#Earnings #Assignment I was assigned $LOW stock last night from my 79.5/81.5/83.5 iron butterfly…. kind of unusual to be assigned from short puts that are part of a spread, but it happened to about 3/4’s of my position. Today I sold the long puts for 2.92, so combined with the 1.48 at which I sold the IBF, my cost basis on the stock is 77.10. A reasonable position. I may sell the remainder of the longs and take the rest of the stock on Friday.
Author Archives: Jeff
LOW and PCLN earnings
#Earnings $LOW has made an above average move down, making my chances to profit from 81.5 IB pretty slim. Closing the 8.15 short calls for .01, just in case we get a nice rally into Friday.
$PCLN, I have two 20-point IB’s, centered at 1360 and 1370, sold before earnings. These look to be a bust as it started rallying yesterday. Will let these expire and execute for max loss, about 1.30.
$RGLD, I have the 87.5/85 put spread. My only hope was another gold rally off the Fed, which has happened last few times and may have started just now. Still a lot to hope for to get to 87.5.
So, small wins with DIS and REGN, but that’s 2 for 5 on August earnings trades. At least losses are defined!
NUGT put
#ContangoETFs STO $NUGT Sept 9th 120 put for 5.90
PCLN rallying
PCLN rallying
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 2230/2255 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.45 on July 29th.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open Aug 26th 2150/2125 put spreads for 2.70, with SPX at 2179. An extra short-termer offsetting calls I previously sold at this expiration.
LOW earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $LOW Aug 19th 79.5/81.5/83.5 iron butterfly for 1.48. Max risk .52. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 6.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.2%, Average move: 3.0%. Price needs to be at less than a 2% move in either direction by Friday’s close to profit.
HAIN in pain
#FallingKnife trade, anyone? Or more like falling anvil?
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open Sept 15th 2075/2050 put spreads for 1.60, with SPX at 2180.
Earnings candidates
#Earnings
$AAP – iron butterfly or tight condor
$HAIN – see @thomberg1201 post below
$HD – not a big mover but trend is up
SPX calls sold / puts closed
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 15th 2245/2270 call spreads for 1.65, with SPX at 2190.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 26th 2050/2025 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.60 on July 28th.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign In pre-market, Bought to Close $SPX Aug 26th 2040/2015 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on July 25th.
SPX monster
#SPXcampaign This morning I was a rolling fool. I have been managing my way (slowly) out of call spreads that were (and are being) crushed. It will either take a few months or one decent pullback to get me out. I’m being patient and aggressive at the same time.
And I’m using the experience to understand how to roll ITM. It is not as difficult as I thought, save for the fact that you experience large drawdowns and heavy margin requirements. But veterans of #VXXGame know all about that!
Bought to close $SPX Aug 18th 2130/2155 call spreads for 23.20. Sold as a roll for 6.35 on June 28th.
Rolled to: $SPX Aug 24th 2135/2160 call spreads for 21.50, and Aug 31st 2140/2115 put spreads for 2.45.
Here I am trying to do just a one-week roll, while moving one strike higher. Thinking is that whenever a correction comes, my call spread will drain of value more quickly with a near-dated spread. PLUS, near-dated actually have more spread premium than further ones (due to bigger difference between short and long strikes). Also added a slightly further-out put spread to bring in a credit on the roll.
Sold to Open Sept 9th 2080/2055 put spreads for 1.30, standard weekly spread.
Sold to Open Aug 24th 2140/2115 put spreads. Roll spread to offset calls sold earlier this week.
Good news is I have 2195/2220 calls and 2150/2125 puts expiring today. This was a similar roll two weeks ago from a partially ITM spread… so I can get out of these suckers!
I got busy this week and have not updated the SPX Chart… will do before Monday.
DIS earnings closed
#Earnings BTC $DIS Aug 12th 96.5 calls for 1.08 (avg price). Sold as part of iron butterfly for 1.58 on Tuesday. Small profit, but profit nonetheless.
