread order for 1.50 not filled yet.
More UVXY
#VXXGame STO UVXY July 29th 25 call for 1.10
STO UVXY July 15th 25 call for 1.00
Looking to sell another put…
Looking to sell another put spread expiring today, 2020/1995, on next push down. Still short at 2040 and 2025. Ready to roll if I have to.
FB & UVXY
#CoveredPuts STO $FB July 15th 109 put for 1.30
#VXXGame STO $UVXY July 22nd 25 call for 1.00.
VIX indicator
It fired another signal today, by rising 25% above yesterday’s close. Next signal is at 25.00; the morning spike got close but it has no fallen back. It did reach a new intraday high of 24.15.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign I closed these this morning as it released a huge chunk of margin:
BTC $SPX July 1st 2170 2195 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on May 31st.
BTC $SPX June 30th 2160/2185 call spreads for .20. Sold for 3.90 on June 7th (as a roll)
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 1875/1850 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2058.
If you have no put…
If you have no put spreads expiring today, the 2025/2000 is still going for over 2.00. If you believe we won’t be dropping 90 points today, sell it!
Big move, maybe not yuuuge move
As I suspected, we will be opening well off the overnight lows, and right on the edge of my $SPX 2040/2015 put spreads. 2025/2000 spreads look to be in better shape. I removed all close orders for call spreads last night, otherwise they likely would have all closed in pre-market. I wanted to keep them open to offset margin stress on put spreads, and also to save money as many will now likely expire worthless. I will look to sell some deeper put spreads this morning. And some UVXY calls.
SPX IBF closed in pre-market…
SPX IBF closed in pre-market for LESS than max loss
#IronButterfly For my $SPX 2085/2100/2115 iron butterfly, I knew overnight volatility would create some wild swings, so i put in an order to close the 2100/2085 put spread for 14.00 and it filled at 3:38am ET. That’s a dollar less than I would have loss with cash settlement, so mission accomplished; $100 loss rather than $200. I recommend trying something like this for the market open when prices will be going wild.
Looks like we are on…
Looks like we are on track for the biggest one day drop since August 2011, in percentage terms, and the biggest point drop since the 2008 crash. Who knows what the next few hours overnight will bring? Will have a coupe of ITM put spreads to deal with tomorrow.
And down we go again……
And down we go again… It seems to me that London will take the longest to tabulate, and the countryside is the cause for the Leave vote leading at this time. For anyone trading futures after hours, you could make a fortune on this…
Them’s some big swings
SPX rollercoaster
SPX shot up to 2120 in the first couple hours after closing, then plunged back to 2100 when the Leave vote scored better than expected in Northeast England.
IV that must be sold
#SPXcampaign #Brexit With an expected move of 38 points over the next 24 hours, you don’t want to miss out on the premium that’s available. Even though I already sold the 2025/2000 put spreads yesterday, I am also selling the 2040/2015 spreads now… 70 points OTM, 1.50 or more. You have until 4:15 ET to get a trade.
Joining the IBF party
#IronButterfly I can’t be left out, so I sold a 2100-centered iron butterfly for tomorrow. To be different, mine is 15-wide, risking 2.00 to make 13.00.
Sold to Open $SPX 2085/2100/2115 iron butterfly for 13.00.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 24th 1975/1950 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on May 31st. I actually would have canceled this order and let these expire had I remembered this order to close was still working.
Put spread I sold now…
Put spread I sold now going for 2.60. Take it, or drop to lower strikes. I am adding.
#TheTradingLife I made my last…
#TheTradingLife
I made my last trade from here. Manzanita, OR
SPX condor completed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 2025/2000 put spreads for 1.90. Incredible premium for a 2-day trade. Completed a condor with calls sold a few minutes earlier.
SPX same-week calls
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX June 24th 2135/2160 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2099. Expire in two days. I don’t believe a Remain vote for Brexit will drive the market this high this fast, but I can roll if it does.
FDX earnings adjust
#Earnings Bought to close $FDX June 24th 165 calls for .20. Sold as part of condor yesterday for 3.50. This leaves me with only the put spread, meaning a rally above 162.5 by Friday gets me out of the condor for free. Max profit now 3.30, unless I’m able to sell the 170 call on a strong rally, then I get more.
FDX earnings decision
#Earnings I looked at wide iron condors, but preferred the risk/reward on an iron butterfly, or in this case a very tight iron condor. Risking $150 to make $350, shooting for the week to end with a less than 3% move:
Sold to Open FDX June 24th 157.5/162.5/165/170 iron condors for 3.50. May add more contracts as day progresses, depending on intraday action.
SPX sideways + VXX moving…
SPX sideways + VXX moving up = market should move down today
FDX earnings
#Earnings Fed X is normally a small mover on earnings, averaging 3.3% moves. So I would like to try a neutral trade, but last quarter it moved UP 11%, its biggest single-day earnings move since 2002. That gives me pause…
UVXY and NUGT
#VXXGame STO UVXY July 8th 11 put for 1.51
STO UVXY July 22nd 10 put for 1.40
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT July 22nd 55 put for 2.50
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open July 22nd 2180/2205 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at 2097.
Options Expiration June 17, 2016
#OptionsExpiration — I am bearish moving into the remainder of the month, but especially early next week as fears about Brexit gain more steam… Yesterday’s murder in the UK actually calmed the markets, as morbid as that sounds, but as the vote draws closer I believe volatility will remain, but then possibly calm after the Thursday vote finally happens. But in any case, I will be selling both sides of SPX.
— Expiring —
FB 110 covered put
NUGT 65, 70, and 72 puts
UVXY 19 and 30 calls
SPX 1940/1915 put spreads (expired at the open)
SPXPM 2000/2020/2100/2120 iron condors (expired at the close)
UVXY puts gone
#VXXGame BTC UVXY June 17th 18 put for 4.18. Sold for 1.95 on March 3.
BTC UVXY June 17th 15 put for 1.22. Sold for 1.30 on march 18th.
BTC UVXY June 17th 14 put for .22. Sold for 1.26 on April 6th
I will look to replace these next week, with calls if market is down, puts if market is up.
