#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2150/2175 call spreads for 8.00. Sold for 5.75 on May 24th. I will be selling rolls on this and others in the coming days.
Author Archives: Jeff
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2010/1985 puts for 1.25, with SPX at 2138.
SPX chart updated… getting pretty…
SPX chart updated… getting pretty hairy on the upside.
Bistro VIX Indicator: Upside Warning fired
#VIXIndicator An UPSIDE WARNNG fired on Friday, with three consecutive closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement line (from the recent VIX low of April 20 to high of June 27th). Watch for more upside and new all-time highs in SPX before things slow down or reverse.
We are now also establishing new VIX lows by which to measure the next correction. Friday’s low was 13.19, with a close of 13.20.
Monday’s levels that would reverse course and fire new Downside signals are 16.50 (25% above the 2-day closing low), and 19.79 (50% above July 8th low).
No expirations
#VXXGame Asleep at the wheel, forgot about this one until right before close:
BTC UVXY July 8th 11 put for 3.70. Sold for 1.51 on June 20th. I’ll take the loss as I don’t really care to roll UVXY at such a low levels. Bring on the reverse split!
NUGT call
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Aug 12th 250 call for 8.10
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2075/2050 put spreads for 2.90. This adds to my rolling and also better balances my puts vs. calls ratio.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2150/2175 call spreads for 8.50. Sold as part of iron condor for 7.40 on July 1. Since we breached 2130, I will be looking to close 2150/2175 spreads. Just this one for today.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2020/1995 put spreads for 1.40. This is my second standard spread for the Aug 5th expiry. I am holding off on my second call spread for next week.
SPX partial roll
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open a handful of $SPX Aug 12th 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.75, as a partial roll of call spread stopped earlier. I tripled my position size, which is fine since I am heavier calls than puts. This covers a bit more than half of my cost to close the stopped calls; will add more rolls today and next week.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 1970/1945 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Tuesday.
SPX calls crushed
#SPXcampaign Got crushed because no pullback would come. I am working on a roll, which will mostly be in puts; with Upside Warning firing today, I anticipate new all time highs next week. On whatever pullbacks we get, I will be aggressive at selling puts and exiting call spreads (but still also selling super high call spreads).
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2125/2150 call spreads for 13.35. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.40 on June 27th.
Upside Warning probably coming…
Barring a reversal on day and a close lower, today will be the third consecutive day where the VIX will close below the Fib 78.6% retracement line (from the recent VIX low of April 20 to high of June 27th). This will trigger an Upside Warning. Since we are already close to both the recent SPX high and the all-time high, it’s hard to say how far and how strongly it can run. Of course, it could also be a head-fake. But for now, VIX is telling us the risk is more to the upside.
Out KOLD
#ContangoETFs Dumping my final KOLD options to avoid the forward split and further downside. This leaves me flat KOLD.
BTC KOLD Aug 19th 80 put for 2.00. Sold for 2.55 on 1/26.
BTC KOLD Aug 19th 70 put for .60. Sold for 2.00 on 1/29.
New lows…
…on UVXY, fourth day of a new low in July already, and a new low in VXX, first time since June 7th.
UVXY and NUGT closed
#VXXGame BTC July 22nd 25 and 22 calls for .05
BTC July 15th 25 call for .05
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT July 22nd 55 put for .05.
Jobs blowout, gold dumps
Looks like the job market is giving us a bigger whipsaw than the market… 287,000 in June after a (downwardly revised) May number of only 6,000.
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
I’ve been sticking to the #SPXcampaign roll rules, and as you can see by the number of arrows, things can get quite messy. As long as you can track it, the system can withstand a whipsaw market like we’re experiencing.
As for the VIX, today was the second consecutive day below the 78.6% retracement. It will depend on the market’s reaction to the job numbers Friday as to whether we’ll get an Upside warning or get some more pullback.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 2000/2025/2150/2175 iron condors for 4.40, 1.5x position size. This is a roll from the call spread stopped earlier. I used a Wednesday expiration since I already have too many spreads crowded on the July 29th expiry.
UVXY closing
#VXXGame BTC UVXY Sept 30 call for .60. Sold for 3.20 on 4/28.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to Close $SPX 2110/2135 call spreads for 7.50. Sold as part of an iron-condor roll for 2.70 on June 27th. Working on a roll to a new iron condor now. This was one I tried to slip by without Stopping, but this market continues to threaten higher so using this pullback to close ahead of jobs number tomorrow.
NUGT action
#ContangoETFs I remain wary of a pullback in NUGT, so I’m tempering my aggressiveness on the first down day in almost two weeks.
STO NUGT July 29th 105 put for 3.20
STO NUGT Aug 5th 120 put for 9.00
also:
BTC NUGT July 15th 60 put for .05. Sold for 2.85 on June 3rd.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator…
SPX chart and VIX Indicator are updated
NUGT strangle roll of the day…
…not because it’s my best trade of the day. But because I have to make one of these rolls EVERY SINGLE DAY.