Party like it’s…
Yesterday was the first time since December 31, 1999, that the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed at record highs on the same day.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to open $SPX Aug 31st 2210/2235 call spreads for 3.60, as a partial roll from stopped ITM spreads. We continue the grind higher, but it is slow enough that call spreads are working well, even fairly close to the money.
RGLD earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $RGLD Aug 19th 87.5/85 put spreads for 1.25. A partially ITM bullish spread, playing the trend and gold bullishness. Also, if it drops on earnings, it will have 10 days to recover. 1:1 risk/reward.
SPX call spread closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 18th 2225/2250 call spreads for .20. Sold for 1.55 on July 22nd.
UVXY closed
#VXXGame, earlier at the opening low, BTC UVXY Sept 9th 58 call for .34. Sold for 1.80 on Aug 2.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign One standard campaign spread and one partial roll
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 2060/2035 puts for 1.25, with SPX at 2176.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2125/2100 puts for 2.75, with SPX at 2178.
SKEW is up
For the first time since June, the SKEW went above 135.00 yesterday. SKEW is often a predictor of corrections (readings above 135) or rallies (below 120). On this chart, SKEW is in red, SPY in yellow. You can see a pop to 140 preceded the late June pullback from Brexit.
DIS Earnings
#Earnings Sold to Open $DIS Aug 12th 94.5/96.5/98.5 iron butterfly for 1.58. Over last 3 years, Biggest UP move: 7.6%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.2%, Average move: 3.3%. This trade profits best if DIS ends week with less than a 2% move either direction.
Max risk .42.
DIS earnings, looking at iron…
DIS earnings, looking at iron butterfly, 2 points on either side
NUGT call closed
#ContangoETFs BTC NUGT Aug 19th 200 call for 1.95 to free up margin. Sold for 16.20 on July 1st.
SPX rolls
#SPXcampaign These are the rolls I’ve been dreading. In a case of bad timing, I didn’t close when we hit lows last week and got stuck closing at new highs. I would be holding through this if expiration was any later. I will be piecing together enough rolls to make up the loss.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2160/2185 call spreads for 19.95. Partially rolled:
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2175/2200 call spreads for 14.40.
Long Volatility
#VXXGame Inspired by @optioniceman‘s last post and the new VIX low, I am selling some SVXY calls for the first time in probably a year and also buying some VIX calls:
BTO $VIX Sept 20th 14 calls for 1.80
STO $SVXY Dec 95 calls for 3.50
STO $SVXY Jan ’17 105 calls for 2.50
Earlier:
BTC $UVXY Aug 19th 60 call for .02. Sold last Tuesday for .60
BTC $UVXY Aug 26th 58 call for .12. Sold Last Tuesday for 1.15
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 9th 2240-2265 call spreads for 1.35, with SPX at all-time high of 2186.
Selling these normal campaign spreads 30 days out around 10-delta has been working fine for weeks. I am still dealing with ATM and ITM rolled spreads that are the tough part. More on that to follow.
Highs and Lows
This is similar to the post I put up last Friday:
New all-time $SPX high
New all-time $NDX high
All time lows in $VXX and $UVXY
New 50-week high in $SVXY
New 52-week low in $VIX
VXX game closes after the bell
#VXXGame After the bell, these two closing orders filled:
BTC SVXY Jan 2017 30 put for 1.40. Sold for 7.05 on Jan 6th of 2015
BTC UVXY Sept 2nd 58 call for .28. Sold for 1.50 last Tuesday.
CHTR earnings
#Earnings Following trade is VOIDED. Mistake on entry; I did not get these prices so I’m closing for a small loss now, not worth the risk.
Sold to Open $CHTR Aug 12th 215/220/250/255 iron condors for 1.70. Over last 3 years: Biggest 5-DAY UP move: 5.5%, Biggest DOWN move: -8.0%, Average 5-day move: 3.9%. This trade is about 6.3% OTM on each side.
Options Expiration 8/5/16
#OptionsExpiration
–Expiring–
$NUGT 120 put
$SPX 2145/2120 put spreads
$SPX 2125/2100 put spreads
Also, at the close, STO NUGT Sept 2nd 105 put for 3.10.
