PCLN earnings analysis

#Earnings $PCLN Over last three years, Biggest UP move: 11.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.6%, Average move: 5.8%. To be outside the biggest moves, with stock at 1370.00, you’d need the 1215/1525 strangle, about 3.00. To be at the average move, the 1290/1450 strangle… about 20.00 (too risky). A condor somewhere between the max and the average may be best bets. Other thoughts?

Here is the history:
May 4, 2016 BO -7.50%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO 11.24%
Nov. 9, 2015 BO -9.56%
Aug. 5, 2015 BO 5.23%
May 7, 2015 BO -4.00%
Feb. 19, 2015 BO 8.46%
Nov. 4, 2014 BO -8.41%
Aug. 11, 2014 BO 2.16%
May 8, 2014 BO -2.09%
Feb. 20, 2014 AC 2.54%
Nov. 7, 2013 AC 4.91%
Aug. 8, 2013 AC 3.87%

TSLA earnings analysis

#Earnings Over last three years, Biggest UP move: 14.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -14.5%, Average move: 7.9%. To be outside the biggest moves, with stock at 228.46, you’d need the 195/262.5 strangle. No premium there. To be at the average move, the 210/247.5 strangle… about 2.40.
Considering the options. Maybe a wide iron fly? Iron condor at the average? Share your thoughts!

Here is the history:
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 4.73%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 11.17%
Aug. 5, 2015 AC -8.88%
May 6, 2015 AC 2.76%
Feb. 11, 2015 AC -4.66%
Nov. 5, 2014 AC 4.43%
July 31, 2014 AC 4.46%
May 7, 2014 AC -11.30%
Feb. 19, 2014 AC 8.43%
Nov. 5, 2013 AC -14.50%
Aug. 7, 2013 AC 14.34%

SPX puts closed

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2050/2025 put spreads for .40. Sold for 2.75 on July 8th. This was an over-sized position that I didn’t want to leave out there now that the market has shown some volatility. A successful roll in my build-back of call spread losses.

SPX calls closed

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 2190 calls for .05. Sold as the 2190/2215 spread for 3.10 on July 22nd. Closed for margin management only.

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2156.

UVXY calls… in play again!

#VXXGame starting in with some highest strikes:
STO UVXY Aug 26th 58 call for 1.15
STO UVXY Sep 2nd 58 call for 1.80
STO UVXY Sep 9th 58 call for 1.80
STO UVXY Oct 21st 55 call for 4.25

Only a wee-bit covered since I have only 60 shares of stock.

SPX closures

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 18th 2235/2260 call spreads for .60. Sold for 1.25 on July 18th.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2035/1985 put spreads for .60. These were told as two spreads, 2035/2010 for 1.30 on July 13th, and 2010/1985 for 1.25 on July 11th. Closing at once and a bit early to ease margin pressure should we continue dropping.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2110/2085 put spreads for 2.50. This order filled at the low tick of the day, 2166.

BMY earnings closed

#Earnings STC $BMY stock for 75.98. Sold a condor on earnings for 1.06… closed most at a small loss on Friday but kept some stock, sold now at 75.98 (cost basis about 75.60). Trade now break-even overall.

CMI earnings

#Earnings The $CMI Aug 5th 112/132 strangle is an option… Over last 3 years, CMI’s 5-day moves after ernings: Biggest UP move: 8.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -7.7% , Average move: 5.2% . Ten points OTM is about 8.2%, so some risk but a decent shot if you’re comfortable with naked options. Or you cold try a condor, maybe one strike closer, but that’s pretty low premium.

SPX trades

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2040/2115 put spreads for 1.35.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2235/2260 call spreads for .30

Happy August & good morning from San Francisco!

My wife ran the SF marathon on Sunday… new personal record: 3:22:59… 1st place among women 45-49. So proud of her! Next up: Boston marathon next April.

