#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2040/2015 put spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2160.
Author Archives: Jeff
NFLX, quite a dump… glad…
NFLX, quite a dump… glad I got no fill on my trade.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Earlier today:
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2165.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2160/2185 call spreads for 12.50, with SPX at 2164. This is another part of the roll from Friday’s stopped ATM spread.
NFLX trade
#Earnings ShortStrangle Going for $NFLX July 22nd 86/111 strange for 1.75, settle for 1.65-1.70. These strikes are outside the average move and the post-split moves.
NFLX earnings
#Earnings Here are the NFLX 5-day post-earnings moves over the last 12 quarters:
Mon 04/18/2016 AC -11.53%
Tue 01/19/2016 AC -6.64%
Wed 10/14/2015 AC -7.74%
Wed 07/15/2015 AC 12.65%
Wed 04/15/2015 AC 19.33%
Tue 01/20/2015 AC 25.41%
Wed 10/15/2014 AC -19.92%
Mon 07/21/2014 AC -6.65%
Mon 04/21/2014 AC -7.57%
Wed 01/22/2014 AC 14.23%
Mon 10/21/2013 AC -7.59%
Mon 07/22/2013 AC -5.97%
Average move: 12.1%
At the current price of 98.60, the max up move would bring it to 123.65, max down move would bring it to 73.55. Average moves would be 86.67/110.53. TOS expected move is 88.80/108.40.
SPX partial roll
#SPXcampaign I have been riding a few ATM and ITM call spreads, waiting for a pullback or to roll. I closed this one on Friday as I don’t want to get closer to expiration, when rolling becomes tougher to impossible. Sold only a third of the roll for now, waiting to see the moves next week to add more.
Bought to close $SPX July 27th 2150/2175 call spreads for 13.60. Sold as part of a condor roll for 4.40 on July 7th.
Sold to Open $SPX August 12th 2055/2080/2160/2185 condor for 13.95, as a partial roll.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 2100/2075 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.50 on Wednesday.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 20th 2135/2110 put spreads for 1.50, with SPX at 2156. Aggressive position expiring on Wednesday. I don’t think we will crash down today, but I am ready to roll these if things get worse.
New VIX low hit intraday…
New VIX low hit intraday (12.48), lowest since August 10, 2015.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Right after the bell, Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2035/2010 puts for .30. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 6.05 on June 30th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Was trying to bottom pick the midday pullback, but got stuck chasing it back up instead. Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 2130/2105 put spreads for 2.60. This offsets an ATM call spread for this Wednesday expiry… margin free for the Reg T accounts.
SPX Upside Warning data
I have been compiling data on the #VIXindicator. I hope to present it to everyone in a webinar soon, but since we are in an Upside Warning now, I wanted to share some points of interest.
(An Upside Warning fires when the VIX closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement for three consecutive days)
1. 33 corrections since Nov 1999, as determined by the VIX Indicator’s downside signals. These corrections average 12.5% each. Smallest was 3% and largest was 53.7% (2008-9).
2. Of those corrections, an Upside Warning fired 28 of the 33 times.
3. In 27 out of 28 times, the SPX continued higher after the Warning.
4. The average SPX bottom to top recovery was 16.4%. The average rise AFTER the Warning was 6.40%. This means that the Upside Warning captured an average of 38.9% of each recovery.
5. The average amount of time between an Upside Warning and the next SPX high is 2.5 months.
For instance, in the recovery we are now in: SPX low was 1991 on June 27, high was 2169 on July 14. That is an 8.9% recovery. The Upside Warning fired Friday, July 8, when we closed at 2120.90. Since then, we topped out at 1.83% higher, which means the warning caught 21% of the move so far.
21% is below the 38.9% average, so more upside is definitely possible. But pullbacks can and do happen during Upside Warnings. A new spike in the VIX that triggers a Downside signal would end the Upside Warning.
In summary, when an Upside Warning fires it is almost guaranteed that more upside will come, and it could last several weeks.