New VIX 52-week low was…
New VIX 52-week low was just hit
Highs and Lows
New all-time $SPX high
New 52-week $RUT high
All time lows in $VXX and $UVXY
Today’s low so far .05 above 52-week low in $VIX
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign
In pre-market, Bought to close Aug 12th 2080/2055 put spreads for .20. Sold as part of a condor-roll on July 15th.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 18th 2040/2015 put spreads for .20. Sold for 1.30 on July 19th.
Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.60. I sold this spread on Monday as well… wanted to use the 2230 short for my second spread, but since I could only get about 1.10, I just doubled up on the 2225.
@fuzzballl, did Dan exit his…
@fuzzballl, did Dan exit his $FEYE trade before it tanked just now?
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Earlier I closed the Aug 5th 2200 calls for .05 to clear up margin. A double-sized position that was sold as part of the 2200/2225 spread in two phases: for 1.30 on July 28th, and last week as part of a condor-roll for 1.49.
REGN double diagonal closed
#Earnings Sold to Close $REGN Aug 5th 420/460 Aug 18th 410/470 double diagonal for 3.00. Bought yesterday for 1.40. A double on this, but thought it might do much better. Premium dropped more than I expected out of the Aug 18th long options.
PCLN were moved to TONIGHT…
PCLN earnings were moved to TONIGHT after close
PCLN, TSLA, REGN
#Earnings Looking like a good morning for neutral trades on earnings… not much movement. I love the smell of IV-suck in the morning.
VIX Indicator and SPX Position…
VIX Indicator and SPX Position Chart are updated. Have a good evening everyone!
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 24th 2200/2225 call spreads for 2.80, with SPX at 2163.
PCLN iron butterfly
#Earnings Sold to Open $PCLN Aug 19th 1340/1360/1380 iron butterfly for 18.75.
This trade will profit if PCLN is between 1341 and 1378 two weeks from Friday. It will also be possible to leg out of there are any wild swings between now and then. Low probability, low risk (max risk 1.25). If it moves big tomorrow, it will then have time to drift back to the mean.
REGN earnings double diagonal
#Earnings Bought to open a double diagonal on REGN for earnings for 1.40.
Sold Aug 5th 420/460 strangle for 9.30.
Bought Aug 18th 410/470 strangle for 10.70.
This gives 6% downside and 8% upside for breakevens, assuming exiting full trade by this Friday (trade was entered earlier when REGN was higher). Max gain and risk depend on IV drop tomorrow, but looks to be about risking 1.2 to make 1.
Over last three years on earnings: Biggest UP move: 7.4%, Biggest DOWN move: -6.3%, Average move: 4.1%.
PCLN earnings analysis
#Earnings $PCLN Over last three years, Biggest UP move: 11.2%, Biggest DOWN move: -9.6%, Average move: 5.8%. To be outside the biggest moves, with stock at 1370.00, you’d need the 1215/1525 strangle, about 3.00. To be at the average move, the 1290/1450 strangle… about 20.00 (too risky). A condor somewhere between the max and the average may be best bets. Other thoughts?
Here is the history:
May 4, 2016 BO -7.50%
Feb. 17, 2016 BO 11.24%
Nov. 9, 2015 BO -9.56%
Aug. 5, 2015 BO 5.23%
May 7, 2015 BO -4.00%
Feb. 19, 2015 BO 8.46%
Nov. 4, 2014 BO -8.41%
Aug. 11, 2014 BO 2.16%
May 8, 2014 BO -2.09%
Feb. 20, 2014 AC 2.54%
Nov. 7, 2013 AC 4.91%
Aug. 8, 2013 AC 3.87%
TSLA earnings analysis
#Earnings Over last three years, Biggest UP move: 14.3%, Biggest DOWN move: -14.5%, Average move: 7.9%. To be outside the biggest moves, with stock at 228.46, you’d need the 195/262.5 strangle. No premium there. To be at the average move, the 210/247.5 strangle… about 2.40.
Considering the options. Maybe a wide iron fly? Iron condor at the average? Share your thoughts!