Options Expiration 7/29/16

#OptionsExpiration

— Expiring —
FB 105,110, 112, 113, 114, 117 covered puts
NUGT 105 put

— Assignments —
UVXY2 9 put (should put me long 20 shares for 45.00 each)
BMY 76.5 puts – kept a third of my earnings trade for stock assignment

Thanks for a fun earnings week, everyone! More to come.

Earnings this week

#Earnings 2 and 2 this week… ALXN and AMZN worked out. Scaling out now of BMY (small loss) & BA (small profit). Both dropped too much to hit the center of my condor and butterfly. But both are rallying now, so I’m squeezing…

BTC BMY July 29th 76.5 puts for 1.50 or better. Part of condor sold for 1.06
BTC BA July 29th 135 puts for 1.50 or better. Part of condor sold for 1.65

SPX puts closed

#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 2125/2100 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.24 on July 21st.

Keep on Rollin’…

#SPXcampaign Sold the following rolls to the spreads stopped immediately below this post:
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2120/2145/2200/2225 iron condors for 3.60 (1.5x position size).
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2125/2150/2195/2220 iron condors for 8.15 (1.5x position size).

I only moved one additional week out on each. Feel fairly safe about next Friday’s condor, but the following one is more aggressive (needed more premium) so may have to roll one side (hopefully not both sides!)

SPX call spreads stopped

#SPXcampaign Exited these on the last dip:
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2170 calls for 5.00. Part of 2170/2195 spreads sold for 2.10 on July 1st.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2165/2190 call spreads for 11.80. Sold for 1.45 on July 6th.

I will be rolling these.

AMZN earnings closed

#Earnings BTC $AMZN July 29th 755/745 put spread for .18. Sold yesterday for 5.00

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2174.

SPX puts closed

#SPXcampaign Forgot to cancel this order! Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2140/2115 put spreads for .15. Sold for 2.05 on July 20th.

CBOE details on SPX Monday Expirations

http://ir.cboe.com/press-releases/2016/07-11-2016-193925310.aspx

GOOGL and AMZN both pop…

GOOGL and AMZN both pop up 1 minute after close

GOOGL and/or AMZN spreads

#Earnings Selling GOOGL July 29th 765/755 put spread, hopefully for 5.00, but will take a bit less. 1:1 risk/reward for a bullish trade.

and
Sold to Open AMZN July 29th 755/745 put spread for 5.00. Same theory. Bullish on both.

AMZN earnings

#Earnings Selling an iron condor just outside the stock’s average move over last 3 years. Biggest UP move: 14.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.0%, Average move: 9.3%. Short Strikes are about 9.75% OTM. The last time the stock moved over 10% was April 2015 when stock was half its current price. It seems the moves have relaxed as the price has doubled.

Selling AMZN July 29th 660/670/815/825 condors… asking 1.85, not yet filled.

NUGT split

#ContangoETFs As discovered by @john4419, NUGT will be forward splitting 5 for 1 on August 24th. That would put today’s price at 28.40. I guess they don’t like it being so expensive… probably cuts down on the volume too much. As @Ramie77 points out, it will likely reverse split again not too long after this forward split.

This will be its first ever forward split. It has reverse split 3 times, April 2013, Aug 2013, and just recently in October 2015.

NUGT was started in late 2010, opening at a split adjusted price of $19,580. Yes, you read that right. That’s why we always bet bearish long-term on ContangoETFs.

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2200/2225 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2163. Expire in 6 trading days.

Earnings mgt

#Earnings I have three condor/butterfly trades expiring tomorrow. Only ALXN is currently in profit range, but I’m preparing for reversals if they happen.

ALXN iron condor: BTC ALXN 117 puts for .05. Leaves me with 136/142 call spread, no downside risk. Order in to close 136 short calls for .25

BMY iron condor: BTC BMY 77 calls for .02.No upside risk. Need a rally back above 76.50.

BA iron butterfly: BTC BA 135 calls for .10. No upside risk. Need a rally back above 135.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2050/2025 puts for 1.60, with SPX at 2160.