New VIX low notched earlier…
New VIX low notched earlier (12.72), but back up to flat now. Another day of all-time lows in VXX and UVXY.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Highest calls I have ever sold, but I’ve reduced my position size for now. I will use a 3.00 stop on this one.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.30
SPX, a stop and a close
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2165/2190 call spreads for 12.10. Sold for 1.45 on July 6th. (ouch)
Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 1975/1950 put spreads for .30. Sold as part of condor-roll for 7.40 on July 1.
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs Taking profits early since it was hogging margin. NUGT has actually been manageable for last week or so. When will the next mega-move happen?
BTC NUGT Aug 5th 205 call for 5.40. Sold for 15.00 on July 6th.
Hey, No Pressure
#SPXcampaign Having to close a few spreads to manage margin pressure and the sheer insanity of this move. As a group of traders I know are calling it, the B.S.C. market. A nocturnal blind flying mammal defecating in its lunacy.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 2180/2200 call spreads for 9.35. Sold Tuesday for 7.30.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2200/2225 call spreads for 5.90. Sold for 1.75 on Monday.
Bought to close $SPX July 27th 2025/2000 put spreads for .30. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 4.40 on July 7th (don’t ask about the call side)
And if you’re feeling the pressure like me, sit back and watch the visual lyrics… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9L0IUG8gKQ
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 1940/1915 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.40 on July 5th.
NUGT call sold
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Aug 19th 250 call for 7.00
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close SPX July 27th 2000/1975 puts for .20. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 4.40 on July 7th.
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 1975/1950 puts for .20. Sold for 1.30 on July 1st.
SPX put roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 2100/2075 put spreads for 1.50, double-sized position. It seems funny to be selling a put spread at 2100, but there you have it. I think most likely direction over the rest of July is up, but a pullback could be in the cards. If any puts get in trouble it will mean wonderful things for my pressured call spreads.
SPX Puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2035/2010 put spreads for 1.30.
…And SPX Dailys are next
I have been joking for a couple years that we will someday have “Daily” options. No longer a joke…
Closing some puts
#VXXGame BTC UVXY July 29th 25 call for .05. Sold for 1.00 on June 24th. This clears me of all UVXY calls. I now have a small amount of stock and one ITM put.
#ShortStock #CoveredPuts BTC $FB July 22nd 106 put for .05. Sold for 1.70 on June 27th. Will look to replace with a new put on weakness. Earnings are July 27th (AC).
VIX stabilizing?
Yes, I’m wanting some down side, so of course I’m engaging in some wishful thinking. I do believe we will be above 2200, probably closer to 2300 by year’s end. But when will we get pullbacks? I need one now to adjust my spreads higher. One thing I’m seeing today is a flat VIX. It opened at a new low but rose back to flat with the SPX pullback that started around 9:50 ET. Now as we’re higher, VIX is flat. I’d think less of this if we were down below 12, but 13.60 is not really low. Could this mean some downside or at least stabilization into monthly expiration?
NUGT puts
#ContangoETFs Bought to close NUGT Sept 40 puts for .40. Sold for 5.40 on May 19th.
Sold to Open NUGT July 29th 120 put for 4.50.
SPX roll call sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2180/2200 call spreads for 7.30 as a roll. Crazy, i know, but is it crazier than this bull run? May be stopped out and rolled again if we get much above 2160.
Dow joins S&P…
…in all time highs. Nasdaq not too far behind… Russell is the laggard.
VIX Upside Warning continues
As is the historical norm, more upside is expected after the VIX completes three consecutive closes below the 78.6% Fib line. That happened Friday, and today we’re looking at our 8th rally out of the last 10 days. How much farther we go is hard to tell… Upside Warning usually fires about midway between the bottom and top of the SPX run, but there are fewer examples to draw from when we are in all-time-high territory.
In other news, of course, we should open with a fifth consecutive day of all-time lows in UVXY and the third consecutive one in VXX.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Last night before the close: Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2155/2180 call spreads for 7.50. Holding off on rolls until freight train slows. Also have one ITM call spread in August… since it is still a ways to expiry, rolling is still possible if no pullback comes within a week or so. Not ideal to roll ITM, of course, but I left this one behind as I focused on rolling more immediate expiries.
NUGT put
#ContangoETFs Adding more to put side as it balances my deltas and gives me a margin credit.