Here is the history:
May 4, 2016 AC -4.95%
Feb. 10, 2016 AC 4.73%
Nov. 3, 2015 AC 11.17%
Aug. 5, 2015 AC -8.88%
May 6, 2015 AC 2.76%
Feb. 11, 2015 AC -4.66%
Nov. 5, 2014 AC 4.43%
July 31, 2014 AC 4.46%
May 7, 2014 AC -11.30%
Feb. 19, 2014 AC 8.43%
Nov. 5, 2013 AC -14.50%
Aug. 7, 2013 AC 14.34%
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2050/2025 put spreads for .40. Sold for 2.75 on July 8th. This was an over-sized position that I didn’t want to leave out there now that the market has shown some volatility. A successful roll in my build-back of call spread losses.
SPX calls closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 2190 calls for .05. Sold as the 2190/2215 spread for 3.10 on July 22nd. Closed for margin management only.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2225/2250 call spreads for 1.40, with SPX at 2156.
UVXY calls… in play again!
#VXXGame starting in with some highest strikes:
STO UVXY Aug 26th 58 call for 1.15
STO UVXY Sep 2nd 58 call for 1.80
STO UVXY Sep 9th 58 call for 1.80
STO UVXY Oct 21st 55 call for 4.25
Only a wee-bit covered since I have only 60 shares of stock.
SPX closures
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 18th 2235/2260 call spreads for .60. Sold for 1.25 on July 18th.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2035/1985 put spreads for .60. These were told as two spreads, 2035/2010 for 1.30 on July 13th, and 2010/1985 for 1.25 on July 11th. Closing at once and a bit early to ease margin pressure should we continue dropping.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 18th 2110/2085 put spreads for 2.50. This order filled at the low tick of the day, 2166.
BMY earnings closed
#Earnings STC $BMY stock for 75.98. Sold a condor on earnings for 1.06… closed most at a small loss on Friday but kept some stock, sold now at 75.98 (cost basis about 75.60). Trade now break-even overall.
CMI earnings
#Earnings The $CMI Aug 5th 112/132 strangle is an option… Over last 3 years, CMI’s 5-day moves after ernings: Biggest UP move: 8.6% , Biggest DOWN move: -7.7% , Average move: 5.2% . Ten points OTM is about 8.2%, so some risk but a decent shot if you’re comfortable with naked options. Or you cold try a condor, maybe one strike closer, but that’s pretty low premium.
SPX trades
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Sept 2nd 2040/2115 put spreads for 1.35.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 12th 2235/2260 call spreads for .30
Happy August & good morning from San Francisco!
My wife ran the SF marathon on Sunday… new personal record: 3:22:59… 1st place among women 45-49. So proud of her! Next up: Boston marathon next April.
Options Expiration 7/29/16
— Expiring —
FB 105,110, 112, 113, 114, 117 covered puts
NUGT 105 put
— Assignments —
UVXY2 9 put (should put me long 20 shares for 45.00 each)
BMY 76.5 puts – kept a third of my earnings trade for stock assignment
Thanks for a fun earnings week, everyone! More to come.
Earnings this week
#Earnings 2 and 2 this week… ALXN and AMZN worked out. Scaling out now of BMY (small loss) & BA (small profit). Both dropped too much to hit the center of my condor and butterfly. But both are rallying now, so I’m squeezing…
BTC BMY July 29th 76.5 puts for 1.50 or better. Part of condor sold for 1.06
BTC BA July 29th 135 puts for 1.50 or better. Part of condor sold for 1.65
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Bought to close $SPX Aug 3rd 2125/2100 put spreads for .20. Sold for 2.24 on July 21st.
Keep on Rollin’…
#SPXcampaign Sold the following rolls to the spreads stopped immediately below this post:
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2120/2145/2200/2225 iron condors for 3.60 (1.5x position size).
Sold to Open $SPX Aug 12th 2125/2150/2195/2220 iron condors for 8.15 (1.5x position size).
I only moved one additional week out on each. Feel fairly safe about next Friday’s condor, but the following one is more aggressive (needed more premium) so may have to roll one side (hopefully not both sides!)