NUGT roll

#ContangoETFs Closed a call and opened a put, which released a big chunk of margin.

BTC NUGT July 29th 175 call for .50. Sold for 5.90 on June 24th
STO NUGT Aug 26th 110 put for 6.00

FB mgt

#Earnings BTC $FB July 29th 120 call for .08. Sold yesterday for 3.20.
STC July 29th 122 call for 4.50. Bought yesterday for 4.00.

Was hoping we could open around 132.00 and THEN fall here. As it is, not much chance to sell long calls yet. I dumped the near-term one; now holding others that expire in coming weeks.

SPX Expirations 7/27/16

#OptionsExpiration
$SPX 2185/2210 calls, sold last week for 1.70 (401k accounts only)
$SPX 2130/2105 puts, sold for 2.60 on July 14th

ALXN protection

#Earnings BTO ALXN July 29th 112 put for .25 and 143 call for .50. These are protection against 117/136 strangle. Net credit on trade 1.00.

NUGT call

#ContangoETFs STO NUGT Aug 26th 200 call for 7.00

BMY earnings

#Earnings Not a big mover on earnings. Slightly bullish (trend) iron condor, with a smidge better than 1:1 risk/reward:

Sold to Open $BMY July 29th 74.5/76.5/77/79 iron condor for 1.06

ALXN earnings

#Earnings Filled on ALXN trade, 117/136 strangle for 1.75.

Risk Reversals into FB earnings

#Earnings #RiskReversal #ShortStock
To protect my short stock position in $FB, I have opened several risk reversals (selling puts, buying calls). Most were opened today, but a few of the puts were sold in the past. I believe the stock is more likely to move up on earnings. If I’m right, I will lose more on the stock position but take in profits from these options. If I am wrong and it moves down, my position will be closed on Friday via put assignments.

STO $FB July 29th 120, 117, 114, 113, 112, 110, and 105 puts. Total premium collected: 10.05
BTO $FB July 29th 122 call, Aug 5th 126 call, Aug 12th 129 call, Aug 19th 132 call. Total premium spent: 8.94

All my puts expire Friday. The calls expire in the next few weeks.
Haven’t tried this before, but it is an interesting experiment.

ALXN earnings

#Earnings #ShortStrangles Asking 1.90 for ALXN July 29th 117/136 strangle. Biggest UP move: 21.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -5.5%, Average move: 5.3%. These strikes are over 7% OTM. The 21% up move is an outlier; next highest is 7.3%. If you eliminate the outlier, these strikes are outside its biggest moves.

I may add some long options as protection later.

VIX working on a steady…

VIX working on a steady uptrend since last week’s low.

NUGT put closed

#ContangoETFs BTC $NUGT Aug 12th 135 put for 13.10. Sold for 12.60 on 7/11. Small loss on this one but I’m closing it now as it is too close to the money going into Fed. I will replace this premium with a new strangle sale eventually.

Earnings candidates with sufficient volume & weeklys

#Earnings GOOGL, GOOG, AMGN, BMY, CELG, COP, GPRO, MA, NXPI, SCTY, WFM

BA trade

#Earnings Sold to Open $BA July 29th 133/135/137 iron butterfly for 1.65. Max gain 1.65, max risk .35. Betting for a small move or some back and forth into Friday. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 9.7%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.6%, Average move: 4.5%.

Anyone trading AAPL?

#Earnings Was going to skip it but now thinking of selling outs as it drops into the close.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2125/2100 put spreads for 2.75, when SPX was at 2162. Since my standard spreads for this expiry were already closed, sold this extra spread to offset call spreads that are still open.

FB put sold

#Earnings #ShortStock Sold to Open $FB Jan 29th 113 put for 1.00. I still have short stock on this so I will be selling several short puts going into this week’s earnings.

Earnings MBLY

#Earnings I have been lucky this quarter since I have not gotten filled on some trades where my call was wrong… bullish spread on MBLY was not filled and it’s looking to open down over 15%.