BTC NUGT July 29th 160 call for 27.55. Sold for 9.50 on June 15th.
STO NUGT Aug 5th 205 call for 15.00
STO NUGT Aug 5th 135 put for 11.60
Highs and lows today
New 17-month high on NUGT / all-time low in DUST
New 28-month high in GLD.
New all-time low in UVXY.
New all-time high in TLT/all-time low in TBT.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2082.
SPX same day puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 6th 2065 puts for .20. Sold as part of the 2065/2050 put spread for 1.50 two hours ago.
FB covered put roll
#Earnings #shortstock
BTC $FB July 8th 108 put for .05. Sold for 1.20 on June 13th.
STO $FB July 29th 105 put for 1.40. This is after earnings but since the cost basis on my short stock is now above 108.00, I’m okay being assigned at 105.
SPX same day spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX July 6th 2065/2050 put spreads for 1.50.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator…
SPX chart and VIX Indicator have been updated. Have a good night, all!
NUGT strangle roll
#ContangoETFs #strangleroll
STO $NUGT Aug 19th 105/200 strangle for 24.60. Rolled from Aug 5th 150 call for a 1.60 credit.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 1970/1945 put spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2082.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2165/2190 call spreads for .20. Sold as part of an iron condor roll for 2.45 on June 16th.
SPX chart is now updated…
SPX chart is now updated from Friday’s close
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Aug 5th 150 call for 23.00. Sold for 11.90 last Wednesday. Will roll at a later time or date. Would prefer to see some stability before adding anymore to this monster.
SPX puts sold, calls closed
#SPXcampaign
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 1940/1910 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2089.
Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2170/2195 call spreads for .20. Sold for 2.20 as a roll on June 13th.
NUGT, can you take me higher?
#ContangoETFs New strikes added…
Up to 210 on the weeklys, 220 on the monthlys.
Options Expiration 7/1/16
What does the red color…
What does the red color on the SPX 5-min chart mean? Looks unfamiliar to me.
SPX condor sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open July 29th 1975/1950 put spreads for 1.30, and 2170/2195 call spreads for 2.10… full iron condor for 3.40.
And we continue to rip higher. Whenever this market decides to pullback it will be a good day for me. Meantime, I’ll manage the pain.
SKEW index remains high; bonds and gold high. New lows in UVXY.
No one sold TSLA puts?…
No one sold TSLA puts? I guess market doesn’t care about self-driving cars killing us. Soon they will rule the world and find man insignificant.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 1950/1975/2150/2175 iron condors for 7.40. This is a roll from July 14th spread that was stopped yesterday.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to close $SPX July 1st 2150 short calls for .05. Sold as the 2150/2175 call spread for 3.95 on May 25th. This was an oversized position sold as a roll (14 contracts). By closing the shorts and leaving the longs in place, this released $86K in margin for today! Portfolio margin can be your friend, but it can also throw your account out of whack if you are too heavy on one side of the market. This reflects my oversized short-market position with call spreads.
New gap highs for NUGT…
New gap highs for NUGT and GLD this morning. Also for TLT. With bonds AND gold spiking to new highs, how is it the stock market still headed up?
SPX Chart & VIX Indicator are Updated
Can you say “whipsaw.” That’s what happened to me this week. WAY to many arrows on my chart!
UVXY & KOLD calls closed
#VXXGame BTC UVXY July 8th 22 calls for .04. Sold for .60 on 6/10.
BTC UVXY July 8th 25 call for .05 (earlier). Sold for 1.00 on 6/24.
BTC KOLD Aug 18th 265 call for .20. Sold for 14.00 on Jan 19th. Now let with a couple of Aug puts at breakeven, nothing else in KOLD.
NUGT hitting its highest level…
NUGT hitting its highest level since May 2015
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 6th 2160/2185 call spreads for .10. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.30 on June 14th.
SPX calls Stopped and rolled
#SPXcampaign Bought to close July 22nd 2115/2140 call spreads for 8.70. Sold for 1.45 on Tuesday.
Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2010/2035/2165/2190 iron condor for 6.05, 1.5x position size.
Also, Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2100/2125 call spreads for 10.50. Sold for 1.50 on Tuesday. Will wait to roll tomorrow or later.
There is no doubt I made a mistake on Friday and Monday by using #ReverseRoll and #CondorRoll strategies with stopped put spreads. I expected the down move to be at last a few days, not only two, followed by a 100-point rally by Thursday. The #SPXcampaign rules say to roll further out in the same direction, with only some consideration given to reverse or condor rolls. Had I rolled everything into puts, I’d be golden now. As it is, all of my put spreads have been closed and I am very pressured on the call side. Now, at this ridiculously extended level, I have no choice but to sell puts or condors as my margin will not allow more call spreads of sufficient size. There is little sense to be made of this market; all you can do is “roll” with it.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 29th 1775/1750 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 last Friday.