SPX call spreads stopped
#SPXcampaign Exited these on the last dip:
Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2170 calls for 5.00. Part of 2170/2195 spreads sold for 2.10 on July 1st.
Bought to close $SPX Aug 5th 2165/2190 call spreads for 11.80. Sold for 1.45 on July 6th.
I will be rolling these.
AMZN earnings closed
#Earnings BTC $AMZN July 29th 755/745 put spread for .18. Sold yesterday for 5.00
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2230/2255 call spreads for 1.45, with SPX at 2174.
SPX puts closed
#SPXcampaign Forgot to cancel this order! Bought to close $SPX July 29th 2140/2115 put spreads for .15. Sold for 2.05 on July 20th.
CBOE details on SPX Monday Expirations
http://ir.cboe.com/press-releases/2016/07-11-2016-193925310.aspx
GOOGL and AMZN both pop…
GOOGL and AMZN both pop up 1 minute after close
GOOGL and/or AMZN spreads
#Earnings Selling GOOGL July 29th 765/755 put spread, hopefully for 5.00, but will take a bit less. 1:1 risk/reward for a bullish trade.
and
Sold to Open AMZN July 29th 755/745 put spread for 5.00. Same theory. Bullish on both.
AMZN earnings
#Earnings Selling an iron condor just outside the stock’s average move over last 3 years. Biggest UP move: 14.1%, Biggest DOWN move: -11.0%, Average move: 9.3%. Short Strikes are about 9.75% OTM. The last time the stock moved over 10% was April 2015 when stock was half its current price. It seems the moves have relaxed as the price has doubled.
Selling AMZN July 29th 660/670/815/825 condors… asking 1.85, not yet filled.
NUGT split
#ContangoETFs As discovered by @john4419, NUGT will be forward splitting 5 for 1 on August 24th. That would put today’s price at 28.40. I guess they don’t like it being so expensive… probably cuts down on the volume too much. As @Ramie77 points out, it will likely reverse split again not too long after this forward split.
This will be its first ever forward split. It has reverse split 3 times, April 2013, Aug 2013, and just recently in October 2015.
NUGT was started in late 2010, opening at a split adjusted price of $19,580. Yes, you read that right. That’s why we always bet bearish long-term on ContangoETFs.
SPX calls sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 5th 2200/2225 call spreads for 1.30, with SPX at 2163. Expire in 6 trading days.
Earnings mgt
#Earnings I have three condor/butterfly trades expiring tomorrow. Only ALXN is currently in profit range, but I’m preparing for reversals if they happen.
ALXN iron condor: BTC ALXN 117 puts for .05. Leaves me with 136/142 call spread, no downside risk. Order in to close 136 short calls for .25
BMY iron condor: BTC BMY 77 calls for .02.No upside risk. Need a rally back above 76.50.
BA iron butterfly: BTC BA 135 calls for .10. No upside risk. Need a rally back above 135.
SPX puts sold
#SPXcampaign Sold to Open $SPX Aug 26th 2050/2025 puts for 1.60, with SPX at 2160.
NUGT roll
#ContangoETFs Closed a call and opened a put, which released a big chunk of margin.
BTC NUGT July 29th 175 call for .50. Sold for 5.90 on June 24th
STO NUGT Aug 26th 110 put for 6.00
FB mgt
#Earnings BTC $FB July 29th 120 call for .08. Sold yesterday for 3.20.
STC July 29th 122 call for 4.50. Bought yesterday for 4.00.
Was hoping we could open around 132.00 and THEN fall here. As it is, not much chance to sell long calls yet. I dumped the near-term one; now holding others that expire in coming weeks.
SPX Expirations 7/27/16
#OptionsExpiration
$SPX 2185/2210 calls, sold last week for 1.70 (401k accounts only)
$SPX 2130/2105 puts, sold for 2.60 on July 14th
ALXN protection
#Earnings BTO ALXN July 29th 112 put for .25 and 143 call for .50. These are protection against 117/136 strangle. Net credit on trade 1.00.