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2235/2260 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2167.

AAPL dumping

AAPL dumping

UVXY pre-split call

#VXXGame (Earlier) Sold to Open $UVXY2 (pre-split) Jan’18 85 call for .90. This is, in effect, the 425 strike based on the new pricing. Usually I cannot open new positions on the pre-split options, but IB allowed me earlier today. Perhaps it is because there are no post-split options yet. But alas, I cannot sell anymore so maybe it was a mistake earlier today.

Earnings today

#Earnings IV is pretty low on CAT, MCD and LVS

GILD is usually a minor mover, but last quarter it dropped 10%. That throws a wrench in the works. Maybe an iron butterfly to capture a small move but limit risk if there’s another big one.

MBLY trying for a 1:1 put spread, 49/48, bullish trading with the trend.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2040/2015 put spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2167.

SWKS stock sold

#Earnings In pre-market, sold $SWKS stock for 65.10. Shares were assigned on Friday when 65 short puts were exercised (sold for .58 on Thursday).

UVXY has split… time for volatility?

#VXXGame #markets We only get $30 out of the bugger? Why not a 1:10 split? Well, then there’s this, so maybe UVXY can hit 60 soon. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3991060-nirp-crash-indicators-stats-indicate-volatility-increase-week-ending-july-29

Options Expiration 7/22/16

#OptionsExpiration Just two assignments, that’s all…

$SWKS 65 puts, stock assigned (#Earnings)
$UVXY 10 put, stock assigned

Also, earlier in day, Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2020/1995 puts for .20. Sold for 1.40 on July 8th.

SPX call roll

#SPXcampaign #Rolling Was hoping to slip out of this spread next week, but the continued rally makes it too dangerous.

Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2165/2190 call spreads for 12.00. Sold as part of a condor-roll for 6.05 on June 30th.
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2175/2200 call spreads for 12.10.

MSFT earnings trade

#Earnings Sold to close $MSFT July 22nd 56 call for .41. This was final long call. Overall, the 51/56 long strangle (bought for .62 on Tuesday) was a small loss. I sold back the calls at varying prices, averaging .50. As usual, it is better to sell into earnings than buy!

..and more calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold these before the other two, but forgot to post:
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 2190/2215 call spreads for 3.10.

SPX spreads sold in 401K

#SPXcampaign Since the 401K accounts I manage are Reg T margin, any put spread in a given expiry can be offset by a call spread margin free. Since I have the July 27th 2130/2105 put spreads, I sold the following:

Sold to Open $SPX July 27th 2185/2210 call spreads for 1.70, with SPX at 2166.

I feel we’re hitting at resistance and any move higher will be slower. I also did NOT sell these in my main Portfolio Margin account, as margin is not calculated in the same way.

SPX calls sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.55, with SPX at 2166.

UAL trade update

#Earnings BTC UAL July 22nd 48 calls for .10. Now I have cleared away all risk and locked in about 1.35 profit. I will try to sell the long 45.5 puts remaining (one just filled for .13), and the long 50 calls if it rallies tomorrow.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2055/2030 puts for 1.30, with SPX at 2167.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 3rd 2125/2100 for 2.25, with SPX at 2167

SBUX and SWKS earnings

#Earnings A couple of naked put plays, going with the uptrends in these stocks:

Sold to Open $SWKS July 22nd 65 puts for .55. Biggest UP move: 14.1% , Biggest DOWN move: -6.9% , Average move: 6.6% . This trade is 7.7% OTM

Asking .45 for $SBUX July 22nd 55 puts. Biggest UP move: 7.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -4.9% , Average move: 2.7% . This trade is 3.8% OTM.

You could also do ATM put spreads to define your risk.

UAL earnings

#Earnings #IronCondor
On $UAL condor I covered my short puts yesterday, so I’m now replacing the premium I spent on that by selling the long puts. One for .17 and one for .20 so far. Will hold the rest for awhile in case this thing really collapses. Looks like the call spreads will expire worthless, meaning max profit on the trade; maybe higher if these long puts get juicy.