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 1700/1675 put spreads for .10. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.35 on Monday.
That clears me of all put spreads. Certainly did not expect such a massive and quick reversal. I am now nursing too many call spreads, but will keep rolling up until we get a pullback.
UVXY put
#VXXGame STO UVXY July 29th 9 put for 1.40
New all-time lows in UVXY
First time we’ve had a new low since June 7th. VXX still a dollar above its all-time ow from June 7th, which shows the contango power of the UVXY.
SPX expiration
#SPXcampaign Expired last night: $SPX July 29th 1950/1925 put spreads. Sold for 1.34 (avg price) last Friday.
SPX campaign Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
Interesting comment on Fast Money from Tom Lee, who makes a lot of accurate market calls. He said their research showed that since 1940, all 10 times the market has gone down over 5% in 2 days, while also being above the 200-ma when it started, the markets recovered within six months, with an average up move of 10%. If that 100% performance sustains, we will see new highs by the end of the year.
SPX calls rolled
#SPXcampaign #Rolling Well it turned out to be a mistake doing a #ReverseRoll for stopped puts on Monday. Going farther out in time for this roll so I can be at a comfortable distance OTM.
Bought to close $SPX July 8th 2075/2100 call spreads for 9.60. Sold for 3.00 on Monday.
Sold to Open $SPX August 18th 2130/2155 call spreads for 6.35 (1.5x position size).
NUGT roll out
#ContangoETFs Rolling breached short call into a strangle:
BTC NUGT July 15th 120 call for 15.40 (sold for 11.00 on June 3rd)
STO NUGT August 5th 80/150 strangle for 15.80
Also, new position:
STO NUGT August 19th 175 call for 10.70 (highest strike)
SKEW history
Below I’ve compiled a daily chart of the SKEW since 2013 to show how accurate it can be. Most peaks in the SKEW (above 140) are followed by corrections. We don’t always get a signal; the August 2015 crash was preceded by no SKEW peak. But when it does peak, a correction almost always follows. Slightly less reliable but still significant are signals below 120… we usually get a strong rally. 10/15/14 and 9/30/15 are good examples, with rallies beginning the very same day that brought us back to pre-correction highs.
SPX Fib resistance
Today’s peak in SPX (thus far) is the 61.8 Fib retracement from the Pre- and Post-Brexit plunge. That could be a potential resistance level from going higher. Or if we break above 2070, it isn’t.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2155/2180 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2066.
Put spreads closed this morning
#spxcampaign
Bought to close July 14th 1850/1825 puts for .20. Sold June 16th as part of iron condor for 2.45.
Bought to close July 14th 1860/1835 puts for .20. Sold June 16th for 1.50.
Bought to close July 22nd 1800/1775 puts for .20. Sold Monday as part of iron condor for 2.70
SKEW hits all-time high
The SKEW index was created by CBOE in 2011 to help deal with risk of large down moves in SPX. It makes only one reading per day, and yesterday’s reding of 153.66 was the highest since they started publishing readings. (see more inf o on SKEW here: http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/introduction.aspx)
Typically, reading above 135 are bearish, and readings below 120 are bullish.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator are updated
Dead cat bounce or did we already bottom?
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2175/2200 calls for .10. Sold for 1.90 on June 13th.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 2180/2205 call spreads for .15. Sold for 1.35 on June 20th.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 14th 2100/2125 call spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2023. I am more comfortable being short calls than puts, even below the highs, because rolling will be easy if we continue to rally.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 8th 2175/2200 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.65 on June 6th. Closed for margin purposes.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 2115/2140 call spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2023.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 6th 1850/1825 puts spreads for .20. Sold as part of a condor-roll on 6/14 for 2.30.
#SPXcampaign chart and VIX Indicator…
#SPXcampaign chart and VIX Indicator have been updated. Have a good night, y’all!
NUGT and FB
Earlier, STO NUGT July 22nd 80 put for 3.90.
Also, STO FB July 22nd 106 covered put for 1.70. Definitely too early on that one.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX June 30th 1970/1925 put spreads for 4.75. Sold for 2.10 on June 17th. This one was too close for comfort to leave overnight. I am planning on rolling on the next significant move in either direction.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 8th 2160/2185 call spreads for .10. Sold for 1.30 on June 16th.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 1775/1800/2110/2135 for 2.70, 1.5x position size. This is a roll from the July 14th spread stopped earlier.
I now have all stopped spreads rolled, so all premium lost has been replaced with further out spreads.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX July 29th 1675/1700/2125/2150 iron condors for 2.35, 1.5x position size. Rolled from July 22nd put spread stopped earlier.
SPX puts stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 14th 1910/1885 put spreads for 4.00. Sold for 1.40 on June 13th.