STO NUGT Aug 12th 135 put for 12.60
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2200/2225 cal spreads for 1.75, with SPX at 2136.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2150/2175 call spreads for 8.00. Sold for 5.75 on May 24th. I will be selling rolls on this and others in the coming days.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2010/1985 puts for 1.25, with SPX at 2138.
SPX chart updated… getting pretty…
SPX chart updated… getting pretty hairy on the upside.
Bistro VIX Indicator: Upside Warning fired
#VIXIndicator An UPSIDE WARNNG fired on Friday, with three consecutive closes below the Fib 78.6% retracement line (from the recent VIX low of April 20 to high of June 27th). Watch for more upside and new all-time highs in SPX before things slow down or reverse.
We are now also establishing new VIX lows by which to measure the next correction. Friday’s low was 13.19, with a close of 13.20.
Monday’s levels that would reverse course and fire new Downside signals are 16.50 (25% above the 2-day closing low), and 19.79 (50% above July 8th low).
No expirations
#VXXGame Asleep at the wheel, forgot about this one until right before close:
BTC UVXY July 8th 11 put for 3.70. Sold for 1.51 on June 20th. I’ll take the loss as I don’t really care to roll UVXY at such a low levels. Bring on the reverse split!
NUGT call
#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Aug 12th 250 call for 8.10
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2075/2050 put spreads for 2.90. This adds to my rolling and also better balances my puts vs. calls ratio.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2150/2175 call spreads for 8.50. Sold as part of iron condor for 7.40 on July 1. Since we breached 2130, I will be looking to close 2150/2175 spreads. Just this one for today.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2020/1995 put spreads for 1.40. This is my second standard spread for the Aug 5th expiry. I am holding off on my second call spread for next week.
SPX partial roll
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open a handful of $SPX Aug 12th 2050/2025 put spreads for 2.75, as a partial roll of call spread stopped earlier. I tripled my position size, which is fine since I am heavier calls than puts. This covers a bit more than half of my cost to close the stopped calls; will add more rolls today and next week.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 22nd 1970/1945 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.25 on Tuesday.
SPX calls crushed
#SPXcampaign Got crushed because no pullback would come. I am working on a roll, which will mostly be in puts; with Upside Warning firing today, I anticipate new all time highs next week. On whatever pullbacks we get, I will be aggressive at selling puts and exiting call spreads (but still also selling super high call spreads).
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2125/2150 call spreads for 13.35. Sold as part of an iron condor for 2.40 on June 27th.
Upside Warning probably coming…
Barring a reversal on day and a close lower, today will be the third consecutive day where the VIX will close below the Fib 78.6% retracement line (from the recent VIX low of April 20 to high of June 27th). This will trigger an Upside Warning. Since we are already close to both the recent SPX high and the all-time high, it’s hard to say how far and how strongly it can run. Of course, it could also be a head-fake. But for now, VIX is telling us the risk is more to the upside.
Out KOLD
#ContangoETFs Dumping my final KOLD options to avoid the forward split and further downside. This leaves me flat KOLD.
BTC KOLD Aug 19th 80 put for 2.00. Sold for 2.55 on 1/26.
BTC KOLD Aug 19th 70 put for .60. Sold for 2.00 on 1/29.
New lows…
…on UVXY, fourth day of a new low in July already, and a new low in VXX, first time since June 7th.
UVXY and NUGT closed
#VXXGame BTC July 22nd 25 and 22 calls for .05
BTC July 15th 25 call for .05
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT July 22nd 55 put for .05.
Jobs blowout, gold dumps
Looks like the job market is giving us a bigger whipsaw than the market… 287,000 in June after a (downwardly revised) May number of only 6,000.
SPX Chart and VIX Indicator have been updated
I’ve been sticking to the #SPXcampaign roll rules, and as you can see by the number of arrows, things can get quite messy. As long as you can track it, the system can withstand a whipsaw market like we’re experiencing.
As for the VIX, today was the second consecutive day below the 78.6% retracement. It will depend on the market’s reaction to the job numbers Friday as to whether we’ll get an Upside warning or get some more pullback.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 2000/2025/2150/2175 iron condors for 4.40, 1.5x position size. This is a roll from the call spread stopped earlier. I used a Wednesday expiration since I already have too many spreads crowded on the July 29th expiry.