SPX puts expire & puts close

#SPXcampaign Last night, $SPX July 20th 2135/2110 put spreads expired. Sold for 1.50 last Friday.
In pre-market, bought to close $SPX July 29th 2075/2050 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.90 on July 9th.

SPX puts sold

#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX July 29th 2140/2115 put spreads for 2.05, right before bell with the small spike down to 2172.

NUGT call closed

#ContangoETFs Bought to close NUGT Aug 12th 250 call for .50. Sold for 8.10 on July 8th.
Wide bid/ask spread but I was filled immediately.

QCOM bullish play

#Earnings QCOM has gone down on last 9 earnings reports. But since the Feb lows it seems to have found its bottom and now in recovery. Carter Worth covered it on Fast Money as a bullish play. I’m making a pretty cheap play with a 57.5 call butterfly, which is about the expected move in TOS.

Bought to open QCOM 56.5/57.5/58.5 call butterflys for .15. Max loss .15, max gain .84 if pins at 57.5. Expiration breakevens 56.66 and 58.32.

UAL earnings

#Earnings Bought to close UAL July 22nd 47.5 puts for .10. This adds an additional .10 to my risk, but sets me up well if there’s a pullback into week’s end. This trade was yesterday’s sale of the 45.5/47.5/48/50 iron condor for 1.42. Now I have no downside risk.

MSFT call sold

#Earnings Filled on the exit of my first call, bought as a .62 strangle yesterday.

Sold to close $MSFT July 22nd 56 call for .65. Liquidating more at .75

SPX ITM calls sold

#SPXcampaign This completes my roll from the ITM call spread that was stopped Friday. I sold these in three batches: 11.80, 12.50, and 14.10

Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12 2160/2185 call spreads for 14.10, with SPX at 2172.

Again, this is NOT the best way to play this strategy… but I got stuck with too many call spreads after Brexit and now am managing ATM & ITM rolls until we get a significant pullback. If no pullback comes, I will be rolling mysteries higher until I’m out.

NUGT roll

#ContangoETFs Avoiding going ITM on this one…

BTC NUGT Aug 5th 135 put for 15.00. Sold for 11.60 on 7/6
STO NUGT Aug 26th 100/180 strangle for 15.34

Earnings results

#Earnings MSFT higher but not enough for a juicy profit. Will try to sell half the calls at open.
UAL perfectly flat… hope it stays that way until Friday! Will try to close half with profit today and ride the rest into expiration.

UAL earnings… back to selling

#Earnings This one is the opposite of MSFT… a couple of outlier larger moves, but a low average move: Over last 12 earnings: Biggest UP move: 4.5% , Biggest DOWN move: -9.8% , Average move: 2.4% .

Sold to Open $UAL July 22nd 45.5/47.5/48/50 iron condors for 1.42. Risking .58 to make 1.42 max. This will give an expiration break-even at +/- 3%. Even if there’s a bigger move tomorrow we have until Friday to drift back toward the mean.

MSFT earnings – I’m buying???

#Earnings Inspired by @thomberg1201‘s trade on NFLX yesterday, trying a long options play on MSFT. It used to be dead money but has perked up over last few years with some decent moves. Over last 12 quarters, Biggest UP move: 10.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.4%, Average move: 5.7%. So, taking a cheap shot to collect tomorrow AM:

Bought to open 51/56 strangles for .62. Requires a 4.7% move of 2.50 to hit either strike, which is below the average move above. I don’t remember last time I bought options on earnings, but this one seemed like a reasonable chance. I will look to sell half or all of the profitable side on the morning bell.

NUGT puts closed

#ContangoETFs Closing a couple at better than 85%, paving way to sell more on bigger moves
BTC NUGT Sep 35 put for .20. Sold for 1.80 on June 3rd
BTC NUGT Aug 5th 80 put for .40. Sold for 3.90 on June 29th