UVXY closing
#VXXGame BTC UVXY Sept 30 call for .60. Sold for 3.20 on 4/28.
SPX calls stopped
#SPXcampaign Bought to Close $SPX 2110/2135 call spreads for 7.50. Sold as part of an iron-condor roll for 2.70 on June 27th. Working on a roll to a new iron condor now. This was one I tried to slip by without Stopping, but this market continues to threaten higher so using this pullback to close ahead of jobs number tomorrow.
NUGT action
#ContangoETFs I remain wary of a pullback in NUGT, so I’m tempering my aggressiveness on the first down day in almost two weeks.
STO NUGT July 29th 105 put for 3.20
STO NUGT Aug 5th 120 put for 9.00
also:
BTC NUGT July 15th 60 put for .05. Sold for 2.85 on June 3rd.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator…
SPX chart and VIX Indicator are updated
NUGT strangle roll of the day…
…not because it’s my best trade of the day. But because I have to make one of these rolls EVERY SINGLE DAY.
BTC NUGT July 29th 160 call for 27.55. Sold for 9.50 on June 15th.
STO NUGT Aug 5th 205 call for 15.00
STO NUGT Aug 5th 135 put for 11.60
Highs and lows today
New 17-month high on NUGT / all-time low in DUST
New 28-month high in GLD.
New all-time low in UVXY.
New all-time high in TLT/all-time low in TBT.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2165/2190 call spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2082.
SPX same day puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 6th 2065 puts for .20. Sold as part of the 2065/2050 put spread for 1.50 two hours ago.
FB covered put roll
#Earnings #shortstock
BTC $FB July 8th 108 put for .05. Sold for 1.20 on June 13th.
STO $FB July 29th 105 put for 1.40. This is after earnings but since the cost basis on my short stock is now above 108.00, I’m okay being assigned at 105.
SPX same day spread
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX July 6th 2065/2050 put spreads for 1.50.
SPX chart and VIX Indicator…
SPX chart and VIX Indicator have been updated. Have a good night, all!
NUGT strangle roll
#ContangoETFs #strangleroll
STO $NUGT Aug 19th 105/200 strangle for 24.60. Rolled from Aug 5th 150 call for a 1.60 credit.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 22nd 1970/1945 put spreads for 1.25, with SPX at 2082.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2165/2190 call spreads for .20. Sold as part of an iron condor roll for 2.45 on June 16th.
SPX chart is now updated…
SPX chart is now updated from Friday’s close
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Aug 5th 150 call for 23.00. Sold for 11.90 last Wednesday. Will roll at a later time or date. Would prefer to see some stability before adding anymore to this monster.
SPX puts sold, calls closed
#SPXcampaign
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 1940/1910 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2089.
Bought to close $SPX July 14th 2170/2195 call spreads for .20. Sold for 2.20 as a roll on June 13th.
NUGT, can you take me higher?
#ContangoETFs New strikes added…
Up to 210 on the weeklys, 220 on the monthlys.
Options Expiration 7/1/16
What does the red color…
What does the red color on the SPX 5-min chart mean? Looks unfamiliar to me.
SPX condor sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open July 29th 1975/1950 put spreads for 1.30, and 2170/2195 call spreads for 2.10… full iron condor for 3.40.
And we continue to rip higher. Whenever this market decides to pullback it will be a good day for me. Meantime, I’ll manage the pain.
SKEW index remains high; bonds and gold high. New lows in UVXY.
No one sold TSLA puts?…
No one sold TSLA puts? I guess market doesn’t care about self-driving cars killing us. Soon they will rule the world and find man insignificant.
SPX roll sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 1950/1975/2150/2175 iron condors for 7.40. This is a roll from July 14th spread that was stopped yesterday.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to close $SPX July 1st 2150 short calls for .05. Sold as the 2150/2175 call spread for 3.95 on May 25th. This was an oversized position sold as a roll (14 contracts). By closing the shorts and leaving the longs in place, this released $86K in margin for today! Portfolio margin can be your friend, but it can also throw your account out of whack if you are too heavy on one side of the market. This reflects my oversized short-market position with call spreads.
